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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 23:31 - 20 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

c-m wrote:
Rogerborg wrote:
Given the slump in new licensees, €conomic meltdown, the pending licensing regime, nanny chips, and Euro 4 / 5, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see one (or more) of the big Japanese manufacturers just throw in the towel and walk away from the UK / EU. At some point the volume will just be too low cover their costs, no matter how high they crank the unit prices (while the Chinese push prices in the 125 sector down).


I doubt that (and hopefully i'm right). The EU is the richest trading block in the world. None have walked away from the USA despite then having to cripple bikes for California.


Mmm. California motorcycle emissions laws are significantly laxer than even Euro 3, let alone 4 or 5. California also has a laughably easy test compared to Euro licenses, and I believe that's one of the 'harder' ones - there's essentially no real barrier to entry into biking in the USA.

Contrast that to the UK and the other parts of the EU that actually care about Directives. We saw what happened when the 2 part test came in here - new licensees halved. If the the 3DLD makes it worse (and I can't see it making it any better) plus Brussels keeps making it clear how much they detest bikes, then we might be in a new ballgame.

It's more of a nagging suspicion at the moment, but there are more manufacturers chasing less business, and if the long term trend looks to be downwards then it might be hard to justify eating a loss now in the hope of turning it around later.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 11:59 - 23 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

When?

Before 3DLD licenses come in?

Before Euro 4 and Euro 5 emissions standards remove half the bikes from the market?

Before anti-tampering, mandatory ABS and nanny chips on every bike - from 50cc mopeds up - push prices even higher and drown the aftermarket in the bath?

Before compulsory hi-vis, because where Le Frogs lead, Brussels follows?

To clarify, I meant the new 2 part mod1/mod2 test introduced in April 2009 - the number of new licensees halved after that came in, and haven't come back up again.

I want there to be a peak, I'm just not seeing an opportunity for it to happen, or any indication that things are going to get better for biking rather than worse until at least 2020 or so.
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c-m
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PostPosted: 12:31 - 23 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:

To clarify, I meant the new 2 part mod1/mod2 test introduced in April 2009 - the number of new licensees halved after that came in, and haven't come back up again.


I'm curious as to where this source of figures came form, as despite searching I haven't been able to find any
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 13:36 - 23 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

DfT stats.

2007-2008 58520 passes
2008-2009 (old style) 71155 passes
2009-2010 (new style) 26474 mod 2 passes
2010-2011 34484 mod 2 passes
2011- up a bit more so far.

So, I recant, numbers are starting to recover (huzzah), but are still quite a bit down on the 2007-2008 level.

A return to the single test at the end of this year should help, but then we'll be into the 3DLD categories, and that could go either way, depending on whether we give direct access to A2 at 19 without an A1 pass.
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c-m
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PostPosted: 14:09 - 23 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doesn't look good does it.

Though we can only speculate as to the affect.

Which has made things worse? The recession in 2008/09 and on going economic doom and gloom, or the new test. Would numbers have remained the same if it wasn't for the recession? In spite of the recession, would number have dwindled due to the new test?

Who knows, however combined they've certainly been detrimental.
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Bomberman
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PostPosted: 14:22 - 23 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shame 2005-2006 isn't up there, as 2007-2008 could still be artificially inflated due to people getting it done prior to the new test system.
I don't think those figures actually look too bad. 20,000 over the 5 months they have data on for 2011-2012 - that suggests it'll reach 40k for this year. Still on the up at least. That would be nice to compare to 2005/6 for a clearer picture.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 14:23 - 23 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi

True. Also possible that the high figures for 2008/9 were due to people getting their test done in advance of the changes, and also that the recovery for 2011 is also due to people getting their tests out of the way in advance of further changes to the test.

All the best

Keith
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c-m
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PostPosted: 14:35 - 23 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:
Hi

True. Also possible that the high figures for 2008/9 were due to people getting their test done in advance of the changes, and also that the recovery for 2011 is also due to people getting their tests out of the way in advance of further changes to the test.

All the best

Keith


This is exactly what I did. Took my test in 2008 to avoid the new test
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 14:51 - 23 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:
Also possible that the high figures for 2008/9 were due to people getting their test done in advance of the changes


Agreed, 2008-2009 was likely a rush of people getting it done under the old system, but note that the rise in 2009-2010 was less than the drop in 2010-2011 (both relative to 2008-2009) so it was a genuine drop, not just tests being done earlier.

OK, 2007-2008 may have been inflated as well, but I doubt it because (IMO) there doesn't seem to be that much lead time between new regulations coming in and them entering the biker Zeitgeist. There's no Biker Bat Signal that we can light up to warn Learners that the times they are a changing.

Likewise, I don't personally believe that the 2011 rise is due to the 3DLD since it's only just been broken in MCN. It seems to have been news to most of the new riders posting over the last year. Which is actually a good thing, a sustained natural rise is what we're after.

Jim, I do hope that you're right. I'm just a gobby noob with an interest in the legislative process, and I'm sure we'll look back on this in a decade or so from our techno-babble bikes and laugh about how primitive things were in the Before Times, when we were trusted to change a sprocket ourselves.

Personally, very few of the proposed issues will directly effect me anyway, it's just that I'd rather see bike numbers healthy and rising. More bikers means more choice of bikes, more political clout and better perception of us on the road.
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fatpies
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PostPosted: 17:30 - 24 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:


A return to the single test at the end of this year should help, but then we'll be into the 3DLD categories, and that could go either way, depending on whether we give direct access to A2 at 19 without an A1 pass.



Meh all this tinkering sounds a lot like the BPA tbh

Ah lets improve safety and training by introducing yet another qualification sticker and more hoops to jump through*

*Which conveniently lets us bleed skydiving students to death with constant fees and payments.

And the BPA wonder why they lose 99.99% of their A and B certs every year.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 02:43 - 25 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:
Rogerborg wrote:

Personally, very few of the proposed issues will directly effect me anyway, it's just that I'd rather see bike numbers healthy and rising. More bikers means more choice of bikes, more political clout and better perception of us on the road.


Fair enough.
It's just that I do feel that these rumours of legislation get blown out of all proportion.
I've started a thread on this very forum asking for someone to post up evidence from an official source that hi viz is going to become mandatory in France.
It worries me that we just seem to be accepting what the likes of MCN and MAG are telling us without question.
Last time I checked, it had been read by 160 people with not one reply.
I've done it on other forums too with the same result.
What I reckon will happen is that the laws will not come to pass, and MAG will then claim a victory for defeating legislation that was never going to be implemented anyway.
We're none the wiser because we just took their word for it.
If I'm wrong, then fine, so it should be easy to post up a link to the new legislation from an official source.


The French legislation regarding hi-viz, the decret (type of law) was passed and signed on the 3rd January 2012 and will come into force on 1st January 2013. The legal reference which will allow you to get a copy of this law (or just google it) is NOR : IOCA1126729D N°2012-3

The precise legal text can be found here... https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/affichTexte.do?cidTexte=JORFTEXT000025083522&dateTexte&categorieLien=id

The reality is there is a massive amount of campaigning behind the scenes in order to stop stupid people passing stupid laws affecting you, me and every other biker out there. We all need to contribute to fight against the nonsense spouted by the political classes and if we stand together, we have the power to do so. If you want a reminder of this, try riding through France next year without a hi-viz jacket and you will be able to personally see how annoying it is to be stopped and fined (or have your bike confiscated) for a ridiculous law. Or maybe you can just wait until it hits us in the UK after being passed in Brussels.
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drzsta
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PostPosted: 22:00 - 31 Jan 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder what will happen to the stock in there, if it will be an open sale. I would really like a new cost price bike Laughing
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st3v3
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PostPosted: 01:02 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
McJamweasel wrote:
I think that it shows that the 'pile 'em high & sell 'em cheap' method doesn't quite stack up anymore.


It's beginning to look like they'd adopted a "We're making a loss on every bike, but look how many we're selling!" strategy. Doh!



McJamweasel wrote:
I'd be surprised if someone doesn't buy them up and carry on though.


I'd be more surprised if anyone does. Who's going to bankroll it, with sales in the toilet? If they couldn't shift stock even at knockdown prices, what would a new owner do differently? A free Albanian lap dancer on the pillion of every new bike?
I have no idea who 'they' are, never heard of them in my 7 years of having a licence - but enough people in this 1 thread on this 1 forum have said ow much they've spent per trip in stores, so with a little higher price tags they could be bankrolled again.

I recently got a new front wheel and new tyre as one unit for my bike off Ebay for less than £30 inc P+P, my local trusty bike shop couldn't do a single tyre for less than £65, so while I feel bad for going online I don't mind keeping my bike afloat while i'm not flush - knowing that when I am again Il be back at the shop comfortably parting with the readies for the service.

Infinity are still around, is that just a 'North' outfit?
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fatpies
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PostPosted: 01:21 - 02 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

st3v3 wrote:

I recently got a new front wheel and new tyre as one unit for my bike off Ebay for less than £30 inc P+P, my local trusty bike shop couldn't do a single tyre for less than £65, so while I feel bad for going online I don't mind keeping my bike afloat while i'm not flush - knowing that when I am again Il be back at the shop comfortably parting with the readies for the service.

Infinity are still around, is that just a 'North' outfit?


Don't feel bad, the fact is a fairly large % of the sticker price that you see in brick and mortar shops is not profiteering or for the product itself. It is to pay the heavy overheads imposed by our high cost society.

Look at Manchester George whites.

https://www.2010.voa.gov.uk/rli/en/basic/find/valuation/2010/9061835000/8434374000

For every 1 square metre they had to pay £185.00/m2 in extortion tax to the government. To pay for public sector pensions and stuff. Thats £62,000 before you've even made a penny.

How much do they make on each new or used bike sale? £500? Thats 128 bikes sold before they even make a penny.

And that doesn't include the rent.
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moshi
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PostPosted: 16:09 - 04 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is quite interesting all be it sad for the staff involved...

It seems the larger 'official uk' bike dealers struggle to stay in business within the UK...

We've had:

Motorcycle City
Carnell
Fowlers (who then sold all their remote stores to)
Bikes UK
and now, George White

Is it just mismanagement on their behalf's, expenditure/income or are the kick backs from the manufacturers not enough when they are competing against the grey and parallel dealers?
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 20:01 - 04 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Essentially, it's that bike sales have fallen year on year since 2008, and not by a little, by a lot. 125s and scooters are holding up, but everything else is down. Suzuki's sales have halved since 2009.

We're not buying bikes, banks aren't letting anyone run up overdrafts and there just isn't the money around to support big chintzy showrooms.
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daemonoid
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PostPosted: 20:04 - 04 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:
Hi

True. Also possible that the high figures for 2008/9 were due to people getting their test done in advance of the changes, and also that the recovery for 2011 is also due to people getting their tests out of the way in advance of further changes to the test.

All the best

Keith


I can guarantee at least one of those was for that reason... me!
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st3v3
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PostPosted: 20:14 - 04 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:


We're not buying bikes, banks aren't letting anyone run up overdrafts and there just isn't the money around to support big chintzy showrooms.
Given the rules and reg's en-route it's hardly surprising, my dad had ridden bikes for years before I was born, licence wasn't so much an issue back then, he freely admits he wasn't quite legal.

He has more experiene then me, and half the chaps here but he'll never go through a test because of the sily red tape these days.

He wants to hop on a bike and show what he can do from experience, not pansy to what some power tripping pleb with a radio and clipboard deems he has to, to make him happy for half an hour.

Many of the younger generation will be put off too, but DAS is unnaffected (the cause of about half of bike accident statistics). My brother has always shown interest in bikes like me, he turns 16 this year and I was gonna set him up with a moped, but as it stands he won't want to do a test when he's old enough. ...and he's not in it for the 'cool/rebel' biker image, he actually loves bikes - the rest of the youth will be less motivated.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 10:00 - 11 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:
the days of the pile em high and sell em cheap mega stores are coming to an end.


If George White couldn't sell bikes at knockdown prices (and they demonstrably couldn't), why will buyers suddenly decide that we're prepared to pay more at Honest Abdul's Bikes and Kebabs? I can't see any inherent merit in being small, inefficient and expensive.

My local dealers are (reportedly) a cower of shunts and I was actually looking forward to a George White opening in Edinburgh just to give them some serious competition.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 18:53 - 11 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:

If George White couldn't sell bikes at knockdown prices (and they demonstrably couldn't)


They could, just not enough to get enough of the bulk bonuses that they needed to survive.

All the best

Keith
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 22:35 - 11 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

George Whites Swindon were the only major bike selling house I was totally happy with their support. 2 bikes bought from them. Servicing done in garage where you can watch it being done. Delivered when they said at a grand cheaper than my local bike shop would.

I love(d) George Whites
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