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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Karma :
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Posted: 23:31 - 20 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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c-m wrote: | Rogerborg wrote: | Given the slump in new licensees, €conomic meltdown, the pending licensing regime, nanny chips, and Euro 4 / 5, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see one (or more) of the big Japanese manufacturers just throw in the towel and walk away from the UK / EU. At some point the volume will just be too low cover their costs, no matter how high they crank the unit prices (while the Chinese push prices in the 125 sector down).
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I doubt that (and hopefully i'm right). The EU is the richest trading block in the world. None have walked away from the USA despite then having to cripple bikes for California. |
Mmm. California motorcycle emissions laws are significantly laxer than even Euro 3, let alone 4 or 5. California also has a laughably easy test compared to Euro licenses, and I believe that's one of the 'harder' ones - there's essentially no real barrier to entry into biking in the USA.
Contrast that to the UK and the other parts of the EU that actually care about Directives. We saw what happened when the 2 part test came in here - new licensees halved. If the the 3DLD makes it worse (and I can't see it making it any better) plus Brussels keeps making it clear how much they detest bikes, then we might be in a new ballgame.
It's more of a nagging suspicion at the moment, but there are more manufacturers chasing less business, and if the long term trend looks to be downwards then it might be hard to justify eating a loss now in the hope of turning it around later. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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junglejim |
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junglejim Banned
Joined: 20 Jan 2012 Karma :
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Posted: 04:39 - 23 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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Rogerborg wrote: | It's more of a nagging suspicion at the moment, but there are more manufacturers chasing less business, and if the long term trend looks to be downwards then it might be hard to justify eating a loss now in the hope of turning it around later. |
Biking is one of those things that always goes in peaks and troughs.
I didn't know the two part test (which I did in 1983), halved licences, but it sure as hell didn't kill of biking, as many doom and gloom merchants predicted it would.
Go back further, when helmets became law and the likes of MAG were claiming that this was the death knell for biking.
Er yeah, OK
Fast forward to the introduction of CBT, and the MCN rants about how this was victimising bikers and putting off newcomers.
Can anyone here really argue that having compulsory training for new riders is a bad thing.
Point being that with biking, adversity comes with the territory.
We'll get over it, just as we have countless times in the past. |
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Karma :
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Posted: 11:59 - 23 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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When?
Before 3DLD licenses come in?
Before Euro 4 and Euro 5 emissions standards remove half the bikes from the market?
Before anti-tampering, mandatory ABS and nanny chips on every bike - from 50cc mopeds up - push prices even higher and drown the aftermarket in the bath?
Before compulsory hi-vis, because where Le Frogs lead, Brussels follows?
To clarify, I meant the new 2 part mod1/mod2 test introduced in April 2009 - the number of new licensees halved after that came in, and haven't come back up again.
I want there to be a peak, I'm just not seeing an opportunity for it to happen, or any indication that things are going to get better for biking rather than worse until at least 2020 or so. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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c-m |
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c-m World Chat Champion
Joined: 12 May 2006 Karma :
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Karma :
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Posted: 13:36 - 23 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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DfT stats.
2007-2008 58520 passes
2008-2009 (old style) 71155 passes
2009-2010 (new style) 26474 mod 2 passes
2010-2011 34484 mod 2 passes
2011- up a bit more so far.
So, I recant, numbers are starting to recover (huzzah), but are still quite a bit down on the 2007-2008 level.
A return to the single test at the end of this year should help, but then we'll be into the 3DLD categories, and that could go either way, depending on whether we give direct access to A2 at 19 without an A1 pass. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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c-m |
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c-m World Chat Champion
Joined: 12 May 2006 Karma :
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Posted: 14:09 - 23 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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Doesn't look good does it.
Though we can only speculate as to the affect.
Which has made things worse? The recession in 2008/09 and on going economic doom and gloom, or the new test. Would numbers have remained the same if it wasn't for the recession? In spite of the recession, would number have dwindled due to the new test?
Who knows, however combined they've certainly been detrimental. ____________________ Motorcycle headlight bulbs and HIDs
Blogging about my bike and trips
https://ridershandbook.com/ |
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Bomberman |
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Bomberman World Chat Champion
Joined: 17 Aug 2004 Karma :
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Posted: 14:22 - 23 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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Shame 2005-2006 isn't up there, as 2007-2008 could still be artificially inflated due to people getting it done prior to the new test system.
I don't think those figures actually look too bad. 20,000 over the 5 months they have data on for 2011-2012 - that suggests it'll reach 40k for this year. Still on the up at least. That would be nice to compare to 2005/6 for a clearer picture. ____________________ 'Allo! My name is Inigo Montoya, you killed my father, prepare to die!
'89 TZR 125 - '94 GPZ500s - ZK3 GSXR600 Alstare |
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Kickstart |
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Kickstart The Oracle
Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :
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junglejim |
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junglejim Banned
Joined: 20 Jan 2012 Karma :
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Posted: 14:25 - 23 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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I don't know how long you've been riding, but for me it's 30 years and believe me when I say, biking has always stared in the face of adversity.
I cannot remember a time when there wasn't doom and gloom threatening us in one form or another.
It's always been there.
"Before anti-tampering, mandatory ABS and nanny chips on every bike - from 50cc mopeds up - push prices even higher and drown the aftermarket in the bath"?
Do you really think so.
Did this technology force prices of cars up to way beyond the reach of the average consumer, oh and by the way, the legislation you quote is only proposed.
It is not certain by any means.
Believe me I've seen it so many times in the past with tedious regularity.
Back in the 80's it was going to be compulsory leg protectors.
Then in the 90's it was 100bhp restriction, and so on.
Is the issue of compulsory hi viz any different to that of the introduction of compulsory helmet wearing ?
When that came in, there was exactly the same reaction but of course as we know, it did not kill off biking.
Eventually, a generation will come along who cannot imagine that people once rode without hi viz, just as we do with helmets.
To clarify, I meant the new 2 part mod1/mod2 test introduced in April 2009 - the number of new licensees halved after that came in, and haven't come back up again.
That's as may be, but again, this is not something that has not happened before and of course you are making the assumption that the decline in licenses is solely connected to new laws, which I doubt.
The recession, coupled with the ever increasing price of fuel is all playing it's part.
I really can't see that the license system would put anyone off if it was something they really wanted.
Besides, look how easy we have it in relationship to car learners.
We are free to go out on the road on L Plates unaccompanied.
Imagine if we were as restricted as learner car drivers, who are not allowed on the road unless accompanied by someone qualified. |
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c-m |
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c-m World Chat Champion
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Karma :
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Posted: 14:51 - 23 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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Kickstart wrote: | Also possible that the high figures for 2008/9 were due to people getting their test done in advance of the changes |
Agreed, 2008-2009 was likely a rush of people getting it done under the old system, but note that the rise in 2009-2010 was less than the drop in 2010-2011 (both relative to 2008-2009) so it was a genuine drop, not just tests being done earlier.
OK, 2007-2008 may have been inflated as well, but I doubt it because (IMO) there doesn't seem to be that much lead time between new regulations coming in and them entering the biker Zeitgeist. There's no Biker Bat Signal that we can light up to warn Learners that the times they are a changing.
Likewise, I don't personally believe that the 2011 rise is due to the 3DLD since it's only just been broken in MCN. It seems to have been news to most of the new riders posting over the last year. Which is actually a good thing, a sustained natural rise is what we're after.
Jim, I do hope that you're right. I'm just a gobby noob with an interest in the legislative process, and I'm sure we'll look back on this in a decade or so from our techno-babble bikes and laugh about how primitive things were in the Before Times, when we were trusted to change a sprocket ourselves.
Personally, very few of the proposed issues will directly effect me anyway, it's just that I'd rather see bike numbers healthy and rising. More bikers means more choice of bikes, more political clout and better perception of us on the road. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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junglejim |
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junglejim Banned
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fatpies |
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fatpies World Chat Champion
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gorillaonabik... |
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gorillaonabik... Nearly there...
Joined: 31 Jul 2011 Karma :
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Posted: 02:43 - 25 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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junglejim wrote: | Rogerborg wrote: |
Personally, very few of the proposed issues will directly effect me anyway, it's just that I'd rather see bike numbers healthy and rising. More bikers means more choice of bikes, more political clout and better perception of us on the road. |
Fair enough.
It's just that I do feel that these rumours of legislation get blown out of all proportion.
I've started a thread on this very forum asking for someone to post up evidence from an official source that hi viz is going to become mandatory in France.
It worries me that we just seem to be accepting what the likes of MCN and MAG are telling us without question.
Last time I checked, it had been read by 160 people with not one reply.
I've done it on other forums too with the same result.
What I reckon will happen is that the laws will not come to pass, and MAG will then claim a victory for defeating legislation that was never going to be implemented anyway.
We're none the wiser because we just took their word for it.
If I'm wrong, then fine, so it should be easy to post up a link to the new legislation from an official source. |
The French legislation regarding hi-viz, the decret (type of law) was passed and signed on the 3rd January 2012 and will come into force on 1st January 2013. The legal reference which will allow you to get a copy of this law (or just google it) is NOR : IOCA1126729D N°2012-3
The precise legal text can be found here... https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/affichTexte.do?cidTexte=JORFTEXT000025083522&dateTexte&categorieLien=id
The reality is there is a massive amount of campaigning behind the scenes in order to stop stupid people passing stupid laws affecting you, me and every other biker out there. We all need to contribute to fight against the nonsense spouted by the political classes and if we stand together, we have the power to do so. If you want a reminder of this, try riding through France next year without a hi-viz jacket and you will be able to personally see how annoying it is to be stopped and fined (or have your bike confiscated) for a ridiculous law. Or maybe you can just wait until it hits us in the UK after being passed in Brussels. ____________________ FZR400 (blown engine), ZXR750 (blown engine), ZX6R (accident), CBR600 which had engine issues after which I learned to change gear..., CBR900, CBR924 (stolen), CB600, CB1300 (everything blew up), BMW K1300GT (written off, hit from rear while stationary), Bandit 1250 for a couple of months, Triumph Sprint ST 1050 (nicked) and somewhere in there, I wrote off a Ducati 748 at Cadwell. |
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drzsta |
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drzsta World Chat Champion
Joined: 20 Apr 2009 Karma :
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Posted: 22:00 - 31 Jan 2012 Post subject: |
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I wonder what will happen to the stock in there, if it will be an open sale. I would really like a new cost price bike ____________________ Current Bikes - BMW S1000RR ‘17 & KTM 690 SMC-R ‘12 |
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st3v3 |
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st3v3 Super Spammer
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fatpies |
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fatpies World Chat Champion
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moshi |
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moshi L Plate Warrior
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Karma :
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Posted: 20:01 - 04 Feb 2012 Post subject: |
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Essentially, it's that bike sales have fallen year on year since 2008, and not by a little, by a lot. 125s and scooters are holding up, but everything else is down. Suzuki's sales have halved since 2009.
We're not buying bikes, banks aren't letting anyone run up overdrafts and there just isn't the money around to support big chintzy showrooms. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike |
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daemonoid |
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daemonoid World Chat Champion
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st3v3 |
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st3v3 Super Spammer
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Posted: 20:14 - 04 Feb 2012 Post subject: |
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Rogerborg wrote: |
We're not buying bikes, banks aren't letting anyone run up overdrafts and there just isn't the money around to support big chintzy showrooms. | Given the rules and reg's en-route it's hardly surprising, my dad had ridden bikes for years before I was born, licence wasn't so much an issue back then, he freely admits he wasn't quite legal.
He has more experiene then me, and half the chaps here but he'll never go through a test because of the sily red tape these days.
He wants to hop on a bike and show what he can do from experience, not pansy to what some power tripping pleb with a radio and clipboard deems he has to, to make him happy for half an hour.
Many of the younger generation will be put off too, but DAS is unnaffected (the cause of about half of bike accident statistics). My brother has always shown interest in bikes like me, he turns 16 this year and I was gonna set him up with a moped, but as it stands he won't want to do a test when he's old enough. ...and he's not in it for the 'cool/rebel' biker image, he actually loves bikes - the rest of the youth will be less motivated. ____________________ Roger wrote: Women don't get damp for clingy puppies. Get some better happy pills, hit the gym & buy a medallion the size of a dinner plate. Job done |
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junglejim |
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junglejim Banned
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
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Kickstart |
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Kickstart The Oracle
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Polarbear |
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Polarbear Super Spammer
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 12 years, 78 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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