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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 14:44 - 29 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Carnells had the worst reputaition of any bike company up until the demise of Midland superbikes.

In the MK branch it was like a morgue near the end, people wouldn't touch them with a bargepole. That's not an accusation you can level at GW's.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 14:44 - 29 Feb 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi

Think with the number of bikes being imported at worst recently being more than they were at best in the late 1980s / early 1990s suggests that isn't the case.

George Whites might have been a half decent size local dealer, but go back 20 years and they were pretty much non existent nationally (few were). That changed to punting stuff out cheaply nationally and delivering it (hence people where I used to work in the West Midlands buying stuff from them). It is a very different way they were trying to do business this time round compared to the last time sales were so dead in the early 1990s.

Motorcycle City / Carnells did die a death, and my feeling is for much the same reason as George Whites. They relied on massive sales at low prices and hitting bonus targets with minimal unit profits. Like betting it all on red; if things work the money comes in rapidly but when things go wrong they lose out big style. Carnells motor group possibly kept them afloat for a lot longer than they would have managed just on bike related sales (unlike George Whites who had no such sugar daddy). The big chains were less over bearing in the late 1980s than they were 10 years later. For example around Portsmouth in 1988 the nearest one was a Motorcycle City in Gosport, which in size was little different to the solus Honda dealer almost next door to them, to Portsmouth Honda Centre or to the main Rafferty Newman dealers in Portsmouth.

I have no doubt that sales have fallen recently, my original point was about things picking up in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when my feeling and everything else I have heard suggested that things went down hill from around the time the 125 learner law came in until bottoming out in the mid 1990s, then going up massively before holding their own from the early 2000s until the recent recession.

My feeling is that the difference this time is not so much the drop in sales, rather the way big dealers have tried to swamp the market, gambling on high sales, leaving them to fail dramatically when things go wrong. Compared to a few dozen large independent dealers through the country who could fail over the course of a year without anyone nationally really noticing.

As to CSM, really can't say I noticed them much. Didn't learn with them, nor do I personally know anyone else who did. Pretty much everyone I knew back in the early 1990s who had lessons had taken them with the BMF rider training scheme or with Star Rider.

All the best

Keith
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 01:42 - 01 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:

And this is where your logic fails.
If bike sales in the 80's and early 90's we so poor, how could mass retail outlets like Motorcycle city and Carnell flourish.
If the business model they adopted, of pile em high sell em cheap was the cause of their demise, then following your theory to it's logical conclusion, they should have fallen by the wayside by the late 80's but they didn't.


As I said, they were a far smaller business at the time. Not big superstores. As I mentioned the one local to me in the late 1980s was pretty small (on the same scale as several other local dealers). Then I moved to the midlands and there was none anywhere near me (nor a Carnells).

With small showrooms and low overheads they could survive on piling high and selling cheap, even if they were piling them anything like as high as a decade later.

However, if I must digging out some more figures for you.

Motorcycles first registered by year (from here. as you can see from 1980 until 1993 motorcycle registrations only increased 1 year (1989) and by 1991 was already well under the 1988 figures

1980 312.7
1981 271.9
1982 231.6
1983 174.5
1984 145.2
1985 125.8
1986 106.4
1987 90.8
1988 90.1
1989 97.3
1990 94.4
1991 76.5
1992 65.6
1993 58.4
1994 64.6
1995 68.9
1996 89.6
1997 121.7
1998 144.0
1999 168.0
2000 183.0
2001 177.0
2002 162.0
2003 157.3
2004 133.7
2005 132.3
2006 131.9
2007 143.0
2008 138.4
2009 111.5
2010 97.1

Or we can go for motorcycle road traffic in vehicle miles from here. As you can see bike use dropped every year from 1983 until 1993, finally increasing in 1997

1980 4.8
1981 5.5
1982 5.7
1983 5.1
1984 5.0
1985 4.6
1986 4.4
1987 4.2
1988 3.7
1989 3.7
1990 3.5
1991 3.4
1992 2.8
1993 2.3
1994 2.3
1995 2.3
1996 2.3
1997 2.5
1998 2.6
1999 2.8
2000 2.8
2001 3.0
2002 3.1
2003 3.4
2004 3.2
2005 3.3
2006 3.2
2007 3.4
2008 3.1
2009 3.2
2010 2.9

Or how about by number of bikes licenced, from here

1980 1,372
1981 1,371
1982 1,370
1983 1,290
1984 1,225
1985 1,148
1986 1,065
1987 978
1988 912
1989 875
1990 833
1991 750
1992 684
1993 650
1994 630
1995 594
1996 608.5
1997 626.0
1998 683.9
1999 759.6
2000 825.2
2001 881.7
2002 941.0
2003 1,004.7
2004 1,059.9
2005 1,075.0
2006 1,079.8
2007 1,118.4
2008 1,143.8
2009 1,143.2
2010 1,102.3

So, there are the figures. Motorcycles imported dropped and finally started to go up in the mid 1990s. Motorcycles registered for the first time dropped and finally started to go up again in the mid 1990s. Motorcycle mileage dropped and finally started to go up in the mid 1990s. And the number of bikes licenced dropped and finally started to go up in the mid 1990s. So yes it does seem that the bike market was screwed from the 1980s until the mid 1990s when it improved dramatically, and carried on being relatively healthy until well into the 2000s.

junglejim wrote:

They were the biggest training organisation in the country, but then you because you never noticed them, then I suppose we must concede that this is also incorrect.


Rolling Eyes . If you are pretty much the only national training organisation it is pretty easy to be the biggest while being unnoticeable in many areas.

All the best

Keith
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 10:24 - 01 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:
However, if I must digging out some more figures for you. [...]


Oh, facts. You can use them to prove anything that's even remotely true. Wink
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 10:05 - 02 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:
For example, the stats that our friend is so dependent on suggests that only 750 or so bikes were registered in the whole of the UK in 1991.


Errr... it's "Thousands". As stated in the linked document. 750,000.

Sorry, I stopped reading your reply there.
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jjdugen
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PostPosted: 11:05 - 02 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

My recollection of Carnells/City is that they got so big by buying up /squeezing out any local competition. It was certainly the business model in the Manchester area. When they went bely up it left a virtual desert in the Manchester area, only slowly filled by main dealer showrooms like BMW Ducati and Harley D. The Ducati showroom has closed in Stockport, the Harley showroom has gone a Yamaha dealer opened and recently closed. Triumph have a new glittery showroom, we'll see how they do. Hunts Honda still survive,,, how is anyones guess. Bolton still has some neutered dealers but I have to admit. I have not been in, or near a showoom in the last ten years. The Bay is my shopping 'experience', must have bought and sold thrity or more through it.
I still have an idea to start a Sunday market type meet. Bring your bike, leave it for the day, if anyone is interested you will be contacted by phone. People can see the actual machine rather than dodgy photos and deal directly with the owner. Throw in a jumble and some good food vans and it might be the way of the future.... Anyone want to invest?
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 12:39 - 02 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:

Are you a politician by any chance.
It's just that you seem to be very skilled at spouting endlessly, without actually answering the question.


I have answered the main point many times. It is just that you will no admit to the evidence. Instead you seem intent on just trying to belittle my facts and indulge in petty insults to avoid the points.

junglejim wrote:
So I put it to you again.
If bike sales in the 80's and early 90's we so poor, how could mass retail outlets like Motorcycle city and Carnell flourish and continually expand (which they did during this period.


They didn't flourish in the 1980s when the bike market was tanking. That is a major point. They were just normal sized local outlets but acting as a chain together, rather than massive showrooms we got used to in the last 10~15 years (hence my comment that the local one was about the same size as the solus Honda dealer almost next door, and about the same size as several other local independents). They might have been increasingly noticeable, but then any chain is.

Mid to late 1990s yes they flourished (even if they landed up with a lousy reputation in some areas).

junglejim wrote:
If the business model they adopted, of pile em high sell em cheap was the cause of their demise, then following your theory to it's logical conclusion, they should have fallen by the wayside by the late 80's but they didn't.
Could you please address that point.


I didn't say it was the direct cause of their demise, although yes part of it. Sell 100 £10k bikes at 5% profit and you have £50k profit (after fixed expenses). Sell 1000 £10k bikes at 0.5% profit and you also have £50k profit. But the infrastructure to support 1000 bike sales is far more expensive, so when sales drop the tiny profit margin per bike can't cover the major expenses.

Selling on high volumes and tiny unit margins is a high risk strategy. Large profits when things go well, but if volumes drop the large profits rapidly turn to large losses.

Even worse if they are making a large part of their profit not on a margin per bike, but instead relying on a bonus from the importer for selling X numbers of bikes. Sell the bikes dirt cheap and at no unit profit (or even a loss) and you get the volumes to get the bonuses and make money. But miss the volume by a small amount and all the profit has gone. Sure a dealer might get away with this for a short while by pre registering a load of bikes to keep the bonus, but unless things really pick up the next year so they can sell their pre registered stock and the new stock they are stuffed.

junglejim wrote:
Something tells me you won't though.


I have several times.

Will you now address the basic point that you were utterly wrong with your claim that Biking enjoyed a huge popularity boom in the late 80's into the 90's, but started to tail off by 2000.. From 1985 to 1995 sales dropped 45%, bike mileage dropped 50% and bikes licenced for the road dropped 48%. The only bit of your claim that hold any water is the tailing off after 2000.

Will you face up to how wrong your claim was, or will you keep trying to bring up things such as Carnells / Motorcycle City to try and confuse matters?

junglejim wrote:

For example, the stats that our friend is so dependent on suggests that only 750 or so bikes were registered in the whole of the UK in 1991.
Come on.
Are you really stupid enough to believe that.


That isn't what I said (figure I gave was 76.5, which is obviously not single units, and a quick glance at the source would confirm the figures were in thousands, just like the earlier figures for imports that I gave you).

I really don't think you are so stupid to believe only 750 bikes were registered, so I can only believe that you are trying to deliberately confuse things again.

junglejim wrote:
New bike sales do not account for the whole market.
Only someone very naive would suggest otherwise.
I can tell you for a fact that during the year in question, BAT motorcyles were selling about 20 bikes a month from April to Spetember (average).


Err, so when I give figures for imports including 2nd hand stuff which also went down dramatically, why did you ignore that? Imports dropped 38% between 1986 and 1995, the time when you claim biking was enjoying a huge popularity boom. So BAT (one of the larger and better known grey importers in the early 1990s managed to sell a whopping 20 bikes a month. Even if they managed to maintain that over a year that is only 240 bikes, and even assuming that they were all fresh imports that is only 0.4% of the bikes imported in 1993 (the year when total registrations were at their lowest).

junglejim wrote:
You musn't judge tha market place in the context of new registrations.


I didn't, I also gave you the figures for imports, bike use and bikes being licenced to be used, but you have chosen to ignore those as well.

junglejim wrote:
There's a whole other market to take into account, which according to someone I know in the trade, is one of the main reasons dealers are going under.
There actually isn't that much profit in brand new bikes.
Dealers have traditionally depended on a consistent supply of quality used stock, and therein lies the problem.
This supply has largely dried up for them due to the internet making it easier to sell bikes privately and thus get a better price.
As the sales manager at George Whites once told me, "the internet is killing us"


On this I possibly agree, but with new sales dropping off the pool of 2nd hand stock will dry up, and with the £ worth little vs the Euro compared to a couple of years ago, loads of 2nd hand bikes are being exported. Check the source of the import figures I listed earlier. Between 2007 and 2010 (ignoring mopeds) UK bike production dropped from 32.1k to 23.4k (a 27% drop) while exports of motorcycles from the UK went up from 30.1k to 45.5k (a 51% increase). Or to put it another way the net addition of bikes to the UK pool (production plus imports minus exports) went from 145.7k to 105.1k, a 28% drop. No wonder the pool of 2nd hand bikes to sell appears to have dropped.

It isn't exactly rare for there to be a post on here complaining about the high current cost of 2nd hand bikes.

junglejim wrote:
You cannot judge the popularity of PTW's in the context of new bike registrations.
There's a much bigger picture to take into account and always has been.
Just because people stop buying new, does not mean they stop buying.


But they stopped riding them, taxing them to ride them, registering them or importing them.

Sure there might have been a pool of 2nd hand stuff being resold more regularly, but when the total volume goes through the floor that pretty much shows that biking was suffering badly and not coming back big style in the late 1980s and early 1990s. People might have wanted a Fireblade but seemingly not many people were actually going out and buying a bike, or if they actually were they were not keeping them any length of time (only way more 2nd hand sales can come from less total bikes is if people resell them far more quickly).

junglejim wrote:

I still have an idea to start a Sunday market type meet. Bring your bike, leave it for the day, if anyone is interested you will be contacted by phone. People can see the actual machine rather than dodgy photos and deal directly with the owner. Throw in a jumble and some good food vans and it might be the way of the future.... Anyone want to invest?


It might work, but not sure investment wise it would be worth a punt. Too easy for an established bike meet to move into that business.

All the best

Keith
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jjdugen
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PostPosted: 13:43 - 02 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Kieth, agree with your well argued... arguments...

As to the 'Bring and Byke' idea. I have approached all the main players in the Jumble game, they dont want the extra workload. It seems that they have trouble getting staff to work weekends, (in this day and age?)

To expound a little. It would need a large, covered area. UK weather is just too variable to rely on sunny days. I see plenty of industrial units empty these days. My idea was to have a quick registration with a preprinted label for the owner to fill out details. A photo or two as it is entered and these dispalyed on monitors around the hall. The owner can stay or go as they please. If a punter is really interested, the owner is phoned and can come to do the deal or arrange a suitable time later.
A small fee, say £10, admission of £5, concessions to butty vans, a small autojumble stall fee. I honestly cant see why the idea hasn't been tried. Would take a bit more upfront investment than I can risk, but the two small trials I have run seem to back me up on this one.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 13:52 - 02 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi

It might work.

I would suggest you also add in some kind of call forwarding system ie, so people don't need to give out their own mobile phone numbers to strangers - they ring a number you assign and the call is forwarded. On 2nd thoughts you could possibly use a premium rate number to do this and not actually charge for the advertising.

Would also suggest that if you do this, you do it somewhere people actually would chose to go (or go past). Not just a back street warehouse.

Good luck with it.

All the best

Keith
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 15:38 - 02 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:
No wonder the pool of 2nd hand bikes to sell appears to have dropped.


Hmm. The MCI figures to 2010 (which claim to be based on Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders and/or to be "Number of vehicles currently licensed including vehicles previously licensed in preceding 6 months") shows a steady rise in the number of bikes up to 2009, with a slight but not drastic drop in 2010.

Head scratching ensures. New registrations are down, exports are up - we must be keeping older bikes in service for longer, right? Neutral
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 19:55 - 02 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:

Head scratching ensures. New registrations are down, exports are up - we must be keeping older bikes in service for longer, right? Neutral


Quite possible more of us are riding round on old clunkers Laughing .

Just looked at that table and the small (up to 100cc) bikes are the ones that have really suffered. Dropping from 78.8k to 42k between 2001 and 2010, while mopeds dropped from 178.8k to 141.3k.

All the best

Keith
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 10:45 - 03 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:
Motorcycle city were primarily buying established dealerships.


Uh... but that's just dealerships changing hands, not extra supply capacity.

I had to go back a long way to find the original point of contention:

junglejim wrote:
Biking enjoyed a huge popularity boom in the late 80's into the 90's, but started to tail off by 2000.


I don't know what bikes those new riders in the 80s and early 90s were getting on, because they apparently weren't registering more of them, either new sales or imports. The government figures say that registrations/imports/VED started to rise from 1996 and continued to rise until 2008.

I'm genuinely puzzled as to what you're saying: is it that those figures are just plain wrong, and the boom started in the 1980s? On what, tens of thousands of barn finds? Confused
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 12:15 - 03 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:

I'm not sure if you are deliberately evading my point, or weather you just don't grasp what I'm asking you.


Neither. Point was whoever sold the bikes, the number of bikes being bought, used or the miles they were being used for were all dropping away.

junglejim wrote:
Motorcycle city were primarily buying established dealerships.


So no actual increase in the number of dealers, just some moved to being Motorcycle City dealers while others closed down.

junglejim wrote:
The point is, weather you are prepared to accept it or not, Motorcycle City did expand through the 80's, and I know because I was in the trade at the time, and was watching them buy out some long established businesses, like Mocheck in Clapham, as just one example, (where I worked for a while).


And my point is that total sales were still tanking. Sure they might have managed to sell a few more 2nd hand bikes, but into a reducing market.

junglejim wrote:
I will never accept you are right, when I know you are wrong and will argue with you to the death over this if need be.


Facts prove I am right. You can ignore them all you like but they don't change the facts. Sure some dealer might have managed to turn round a small pool of 2nd hand bikes a bit more frequently, but as people were using bikes less and less that is hardly the sign of a boom.

junglejim wrote:
New registrations do not tell the whole story, and only an idiot would think otherwise.


Maybe not, but I have also given you import figures (including 2nd hand bikes) which were dropping, miles traveled by bike which were dropping and bikes taxed which were dropping.

junglejim wrote:
I see in your last but one post, you're quoting me as saying something I never actually said, which brings into question your grasp of reality.
Shocked


My last but one post didn't even have a quote in it. If you mean the one before that where it seems I miss assigned a quote to you instead of jjdugen then I apolgise for that.

All the best

Keith
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st3v3
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PostPosted: 02:58 - 06 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:


I will never accept you are right, when I know you are wrong and will argue with you to the death over this if need be.
Oooooooooohh..

https://th409.photobucket.com/albums/pp177/scrappinkym/Smiley%20Emoticons/th_scared-1.gif
Scary.

https://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00655/news-graphics-2007-_655165a.jpgFace... botherd?
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 09:23 - 08 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:
How, in a declining market, did Motorcycle City expand into the giants they ultimately became.


They found some money down the back of the sofa, and bought out struggling dealerships at fire sale prices?

Bold underlining doesn't make an anecdote into evidence.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 13:04 - 08 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:
And yet again the original question I asked has been skillfully avoided.

How, in a declining market, did Motorcycle City expand into the giants they ultimately became.

How was that possible.

"Sure they might have managed to sell a few more 2nd hand bikes, but into a reducing market".


No, sorry but you do not become a national chain of dealerships by selling a few used bikes, as well you know.


WHY ARE YOU FINDING IT SO HARD TO ADDRESS THAT POINT ???

Rolling Eyes


Has been addressed several times. Dealers were going bust all over the place. The market was falling like a stone. Some dealers were bought out by a chain who probably thought they could make a go of it with economies of scale. Someone buying up cheap businesses isn't exactly unusual. If the total market halves but half your competition disappears the individual dealers sales might well stay the same. These were hardly the huge bike stores that we later associated with Motorcycle City, Carnells or George Whites, just normal sized local dealers.

The only things you can point out to support your claims that the market was buoyant in the late 1980s and early 1990s despite new bike sales sales crashing 45%, bike mileage crashing 50% and bikes licenced for the road crashing 48% is vague claims that one chain of dealerships buying up failing ones is a sign of a decent market, and that one of the best known and biggest grey importers of the time was managing to sell a whole 20 bikes a month during the summer months. To put that perspective, in the summer 6 months of last year each UK BMW dealer sold on average over 16 brand new bikes per month and the average Triumph dealer sold almost 16 and that ignores March which was their busiest month, with 2nd hand sales are on top of that.

So when are you going to come up with something that even vaguely supports your claims that the market was buoyant? Or are you going to keep trying to avoid that point by referring to some long dead chain of dealers?

All the best

Keith
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kamiod
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PostPosted: 11:51 - 10 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've spent there in the last year wasn't enough to keep them going then... Real shame actually, cos it was a nice ride out from Oxford to Swindon and I could literally spend hours browsing.
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PostPosted: 08:23 - 20 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

junglejim wrote:
You are simply an armchair expert, who puts all their faith in numbers and statistics.


So, are you actually saying that the statistics are plain wrong, and that there were more bikes on the road from the mid 1980s onwards?

And you're basing that belief on what you and your mate saw happening in a couple of dealerships?

Just so we're clear.
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Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike
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Rogerborg
nimbA



Joined: 26 Oct 2010
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PostPosted: 09:04 - 21 Mar 2012    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't say that I recall dismissing motorcycle accident statistics as irrelevant, since I'm usually the one citing them.

Would that be the thread where you trotted out the "my mate said" claim that George White had "just" bought £5 million of Frank Thomas stock, a year after J&S had bought them out, lock, stock and barrel?

Eh, we're at an impasse, and debating it any further won't actually change the past. You win, sir, enjoy your victory.
____________________
Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike
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Old Thread Alert!

The last post was made 12 years, 11 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful?
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