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| Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :     
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 Posted: 11:47 - 06 Nov 2008 Post subject: Interest rates down |
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Hi
Interest rates have gone down by 1.5% points to 3%. That is one hell of a drop.
And personally not certain it is a good thing. Might help in the short term but lousy in the long term unless something can be done to control those things whose price is mainly dependent on interest paid rather than the actual price (eg, houses). At best it is papering over the cracks.
All the best
Keith ____________________ Traxpics, track day and racing photographs - Bimota Forum - Bike performance / thrust graphs for choosing gearing |
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| Wafer_Thin_Ham |
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 Wafer_Thin_Ham Super Spammer

Joined: 18 Nov 2005 Karma :    
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 Posted: 12:02 - 06 Nov 2008 Post subject: |
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Aye, saw that earlier, it is one hell of a drop, although I've seen that some economists have been predicting 0% base rate next year.  ____________________ My Flickr |
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| Nufkamp |
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 Nufkamp Traffic Copper

Joined: 15 Jul 2007 Karma :     
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 Posted: 12:09 - 06 Nov 2008 Post subject: |
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And how much of this 1.5% will filter through to mortgage payers I wonder? 1/2% if we're lucky. ____________________ As seen on Google Street View https://tinyurl.com/yfdvojc |
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| Itchy |
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 Itchy Super Spammer

Joined: 07 Apr 2005 Karma :     
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 Posted: 13:03 - 06 Nov 2008 Post subject: |
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Its a (feeble) attempt to stop deflation...
Everyone is becoming more and more fearful. So everyone stops spending and starts saving/paying down debts. But because consumer spending is 70% of the UK economy, when people stop spending the economy dives further and further*. So people become even more fearful, and therefore spend even less and save even more.
*less spending means job cuts, which means less tax receipts , which means higher taxes.
Beats hyperinflation though , but then again I benefit from deflation more than I do hyperinflation.
Though biflation may occur, ie inflation in vital commodities yet deflation in things that need leverage to sell , ie cars / bikes etc..
In effect the government has just given a heroin addict some more heroin and told them you can come off any time you like... sort of.. ____________________ Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching. |
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| Robby |
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 Robby Dirty Old Man

Joined: 16 May 2002 Karma :   
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| WildGoose |
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 WildGoose White Van Man

Joined: 21 Mar 2002 Karma :  
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 Posted: 21:10 - 06 Nov 2008 Post subject: |
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Can banks be forced to pass this on, or is it all up to them?
Yes Gordon has suggested they pass it on, but sounds to me like they do what the hell they like. Get bailed out, from our pockets, then continue to shaft us with the mortgage repayments.
Pretty fucking sick of all the excuses, look how quick prices get chucked up out of proportion. Then when they are due to fall again, you get some crap about "oooh *sucks teeth* it doesn't work like that".
Was rather excited, as my fixed rate is up soon, a low base rate should mean an ability for us to secure another fixed, at a rate equivalent to current or below. A move to the variable rate (currently approx 2.5% above our fixed) would really hurt. Nevermind the fact that I doubt I would ever sleep if I was on a variable rate. ____________________ So in other words, he stopped you for being flagrantly in posession of a motorcycle in direct contravention of the Hippies, Darkies and People Whose Face I Don't Like The Look of (Police Powers) Act. 1976 |
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| owdamer |
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 owdamer World Chat Champion
Joined: 06 Oct 2004 Karma :     
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| Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :     
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| Itchy |
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 Itchy Super Spammer

Joined: 07 Apr 2005 Karma :     
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 Posted: 22:32 - 06 Nov 2008 Post subject: |
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| robby wrote: | Does this mean house prices will come down a bit more?
I'd like them to. My buy price is £90k, £100k at a push. Currently 1 bed flats anywhere near London are at around £110-120k. |
Yes , because as said people will wait rather than buy now on the prospect that it will be cheaper (to the tune of 2% a month and remember every £1 you save is £3 you don't have to pay back) ....
Combined with tigher borrowing criteria (ie unemployed types and liar loans) means banks are not lending out as much..
Combined with the tranche of unemployment comming (conservative predictions are 5million) , house prices will utterly tank, as there will be many prudent types who a change of circumstance will force them to sell - ie distressed sellers..
But one thing beware of false bottoms, as said in the 1930s crash more money was lost on people falsely thinking it had hit bottom than in the initial crash..
Also as the market overshot on the way up , it WILL over shoot on the way down...
The thing is the UK is the WORST country in the developed world in terms of debt, and thus sure you can buy a house cheap (35% falls minimum now some people are predicting 75%+ falls infact some houses have fallen that far) but is it going to be worth sticking around?.
And Kickstart,
No way Jose, best outcome is we get Japaned, ie Japan had close to 0% interest rates for a VERY long time, 0% mortgages however were not avalible to the public though........ ALL bubbles pop , and this one has, some economists are predicting house price recovery some time near 2023 which is fair, as some say 2010/12 , but give no reasons as to why this is the case.
And before you say it the £ tanking is no good, since we have a serious trade deficit...
Raw materials are also imported ,thus nullifying your effect.
In deflation even though the £ has lost 26% of its value , may improve exports but in a deflation demand is destroyed ie oil price falling due to lower demand...
check out this
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=456069&in_page_id=3
Volvo's truck sales tank 99.7% , last year sold about 44000 units this time this year sold 115.... so sure your exports might get cheaper by 26% , but if your sales decreases by 99.7% you are in a MUCH worse situation.
In your scenario with the Euro tanking against the US , they should have sold MORE units, but sold less , thus your arguement that tanking currency is a good thing doesn't ring true as it does not consider demand destruction..
Still reckon the £ falling is a good thing? ____________________ Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
Last edited by Itchy on 22:36 - 06 Nov 2008; edited 1 time in total |
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| Robby |
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 Robby Dirty Old Man

Joined: 16 May 2002 Karma :   
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| Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :     
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 Posted: 22:40 - 06 Nov 2008 Post subject: |
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| Itchy wrote: | And Kickstart,
No way Jose, best outcome is we get Japaned, ie Japan had close to 0% interest rates for a VERY long time, 0% mortgages however were not avalible to the public though........ ALL bubbles pop , and this one has, some economists are predicting house price recovery some time near 2023 which is fair, as some say 2010/12 , but give no reasons as to why this is the case. |
Err, try reading what I wrote.
If it has the effect they want then likely push up the prices up.
| Itchy wrote: | And before you say it the £ tanking is no good, since we have a serious trade deficit...
Raw materials are also imported ,thus nullifying your effect. |
Raw material imports are totally irrelevant to effect of a low pound on the price of final products lowering due to the low pound.
All the best
Keith ____________________ Traxpics, track day and racing photographs - Bimota Forum - Bike performance / thrust graphs for choosing gearing |
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| Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :     
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 17 years, 315 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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