Sweepstake - When will the pound rally?

Sun Wukong · World Chat Champion Joined: 02 Nov 2014 Karma :

Howzit.

So, as we all know, the pound lost 20% of its value overnight after the Brexit result. Poof, fucking magic.

It seems clear that it is undervalued and artificially depressed by worries about Article 50/trade issues.

Who wants to make bets about when it will recover? Part of the bet obviously is when Darth May pulls her finger out and actually shoots Old Yella, but that is part of the fun.

I can update this post in future with list of months/players, and terms we agree for how it will be considered "recovered" (would suggest exchange rate vs USD and EUR above set level, as both currencies on their own are due volatility).

And yes, I am aware the depressed pound is helping our economic growth/export market, however that is not a long-term situation regardless of how positive it is short term.

Full disclosure:
I have savings sat in the UK, and would also like to know the likelihood of recovery before October 2017 when I intend to use them in Europe. Based on this thread, and other sources, I am trying to work out where to add to the savings from during summer 2017... UK (GBP), Europe (EUR) or other countries.
____________________
Top cat
"Hard times lead to hard people. Hard people lead to good times. Good times lead to weak people. Weak people lead to hard times." Smegballs
"Oh and STE balloons would be one of the nicer things we would receive at the office, the amount of dog turd in jiffy bags is not funny." Jsmith86

Oldie · Brolly Dolly Joined: 05 Dec 2010 Karma :

It's equally possible (and more likely, in my opinion) that the Pound has been over-valued for many years and is now finding it's true level. There may not even be such a thing as a "true" level as the markets are subject to constant manipulation.

Rogerborg · nimbA Joined: 26 Oct 2010 Karma :

The Artist · Super Spammer Joined: 06 Jan 2008 Karma :

Nothing for years unless it becomes clear article 50 won't be triggered.

iooi · Super Spammer Joined: 14 Jan 2007 Karma :

angryjonny · World Chat Champion Joined: 01 Sep 2006 Karma :

trevoriv · World Chat Champion Joined: 04 Jun 2005 Karma :

Two of my businesses bought in USD and sold in GBP. That's now not economically viable so I've had to shut them down. Cost me about £20k a year and the govenment the tax on those earnings. A lot of our investments are now in non taxable (returns under threshold) UK property and EUR / USD. Silly Brexit.

I dont think the pound will recover unless the EU collapses completely or Lehman Brothers starts trading again. Laughing

____________________
Past: '96 Thundercat, '02 ZX636R (A1P), '58 KTM 690 SM LC4 Current: '06 ZX636R (C6F)
Mudskipper wrote: Someone just has to sig that...

Sun Wukong · World Chat Champion Joined: 02 Nov 2014 Karma :

Boo, this makes me sad. All my savings from current shite job are in GBP.

This (current) is meant to be the bottom, and soft Brexit should see a slow climb back up.

Improvement on exports should also bolster the economy, as should dwindling unemployment figures due to more jobs being created.

Yes, wishful thinking but I am quite sad about the knackered pound, which had some epic blumming timing.

Cannot catch a break on currency. Although Trevor may beat me. Hats off, comrade.
____________________
Top cat
"Hard times lead to hard people. Hard people lead to good times. Good times lead to weak people. Weak people lead to hard times." Smegballs
"Oh and STE balloons would be one of the nicer things we would receive at the office, the amount of dog turd in jiffy bags is not funny." Jsmith86

Oldie · Brolly Dolly Joined: 05 Dec 2010 Karma :

Ah, but the point is that it doesn't really matter if the £ is over/under valued - it will adjust to whatever is deemed best by those who control such matters. It will go up and down as usual.

GSTEEL32 · Traffic Copper Joined: 24 Feb 2010 Karma :

For me, its simple.

FED raises US rates by April 2017. Price already built in as they've been banging on about doing it for it months. So,no change GBP/USD.

4 Months later, Carney proposes increase in rates due to "increased inflationary pressure".

Market reads it as GBP strength, ironically, having to curb UK spending is read as people having cash to spend with more people in employment. GBP strength reduces cost of UK imports actually compounding the issue of greater high street spending. This kick-starts economic growth nationally.

Housing market outside London continues to gather pace. This is compounded by builders actually reducing output as a consequence of margins on land banks exceeding margins on finished builds.

Sterling improves greatly against EUR, and jumps 5 - 10 basis points against the $.

The EUR, for what its worth, will continue to be Pony especially in the face of Le Pens actions in France.

Needless to say, I am somewhat Bullish GBP.

Sun Wukong · World Chat Champion Joined: 02 Nov 2014 Karma :

Ste · Not Work Safe Joined: 01 Sep 2002 Karma :

kawakid · World Chat Champion Joined: 15 Mar 2005 Karma :

Even though I was and am proud of the Brexit decision, I actually waited until the day after the referendum to buy Euros, my thinking was Brexit isn't going to happen and the pound was going to rise rapidly.

I've just booked a cheap self catering holiday at Easter to Lanzagrotte and I bought my Euros on Sunday at about 1.13.

My reckoning is the pound will dive after article 50 has been invoked.

Though I'll probably get it wrong.

Why I didn't put a few grand in to Euros 2 years back I'll never know. I'm one of those weird people who holiday a lot.
____________________
I've a twin and a 4.