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Warning: don't ride when there's a full moon

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Freddyfruitba...
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PostPosted: 12:34 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Warning: don't ride when there's a full moon Reply with quote

... according to the British Medical Journal - apparently the risk of death is 5% higher; and 27% higher during a supermoon. So.

(There's also a non-statistician's version of the story in the Torygraph)
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fatjames
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PostPosted: 15:10 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I call bollox.

Although.. lunatic is still a thing, yeah?
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M.C
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PostPosted: 15:52 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Werewolves running out in the road?
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Freddyfruitba...
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PostPosted: 16:33 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

fatjames wrote:
Although.. lunatic is still a thing, yeah?

Well, my missus used to work in A&E, and it was very much a thing that they had far more custom that usual on the night of a full moon. Very odd, but very real - ask any medic and they'll agree.

Regarding the bike thing - I don't think it's unreasonable: eg read the study author: "A full moon is infrequent and spectacular, thereby creating a natural distraction. It can appear abruptly to a motorcyclist, such as when riding around buildings, through turns, past trees, and over hills. A full moon also creates optical illusions that engender wonderment and tends to rise above the horizon in the night hours exactly at the time motorcycle crashes generally predominate.”
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asta1
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PostPosted: 17:23 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/the-best-of-the-british-medical-journals-goofy-christmas-papers-180948177/

I'll just leave this here...

Still, strange topic or no, the science and statistical method seems sound.

Regarding lunatics, there does seem to be something in it. One of my friends is a psychopharmacologist covering the Greater Manchester wards and he reckons the three days before and after the full moon are his busiest periods.
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ScaredyCat
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PostPosted: 17:53 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also watch out for these:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-42267790
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Freddyfruitba...
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PostPosted: 18:05 - 12 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

asta1 wrote:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/the-best-of-the-british-medical-journals-goofy-christmas-papers-180948177/
I'll just leave this here...
Still, strange topic or no, the science and statistical method seems sound.

Yes the BMJ Xmas issue is usually quite a good read; it contains light-hearted/amusing/anecdotal stuff which wouldn't normally make it into a medical journal, but (as you say), the methodology still has to be done properly!
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goto10
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PostPosted: 12:35 - 14 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
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Dave70
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PostPosted: 00:18 - 16 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Freddyfruitbat wrote:
Well, my missus used to work in A&E, and it was very much a thing that they had far more custom that usual on the night of a full moon. Very odd, but very real - ask any medic and they'll agree.


I can vouch for that.

Many a time when I worked in A&E and we were having one of those shifts, I'd often go outside to check and 9/10 there would be a full moon.
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