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2017 Salesmageddon figures analysed

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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:43 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: 2017 Salesmageddon figures analysed Reply with quote

By, of course, Bennetts.

tl;dr version - 2017 was about the same as 2015. It only looks awful when you compare it to the 2016 pre-Eurobollocks fire sale bonanza.

Spoilsports. Razz
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arry
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PostPosted: 09:09 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why didn't they have their actuaries look at it?!

I'll give the data to Team Geek in the cupboard and see if they come to a different conclusion Laughing

Trend from 13 and 14 would be interesting to look at, too. When did the progressive access BS start again?
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arry
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PostPosted: 12:26 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quite interesting actually. It looks like there was a distinct upward trend in Motorcycle sales from 2011 onward, with a distinct uptick from 2014, but 2016 sits well outside of the pack especially Q4. 2017 is definitely in the pack but regardless of the 2016 'bump' it does appear the bubble has burst. Notwithstanding that, 2017 is still 22.1% up on 2011 so the trend is still not a disaster.

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4668/25093079137_d2f4e3cdf5_b.jpg



Which is the almost extreme opposite of tiddlers. The trend is downward across the piece and shows no sign of abating. Even 2016 was a sucker.

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4668/39065997395_08a7728b8b_b.jpg
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 12:52 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

arry wrote:
Why didn't they have their actuaries look at it?!

Why don't you go ask your mu- oh, you did. Thumbs Up

I guess if you average out 2016 + 2017 then it's still pretty good, #DespiteBrexit.

When the bollocks kicked in, Lexmoto's cheapest bollocks-bike was £2K, which I expect hurt the low end sales. They've managed to get a few £1400 hacks now which should attract the tightwads back.

Still, pressure on 125 used prices is going to be upwards for a while.
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Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike
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arry
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PostPosted: 13:25 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I can find the data on test passes and number of licenced riders it'll be interesting to run the trend lines.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 14:24 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

He's aroused, nobody drink from any opened bottles.
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Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike
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weasley
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PostPosted: 14:55 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ooooh, charts!

An interesting observation on the tiddler chart - the Nov-Dec trend over the years appears to have gone from a regular, predictable month-to-month slump, through less of a slump in 2015, to a growth in 2016 and a proper firesale in 2017.

Is this a thing? Or this is driven by some other effect involving year-end pre-registrations or something?
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arry
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PostPosted: 15:29 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://data.gov.uk/dataset/driving-licence-data/resource/cdeeac1b-f4dd-4cfc-8da9-c59863b38fa3


There's actually a load of cool stuff in here. Not had a chance to analyse anything yet. Worth a look around.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 15:53 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

When we say "tiddlers", are we talking mopeds or 125s?

"Tiddler" graphs above look more like peds.

https://www.mcia.co.uk/admin/images/uploaded_images/[statistics_330]Press%20Statistics%20201712.pdf

Sez:


ENGINE BAND | Dec 2017 | Dec 2016 | % change
0-50cc | 1,328 | 909 | 46.1%
51-125cc | 1,577 | 5,971 | -73.6%

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Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
GONE: HN125-8, LF-250B, GPz 305, GPZ 500S, Burgman 400 // RIDING: F650GS (800 twin), Royal Enfield Bullet Electra 500 AVL, Ninja 250R because racebike
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arry
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PostPosted: 16:00 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yup, proper tiddlers. Peds innit.

I will run the 125 data and see.
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arry
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PostPosted: 16:30 - 29 Jan 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

51cc-125cc data:

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4705/39070110175_022c095b98_b.jpg
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