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Val |
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Val World Chat Champion
Joined: 03 Nov 2012 Karma :
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Posted: 00:20 - 19 Aug 2018 Post subject: |
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2016:
Pjay wrote: | Good lord, still more butthurt.
There is no need to worry about trade deals, seriously no need whatsoever.
We buy more than we sell in the EU, so they will be falling over themselves to sort us out favourable terms. Only an 8yr old could fuck it up. So please, leave the politics to the politicians fs. |
I have to say this post and Brexit are not aging well.
We have gone from:
2015 - nobody is talking about UK leaving the SM. Glorius Brexit future.
2016 - it will be the easiest deal ever, we can have everything we ever want.
2017 - we must leave SM. There may be 2-3m jobs lost. It's worth it. They needs us more then we need them.
To: 2018 - it will take 50 years to get back at 2015, start stockpiling food & medical supplies. Brexit may be better then nuclear holocaust.
NI start buying candles. Army preparing for riots.
No deal. One potato per person per week.
I may have told you few years back that nobody will stop buying BMWs. Most like likely to suffer are the cheap UK made Ford and Vauxhall and Nissans.
I have not bought my BMW X5 because it is cheap. Trade is based on quality. This is the reason US crap cars have not big market in EU. HTH.
https://i.imgur.com/f37U3eq.jpg ____________________ Adrian Monk: Unless I'm wrong, which, you know, I'm not...
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Riejufixing |
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
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Val |
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Val World Chat Champion
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DrSnoosnoo |
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DrSnoosnoo World Chat Champion
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DrSnoosnoo |
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DrSnoosnoo World Chat Champion
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Val |
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Val World Chat Champion
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Posted: 18:58 - 23 Aug 2018 Post subject: |
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DrSnoosnoo wrote: |
Who expects a BETTER deal with the EU than one we enjoy as being a member? Nobody. Who expects the politicians to achieve a SENSIBLE deal? Surely, everyone should. You are confusing the two |
Ok I would agree with you if you define sensible deal?
Because there is a possible deal - defined 2 years ago in EU guidelines, based on UK's requirements to stay out of SM and customs union.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/03/23/european-council-art-50-guidelines-on-the-framework-for-the-future-eu-uk-relationship-23-march-2018/
That will be kind of FTA Canada +. That will mean complete devastation of UK supply chain, all integrated manufacturing like car and Airbus can't function with border control regime needed for that. UK medicines export. Honestly the list with the damages will take 20 BCF posts.
Is that sensible deal to you?
I don't think UK is ready and prepared for that. Just yesterday Rabb was talking utter BS for no deal:
Quote: | Dominic Raab:"We hope the EU will continue to accept our medicines (without testing them at the border)even after we leave the EU's regulatory framework" |
That can't happen. Because literally means destroying the EU and the Single Market. Also if for some reason EU decides to destroy itself and the single market, Japan, China and the rest of WTO will not allow that, because under WTO you must have border control.
Finally the deal which is negotiated at the moment is for withdrawal agreement. The only part left is NI backstop border option. This the point I meant when said I hope there will be sensible deal - for the Withdrawal Agreement so that UK can have 2 years transition period.
Any future detailed trade deal negotiations will happen AFTER March 2019 when the UK is 3rd party. Barnier doesn't have any manadate from EU 27 to negotiate and finalise future trade deal.
So the whole noise in UK about some imaginary deal is completely ittelevant to what must be signed this year.
Canada deal took 7 years. UK one will be much more complex. You do the maths when the trade negotiations will finish. ____________________ Adrian Monk: Unless I'm wrong, which, you know, I'm not...
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Kawasaki Jimbo |
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Kawasaki Jimbo World Chat Champion
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Riejufixing |
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
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Riejufixing |
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
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Posted: 21:47 - 23 Aug 2018 Post subject: |
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Kawasaki Jimbo wrote: | You'd think the EU only ever bought and sold within the 28.
Other EU nations are watching, and if the UK can thrive after leaving they'll follow. Consequently Barnier et al are keen to spoil it however they can. |
I am not convinced that's the case. The EU will lose a large source of funding, which will have to be made up somewhere if there are not to be cuts in "EU spending". Other EU nations, while they may appear superficially to want to leave, probably won't I think, although there is that possibility. It is likely, however, that other current EU nations will try to avoid upping their contributions (or lessening their receipts), or may try to get some advantage for themselves, whatever that could be, politically or financially. |
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
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Itchy |
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Itchy Super Spammer
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skatefreak |
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skatefreak World Chat Champion
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DrSnoosnoo |
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DrSnoosnoo World Chat Champion
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Monkeywrenche... |
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Monkeywrenche... Nearly there...
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Riejufixing |
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
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Posted: 09:32 - 24 Aug 2018 Post subject: |
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(Riejufixing: world trade)
Itchy wrote: | RoTW is bigger but there are problems with this.
IMF considers 35 nations to be developed and wealthy 25 of those are in the EU.
We can do a rough split.
Europe is 22% of the world's GDP
USA is 25%
China, Japan, India are 36% of the world's GDP
All the others are 16%
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I am not sure why the above GDP figures are quoted. We are not going to cease trading with the EU, under any imaginable circumstances at at all. We are, as set out before, trying to come up with a mutual trading relationship with them. There is a good deal of pressure from both parties' firms and organisations to do this. We will be seeking, like other large economies, to join the CPTPP and have considerable support from its current members. We will be trading with the US, and the other countries in the world are scarcely inconsiderable when compared as a whole to us, and moreover they are developing and opportunities for development.
(Riejufixing: EU funding)
Itchy wrote: | Have some perspective. UK contib is 13bn, EU is worth 15.3 trillion. Germany increased trade with PRC by 11bn. So the contribution is both tiny compared to the whole area and it's already been made up elsewhere. |
The contributions made to the EU budget are not the same as EU GDPs or trade figures.
The loss of UK-EU contributions is not "tiny" in that context. The UK is one of the top contributing countries to the EU budget (source: Europesan Parliament, "fullfact.org"). Indeed, without "the rebate", we would be the second-largest contributor behind Germany.
There is indeed considerable concern in EU countries about this, as previously mentioned. |
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Riejufixing |
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
Joined: 24 Jun 2018 Karma :
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Posted: 10:34 - 24 Aug 2018 Post subject: |
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Val wrote: | Riejufixing wrote: | It's only in the next three months, after all the posturing, that negotiations on some trade arrangement will get going. I don't think things are as bad as they're made out to be. Sensible arrangements will be made. |
I hope you are right. |
There have been promising noises from the EU this year, notably from Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Ireland, which will be most affected by a "No Deal" Brexit, has been playing a somewhat different political game in government circles, although that has started to change this month.
Austria, which currently holds the EU rotating presidency, has said it wants to "help the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator avoid a hard Brexit", which words carry a very clear implication.
Compare the first part of this short article (yesterday):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-austria/austrias-kurz-wants-to-help-eus-barnier-avoid-a-hard-brexit-idUSKCN1L829F
with this one (late July):
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-austria/austria-seeks-to-avoid-hard-brexit-kurz-tells-may-idUKKBN1KH1Z2 |
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Itchy Super Spammer
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DrSnoosnoo World Chat Champion
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Riejufixing |
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
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Itchy Super Spammer
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Riejufixing |
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
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Posted: 11:44 - 24 Aug 2018 Post subject: |
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Posting a series of unrelated statements or the same with no relevant context is not useful. |
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 5 years, 247 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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