Help & FAQs    Search BCF    Members    Groups    Events Calendar
Resend my activation email : Register : Log in 
BCF: Bike Chat Forums


Brexit negotiations

 Reply to topic
Bike Chat Forums Index -> Politics & Current Affairs Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 38, 39, 40 ... 54, 55, 56  Next
View previous topic : View next topic  
Author Message

Val
World Chat Champion



Joined: 03 Nov 2012
Karma :
PostPosted: 00:20 - 19 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
2016:

Pjay wrote:
Good lord, still more butthurt.

There is no need to worry about trade deals, seriously no need whatsoever.

We buy more than we sell in the EU, so they will be falling over themselves to sort us out favourable terms. Only an 8yr old could fuck it up. So please, leave the politics to the politicians fs.


I have to say this post and Brexit are not aging well.

We have gone from:

2015 - nobody is talking about UK leaving the SM. Glorius Brexit future.
2016 - it will be the easiest deal ever, we can have everything we ever want.
2017 - we must leave SM. There may be 2-3m jobs lost. It's worth it. They needs us more then we need them.

To: 2018 - it will take 50 years to get back at 2015, start stockpiling food & medical supplies. Brexit may be better then nuclear holocaust.
NI start buying candles. Army preparing for riots.
No deal. One potato per person per week.

I may have told you few years back that nobody will stop buying BMWs. Most like likely to suffer are the cheap UK made Ford and Vauxhall and Nissans.

I have not bought my BMW X5 because it is cheap. Trade is based on quality. This is the reason US crap cars have not big market in EU. HTH.

https://i.imgur.com/f37U3eq.jpg
____________________
Adrian Monk: Unless I'm wrong, which, you know, I'm not...
Yamaha Fazer FZS 600, MT09, XSR 900
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

Riejufixing
World Chat Champion



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma :
PostPosted: 20:06 - 20 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
It's only in the next three months, after all the posturing, that negotiations on some trade arrangement will get going. I don't think things are as bad as they're made out to be. Sensible arrangements will be made.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message You must be logged in to rate posts

Val
World Chat Champion



Joined: 03 Nov 2012
Karma :
PostPosted: 14:13 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
It's only in the next three months, after all the posturing, that negotiations on some trade arrangement will get going. I don't think things are as bad as they're made out to be. Sensible arrangements will be made.


I hope you are right.
____________________
Adrian Monk: Unless I'm wrong, which, you know, I'm not...
Yamaha Fazer FZS 600, MT09, XSR 900
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

DrSnoosnoo
World Chat Champion



Joined: 28 Mar 2012
Karma :
PostPosted: 14:18 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Val wrote:
I hope you are right.


No. No you don't. If, at the end of all this politicians are sensible and negotiate a sensible deal, people like you won't be able to say, "I told you so".
____________________
I'm Sam; Northern, Ginger, Lover
Did have: '95 ZZR600 '83 CG125 '97 ZZR1100 '15 Hypermotard 821 SP Do Have: '10 ZX10R
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

Val
World Chat Champion



Joined: 03 Nov 2012
Karma :
PostPosted: 16:42 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
DrSnoosnoo wrote:
Val wrote:
I hope you are right.


No. No you don't. If, at the end of all this politicians are sensible and negotiate a sensible deal, people like you won't be able to say, "I told you so".


Are you saying that UK politicians will not negotiate a sensible deal just because of me?

Or it is more likely sensible deal is oxymoron and there is not deal better then the current EU membership.

And I will say I told you so, because this is the reality as opposed to whatever unicorns you mean are "sensible deal".
____________________
Adrian Monk: Unless I'm wrong, which, you know, I'm not...
Yamaha Fazer FZS 600, MT09, XSR 900
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

DrSnoosnoo
World Chat Champion



Joined: 28 Mar 2012
Karma :
PostPosted: 16:51 - 22 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Val wrote:
Are you saying that UK politicians will not negotiate a sensible deal just because of me?

Or it is more likely sensible deal is oxymoron and there is not deal better then the current EU membership.

And I will say I told you so, because this is the reality as opposed to whatever unicorns you mean are "sensible deal".


Honestly, that makes no sense. Another poster wrote" ... sensible arrangements will be made" to which you replied "I hope so".

I am saying that you do not hope for a sensible deal. You want to be right.

Then this latest response is that a sensible deal is an oxymoron and a unicorn but in much more broken English.

Who expects a BETTER deal with the EU than one we enjoy as being a member? Nobody. Who expects the politicians to achieve a SENSIBLE deal? Surely, everyone should. You are confusing the two
____________________
I'm Sam; Northern, Ginger, Lover
Did have: '95 ZZR600 '83 CG125 '97 ZZR1100 '15 Hypermotard 821 SP Do Have: '10 ZX10R
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

Val
World Chat Champion



Joined: 03 Nov 2012
Karma :
PostPosted: 18:58 - 23 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
DrSnoosnoo wrote:


Who expects a BETTER deal with the EU than one we enjoy as being a member? Nobody. Who expects the politicians to achieve a SENSIBLE deal? Surely, everyone should. You are confusing the two


Ok I would agree with you if you define sensible deal?

Because there is a possible deal - defined 2 years ago in EU guidelines, based on UK's requirements to stay out of SM and customs union.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/03/23/european-council-art-50-guidelines-on-the-framework-for-the-future-eu-uk-relationship-23-march-2018/

That will be kind of FTA Canada +. That will mean complete devastation of UK supply chain, all integrated manufacturing like car and Airbus can't function with border control regime needed for that. UK medicines export. Honestly the list with the damages will take 20 BCF posts.

Is that sensible deal to you?

I don't think UK is ready and prepared for that. Just yesterday Rabb was talking utter BS for no deal:

Quote:
Dominic Raab:"We hope the EU will continue to accept our medicines (without testing them at the border)even after we leave the EU's regulatory framework"


That can't happen. Because literally means destroying the EU and the Single Market. Also if for some reason EU decides to destroy itself and the single market, Japan, China and the rest of WTO will not allow that, because under WTO you must have border control.

Finally the deal which is negotiated at the moment is for withdrawal agreement. The only part left is NI backstop border option. This the point I meant when said I hope there will be sensible deal - for the Withdrawal Agreement so that UK can have 2 years transition period.

Any future detailed trade deal negotiations will happen AFTER March 2019 when the UK is 3rd party. Barnier doesn't have any manadate from EU 27 to negotiate and finalise future trade deal.

So the whole noise in UK about some imaginary deal is completely ittelevant to what must be signed this year.

Canada deal took 7 years. UK one will be much more complex. You do the maths when the trade negotiations will finish.
____________________
Adrian Monk: Unless I'm wrong, which, you know, I'm not...
Yamaha Fazer FZS 600, MT09, XSR 900
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

Kawasaki Jimbo
World Chat Champion



Joined: 09 Oct 2015
Karma :
PostPosted: 19:29 - 23 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
You'd think the EU only ever bought and sold within the 28.
Other EU nations are watching, and if the UK can thrive after leaving they'll follow. Consequently Barnier et al are keen to spoil it however they can.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

Riejufixing
World Chat Champion



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma :
PostPosted: 21:41 - 23 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Val wrote:
Are you saying that UK politicians will not negotiate a sensible deal just because of me?

Or it is more likely sensible deal is oxymoron and there is not deal better then the current EU membership.


Politicians are trying to negotiate a sensible "deal". The negotiation is really only just starting. A sensible deal with the EU, that does not damage our external prospects, or their internal ones (since they will continue to trade "as normal"), is in both our interests. It is certain that we will not make a better deal with the EU than the one we have until the end of March; however, that is of course not the end of the story, by a long chalk. We can most certainly interact with the rest of the world far better on our own. The rest of the world is bigger (much bigger) than the EU, hence the advantage.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message You must be logged in to rate posts

Riejufixing
World Chat Champion



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma :
PostPosted: 21:47 - 23 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
You'd think the EU only ever bought and sold within the 28.
Other EU nations are watching, and if the UK can thrive after leaving they'll follow. Consequently Barnier et al are keen to spoil it however they can.


I am not convinced that's the case. The EU will lose a large source of funding, which will have to be made up somewhere if there are not to be cuts in "EU spending". Other EU nations, while they may appear superficially to want to leave, probably won't I think, although there is that possibility. It is likely, however, that other current EU nations will try to avoid upping their contributions (or lessening their receipts), or may try to get some advantage for themselves, whatever that could be, politically or financially.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message You must be logged in to rate posts

Riejufixing
World Chat Champion



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma :
PostPosted: 21:54 - 23 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Val wrote:
Also if for some reason EU decides to destroy itself and the single market, Japan, China and the rest of WTO will not allow that, because under WTO you must have border control.


Again: if you read the Chequers' paper I alluded to earlier, you will see that we do not want to "destroy the single market"; the EU can keep its single market. What we propose is another free market zone, which does not impinge on the EU's, between it and us.

As for the WTO and border controls, here is some interesting and quite light reading:

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/does-the-wto-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message You must be logged in to rate posts

Itchy
Super Spammer



Joined: 07 Apr 2005
Karma :
PostPosted: 08:32 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
The rest of the world is bigger (much bigger) than the EU, hence the advantage.



RoTW is bigger but there are problems with this.

IMF considers 35 nations to be developed and wealthy 25 of those are in the EU.

We can do a rough split.

Europe is 22% of the world's GDP
USA is 25%
China, Japan, India are 36% of the world's GDP

All the others are 16%

Africa combined has less GDP than France. AND Africa is aligned with the PRC.
South America has less GDP in total than the UK and it too is aligned with the PRC.

This makes you wonder when people say RoTW do individuals realise how poor the rest of the world is?


Riejufixing wrote:
I am not convinced that's the case. The EU will lose a large source of funding, which will have to be made up somewhere if there are not to be cuts in "EU spending". .


Have some perspective. UK contib is 13bn, EU is worth 15.3 trillion. Germany increased trade with PRC by 11bn. So the contribution is both tiny compared to the whole area and it's already been made up elsewhere.
____________________
Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

skatefreak
World Chat Champion



Joined: 06 Feb 2010
Karma :
PostPosted: 08:48 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Not sure I get the point if the conparison between UK contributions to EU budgets (what they have to spend) and the EU’s GDP (nothing to do with what they can spend?)?
UK is one of the top contributors, many take far more than they contrubite so it’s not exactly a few billion lost admist trillions they have flowing in every year?
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

DrSnoosnoo
World Chat Champion



Joined: 28 Mar 2012
Karma :
PostPosted: 08:50 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
Have some perspective. UK contib is 13bn, EU is worth 15.3 trillion. Germany increased trade with PRC by 11bn. So the contribution is both tiny compared to the whole area and it's already been made up elsewhere.


Is your "worth" Euro$ in the bank? Or is that worth in trade? When Germany increased trade with PRC by 11bn, Euro$ in the bank?

If the EU is this rich, why bother taking payments at all if it is a self funding entity?
____________________
I'm Sam; Northern, Ginger, Lover
Did have: '95 ZZR600 '83 CG125 '97 ZZR1100 '15 Hypermotard 821 SP Do Have: '10 ZX10R
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

Monkeywrenche...
Nearly there...



Joined: 27 Mar 2015
Karma :
PostPosted: 08:50 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:

Have some perspective. UK contib is 13bn, EU is worth 15.3 trillion. Germany increased trade with PRC by 11bn. So the contribution is both tiny compared to the whole area and it's already been made up elsewhere.


yes it looks tiny if you compare the annual contribution of one member country against the combined GDP of all 28 member states, but that comparison is flawed. in 2016 we contributed 13.5 percent of the total contribution, that is not a tiny amount nor easy to make up.
____________________
2001 Aprilia RSV Mille R -dead, 2016 XSR 700-gone, 2018 Dorsoduro 900
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message You must be logged in to rate posts

Riejufixing
World Chat Champion



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma :
PostPosted: 09:32 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
(Riejufixing: world trade)

Itchy wrote:
RoTW is bigger but there are problems with this.

IMF considers 35 nations to be developed and wealthy 25 of those are in the EU.

We can do a rough split.

Europe is 22% of the world's GDP
USA is 25%
China, Japan, India are 36% of the world's GDP

All the others are 16%



I am not sure why the above GDP figures are quoted. We are not going to cease trading with the EU, under any imaginable circumstances at at all. We are, as set out before, trying to come up with a mutual trading relationship with them. There is a good deal of pressure from both parties' firms and organisations to do this. We will be seeking, like other large economies, to join the CPTPP and have considerable support from its current members. We will be trading with the US, and the other countries in the world are scarcely inconsiderable when compared as a whole to us, and moreover they are developing and opportunities for development.


(Riejufixing: EU funding)

Itchy wrote:
Have some perspective. UK contib is 13bn, EU is worth 15.3 trillion. Germany increased trade with PRC by 11bn. So the contribution is both tiny compared to the whole area and it's already been made up elsewhere.


The contributions made to the EU budget are not the same as EU GDPs or trade figures.

The loss of UK-EU contributions is not "tiny" in that context. The UK is one of the top contributing countries to the EU budget (source: Europesan Parliament, "fullfact.org"). Indeed, without "the rebate", we would be the second-largest contributor behind Germany.

There is indeed considerable concern in EU countries about this, as previously mentioned.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message You must be logged in to rate posts

Riejufixing
World Chat Champion



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma :
PostPosted: 10:34 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Val wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
It's only in the next three months, after all the posturing, that negotiations on some trade arrangement will get going. I don't think things are as bad as they're made out to be. Sensible arrangements will be made.


I hope you are right.


There have been promising noises from the EU this year, notably from Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Ireland, which will be most affected by a "No Deal" Brexit, has been playing a somewhat different political game in government circles, although that has started to change this month.

Austria, which currently holds the EU rotating presidency, has said it wants to "help the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator avoid a hard Brexit", which words carry a very clear implication.

Compare the first part of this short article (yesterday):

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-austria/austrias-kurz-wants-to-help-eus-barnier-avoid-a-hard-brexit-idUSKCN1L829F

with this one (late July):

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-austria/austria-seeks-to-avoid-hard-brexit-kurz-tells-may-idUKKBN1KH1Z2
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message You must be logged in to rate posts

Itchy
Super Spammer



Joined: 07 Apr 2005
Karma :
PostPosted: 10:51 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
We are, as set out before, trying to come up with a mutual trading relationship with them.



Nope.

Look again at art 50 para 3. All treaties shall cease.

There are no trade deal negotiations going on.

The 2 year art 50 period is supposed to be for getting affairs in order to leave completely.

There is nothing there that says the UK can keep certain bits.

A trading relationship discussion happens afterwards.


To discuss an EU trade deal Canada and Japan have to be consulted about it as this forms a material change to their treaties.

So to get a new treaty several other treaties have to be arranged first.
____________________
Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

Itchy
Super Spammer



Joined: 07 Apr 2005
Karma :
PostPosted: 10:55 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
DrSnoosnoo wrote:


Is your "worth" Euro$ in the bank? Or is that worth in trade? When Germany increased trade with PRC by 11bn, Euro$ in the bank?

It's trade.

The point being is that they're moving on and doing things to mitigate losses by making earnings elsewhere

DrSnoosnoo wrote:
If the EU is this rich, why bother taking payments at all if it is a self funding entity?


If the EU is so poor and so terrible then why bother to trade or have any dealings with them whatsoever?
____________________
Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

DrSnoosnoo
World Chat Champion



Joined: 28 Mar 2012
Karma :
PostPosted: 11:01 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
The point being is that they're moving on and doing things to mitigate losses by making earnings elsewhere


Will those revenues you mentioned cover the loss of contribution? Genuine question.

Itchy wrote:
If the EU is so poor and so terrible then why bother to trade or have any dealings with them whatsoever?


Well the EU as an organisation need our money as contributions now, the organisation will be poorer when we leave.

You've discussed GDP values, Brexit does not mean: do not trade with any of the countries within 3 hours driving distance from us. The part I want is trade with the countries within the EU, and the rest, I'm sure the countries within the EU aren't saying "cut them off, they will not be buying any of our stuff from now on".
____________________
I'm Sam; Northern, Ginger, Lover
Did have: '95 ZZR600 '83 CG125 '97 ZZR1100 '15 Hypermotard 821 SP Do Have: '10 ZX10R
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

Riejufixing
World Chat Champion



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma :
PostPosted: 11:11 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
We are, as set out before, trying to come up with a mutual trading relationship with them.



Nope.

Look again at art 50 para 3. All treaties shall cease.

There are no trade deal negotiations going on.

The 2 year art 50 period is supposed to be for getting affairs in order to leave completely.

There is nothing there that says the UK can keep certain bits.

A trading relationship discussion happens afterwards.


To discuss an EU trade deal Canada and Japan have to be consulted about it as this forms a material change to their treaties.

So to get a new treaty several other treaties have to be arranged first.


Read the Chequers' White Paper.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message You must be logged in to rate posts

Riejufixing
World Chat Champion



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma :
PostPosted: 11:14 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
DrSnoosnoo wrote:
If the EU is this rich, why bother taking payments at all if it is a self funding entity?


If the EU is so poor and so terrible then why bother to trade or have any dealings with them whatsoever?


Why bother to post a non-answer which is unrelated to the subject, in this case the fact that the EU budget will be lessened, without changes to EU coiuntries' receipts or contributions, when the UK leaves?

It is a fact that the EU budget will be lessened, isn't it.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message You must be logged in to rate posts

Itchy
Super Spammer



Joined: 07 Apr 2005
Karma :
PostPosted: 11:18 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
DrSnoosnoo wrote:
Will those revenues you mentioned cover the loss of contribution? Genuine question.


It will go someway towards them.

1.6bn + 1.4BN (Japan + CETA).



DrSnoosnoo wrote:

Well the EU as an organisation need our money as contributions now, the organisation will be poorer when we leave.


Well it's a good thing they're seeking other sources of income isn't it?

DrSnoosnoo wrote:
The part I want is trade with the countries within the EU, and the rest, I'm sure the countries within the EU aren't saying "cut them off, they will not be buying any of our stuff from now on".



Read it again art 50 para 3. All treaties shall cease. Where in that does it say there is provision to stay or to continue to trade on the same terms?

Therefore once it happens it's 3rd country time and thus subject to external WTO tariffs and rules.

The EU can't give the UK preferential treatment due to the most favored nation clause. They themselves are bound by the agreements with the WTO.

The UK can unilaterally reduce all tariffs to 0% but all trade leverage vanishes as does all UK industry.
____________________
Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

Itchy
Super Spammer



Joined: 07 Apr 2005
Karma :
PostPosted: 11:24 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
Read the Chequers' White Paper.



It's quite silly.

It's like you gotta gimme respekt coz I respekt nobody!!!

The UK wants the EU to respect it's sovereignty, tax and money.

Yet the UK wants control over an aspect of the EU's sovereignty, tax and money by collecting tariffs and taxes on its behalf.

Except UK has been cheating at this already.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43328398
____________________
Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail You must be logged in to rate posts

Riejufixing
World Chat Champion



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
Karma :
PostPosted: 11:44 - 24 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
(snip)


Posting a series of unrelated statements or the same with no relevant context is not useful.
 Back to top
View user's profile Send private message You must be logged in to rate posts
Old Thread Alert!

The last post was made 5 years, 237 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful?
  Display posts from previous:   
This page may contain affiliate links, which means we may earn a small commission if a visitor clicks through and makes a purchase. By clicking on an affiliate link, you accept that third-party cookies will be set.

Post new topic   Reply to topic    Bike Chat Forums Index -> Politics & Current Affairs All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 38, 39, 40 ... 54, 55, 56  Next
Page 39 of 56

 
 You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum

Read the Terms of Use! - Powered by phpBB © phpBB Group
 
Debug Mode: ON - Server: birks (www) - Page Generation Time: 0.13 Sec - Server Load: 0.38 - MySQL Queries: 17 - Page Size: 156.97 Kb