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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:49 - 06 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
the head of memberstates will have to step in.
,



So you're saying France is going to break WTO rules and EU rules to give the UK a bespoke agreement right?

Breaking most favoured nation clause and thus will suffer 48bn in WTO penalties just coz?

Very Happy
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Val
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PostPosted: 16:03 - 06 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:


Do tell us all what’s been agreed. I’d love to know as much as you claim to.
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Assuming you can read here is colour coded Withdrawal Agreement with all already agreed parts:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_agreement_coloured.pdf

As I have mention EU guidelines are clear - nothing else like trade deal will be agreed before 29 March 2019 when the UK is 3rd country.

Means the whole fuss about trade deal is BS. EU can sign any fudge that means legally nothing to help May sign WA and get transitional period. As you have said nobody knows what the trade deal will look like. And nobody will know until 2020 DEc.
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mpd72 CPT
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PostPosted: 16:19 - 06 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
mpd72 CPT wrote:


Do tell us all what’s been agreed. I’d love to know as much as you claim to.
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Assuming you can read here is colour coded Withdrawal Agreement with all already agreed parts:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_agreement_coloured.pdf

As I have mention EU guidelines are clear - nothing else like trade deal will be agreed before 29 March 2019 when the UK is 3rd country.

Means the whole fuss about trade deal is BS. EU can sign any fudge that means legally nothing to help May sign WA and get transitional period. As you have said nobody knows what the trade deal will look like. And nobody will know until 2020 DEc.


Poor diversion tactic Village. Now please, for the third time, enlighten us all to what has already been agreed...

Do tell us all what’s been agreed. I’d love to know as much as you claim to.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 19:31 - 06 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
Not compatible with the future of EU - the new EU federation plan: http://spinelligroup.eu/2018manifesto

The silver lining in Brexit is it allows the EU to develop further free without the UK veto and the constant moaning Thumbs Up


Laughing the Spinelli Group, authors of A Fundamental Law of the European Union. Enjoy that when it arrives. You'll be begging for refuge from the totalitarian state. Are we going to have to rescue you Europeans one more time, with similar ingratitude? No. By the time you realise what's happened the entire continent will have been occupied. Lucky for you, you're already here. Wink
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 17:07 - 07 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
the head of memberstates will have to step in.
,



So you're saying France is going to break WTO rules and EU rules to give the UK a bespoke agreement right?

Breaking most favoured nation clause and thus will suffer 48bn in WTO penalties just coz?

Very Happy


Breaking MFN? better tell Norway they're going to jail then.

48bn penalties from the WTO?

please substantiate this claim.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 17:21 - 07 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

On WTO rule infringements, this thread by an actual WTO negotiator, rather than takeaway worker Itchy is how it really works


https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1033661460126355456

1. As part of Brexit, the UK decides not to collect customs on the NI border, This decision is a breach of the WTO's Most Favoured Nation Principle So with those hypotheticals, the UK is in now breach of the WTO Rules. So what happens?

Automatically? Nothing.

A breach on its own has NO consequences of ANY kind unless another WTO Member raises it.

2. The WTO itself, as in the Secretariat who work there, have only one formal method of commenting on the issue at all.

This is through the 'Trade Policy Review (TRP)' of the United Kingdom, for which the WTO Secretariat prepares a report in which they could include this.

3. / The TPR process sees every WTO Member come before the rest of the organization every few years for a discussion of their trade regime.

The Secretariat's TPR Reports thorough, written by very smart people and have all the legal force of Harry Potter/Dr. Who fan-fiction.

4. / But let's say a WTO Member does raise it. This would be a political decision the Member knows would annoy the UK and EU, but one a Member could make.

The Member's first step would probably be to raise the issue in the relevant WTO Committee. In this case likely, the 'CTG'.

5. The CTG, or Committee on Trade in Goods meets regularly to discuss issues raised by Members (screenshot below is snippet from the March 2018 CTG agenda to show you the kind of things it looks at).

It's always chaired by an Ambassador and is by WTO standards, pretty important

6. So, a Member puts the UK's no-border NI-border on the CTG agenda and the day rolls around.

What happens in practice?

When the meeting gets to this agenda item, the Chair gives the Member who raised the issue the floor, and they get to complain about the UK on the record.

7. Next, the Chair gives the floor to the UK's representative.

Given the importance of the issue, the UK Mission may even have sent in their Permanent Representative (Ambassador) to the WTO to bat for them, but it could just as easily be someone else from the Mission.

8. Now, the UK representative is not obliged to say anything. They can also say, "Thanks, well noted, we'll pass that along." Many Members do.

However, more likely, the UK rep would make a full-throated defense of UK policy.

9. Next, the Chair opens the floor to other Members to pile on, and they can add their statements on the record, before giving the UK and the original complainant one more chance to speak.

Then that's it. The meeting moves on to the next agenda item.

10. It's vital to understand that even if every single other WTO Member, the England Cricket Team and the Balinese Goddess of Plenty chime in to slam what the UK is doing, nothing changes in practice.

It's a pretty shitty day for the person behind the UK flag and that's it.

11. As cathartic as yelling at the UK was in the Committee, let's assume some Members are still upset about this and decide to escalate.

Their next stage is to seek consultations with the UK, toward an eventual WTO dispute.

12. This is a 60 day period during which the UK and the complaining Member are supposed to meet and try to resolve the issue without recourse to lawyers.

This is the first stage in the Dispute Settlement Process which is LONG (see below),

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlhKDphXcAAZ-Uy.jpg

13. If the UK can't talk this Member down or buy them off, a WTO Panel is convened and the case begins.

Keep in mind, this would be a WTO Member making a political decision to spend millions of dollars in legal fees to annoy the UK. It's a big call to make.

14. n the first real consequences for the UK, they must now defend themselves in this dispute. This means paying civil servants or outside counsel to fight a complex dispute.

WTO cases are expensive to defend (but compared to other Brexit adjustment costs, probably negligible).

15. So the UK fights the case and hypothetically, the panel finds their open NI border to be in breach.

If by this point, the border hasn't already been resolved in some way, the UK would get another chance to discuss compensation with the complainant (buying them off).

16. If the UK can't or won't buy the complainant off, and doesn't want to change it's NI policy the WTO Panel can authorize 'retaliation'.

This means working out how much the UK's NI-Border has disadvantaged the complainant, and let them levy higher tariffs on the UK to balance.

17. So let's recap.

At the end of this process, it's maybe 2021/22.

The UK has had a mean comment inserted about it in a 400 page report, endured some formal complaining, paid some lawyers a bit of money, and may now face some tariffs it wasn't facing before.


18.The UK has repeatedly said it wants to be a model WTO Member and to support the system. All this could hang a cloud over that, as would an uncertified schedule.

BUT, anyone making claims about WTO consequences needs to understand the practicalities of the above process. /End

final bit especially for Itchy at the reality of a WTO claim.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 18:39 - 07 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
final bit especially for Itchy at the reality of a WTO claim.


Laughing

So your new unicorn is this:

That no nation would ever dare put in a dispute WE ARE THE BRITISH EMPIRE. None whatsoever, almost exactly like the EU would roll over and give the UK everything they wanted.

But even if they did it would be a long and complex process that would cost so much that nobody would ever dare put in a dispute.

But even if they dared to do this it would take a very long time.

Therefore there would be no penalties for a very long time.

In case you haven't been watching tariffs can be threatened or put in place until the dispute is settled sometimes it never even gets to the WTO beyond the initial filing.

This was seen with Bombardier vs Boeing. Threats of 292% tariff despite the 1980 agreement for 0% on aviation.

It never got beyond filing a WTO complaint as they got round it by building a plant in the USA.

So Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Ford, Airbus etc can get round the tariffs by moving their plants out of the UK you say?


Laughing
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Val
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PostPosted: 18:11 - 08 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
Blah blah no deal fine blah blah WTO



I hate to busrt your no deal buble, but according to the UK's government own Department for International Trade (DIT) :

Quote:
Those negotiations remain deadlocked over avoiding a hard border in Ireland, the EU having rejected the prime minister’s Chequers proposals for future trade.

Asked to reveal the number of countries which had promised to roll over agreements, the Department for International Trade (DIT) said it “does not hold any information relevant to your request”.

It said it was up to the EU to “notify the other parties to its international agreements” that it was willing for the UK to still enjoy their benefits, adding: “The notification will issue in due course.”


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-roll-over-deals-uk-eu-counties-airline-rights-nuclear-safety-a8527731.html

That means so called "No deal" imaginary WTO options is a total disaster - not a single country has agreed or can agree on deal with UK without EU approval, means 750 deals with at least 168 non-EU countries can't also be agreed in case UK doesn't find solution or agree on NI backtops proposed by EU and sign the Withdrwawal Agreement.

These are actual facts as opposed to your unicorns Rob Laughing
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 19:10 - 08 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
Not a single country can agree on deal with UK without EU approval.

Out, out, out.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 08:26 - 09 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Out, out, out.



Laughing

So you cease to be a vassal state of one group and become a vassal state of another?

Right now it's a toss up of:

EU do not want

US not sure if want

PRC bloc - which just postponed the potato and meat trade because sailing their ships into the SCS.
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mpd72 CPT
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PostPosted: 12:16 - 12 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

"European Sovereignty" you say? If this Tweet is real, the true aspirations of the EU are out there for all to see.

I wonder if this "geopolitical situation" includes turning Russia into a common enemy? Or maybe he means the Muslim invasion of Europe, which his Federal State has created and assisted?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm4bHaxX4AAxuU0.jpg
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mpd72 CPT
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PostPosted: 09:35 - 14 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

And today's Project Fear attempt on the radio news is.....

"House prices will collapse if we get a no deal Brexit"...

Go on, why's that then? Because we might actually get control over the millions coming here to live? Millions who the government wont count as immigrants, based on answers to a question on a flawed passenger survey, asking people if they plan on staying for over 6 months?

We can't build houses fast enough. Why is that, when the population isn't growing that fast according to official figures? My town has doubled in house numbers in the last 30 years and there are still plans for another 20,000 houses.

Is it British people renting these houses? Is it feck, you only have to walk around the town centre lately to realise where they're all coming from. During office working hours, English is a second language in the town centre.
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Last edited by mpd72 CPT on 11:38 - 15 Sep 2018; edited 1 time in total
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Ste
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PostPosted: 09:59 - 14 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

20,000 houses? Oh well, Brexit could be the end of the world anyway.

"Brexit really COULD be the end of the world: EU won't share information about space debris crashing back to earth if there is no deal, ministers warn"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6164195/Britain-reliant-United-States-warnings-ASTEROIDS-Brexit.html

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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 10:51 - 14 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
20,000 houses? Oh well, Brexit could be the end of the world anyway.

"Brexit really COULD be the end of the world: EU won't share information about space debris crashing back to earth if there is no deal, ministers warn"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6164195/Britain-reliant-United-States-warnings-ASTEROIDS-Brexit.html

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Brilliant Laughing

Jesus wept, the fear tactics by the establishment reach new heights (or lows)
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 10:53 - 14 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
20,000 houses? Oh well, Brexit could be the end of the world anyway.

"Brexit really COULD be the end of the world: EU won't share information about space debris crashing back to earth if there is no deal, ministers warn"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6164195/Britain-reliant-United-States-warnings-ASTEROIDS-Brexit.html

The world's smallest violin player, just for you!


This is really fascinating, and yet another indication that an (empty, in this case) threat acts both ways, and yet another piece of utter fakery by the Daily Mail.

The EU’s Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) has the vast operating budget of approximately £9m per annum (!). It's still in a formative stage, and isn't operational, and the current EU is still dependant on the USA's efforts (Russia and China also have similar initiatives). The huge (!) budget is spent on maintenance of existing facilities.

Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain are the only EU countries with assets available ("telescopes"!) than can track low-earth and geostationary things whizzing around. This is what the EU SST is supposed to be going track, not dangerous stuff incoming from the rest of the solar system or deep space. It's basically so we know what might ping into our satellites and when, and consider this for new launches.

When we leave the EU, if we're shut out, the EU SST will lose its most powerful assets situated in the UK, plus they'll have to stump up in the future. We're already involved with the USA's capability anyway, which will continue.

So the sky won't fall on our heads any more than it already does (that's about 9,000 of objects fallen from orbit so far, 18,000 up there now, approxinately).
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 16:12 - 14 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think when Brexit happens god will unleash the apocalypse

Billions will fall victim to a terrible strain of CaNsA

All rainpals will instantly vanish, causing Billions more to die from riding unprotected in the rain.

Shame on all you leave voters
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TaffyTDM
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PostPosted: 19:52 - 14 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
And today's Project Fear attempt on the radio news is.....

"House prices will collapse if we get a no deal Brexit"...

Go on, why's that then? Because we might actually get control over the millions coming here to live, who the government wont count as immigrants, based on answers to a question on a flawed passenger survey, asking people if they plan on staying for over 6 months?

We can't build houses fast enough. Why is that, when the population isn't growing that fast according to official figures? My town has doubled in house numbers in the last 30 years and there are still plans for another 20,000 houses.

Is it British people renting these houses? Is it feck, you only have to walk around the town centre lately to realise where they're all coming from. During office working hours, English is a second language in the town centre.


The going rate for bricks and mortar falling, so as to return to something you pay to live in, rather than a lottery ticket for the retired/emigrating, isnt in my view a negative.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 20:05 - 14 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree. I don't think it would be wonderful if they dropped a lot, but some drop followed by price stagnation for 18 1/2 years approximately might be useful.
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 20:21 - 14 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just found out that Unicorns will not be allowed through the chunnel.
France won't let their sun shine cross the channel either.

I always love the way "May", "Might" and "Could" become debating facts.
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mpd72 CPT
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PostPosted: 00:54 - 15 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

TaffyTDM wrote:
mpd72 CPT wrote:
And today's Project Fear attempt on the radio news is.....

"House prices will collapse if we get a no deal Brexit"...

Go on, why's that then? Because we might actually get control over the millions coming here to live, who the government wont count as immigrants, based on answers to a question on a flawed passenger survey, asking people if they plan on staying for over 6 months?

We can't build houses fast enough. Why is that, when the population isn't growing that fast according to official figures? My town has doubled in house numbers in the last 30 years and there are still plans for another 20,000 houses.

Is it British people renting these houses? Is it feck,

you only have to walk around the town centre lately to realise where they're all coming from. During office working hours, English is a second language in the town centre.


The going rate for bricks and mortar falling, so as to return to something you pay to live in, rather than a lottery ticket for the retired/emigrating, isnt in my view a negative.


Me neither. That’s why i’m Astounded at the pro uncontrolled immigration stance of the left. What an odd bunch.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 01:04 - 15 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
I agree. I don't think it would be wonderful if they dropped a lot, but some drop followed by price stagnation for 18 1/2 years approximately might be useful.


To me it wouldn't matter. So what if they drop? I own my own house and if I decide to move the house I buy will be cheaper. I don't really lose.

My kids that are in rented accommodation might have a better chance of getting a house as well.

Anyway, cheap houses won't go down much, they will always be in demand. Expensive houses won't go down much, rich people will still be rich. It will be the middle class ones where stupid numpties get relatively huge mortgages to keep up with the Joneses.

If they drop enough I'll buy one and become a pseudo snob Thumbs Up
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Val
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PostPosted: 02:56 - 16 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Back to the actual thread about actual Brexit negotiations:

Next week in Slazburg EU is expected to tell May:

Quote:
“come back in two months when we can fit you in”


That speaks volumes about so called "negotiations".

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-salzburg-eu-no-deal-chequers-theresa-may-a8537981.html
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mpd72 CPT
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PostPosted: 10:31 - 16 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
Back to the actual thread about actual Brexit negotiations:

According to the far left shit rag, and very anti Brexit "The Independent", Next week in Slazburg EU is expected to tell May:

Quote:
“come back in two months when we can fit you in”


That speaks volumes about so called "negotiations".

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-salzburg-eu-no-deal-chequers-theresa-may-a8537981.html


Corrected for you.

They're never going to give us a decent deal, even if we had someone in charge who actually wanted to leave the EU and had some negotiating skills.

A No Deal Brexit seems quite appealing to me and far better than the watered down piece of shit the Chequers Deal allegedly represents.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 11:33 - 16 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

No deal Brexit is the hardest Brexit possible. Drooling

House prices need to crash be corrected.

It'll make a difference to the millennials who currently face living in rented accomodation for the their entire snowflake lives.

It'll also make a different to the millennials who stand to inherit houses from their baby boomer parents.

How's the for equality? Mr. Green
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