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Posted: 17:21 - 07 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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On WTO rule infringements, this thread by an actual WTO negotiator, rather than takeaway worker Itchy is how it really works
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1033661460126355456
1. As part of Brexit, the UK decides not to collect customs on the NI border, This decision is a breach of the WTO's Most Favoured Nation Principle So with those hypotheticals, the UK is in now breach of the WTO Rules. So what happens?
Automatically? Nothing.
A breach on its own has NO consequences of ANY kind unless another WTO Member raises it.
2. The WTO itself, as in the Secretariat who work there, have only one formal method of commenting on the issue at all.
This is through the 'Trade Policy Review (TRP)' of the United Kingdom, for which the WTO Secretariat prepares a report in which they could include this.
3. / The TPR process sees every WTO Member come before the rest of the organization every few years for a discussion of their trade regime.
The Secretariat's TPR Reports thorough, written by very smart people and have all the legal force of Harry Potter/Dr. Who fan-fiction.
4. / But let's say a WTO Member does raise it. This would be a political decision the Member knows would annoy the UK and EU, but one a Member could make.
The Member's first step would probably be to raise the issue in the relevant WTO Committee. In this case likely, the 'CTG'.
5. The CTG, or Committee on Trade in Goods meets regularly to discuss issues raised by Members (screenshot below is snippet from the March 2018 CTG agenda to show you the kind of things it looks at).
It's always chaired by an Ambassador and is by WTO standards, pretty important
6. So, a Member puts the UK's no-border NI-border on the CTG agenda and the day rolls around.
What happens in practice?
When the meeting gets to this agenda item, the Chair gives the Member who raised the issue the floor, and they get to complain about the UK on the record.
7. Next, the Chair gives the floor to the UK's representative.
Given the importance of the issue, the UK Mission may even have sent in their Permanent Representative (Ambassador) to the WTO to bat for them, but it could just as easily be someone else from the Mission.
8. Now, the UK representative is not obliged to say anything. They can also say, "Thanks, well noted, we'll pass that along." Many Members do.
However, more likely, the UK rep would make a full-throated defense of UK policy.
9. Next, the Chair opens the floor to other Members to pile on, and they can add their statements on the record, before giving the UK and the original complainant one more chance to speak.
Then that's it. The meeting moves on to the next agenda item.
10. It's vital to understand that even if every single other WTO Member, the England Cricket Team and the Balinese Goddess of Plenty chime in to slam what the UK is doing, nothing changes in practice.
It's a pretty shitty day for the person behind the UK flag and that's it.
11. As cathartic as yelling at the UK was in the Committee, let's assume some Members are still upset about this and decide to escalate.
Their next stage is to seek consultations with the UK, toward an eventual WTO dispute.
12. This is a 60 day period during which the UK and the complaining Member are supposed to meet and try to resolve the issue without recourse to lawyers.
This is the first stage in the Dispute Settlement Process which is LONG (see below),
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlhKDphXcAAZ-Uy.jpg
13. If the UK can't talk this Member down or buy them off, a WTO Panel is convened and the case begins.
Keep in mind, this would be a WTO Member making a political decision to spend millions of dollars in legal fees to annoy the UK. It's a big call to make.
14. n the first real consequences for the UK, they must now defend themselves in this dispute. This means paying civil servants or outside counsel to fight a complex dispute.
WTO cases are expensive to defend (but compared to other Brexit adjustment costs, probably negligible).
15. So the UK fights the case and hypothetically, the panel finds their open NI border to be in breach.
If by this point, the border hasn't already been resolved in some way, the UK would get another chance to discuss compensation with the complainant (buying them off).
16. If the UK can't or won't buy the complainant off, and doesn't want to change it's NI policy the WTO Panel can authorize 'retaliation'.
This means working out how much the UK's NI-Border has disadvantaged the complainant, and let them levy higher tariffs on the UK to balance.
17. So let's recap.
At the end of this process, it's maybe 2021/22.
The UK has had a mean comment inserted about it in a 400 page report, endured some formal complaining, paid some lawyers a bit of money, and may now face some tariffs it wasn't facing before.
18.The UK has repeatedly said it wants to be a model WTO Member and to support the system. All this could hang a cloud over that, as would an uncertified schedule.
BUT, anyone making claims about WTO consequences needs to understand the practicalities of the above process. /End
final bit especially for Itchy at the reality of a WTO claim. ____________________ '00 Aprilia RS50 > '92 Honda CG > '99 Yamaha Fazer > '91 Yamaha RXS > '79 Suzuki X5 > 01' Honda Cg > 07' Honda Cg > 82' Kawasaki Z200 > suzuki gsxr 400 gk73a > honda vfr 400 NC30> Yamaha RD350 YPVS F2 > Kawasaki ZZR 600 D1 > Yamaha TZR 250 2MA >Suzuki TL1000R > Yamaha TDR250 > Honda 929 blade > Suzuki SV1000 > Honda H100
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Itchy Super Spammer
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Val |
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Posted: 18:11 - 08 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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Rob Fzs wrote: | Blah blah no deal fine blah blah WTO
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I hate to busrt your no deal buble, but according to the UK's government own Department for International Trade (DIT) :
Quote: | Those negotiations remain deadlocked over avoiding a hard border in Ireland, the EU having rejected the prime minister’s Chequers proposals for future trade.
Asked to reveal the number of countries which had promised to roll over agreements, the Department for International Trade (DIT) said it “does not hold any information relevant to your request”.
It said it was up to the EU to “notify the other parties to its international agreements” that it was willing for the UK to still enjoy their benefits, adding: “The notification will issue in due course.” |
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-roll-over-deals-uk-eu-counties-airline-rights-nuclear-safety-a8527731.html
That means so called "No deal" imaginary WTO options is a total disaster - not a single country has agreed or can agree on deal with UK without EU approval, means 750 deals with at least 168 non-EU countries can't also be agreed in case UK doesn't find solution or agree on NI backtops proposed by EU and sign the Withdrwawal Agreement.
These are actual facts as opposed to your unicorns Rob ____________________ Adrian Monk: Unless I'm wrong, which, you know, I'm not...
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Kawasaki Jimbo |
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Kawasaki Jimbo World Chat Champion
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Itchy |
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- Super Spammer
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Posted: 12:16 - 12 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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"European Sovereignty" you say? If this Tweet is real, the true aspirations of the EU are out there for all to see.
I wonder if this "geopolitical situation" includes turning Russia into a common enemy? Or maybe he means the Muslim invasion of Europe, which his Federal State has created and assisted?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm4bHaxX4AAxuU0.jpg ____________________ TZR250 2MA road, TZR250 1KT road, TZR250 2MA race, TDR250, YZF-750R Boost colours.
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- Super Spammer
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Posted: 12:24 - 12 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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Third time lucky maybe?
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- Super Spammer
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Posted: 09:35 - 14 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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And today's Project Fear attempt on the radio news is.....
"House prices will collapse if we get a no deal Brexit"...
Go on, why's that then? Because we might actually get control over the millions coming here to live? Millions who the government wont count as immigrants, based on answers to a question on a flawed passenger survey, asking people if they plan on staying for over 6 months?
We can't build houses fast enough. Why is that, when the population isn't growing that fast according to official figures? My town has doubled in house numbers in the last 30 years and there are still plans for another 20,000 houses.
Is it British people renting these houses? Is it feck, you only have to walk around the town centre lately to realise where they're all coming from. During office working hours, English is a second language in the town centre. ____________________ TZR250 2MA road, TZR250 1KT road, TZR250 2MA race, TDR250, YZF-750R Boost colours.
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Last edited by - on 11:38 - 15 Sep 2018; edited 1 time in total |
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Ste |
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Ste Not Work Safe
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Polarbear |
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Polarbear Super Spammer
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Posted: 10:51 - 14 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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Brilliant
Jesus wept, the fear tactics by the establishment reach new heights (or lows) ____________________ Triumph Trophy Launch Edition |
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Riejufixing |
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
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Posted: 10:53 - 14 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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This is really fascinating, and yet another indication that an (empty, in this case) threat acts both ways, and yet another piece of utter fakery by the Daily Mail.
The EU’s Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) has the vast operating budget of approximately £9m per annum (!). It's still in a formative stage, and isn't operational, and the current EU is still dependant on the USA's efforts (Russia and China also have similar initiatives). The huge (!) budget is spent on maintenance of existing facilities.
Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain are the only EU countries with assets available ("telescopes"!) than can track low-earth and geostationary things whizzing around. This is what the EU SST is supposed to be going track, not dangerous stuff incoming from the rest of the solar system or deep space. It's basically so we know what might ping into our satellites and when, and consider this for new launches.
When we leave the EU, if we're shut out, the EU SST will lose its most powerful assets situated in the UK, plus they'll have to stump up in the future. We're already involved with the USA's capability anyway, which will continue.
So the sky won't fall on our heads any more than it already does (that's about 9,000 of objects fallen from orbit so far, 18,000 up there now, approxinately). |
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bhinso |
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bhinso World Chat Champion
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Posted: 16:12 - 14 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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I think when Brexit happens god will unleash the apocalypse
Billions will fall victim to a terrible strain of CaNsA
All rainpals will instantly vanish, causing Billions more to die from riding unprotected in the rain.
Shame on all you leave voters
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TaffyTDM |
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TaffyTDM Spanner Monkey
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Posted: 19:52 - 14 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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mpd72 CPT wrote: | And today's Project Fear attempt on the radio news is.....
"House prices will collapse if we get a no deal Brexit"...
Go on, why's that then? Because we might actually get control over the millions coming here to live, who the government wont count as immigrants, based on answers to a question on a flawed passenger survey, asking people if they plan on staying for over 6 months?
We can't build houses fast enough. Why is that, when the population isn't growing that fast according to official figures? My town has doubled in house numbers in the last 30 years and there are still plans for another 20,000 houses.
Is it British people renting these houses? Is it feck, you only have to walk around the town centre lately to realise where they're all coming from. During office working hours, English is a second language in the town centre. |
The going rate for bricks and mortar falling, so as to return to something you pay to live in, rather than a lottery ticket for the retired/emigrating, isnt in my view a negative. |
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Skudd |
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Skudd Super Spammer
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- Super Spammer
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Posted: 00:54 - 15 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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TaffyTDM wrote: | mpd72 CPT wrote: | And today's Project Fear attempt on the radio news is.....
"House prices will collapse if we get a no deal Brexit"...
Go on, why's that then? Because we might actually get control over the millions coming here to live, who the government wont count as immigrants, based on answers to a question on a flawed passenger survey, asking people if they plan on staying for over 6 months?
We can't build houses fast enough. Why is that, when the population isn't growing that fast according to official figures? My town has doubled in house numbers in the last 30 years and there are still plans for another 20,000 houses.
Is it British people renting these houses? Is it feck,
you only have to walk around the town centre lately to realise where they're all coming from. During office working hours, English is a second language in the town centre. |
The going rate for bricks and mortar falling, so as to return to something you pay to live in, rather than a lottery ticket for the retired/emigrating, isnt in my view a negative. |
Me neither. That’s why i’m Astounded at the pro uncontrolled immigration stance of the left. What an odd bunch. ____________________ TZR250 2MA road, TZR250 1KT road, TZR250 2MA race, TDR250, YZF-750R Boost colours.
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Polarbear |
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Polarbear Super Spammer
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Val |
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Val World Chat Champion
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- Super Spammer
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Posted: 10:31 - 16 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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Corrected for you.
They're never going to give us a decent deal, even if we had someone in charge who actually wanted to leave the EU and had some negotiating skills.
A No Deal Brexit seems quite appealing to me and far better than the watered down piece of shit the Chequers Deal allegedly represents. ____________________ TZR250 2MA road, TZR250 1KT road, TZR250 2MA race, TDR250, YZF-750R Boost colours.
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Ste |
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Ste Not Work Safe
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Posted: 11:33 - 16 Sep 2018 Post subject: |
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No deal Brexit is the hardest Brexit possible.
House prices need to crash be corrected.
It'll make a difference to the millennials who currently face living in rented accomodation for the their entire snowflake lives.
It'll also make a different to the millennials who stand to inherit houses from their baby boomer parents.
How's the for equality? |
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 5 years, 222 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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