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The Shaggy D.A. |
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The Shaggy D.A. Super Spammer
Joined: 12 Sep 2008 Karma :
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Posted: 23:49 - 06 Nov 2018 Post subject: |
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Life's too short to worry about numbers.
I beat 3-1 odds of being deaded/some level of quadraspazzed/potato ____________________ Chances are quite high you are not in my Monkeysphere, and I don't care about you. Don't take it personally.
Currently : Royal Enfield 350 Meteor
Previously : CB100N > CB250RS > XJ900F > GT550 > GPZ750R/1000RX > AJS M16 > R100RT > Bullet 500 > CB500 > LS650P > Bullet Electra X & YBR125 > Bullet 350 "Superstar" & YBR125 Custom > Royal Enfield Classic 500 Despatch Limited Edition (28 of 200) & CB Two-Fifty Nighthawk > ER5 |
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M.C |
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M.C Super Spammer
Joined: 29 Sep 2015 Karma :
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Posted: 23:53 - 06 Nov 2018 Post subject: |
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ljw wrote: | Hello. I'm new here. Been lurking reading up on stuff on BCF and other places as I get my shit together for DAS. Anyway this specific topic is something I was thinking about for a while and looking into.
Sadly I think those numbers your got work out at around 0.1% chance of death in 10,000 miles, i.e. one in a thousand. Pretty much tallies with this which I was using: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/447673/motorcyclist-casualties-2013-data.pdf
The relevant thing I wanted to compare against was the overall risk of life in general. Looking myself up in the actuarial life tables, I already have, as it happens, a 1/1000 chance of death this year (as a mid 30s male). So, adding 10k miles fully doubles the risk of death this year, but on the other hand, I wasn't really worrying much about dying this year, so even doubling the risk is not a great worry.
Obviously something is going to kill you eventually. Using the life tables I worked out that if I ride 6,000 miles per year for the rest of my life (unlikely!) I get around a 3/100 chance that it is a motorcycle accident that eventually gets me. Seems okay, given that something has to in the end. |
I don't fear death, I fear being horribly injured and unable to check myself into Dignitas. |
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thx1138 |
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thx1138 World Chat Champion
Joined: 06 Oct 2005 Karma :
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kramdra |
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kramdra World Chat Champion
Joined: 28 Oct 2010 Karma :
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Posted: 01:25 - 07 Nov 2018 Post subject: |
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TLDR...
It is the hesitant, slow, and less agile and less observant motorcyclists that die. I may ride like an utter cunt some days but it is also what keeps me safe - primarily lane splitting VS sitting in a car tailgate sandwich, one of the more dangerous situations to be in. Example - https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=JC5J_1541472144
Especially in the rain where cars panic, drive slower, less predictable, and tail gate much closer.
Bad weather, ride faster. Get out of bad situations as quickly as possible in a controlled and safe way. It will not appear safe to an oblivious car when you go between them at a decent speed in the wet. |
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Phil_B |
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Phil_B Borekit Bruiser
Joined: 26 Nov 2013 Karma :
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talkToTheHat |
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talkToTheHat World Chat Champion
Joined: 21 Feb 2012 Karma :
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Johanna |
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Johanna Nova Slayer
Joined: 21 Jul 2018 Karma :
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talkToTheHat |
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talkToTheHat World Chat Champion
Joined: 21 Feb 2012 Karma :
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Riejufixing |
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Riejufixing World Chat Champion
Joined: 24 Jun 2018 Karma :
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talkToTheHat |
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talkToTheHat World Chat Champion
Joined: 21 Feb 2012 Karma :
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Johanna |
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Johanna Nova Slayer
Joined: 21 Jul 2018 Karma :
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M.C |
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M.C Super Spammer
Joined: 29 Sep 2015 Karma :
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talkToTheHat |
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talkToTheHat World Chat Champion
Joined: 21 Feb 2012 Karma :
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 5 years, 163 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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