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How many bikes on the road each day (boring statistics)

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The Shaggy D.A.
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PostPosted: 23:49 - 06 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Life's too short to worry about numbers.

I beat 3-1 odds of being deaded/some level of quadraspazzed/potato
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M.C
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PostPosted: 23:53 - 06 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

ljw wrote:
Hello. I'm new here. Been lurking reading up on stuff on BCF and other places as I get my shit together for DAS. Anyway this specific topic is something I was thinking about for a while and looking into.

Sadly I think those numbers your got work out at around 0.1% chance of death in 10,000 miles, i.e. one in a thousand. Pretty much tallies with this which I was using: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/447673/motorcyclist-casualties-2013-data.pdf

The relevant thing I wanted to compare against was the overall risk of life in general. Looking myself up in the actuarial life tables, I already have, as it happens, a 1/1000 chance of death this year (as a mid 30s male). So, adding 10k miles fully doubles the risk of death this year, but on the other hand, I wasn't really worrying much about dying this year, so even doubling the risk is not a great worry.

Obviously something is going to kill you eventually. Using the life tables I worked out that if I ride 6,000 miles per year for the rest of my life (unlikely!) I get around a 3/100 chance that it is a motorcycle accident that eventually gets me. Seems okay, given that something has to in the end.

I don't fear death, I fear being horribly injured and unable to check myself into Dignitas.
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thx1138
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PostPosted: 23:56 - 06 Nov 2018    Post subject: Re: How many bikes on the road each day (boring statistics) Reply with quote

Johanna wrote:
Kitesurfing can result in etting hoisted into the air by the kite


like this Shocked

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dd8vT1KR4RE
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kramdra
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PostPosted: 01:25 - 07 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

TLDR...

It is the hesitant, slow, and less agile and less observant motorcyclists that die. I may ride like an utter cunt some days but it is also what keeps me safe - primarily lane splitting VS sitting in a car tailgate sandwich, one of the more dangerous situations to be in. Example - https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=JC5J_1541472144
Especially in the rain where cars panic, drive slower, less predictable, and tail gate much closer.

Bad weather, ride faster. Get out of bad situations as quickly as possible in a controlled and safe way. It will not appear safe to an oblivious car when you go between them at a decent speed in the wet.
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Phil_B
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PostPosted: 01:54 - 07 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Teflon-Mike wrote:
I believe that one of the most dangerous pursuits by injury per participant per hour, is actually diving.


I always thought it was quite safe, maybe that's just what I tell myself! Although after a quick search on the internet about dangerous hobbies, some of the reasons they give for scuba diving did make me laugh Smile

Still.....life is for living!
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talkToTheHat
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PostPosted: 06:49 - 07 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

GP Friend "I'm a safe* driver, I've never had a crash. But it can't be safe zooming past cars, coming out of nowhere at those speeds you do..."

Me: "I would consider it effective risk management to get out of the way of a driver that isn't looking in their mirrors as as soon as possible and making sufficient noise as to advertise one's presence is probably a bonus."

GP "But how do you know if someone's seen you?"

me "Well you can't, but you can see when someone's either not looking or is looking at the wrong thing. Mirrors works both ways"

GP "You can't seriously be telling me you look to see where a driver's looking before you pass them"

Me "And to asses whether they're likely to pull out of a junction on me, or brake suddenly, having finally looked back at the road."

GP stunned silence

my thankfully internal monologue: have you just worked out the bikes you didn't see filtering past were making extra noise in the hope that you'd wake the fuck up before you solved the transplant organ shortage?

The only way i can explain the level of concern trolling that goes on is there is some kind of subconcious causal link between being a mildly oblivious driver and the risk of killing the one motorcyclist you know so the obvious thing to do is discourage them from riding.

I wonder if there's numbers on the risk of killing someone else during an activity, in some kind of hours per micromort kind of format.[/i]
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Johanna
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PostPosted: 08:33 - 07 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

ljw wrote:
Sadly I think those numbers your got work out at around 0.1% chance of death in 10,000 miles, i.e. one in a thousand.

It depends whether you use a British 'billion', i.e. a million, million as opposed to an American billion which is a thousand million. I initially got 1/1000 as well until I reran the calculation with UK billion.

Although you might be right. Assuming 320 deaths per year with your rate and an average travel distance of 10,000 miles there would be 320,000 bikes on the road. Assuming 2,500 miles per bike per year there would be about 1,300,000 bikes. Apparently there are 1.23 million registered motorcycles according to statistics. So your numbers fit better.
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talkToTheHat
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PostPosted: 11:00 - 07 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

So riding a bike if risk is proportional to miles it puts me at a 0.1% chance of death over 10,000 miles in a year?

Interestingly that's a micromort per every 10 miles. Interestingly that's an increase from the one per 6 miles cited on wikipedia

Has that just doubled my risk of dying this year? Or is that accounted for in the statistics because of the risks exposed to everyone.

Also, for those who havn't seen it, ROSPA: https://www.rospa.com/rospaweb/docs/advice-services/road-safety/motorcyclists/common-motorcycle-crash-causes.pdf

and HURT https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/MOTORCYCLE_ACCIDENT_CAUSE_FACTORS_AND_IDENTIFICATION_OF_COUNTERMEASURES_VOLUME_I-_TECHNICAL_REPORT.pdf
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 12:00 - 07 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

talkToTheHat wrote:

Thanks for posting that; it leads to:

"Ride Safe: How to Avoid Common Motorcycle Crashes"

https://www.rospa.com/rospaweb/docs/advice-services/road-safety/motorcyclists/ridesafe.pdf

Perhaps that could be pinned in the "New Bikers" section? Who could be asked about that?
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talkToTheHat
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PostPosted: 12:48 - 07 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

2276 miles/year is probably representative of annual rider mileage, so we're looking at billion as 1000 million. The long scale (aka British) billion has fallen into disuse since Harld Wilson endorsed the international english usage of the short scale. Note that most of yerp and french and spanish influenced countries world wide are using the long scale.

This is an interesting contrast to the adoption of metric/SI
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Johanna
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PostPosted: 13:09 - 07 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

talkToTheHat wrote:
2276 miles/year is probably representative of annual rider mileage, so we're looking at billion as 1000 million. The long scale (aka British) billion has fallen into disuse since Harld Wilson endorsed the international english usage of the short scale. Note that most of yerp and french and spanish influenced countries world wide are using the long scale.

This is an interesting contrast to the adoption of metric/SI

My excuse is that I was born in Scandinavia. Billion there is a million million. So I looked it up to be sure but still got it wrong.

Anyway. This bikes thing seems to be statistically hazardous but whatever... I enjoy it so will keep doing it. Smile
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M.C
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PostPosted: 19:05 - 07 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

kramdra wrote:
I may ride like an utter cunt some days but it is also what keeps me safe - primarily lane splitting VS sitting in a car tailgate sandwich, one of the more dangerous situations to be in. Example - https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=JC5J_1541472144

That's more an example of why you use your mirrors, he wasn't sandwiched, he was at the front of the concertina.

kramdra wrote:
Bad weather, ride faster.

I'll add to the classic BCF riding tips Smile
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talkToTheHat
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PostPosted: 10:10 - 08 Nov 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Johanna wrote:
Anyway. This bikes thing seems to be statistically hazardous but whatever... I enjoy it so will keep doing it. Smile


Right on. Something's going to be the end of you. I'd rather it be something fun than dropping dead staring at my PC screen...

And mitigate the risk as best you can with post test training.

Sorry for assuming british on you.
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