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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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cdlxxvi
Nearly there...



Joined: 13 Feb 2012
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PostPosted: 16:31 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
bhinso wrote:
M.C wrote:
Yes and no, as no deal hurts the EU as well you would have thought they'd have an interest in making sure a deal gets through Parliament, assuming we hadn't already revealed our bluff Brick Wall


Exactly. No deal will hurt them too, but I think the hatred of the UK beats that, a bit like the whole triple A rating I mentioned last week.

Personally I don't care, I've got more than enough Gammon to keep me going.


Of course it hurts EU "too" - but it hurts us orders of magnitude more.

To put in perspective, if we stab ourselves in the stomach on their sofa, it hurts them "too", because it leaves them with a messed up sofa while we fight for our life.
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Riejufixing
World Chat Champion



Joined: 24 Jun 2018
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PostPosted: 17:05 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
bhinso wrote:
This is getting absolutely nowhere.
And still 6 more weeks to go of:
Day 1: TM going to Ireland (Northern/Republic) to talk soft borders/backstop. Ireland says fcuk off.
Day 2: TM loses vote.
Day 3: TM goes to Brussels, EU say nah mate (PS fcuk off).

Why don't the EU ever come here?


The eu's representatives have visited from time to tome.

The talks may be ongoimng, but there is less and less time. There will be things going on "behind the scenes" that we will not see reported.
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Riejufixing
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Joined: 24 Jun 2018
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PostPosted: 17:16 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
cdlxxvi wrote:
Of course it hurts EU "too" - but it hurts us orders of magnitude more.

To put in perspective, if we stab ourselves in the stomach on their sofa, it hurts them "too", because it leaves them with a messed up sofa while we fight for our life.


Why do you persist in vomiting out such such rubbish? Just as bad as green-ink man was. If there's a "no deal" Brexit, Ireland will suffer about the same amount a the UK in terms of reduced GDP (about 3.8%), with the next -worst-hit countries being the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgiun and the Czech Republic losing about 1.2% to 0.9% respectively. The EU as a whole will suffer about a 1.5% reduction, which is not "an order of magnitude more".

(Edit: Source: IMF, Jul 2018)

It's got nothing to do with utter tosh like bloody sofas, either.
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bhinso
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Joined: 21 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: 17:36 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
But will they be prepared to accept that if it means hurting UK and teaching us a lesson?
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cdlxxvi
Nearly there...



Joined: 13 Feb 2012
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PostPosted: 17:41 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:
Of course it hurts EU "too" - but it hurts us orders of magnitude more.

To put in perspective, if we stab ourselves in the stomach on their sofa, it hurts them "too", because it leaves them with a messed up sofa while we fight for our life.


Why do you persist in vomiting out such such rubbish? Just as bad as green-ink man was. If there's a "no deal" Brexit, Ireland will suffer about the same amount a the UK in terms of reduced GDP (about 3.8%), with the next -worst-hit countries being the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgiun and the Czech Republic losing about 1.2% to 0.9% respectively. The EU as a whole will suffer about a 1.5% reduction, which is not "an order of magnitude more".

(Edit: Source: IMF, Jul 2018)

It's got nothing to do with utter tosh like bloody sofas, either.


You very conveniently chose the worst case scenario for EU27 (1.5%).
If we are consistent and choose the IMF worst case scenario for UK (7.8% - https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/CR/2018/cr18317.ashx), it is indeed not an order of magnitiude worse, but "only" half of it. Let's say it's a stab in a leg, not in a stomach.
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cdlxxvi
Nearly there...



Joined: 13 Feb 2012
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PostPosted: 18:07 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
bhinso wrote:
But will they be prepared to accept that if it means hurting UK and teaching us a lesson?


It's not about teaching lessons. Any Brexit is more damaging to UK than to EU27, and yet they signed off some kind of damage control plan, while our government cannot agree with itself on anything.
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Riejufixing
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Joined: 24 Jun 2018
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PostPosted: 18:27 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
cdlxxvi wrote:
You very conveniently chose the worst case scenario for EU27 (1.5%).


No, I chose a chart published in the Guardian from that time. If you want to pick best cases and worst cases for different places from different documents or at opposite ends of the scale to suit your own agenda, that's up to you.
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Riejufixing
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Joined: 24 Jun 2018
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PostPosted: 18:28 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
cdlxxvi wrote:
Any Brexit is more damaging to UK than to EU27


No. That's not so. Stop doing that.
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M.C
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Joined: 29 Sep 2015
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PostPosted: 18:29 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
cdlxxvi wrote:
bhinso wrote:
Exactly. No deal will hurt them too, but I think the hatred of the UK beats that, a bit like the whole triple A rating I mentioned last week.

Personally I don't care, I've got more than enough Gammon to keep me going.


Of course it hurts EU "too" - but it hurts us orders of magnitude more.

To put in perspective, if we stab ourselves in the stomach on their sofa, it hurts them "too", because it leaves them with a messed up sofa while we fight for our life.

Great example Rolling Eyes
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cdlxxvi
Nearly there...



Joined: 13 Feb 2012
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PostPosted: 19:49 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:
You very conveniently chose the worst case scenario for EU27 (1.5%).


No, I chose a chart published in the Guardian from that time. If you want to pick best cases and worst cases for different places from different documents or at opposite ends of the scale to suit your own agenda, that's up to you.


You quoted a 2018 IMF report. This is where your 1.5% came from:


IMF wrote:

We find that the level of output of EU27 countries falls by between 0.06 and up to 1.5 percent in the long run. The range of estimates depends on whether we assume a “soft” or “hard” Brexit, or whether trade or other transmission channels are accounted for. These are likely losses that should be interpreted with caution, given the important uncertainty characterizing the empirical estimations.


The counterpart report on Brexit effect on UK says:

IMF wrote:

The estimates suggest that UK's real output would be between 2.6 and 3.9 percent lower under the free-trade agreement scenario than under a scenario of continued EU membership, and between 5.2 and 7.8 percent lower under the WTO scenario than under a no-Brexit scenario. However, there are large uncertainties around each of the estimates which are only partially captured by this range


So comparing the same source and the same ends of the scale we have estimates ranging from 0.06 vs 2.6, i.e. UK being 43 times worse off, to 1.5 vs 7.8, i.e. UK being 5 times worse off.

Perhaps this is the time to stop admiring the splendour of Brexitain's new clothes?
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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Joined: 09 Oct 2015
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PostPosted: 20:12 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 wrote:
So, let me get this straight, having a massive trade deficit with the EU, means we pay them less tariffs than they have to pay us, but we're worse off than they are by receiving more tax than paying....
Righto - Straight from the Dainne Abbot Remaoners school of Maths.


Tariffs are paid to the customs authority like a tax, but won't the importers just pass the cost on to the consumer? It makes equivalent British goods more attractive to the home crowd but tariffs don't make us wealthier.[/i][/u]
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Im-a-Ridah
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Joined: 20 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: 20:43 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
bhinso wrote:
M.C wrote:
Yes and no, as no deal hurts the EU as well you would have thought they'd have an interest in making sure a deal gets through Parliament, assuming we hadn't already revealed our bluff Brick Wall


Exactly. No deal will hurt them too, but I think the hatred of the UK beats that, a bit like the whole triple A rating I mentioned last week.

Personally I don't care, I've got more than enough Gammon to keep me going.


There is no hatred of the UK. They are just trying to scare others into not leaving the federal dictatorship. Verhofstaft, the leader of the Eur-fanatics, loves our country and even has a Union Jack fridge.
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M.C
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Joined: 29 Sep 2015
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PostPosted: 21:05 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Im-a-Ridah wrote:
bhinso wrote:
Exactly. No deal will hurt them too, but I think the hatred of the UK beats that, a bit like the whole triple A rating I mentioned last week.

Personally I don't care, I've got more than enough Gammon to keep me going.


There is no hatred of the UK. They are just trying to scare others into not leaving the federal dictatorship. Verhofstaft, the leader of the Eur-fanatics, loves our country and even has a Union Jack fridge.

I do wonder if the EU are willing to take the hit this time, assuming the stories about a no deal brexit causing recessions in other countries are true, just to prove a point and stop other countries from leaving.
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Riejufixing
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Joined: 24 Jun 2018
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PostPosted: 23:00 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
"Senior European diplomats said that the British government would be given enough in the way of legal assurances to persuade Geoffrey Cox, the attorney-general, to change his advice that the backstop could be used to trap the country in a customs union. “There will be sufficient changes to allow Mr Cox to give a pass to the agreement,” a veteran European ambassador said"

- The Times (paywall).

Not sure that's enough. We could not be trapped in the backstop against our will anyway, as the Attorney-General has already said, and the EU would not like it either (EUSM access with no payments).

Still, if it helps get "the deal" through, it's good.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 14:15 - 16 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
I didn't expect this. Crying or Very sad

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-47252834

Nor this, although there are too many aid charities anyway, they get in each other's way and multiply the admin costs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47142848
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 14:32 - 16 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Nor this, although there are too many aid charities anyway, they get in each other's way and multiply the admin costs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47142848

It looks as if the EU is on a belt-tightening drive. Who else will it cut funds to, I wonder.
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linuxyeti
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Joined: 06 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: 14:54 - 16 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 CPT wrote:


Let's stick to facts for a change.



Hahahaha, I can't believe you wrote that, you genuinely do have a sense of humour, I sit here so surprised !! Laughing Laughing Laughing
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