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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 11:42 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:


And pray, with which of these have we got deals ready for 29 March, so we can have all that fresh, cheap, delicious Singaporean tomatoes and Indian beef?


Exactly the same number that we currently enjoy being an EU member Trigger./


So you say that we should abandon the deal currently facilitating around 50% of our trade in a month, with almost nothing ready to replace it?

Some people would say that moving out of a house without another one ready to move into is not the smartest move.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 11:52 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:

Yes, EU27 will suffer some, but their export to us is worth 3% of their GDP, while our export to EU27 is worth 13% of our GDP.
(https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/)

In other words, if we headbutt their front door, they will have a porch to mop, but we will be in a hospital. They won't be happy, but we'll be much worse off.


Ah, that old Remainer trick of using the statistics for just one country on one side, then grouping all 27 together on the other.


Strangest thing. It seemed to me until now that Brexit is about one country leaving the union, with 27 others staying in. Must be some case of remoan blindness, from which I am now miraculously cured Laughing
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 12:24 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

MPD's point is valid.

You can't simply say that it'll only be a 3% hit to the EU as a whole.

When the Spanish citrus industry goes over a cliff* and the German car industry takes a catastrophic* hit to it's exports will the remaining EU countries all divvy up to support them?

Just thought I'd use a bit of Remainer language there Smile
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 14:50 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

panrider_uk wrote:
MPD's point is valid.

You can't simply say that it'll only be a 3% hit to the EU as a whole.

When the Spanish citrus industry goes over a cliff* and the German car industry takes a catastrophic* hit to it's exports will the remaining EU countries all divvy up to support them?

Just thought I'd use a bit of Remainer language there Smile


Let's discuss based on some numbers - what's the value of Spanish & German exports at stake?
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 14:53 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:


So you say that we should abandon the deal currently facilitating around 50% of our trade in a month, with almost nothing ready to replace it?

Some people would say that moving out of a house without another one ready to move into is not the smartest move.


What deals will these be? The free trade deals the EU managed to agree with the Balliwick of Jersey, Akrotiri and Dhekelia or Agola?

You're still pretending that list doesn't exist aren't you?


Sir, I mean the deal that we have with the rest of EEA, which includes 27 EU member states with which we currently trade as easily as within UK. This is half of our international trade, and will be very significantly hit if we reach North Korea level of independence. We have nothing ready to replace it.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 15:19 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:
Sir, I mean the deal that we have with the rest of EEA, which includes 27 EU member states


This will be the same EEA who flog us way more than they buy from us.
I'm not sure you've grasped this whole "Balance of Trade" idea Miss.

We do the majority of our exports already outside of the EU and this trend is growing at an alarming rate and has been for 10 years now. You know this because you've now been shown at least 10 times recently, you just choose to ignore fact which doesn't fit your agenda.

Here, have that graph to ignore once again...

https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/EU_and_other_exports_over_time_v1.png


Are you saying that it's not a problem at all if we place significant obstacles overnight in half of our international trade?
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 16:35 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:


Are you saying that it's not a problem at all if we place significant obstacles overnight in half of our international trade?


It won’t be the end of the world and in the long run we’ll benefit from it.
Personally, like a lot of businesses around Dover, I’ll do very well out of it in the short and long term.

Your naive life experience and lack of knowledge on business, hints at you being either a student, a work dodger, public sector or a combination of the 3, so it won’t affect you anyway.


The value of our exports to EU is 13% of UK GDP. Let's naively assume that this is the upper bound of GDP loss should Brexit go full Nigel; what effect will that have and how long will it last before we benefit?

For context, the 2009 recession was less than 3% contraction. This resulted in >800k lost jobs, and real wages took 10 years to recover. No biggie, right?
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M.C
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PostPosted: 16:44 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
It was our decision to trade our sustenance and influence for a passport design, so we deserve the consequences - unless, confronted with reality, we decide that it's better to be rational after all.

And you'll achieve this via BCF? Eh?
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 16:57 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
if we headbutt their front door, they will have a porch to mop, but we will be in a hospital. They won't be happy, but we'll be much worse off.


I liked the sofa analogy better Sad
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 17:40 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:


The value of our exports to EU is 13% of UK GDP. Let's naively assume that this is the upper bound of GDP loss should Brexit go full Nigel; what effect will that have and how long will it last before we benefit?

For context, the 2009 recession was less than 3% contraction. This resulted in >800k lost jobs, and real wages took 10 years to recover. No biggie, right?


So we might have to pay a small tarrif on 13% of gdp but will be in receipt of the same tarrif on a figure much higher than that 13%, in the form of tarrif a the EU must pay us to sell here.

Nice one Dianne! Mathematical genius at work.


So the introduction of tariffs, customs, permissions and what have you will not result in any economic hindrance (since few pages ago you "explained" how tariffs don't raise prices)? Makes perfect sense Laughing
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 19:06 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

So if that's how you think tariffs work perhaps we can just sit back and wait for the EU27 to pay us to buy their goods. Win-win? You're not seeing the full picture.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/29/18117792/trump-china-tariffs-xi-g20-trade-war[url]
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 19:21 - 20 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:

So the introduction of tariffs, customs, permissions and what have you will not result in any economic hindrance (since few pages ago you "explained" how tariffs don't raise prices)? Makes perfect sense Laughing


They'll make EU imports less attractive against home grown products and non EU imports. They'll generate work around port areas, bring extra income into the public purse through tariff surplus.

On top of this, we'll finally be able to strike deals with countries we want a deal with, which unfortunately are the ones the EU refuses to allow to compete on their patch.

The establishment wont allow the public to get their own way though, so I wouldn't start crying yet.


It's difficult to see why there are tariff-free agreements at all, the tariffs being such benefit for everyone Very Happy

And pray, when will this heaven come to be? We are leaving on the 29th, as it stands, with no deal. Will it take an hour, a day, maybe (shudder) even a week?
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 00:30 - 21 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

They still haven't sorted out the UK-Ireland border issue.

Perhaps it's time for an EU customs border around all of Ireland (not Northern Ireland, obviously), except the EU-UK border.
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 09:51 - 21 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll dare say it: Does having Ireland as part of the UK benefit us?

Could we not just tell them to go it alone? Can we not just tell the North and South of Ireland to combine and 'man up'?
They're not connected to the UK Mainland anyway and by doing so would allow them to combine and we could forget that border.

(I'm genuinely thick) There's mention of the Good Friday Agreement and the border problem (if it even is a real one). How would altering that Good Friday Agreement cause problems? Surely it's Statute Law and can be altered anyway?

Be gentle - having a fragile day!
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 09:59 - 21 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sister Sledge wrote:
I'll dare say it: Does having Ireland as part of the UK benefit us?

Could we not just tell them to go it alone? Can we not just tell the North and South of Ireland to combine and 'man up'?
They're not connected to the UK Mainland anyway and by doing so would allow them to combine and we could forget that border.

(I'm genuinely thick) There's mention of the Good Friday Agreement and the border problem (if it even is a real one). How would altering that Good Friday Agreement cause problems? Surely it's Statute Law and can be altered anyway?

Be gentle - having a fragile day!


I think there may be some history there....
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