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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 20:09 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
UK MPs have voted by 412 to 202 for Prime Minister Theresa May to ask the EU for a delay to Brexit.

It was a very interesting evening. Pressure has sort-of been put back on the EU to do something meaningful. They have not long to do it. The timescale is also very interesting.

My own emotions seem to swing wildly from great hope to deep despair and back again. Now, they're just starting on the up again.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 20:16 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:


So let me get this right: all those MPs who have constantly been whining about the uncertainty, and the damage it does to business, have just voted for more uncertainty and damage to business? Laughing



They didn't have a choice because to not try for an extension would mean that we leave with nothing in place, and they voted against doing that yesterday.

Of course, assuming an extension is granted there will be nothing stopping them voting for revocation and (potentially) another referendum during the extended period. This they will have to do if it becomes evident that Parliament will not vote for any deal acceptable to the EU.

It goes on and on and whilst the two main parties pull themselves apart, Farage and Batten/Lennon will be rubbing their hands as their Parties now stand a chance of getting a few MPs in the next election.

What would be interesting, would be a by-election between now and the end of whatever extension is agreed, to see just how much support the respective Parties have.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 20:29 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
Ste wrote:
UK MPs have voted by 412 to 202 for Prime Minister Theresa May to ask the EU for a delay to Brexit.

It was a very interesting evening. Pressure has sort-of been put back on the EU to do something meaningful. They have not long to do it.


Now they totally have to give us the unicorn we democratically voted to get from them.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 20:33 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
Of course, assuming an extension is granted there will be nothing stopping them voting for revocation and (potentially) another referendum during the extended period. This they will have to do if it becomes evident that Parliament will not vote for any deal acceptable to the EU.

What's acceptable to the EU, and to anyone genuinely interested in leaving the EU, is the current WA. It was voted down on the 12th, but among those supporting it were David Davis and Graham Brady. Various of the ERG have supported it. That's called "being realists". The vote will be done again I think on the 25th March.

Diggs wrote:
It goes on and on and whilst the two main parties pull themselves apart, Farage and Batten/Lennon will be rubbing their hands as their Parties now stand a chance of getting a few MPs in the next election.

I reckon the UKIP will get 2% if we're not out by the next election, and that will be rump BNP/EDL voters. The Brexit party could get 20%.

Diggs wrote:
What would be interesting, would be a by-election between now and the end of whatever extension is agreed, to see just how much support the respective Parties have.


Well, polls give some indication, even if it's not precise. The latest I can find says:

Pollster Fieldwork Con Lab LDem UKIP Grn NET
TNS 11-Mar-2019 41 31 8 6 6 Con+10
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 20:35 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
It was a very interesting evening. Pressure has sort-of been put back on the EU to do something meaningful. They have not long to do it.

Now they totally have to give us the unicorn we democratically voted to get from them.

What a silly thing to say. Why are you obsessed with "unicorns"? They (Edit: the EU) don't have to do anything, of course.


Last edited by Riejufixing on 21:07 - 14 Mar 2019; edited 1 time in total
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 20:50 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:


So let me get this right: all those MPs who have constantly been whining about the uncertainty, and the damage it does to business, have just voted for more uncertainty and damage to business? Laughing



They didn't have a choice because to not try for an extension would mean that we leave with nothing in place, and they voted against doing that yesterday.

Of course, assuming an extension is granted there will be nothing stopping them voting for revocation and (potentially) another referendum during the extended period. This they will have to do if it becomes evident that Parliament will not vote for any deal acceptable to the EU.

It goes on and on and whilst the two main parties pull themselves apart, Farage and Batten/Lennon will be rubbing their hands as their Parties now stand a chance of getting a few MPs in the next election.

What would be interesting, would be a by-election between now and the end of whatever extension is agreed, to see just how much support the respective Parties have.


They do have a choice, because none of this is binding. They’re carrying out these countless vote stunts to fool the hard of thinking into the false thought, of them having no choice, so had to cancel a proper Brexit.

People like..... you know...
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 20:58 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

If they succeed in delaying things until the end of May, I think the results of the European election would be very interesting indeed...

The thing to remember about all these negotiations is the EUs baseline negotiating position is that they do not want the UK to leave.

The only way to actually leave, is to leave. Come out THEN negotiate. We should have done it shortly after the referrendum.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:02 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
crackpots, loons and independent candidates could have a much stronger chance of success than ever before as people turn away from career politicians.

Anything could happen and that includes nothing happens. Sad

bhinso wrote:
If there was a common sense party, I'd vote for them Thumbs Up

Would you like a wiper for your visor with that common sense party? Razz


Ste for PM.
What (more) could go wrong?
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:04 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, are we about to fight the European elections? Shocked
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iooi
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PostPosted: 21:09 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:

The only way to actually leave, is to leave. Come out THEN negotiate. We should have done it shortly after the referrendum.


We had the strongest hand and threw it away. Just like the 600 odd idiots have done again in the last few weeks.

EU elections in may will be fun... I can see all the sitting mp's jumping at the chance to stand to get on the gravy train...

As come the next Uk General election they will be out on the backsides...
Either people will not vote or the minority parties will get a big protest vote.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 21:11 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
So, are we about to fight the European elections? Shocked


Government's motion:

That this house:

(1) notes the resolutions of the house of 12 and 13 March, and accordingly agrees that the government will seek to agree with the European Union an extension of the period specified in article 50(3);

(2) agrees that, if the house has passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1) (b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then the government will seek to agree with the European Union a one-off extension of the period specified in article 50(3) for a period ending on 30 June 2019 for the purpose of passing the necessary EU exit legislation; and

(3) notes that, if the house has not passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then it is highly likely that the European council at its meeting the following day would require a clear purpose for any extension, not least to determine its length, and that any extension beyond 30 June 2019 would require the United Kingdom to hold European Parliament elections in May 2019.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:12 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I vote in UK elections but I've never voted in the EU elections.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:13 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

So we will "fight" the EU elections? Ludicrous.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 21:41 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 21:52 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
I vote in UK elections but I've never voted in the EU elections.

I voted UKIP last time (2014-now). I'm in the same "region" as Mr Farage (South East England).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_East_England_(European_Parliament_constituency)

If there's a next time, I will vote for the Brexit party.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 23:44 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't find the voting numbers but apparently Parliament "overwhelmingly" voted not to have a second referendum despite approving a delay to Article 50. I'm surprised because I really thought they were hoping the electorate would bail them out. I can only assume they think Leave would win again and put them back to square one. The EU will likely only approve a delay if there's a new approach, and a second referendum seemed to fit that bill. There are no new ideas, so a default No Deal on 29th March still seems likely. Bring it on, let's move on.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 23:59 - 14 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
I can't find the voting numbers but apparently Parliament "overwhelmingly" voted not to have a second referendum despite approving a delay to Article 50. I'm surprised because I really thought they were hoping the electorate would bail them out. I can only assume they think Leave would win again and put them back to square one. The EU will likely only approve a delay if there's a new approach, and a second referendum seemed to fit that bill. There are no new ideas, so a default No Deal on 29th March still seems likely. Bring it on, let's move on.


Mays extension is only until June 30th, purely to push her thrice polished EU scripted turd again. If we don’t agree it, she’ll drag out the can kicking a lot longer until they come up with a proper excuse to stitch up anyone who wants to leave.

What stinks here is British MP’s appear to be colluding with the EU against the people. It seems so absurd, it doesn’t feel real.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 00:13 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
I can't find the voting numbers but apparently Parliament "overwhelmingly" voted not to have a second referendum despite approving a delay to Article 50. I'm surprised because I really thought they were hoping the electorate would bail them out. I can only assume they think Leave would win again and put them back to square one. The EU will likely only approve a delay if there's a new approach, and a second referendum seemed to fit that bill. There are no new ideas, so a default No Deal on 29th March still seems likely. Bring it on, let's move on.


The vote was 334 to 85 against a second referendum, after Labour Party whipped its MPs to abstain. The numbers are of some interest.

I think that this shows the general inclination of those that voted to get us out of the EU.

The delay to A.50TEU is conditional on the WA being accepted (as I hope it will be), so that necessary legislation can be completed (the serious delay caused by Labour, the Remainers and the ERG has meant that legislation such as the Agriculture Bill 2017-2019 has been held up - it's only at the Report Stage).

I would say that exiting "no deal" on the 29th is unlikely, unfortunately. It was my second choice. I would guess that if the WA is not accepted, then we will stay in the EU for a long time, and that will not be good for Brexit. We might get a Brino, like Labour's permanent customs union, which is highly undesirable.
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 00:20 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

'You can checkout any time you like. But you can never leave....
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 00:22 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

May is blackmailing the country into accepting her and the EU’s thrice polished turd, aka the non leaving agreement.

I suspect she’ll need to up her security somewhat over the coming years. Karma
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 00:31 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mentalboy wrote:
'You can checkout any time you like. But you can never leave....


But we can leave. Had the vote on the 12th. gone differently, there might not even have been a delay to leaving.

Perhaps it will go better next time. I do hope so. The alternative seems to be staying *in* the EU for another two years, give or take, to "sort things out". Personally, I would far rather actually legally leave the EU, and "sort things out" if need be from the*outside*!

Better out than in. If we're still in., unfortunate things might happen to keep us there. If we're out, the only thing that can get us back in is a new application to join, from scratch, a new referendum on joining, and acceptance of any conditions the EU impose on our joining. I do not think that's likely to happen any time soon!
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 00:36 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
The vote was 334 to 85 against a second referendum, after Labour Party whipped its MPs to abstain.

Why would anyone abstain in this? Thinking

Riejufixing wrote:
I think that this shows the general inclination of those that voted to get us out of the EU.

The delay to A.50TEU is conditional on the WA being accepted (as I hope it will be).

It's been rejected twice, so why would anyone think it worth waiting for a third rejection?
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 00:46 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
mentalboy wrote:
'You can checkout any time you like. But you can never leave....


But we can leave....


Obviously an attempt at light hearted humour went over some people's heads!
Can I refer you to a small band that goes by the name of The Eagles and the, apparently, little known track 'Hotel California'?
Rolling Eyes
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 00:56 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
The delay to A.50TEU is conditional on the WA being accepted (as I hope it will be).

It's been rejected twice, so why would anyone think it worth waiting for a third rejection?

Because circumstances alter cases, and it is almost certainly the only way that we will get out of the EU. Even some in the ERG voted for it second time, including Mr D. Davis, who I think is OK. It will be "Vote for this, or we will have to stay in for about two years", and if we are not outside in two years, you *know* what will happen. We won't leave.
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Shaft
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PostPosted: 00:58 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="Riejufixing"]
mentalboy wrote:
'You can checkout any time you like. But you can never leave....


But we can leave. Had the vote on the 12th. gone differently, there might not even have been a delay to leaving.

Perhaps it will go better next time. I do hope so.[quote]

Christ on a bike, I'm not sure I've ever encountered anyone as thick as you, how many times do you need to be told that May's WA isn't leaving, it's counting us out of the EU, but counting us in to all their rules and regulations, what ever they might be, potentially forever and with us having absolutely no say or influence on any of them.

If you don't believe anyone here when they say it's a bad deal, check out the HoC, who despite being 2/3 in favour of remaining, have twice landslide voted it out, because even the remainers understand that if you're going to be tightly connected to the EU, you have to have some say in how it runs and May's deal doesn't offer that, in any way.

It's a bad deal, it's been a bad deal in both forms, as offered to the vote and it isn't going to get any better, third time around.

But it's OK, May has told the HoC over 100 times (and the public many 100s) 'No deal is better than a bad deal', so of course, we'll be leaving on a no deal basis.

Oh, hang on............... Rolling Eyes
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