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Sister Sledge |
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Sister Sledge World Chat Champion
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The Shaggy D.A. |
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The Shaggy D.A. Super Spammer
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Posted: 09:49 - 31 Oct 2019 Post subject: |
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Why would they go through the hassle of rigging it when the odds are massively in their favour anyway?
From £7,206.8m ticket sales year ending March 2019 :-
£4,128.5m paid out
£864.8m lottery duty
£303.9m retailer's commission
Which leaves £1,909.6m for the pigs at the trough. For the year.
[edit] https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/life-changing/where-the-money-goes ____________________ Chances are quite high you are not in my Monkeysphere, and I don't care about you. Don't take it personally.
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Last edited by The Shaggy D.A. on 13:26 - 31 Oct 2019; edited 1 time in total |
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The Artist |
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The Artist Super Spammer
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- Super Spammer
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Posted: 10:51 - 31 Oct 2019 Post subject: |
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The Shaggy D.A. wrote: | Why would they go through the hassle of rigging it when the odds are massively in their favour anyway?
From £7,206.8 ticket sales year ending March 2019 :-
£4,128.5 paid out
£864.8 lottery duty
£303.9 retailer's commission
[b]Which leaves £1,909.6m for the pigs at the trough. For the year.[/b]
[edit] https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/life-changing/where-the-money-goes |
Which is a Canadian teacher's pension scheme. Why our government flogged this is anyone's guess. ____________________ TZR250 2MA road, TZR250 1KT road, TZR250 2MA race, TDR250, YZF-750R Boost colours.
Jaguar S Type 3.0 V6 Sport R, VW Transporter T5 GP LWB Shuttle 140ps DSG. |
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Polarbear |
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Polarbear Super Spammer
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Posted: 11:28 - 31 Oct 2019 Post subject: |
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mpd72 wrote: | The Shaggy D.A. wrote: | Why would they go through the hassle of rigging it when the odds are massively in their favour anyway?
From £7,206.8 ticket sales year ending March 2019 :-
£4,128.5 paid out
£864.8 lottery duty
£303.9 retailer's commission
[b]Which leaves £1,909.6m for the pigs at the trough. For the year.[/b]
[edit] https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/life-changing/where-the-money-goes |
Which is a Canadian teacher's pension scheme. Why our government flogged this is anyone's guess. |
If I remember correctly Richard Branson offered to run it as a non profit organisation but Camelot still got the operating rights, Back handers anyone? ____________________ Triumph Trophy Launch Edition |
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doggone |
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doggone World Chat Champion
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Posted: 11:34 - 31 Oct 2019 Post subject: |
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An odd thing is every now and then there are dozens sharing the prize, which suggests certain numbers are somehow thought to be more lucky, 7, 42, 12?
I did do it a 2 or 3 times when it first started.
But didn't win anything |
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MarJay |
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MarJay But it's British!
Joined: 15 Sep 2003 Karma :
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Posted: 11:52 - 31 Oct 2019 Post subject: Re: The National Lottery |
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Sister Sledge wrote: | Yeah yeah another National Lottery thread but I don't think this one has been covered.
I think it's rigged. (probably last person to realise too)
My reasoning being that when a jackpot happens, it's usually one or two people winning it. Now I'm cr*p with mathematics and calculating odds but surely the fact that so many tickets are bought (this especially applies to rollovers) you can't tell me that just one person picked the winning numbers.
(tin foil hat applied) I personally think that those running the lottery are actively seeking out combinations of numbers which make the lottery roll over or perhaps allow just one winner.
Could it be that footage of balls being drawn are pre-recorded or perhaps CGI/edited to match?
Anyone?
(I rarely place a line on the lottery) |
Ok... so if there are enough combinations of numbers for it to be millions to one to win, surely the odds of more than one person happening on that single combination are much greater? The idea is that the spread of the combinations of numbers is high, unless you're playing numbers based on a popular movie or TV show or something?
The chances of two people having the same combination of numbers must be similar to the chances of winning, because the lottery draw is just a randomised way of picking from the same options rather than someone using their brain to do it?
So yeah, it's rigged, but it's rigged by probability and the amount of possible permutations, not by some shadowy organisation CGIing the number pick.
I'm surprised that you could come to the point of working out that part of the probability but not make the leap that the lottery picking process is basically identical to someone picking the numbers in the street, the only differentiation being that people have attachments to certain numbers, and the lottery machines don't?
I really worry about the state of the world when so many people are prepared to jump to shadowy conspiracies about EVERYTHING, even something as naturally against the player without having to fuck about with CGI as the lottery is. Sheesh. ____________________ British beauty: Triumph Street Triple R; Loony stroker: KR1S; Track fun: GSXR750 L1; Commuter Missile: GSX-S1000F
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The Artist |
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The Artist Super Spammer
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MarJay |
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MarJay But it's British!
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BTTD |
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BTTD World Chat Champion
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The Artist |
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Ste Not Work Safe
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Sister Sledge |
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Sister Sledge World Chat Champion
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MarJay |
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MarJay But it's British!
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BTTD |
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Ste |
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Ste Not Work Safe
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Posted: 11:54 - 01 Nov 2019 Post subject: |
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jnw010 wrote: | It does seem like the jackpots have grown in size to more sensationalist levels while the number of winners has diminished. |
Yup, in 2015 they added 10 more balls to the draw.
"As of October the number of balls in the bucket will increase from 49 to 59. The lottery website cheerily sells it as a new feature: “more numbers to choose from”. The reality is there are now more numbers you’re not going to choose. The odds have become much worse. As a UK citizen, it’ll be more likely that Prince Charles is your dad than you choosing winning lottery numbers.
Up until now, to win the jackpot you had to match six balls out of 49, which has a probability of one in 13,983,816. A reasonably straightforward calculation. From October, matching six balls from 59 increases the odds to one in 45,057,474, an increase of 3.2 times. Sort of.
For us number nerds, the new rules are a gift because the probabilities have become more interesting. As well as increasing the number of balls, Camelot have also changed how the game works in two fundamental ways. First, while there are still the same smaller prizes for matching five, four and three balls, they have also added a new prize if you match exactly two. You win another lottery ticket. Which does not feel like a great prize. Is being allowed to try and win the same prizes again next time count as a prize in its own right?
Mathematically, it means that the probabilities are not quite as clear-cut. I calculated that the odds of matching only two numbers in a draw is one in 10.258, which means you have a 9.748% chance of playing again. This second chance comes in the form of a lucky dip ticket: six numbers picked at random.
I spoke to the press office at Camelot and confirmed that it is possible to then match two numbers on your lucky dip and win a third ticket, and so on. Technically, you could buy one ticket and keep winning free tickets for the rest of your life. But that is exceedingly unlikely, even by lottery standards.
This means the new odds of winning the jackpot of “one in 45,057,474” is actually incorrect. Because there is a 9.748% chance you’ll get a second go; a 0.9503% chance you’ll get three goes; 0.09264% four goes; 0.009031% five and so on. We can mathematically roll up all these vanishingly small probabilities and calculate the new odds of winning the jackpot on a single initial ticket purchased: one in 40,665,099. Only 2.9 times worse than before."
Extra 10 balls sauce: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/17/national-lottery-balls-bigger-prizes |
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Hetzer |
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Hetzer Super Spammer
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steve the grease |
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steve the grease Crazy Courier
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Ste |
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Ste Not Work Safe
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Posted: 22:08 - 01 Nov 2019 Post subject: |
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It's one in 40,665,099.
The jackpot isn't won every week. |
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bhinso |
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bhinso World Chat Champion
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 4 years, 174 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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