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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 18:28 - 19 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
Now who will benefit?

Let's say I am a shop assistant on 15k, and compete for a job with Slobodan the Shop-assistant. The Dear Leader promised that Slobo will be barred from these shores, so here's my vote for His excellent Party!
Once Slobo isn't here, I go to Mr Deben-Lewis my employer, demanding I now get paid 20k. He gives me a rai... and I wake up.

In your own example you're competing to get a job, you're not both in it yet. Slobo is eliminated, you get the £15k. As time goes by employers find there is now a shortage of candidates, which pushes wages up.

Say there were two jobs and you are both recruited. Slobo sends money home. When he goes back in 5 years he can afford a nice flat there. You put the same amount of money aside and in 5 years... you still haven't got enough for a deposit in the UK.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 19:35 - 19 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:
Now who will benefit?

Let's say I am a shop assistant on 15k, and compete for a job with Slobodan the Shop-assistant. The Dear Leader promised that Slobo will be barred from these shores, so here's my vote for His excellent Party!
Once Slobo isn't here, I go to Mr Deben-Lewis my employer, demanding I now get paid 20k. He gives me a rai... and I wake up.

In your own example you're competing to get a job, you're not both in it yet. Slobo is eliminated, you get the £15k. As time goes by employers find there is now a shortage of candidates, which pushes wages up.


I misused the word "compete". In our times of record low unemployment it's not a zero sum game.

Where competition exists: low skilled jobs vs automation. After Slobo leaves a 15k vacancy that cannot be filled, the wage increase won't happen - the company hasn't got enough margin. Instead of paying 2 people 20k each, they will replace both with one machine with yearly TCO of 25k.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 20:20 - 19 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
In our times of record low unemployment

Record figures. Do you believe them?

cdlxxvi wrote:
Instead of paying 2 people 20k each, they will one a machine with yearly TCO of 25k.

Convenient numbers. Would that machine be the 'Unicorn 500 Deluxe'?

If there are companies out there only surviving by paying tragic wages which the taxpayer has to top up, either the business is unviable and must go, or it needs to respect its employees.


Last edited by Kawasaki Jimbo on 22:15 - 19 Feb 2020; edited 1 time in total
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 21:33 - 19 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:
Instead of paying 2 people 20k each, they will one a machine with yearly TCO of 25k.

Convenient numbers. Would that machine be the 'Unicorn 500 Deluxe'?

If there are companies out there only surviving by paying tragic wages which the taxpayer has to top up, either the business is unviable and must go, or it needs to respect it's employees.


Does the brand matter? If yes, the last one I met today was an NCR, dunno about the model. It took my payment in a shop.
Earlier its buddy sold me a train ticket and another checked it. Yet another helped me over the phone.
50 years ago all of these would be full time human employees.

We are in full agreement that a business that doesn't pay well isn't viable. However, the replacement of unskilled labour with automation is inevitable. The way to deal with it is to provide skills that will open qualified, well paid jobs to the population - but this takes time and effort; immigrant-bashing is so much easier!
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 21:54 - 19 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see that eu trade commissioner, phil hogan, wrote (on the 11th, according to the FT!) a letter to the Dutch government encouraging the country’s parliament to ratify the Canada trade deal.

Mr Hogan provides assurances in the letter, dated February 11, that the level playing field requirements in the agreement — known as CETA — were “solid”.

The deal’s provisions on environmental and labour standards “are legally binding and enforceable through a dedicated dispute settlement mechanism”, Mr Hogan wrote.

His letter also recognises that there are no “monetary or trade sanctions” to enforce the level playing field, saying that “experience shows that sanctions are not proven to be the most effective instrument to address breaches of sustainable development provisions”.


So there's a bit of play on this right now, since the wretched eu seem to be trying to treat us differently.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 22:15 - 19 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
So there's a bit of play on this right now, since the wretched eu seem to be trying to treat us differently.

But we are different. EU/UK trade is much higher than EU/Canada. They believe we're a threat to EU prosperity if we compete outside of the EU's "level playing field." It's a protectionist racket wrapped up in principled talk of "freedoms."
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 22:30 - 19 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
The way to deal with it is to provide skills that will open qualified, well paid jobs to the population - but this takes time and effort;

Where was the motivation to upskill our own workforce when employers could just take on staff who have been educated and trained by other nations? They may even work for less because of the aforementioned disparity in cost of living. Abandoning an "underclass" of Britons couldn't end well.

cdlxxvi wrote:
immigrant-bashing is so much easier!

Criticising an immigration policy is one thing; calling it "immigrant bashing" is not the same, but that's been an easy way to dismiss valid concerns.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 22:46 - 19 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Neo-Luddite now Rolling Eyes

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Shaft
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PostPosted: 01:16 - 20 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Heard a brilliant one on the radio tonight, farmer banging on about how the immigration policy will kill his business, because he can't find any UK employees to take up his dairy herdsman position.

After being asked several times how much he was paying and swerving the answer, preferring to keep banging on about what a bad idea it was (all wrapped up in general brexit bashing) he finally admitted the basic was £35k, with the total package closer to £40K.

So, it's a skilled position, it's a fair assumption he won't be employing anyone who doesn't at least have a basic grasp of English and he's paying substantially more than the minimum.

Absolutely no impact on his business at all, he was just calling a National radio station to bang his head against the same brick wall as the likes of 476.

When are these saddos going to get over themselves and realise the play has moved on?

It must be awful to live in a place where all you have left is to be negative about everything.
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 08:55 - 20 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've sat back and watched others write what I was thinking. I couldn't agree more. What does stand out is lack of experience (likely due to age) creating a negative train of thought for one person. I've spotted it in other posts that person writes in too.
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MCN
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PostPosted: 09:15 - 20 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

How can anyone find anything that comes out of Pritti Patela 'agreeable'?

Patel is simply playing a Positive Discrimination Card in a gamenthatbwont affect her or her man's business interests.

Next we'll be suffering all the bullshite about how Trump is such a great thing for the American Working Man.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 13:19 - 20 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:
The way to deal with it is to provide skills that will open qualified, well paid jobs to the population - but this takes time and effort;

Where was the motivation to upskill our own workforce when employers could just take on staff who have been educated and trained by other nations? They may even work for less because of the aforementioned disparity in cost of living. Abandoning an "underclass" of Britons couldn't end well.


We're getting dangerously close to whataboutism, but let me remind you: UK workforce doesn't generally twiddle their thumbs. We don' have a labour oversupply problem.

Cutting low-paid immigration is a remedy for a nonexistent condition, and comes with significant side effects. It will cause shortage of workforce, from which companies have generally 3 ways out:
A) Pay more and stop growing (because we will not conjure up more workers).
B) Automate human jobs.
C) Fold or relocate.

Somehow Johnson's followers think that only A) is possible (wishful thinking), and that in a variety in which workforce growth materialises (unicorns).
We'll have a reality check on that one in due course.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 13:56 - 20 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
Cutting low-paid immigration is a remedy for a nonexistent condition, and comes with significant side effects. It will cause shortage of workforce, from which companies have generally 3 ways out:
A) Pay more and stop growing (because we will not conjure up more workers).
B) Automate human jobs.
C) Fold or relocate.

Somehow Johnson's followers think that only A) is possible (wishful thinking), and that in a variety in which workforce growth materialises (unicorns).
We'll have a reality check on that one in due course.

Well, let's have a reality check now. What's your evidence, precisely, that "Somehow Johnson's followers think that only A) is possible"?


Last edited by Riejufixing on 18:05 - 20 Feb 2020; edited 1 time in total
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 16:56 - 20 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Funny that Labours 4 day week, increased minimum wage and higher taxes on businesses was perfectly acceptable whereas the Torys, trying to protect low paid jobs for unskilled British workers is going to kill every business in the country.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 20:09 - 20 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
We don't have a labour oversupply problem.

Again, do you believe the unemployment figures? The gig economy, part-time workers, creative welfare designations...

cdlxxvi wrote:
Cutting low-paid immigration is a remedy for a nonexistent condition, and comes with significant side effects. It will cause shortage of workforce, from which companies have generally 3 ways out:
A) Pay more and stop growing (because we will not conjure up more workers).
B) Automate human jobs.
C) Fold or relocate.

A) Wages have been stagnant for years, and not because there was no growth.

B) Automation is always an employer's objective, even in STEM. With respect to supermarket self-service checkouts it's like comedian Micky Flanagan said, "I don't remember applying for the job." I won't use them, I support local jobs.

C) We've already agreed that an unviable business deserves to fold, and relocation in this globalised market has been a thing for years even while in the EU.
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 20:18 - 20 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

This ^^ so much.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 11:46 - 21 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:


cdlxxvi wrote:
Cutting low-paid immigration is a remedy for a nonexistent condition, and comes with significant side effects. It will cause shortage of workforce, from which companies have generally 3 ways out:
A) Pay more and stop growing (because we will not conjure up more workers).
B) Automate human jobs.
C) Fold or relocate.

A) Wages have been stagnant for years, and not because there was no growth.

B) Automation is always an employer's objective, even in STEM. With respect to supermarket self-service checkouts it's like comedian Micky Flanagan said, "I don't remember applying for the job." I won't use them, I support local jobs.

C) We've already agreed that an unviable business deserves to fold, and relocation in this globalised market has been a thing for years even while in the EU.


So I guess we agree that automation happens irrespective of immigration policy. Why then accelerate it by tightening the supply of work?

Re business folding: they pay too little and many are bad, we agree again. The question is: is it smart to make them disappear and replace them with nothing at all?
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 13:00 - 21 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
So I guess we agree that automation happens irrespective of immigration policy. Why then accelerate it by tightening the supply of work?

Re business folding: they pay too little and many are bad, we agree again. The question is: is it smart to make them disappear and replace them with nothing at all?


No, the question is: is it smart to spend your time whining on forums, contributing nothing and helping no one?
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Howling Terror
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PostPosted: 16:54 - 21 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Starting 2021, every musician, artist, actor, dancer, film crew will need a visa to come to the UK.

£244 for each visa (valid for 1 year)...

Their bank account shouldn't have dipped below £945 for 90 continuous days.

That'll be a great help to those just starting out. Rolling Eyes
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 17:07 - 21 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:


..... since the wretched eu seem to be trying to treat us differently.



It's entirely their prerogative, we have no say in the matter ..
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 17:41 - 21 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/eu-leaders-seek-to-break-budget-impasse-in-marathon-negotiations/ar-BB10eRCf?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignout

Sounds like it's kicking off.

"Budget talks are complicated further by Britain’s departure from the EU, which leaves a hole of at least 60 billion euros ($65 billion) in the budget that needs to be plugged by either cutting spending or making others pay more"

But..but... I thought Brexit was just bad for Britain, and the EU would be unaffected.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 17:59 - 21 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, don't we get all those 60 millions Euros + more back in EU subsidies?! Can't see how there's a hole when they won't be paying us out any more.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 18:11 - 21 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like how all the eastern bloc countries are called 'Friends of cohesion' (with Spain and Portugal thrown in), basically wanting money. The others (net contributors) are called frugal.
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 20:35 - 21 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I give the EU dream 2 years until it implodes. Hopefully no wars this time - looking at you Germany.
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Shaft
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PostPosted: 03:07 - 22 Feb 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:
So I guess we agree that automation happens irrespective of immigration policy. Why then accelerate it by tightening the supply of work?

Re business folding: they pay too little and many are bad, we agree again. The question is: is it smart to make them disappear and replace them with nothing at all?


No, the question is: is it smart to spend your time whining on forums, contributing nothing and helping no one?


Good luck with getting an answer to that question, it's been called out so many times it's not funny, but still it keeps coming back with yet more negative and unsubstantiated nonsense.
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