MAG tries to get a little bit too clever

[Bhud]

Of course I've got my opinions and won't bore anyone else with them.

But this new development is interesting from a strategic point of view. It doesn't have to even be about motorbikes at all. Just look at the options available in this poll:

https://www.mag-uk.org/mag-polls-motorcyclists-regarding-the-petrol-engine/

It's also very easy to predict (with fairly high probability) what happens next.

For £30, electric bike owners join MAG in increasing numbers (which is what MAG wants). Unintended consequence: they then impose their will on others, regarding the policy direction of MAG. Possible end result: MAG begins to start campaigning against petrol motorcycles, because it's what electric bike people (increasing proportion of their membership) want them to do. The petrol diehards then quit MAG. Then the electric bike lot do as well, because there was nothing to actually campaign about (i.e. electric motorcycles are not subject to emissions restrictions).

I'm not saying I'm in favour or against - it's boring. I'd probably be more active on BCF if I thought my views were majority ones anyway.

Just that this little strategem is interesting.

[Easy-X]

We've been here before but briefly: sale of new motorcycles might be affected from 2030 so we'll be burning dinosaur juice indefinitely until they stop selling even that. Many decades away. And TBF the existing electric motorcycles now aren't terrible, just limited by range and charge. Think of what they'll be like in 20 years!

Anyhoo, I have a plan to EFI a classic '80s bike and run it on bio-ethanol
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Husqvarna Vitpilen 401, Yamaha XSR700, Honda Rebel, Yamaha DT175, Suzuki SV650 (loan) Fazer 600, Keeway Superlight 125, 50cc turd scooter

[Ste]

Survey Monkey... we could really fuck up their results.

[GettinBetter]

Interesting point, but I seriously don't think the 'experts' who will be making those decisions have actually grasped the full ramifications of their decisions. It's a vast can of worms.

This page for instance says nothing about whether the resources are actually available to rollout electric vehicles for everyone.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/11/battery-batteries-electric-cars-carbon-sustainable-power-energy/

I read elsewhere in the past that the resources don't actually exist, so how far down the road will they go before they realise it can't be done, or least not to the extent they dream of.

I got a feeling they will ban fossil before the charging/replacement infrastucture is setup, only to realise all is not going to plan, then spend an eternity covering it up, pretending it's all fine.

I can't see the car batteries lasting 10 yrs, and what is the outlay for new batteries, or do you replace the whole car, most people don't keep a car 10 yrs, so the whole car will be judged upon the condition of the battery.
https://www.large.net/news/8au43qb.html

[Evil Hans]

Says it's open to all riders ... won't let you submit without entering a membership number or affiliated club name.

Do MAG go out of their way to annoy me, or are they just fuckwits?
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Triumph Sprint ST 1050. And it's Red.

[Fat Angry Scotsman]

[Ste]

[doggone]

[Ste]

[Bhud]

I'm sure I must have predicted this move by MAG, in a post a couple of years ago. However, I can't be bothered to find it right now.

The idea behind MAG was that riders were people who used motorcycles instead of cars as basic transport or as a means to work (e.g. couriers). This still happens a lot (e.g. Deliveroo riders) but MAG never managed to attract them as members because they ride unsexy scooters. Nevertheless it was about "rights", i.e. things that common people in the wider population found more acceptable. For example, a guy out on his own having fun on a nice day on a motorcycle doesn't have any rights, in the eyes of the general population. He's even considered a problem! But there are many people who use similar machines, creating exactly the same (or much more) emissions and noise to take them to work or to deliver pizzas, and society accepts to some degree that they have "rights". Because they have rights, it's possible for the leisure rider to be left in peace. This is how this thing has worked, to date.

The trouble is, electric bikes don't substitute for petrol ones because the energy density, recharging times, etc. just isn't there. The political and ideological framework is well ahead of the technology. It's putting the cart before the horse.

Oh, I know people will say with absolute conviction that it will be there in the future. Just around the corner, etc. It seems very convincing whenever someone, even a very smart person, has an honest belief in a future event, but this is merely an optimism bias. Self-driving cars, for example, were mentioned in the Queen's Speech a few years ago, but Elon was simply lying about where the state of tech development was at the time. Stuart Garner was going to revive the British motorcycle industry and he convinced a lot of people too. Those people weren't stupid - they were just wrong because they were looking at probability the wrong way (completely upside down). A strategy that appeared to have worked in the past, but in fact it never did. As things stand right now, you can't tour on an electric bike in the same way as you can with a conventional one. You would have to take a lot of time out to rest while your bike was being charged, and your route would be dictated by the availability of charging stations. This was one of the arguments for excluding bikes from the 2030 ban.

Now, individually, MAG members might think that petrol engined motorcycles will slip through an ever-tightening regulatory net, if MAG becomes an electric bike organisation. But, in time, they'll find that MAG simply sold out on them.

[doggone]

The 2030 ban is ludicrously optimistic, the question is whether they will backtrack from it before pretty much destroying civilisation as we know it.
It really is that dangerous because the effect of taking away affordable personal mobility will be widespread unemployment and social unrest.

[stinkwheel]

Technology is going to overtake electric cars and go diectly to Hydrogen. Either as a fuel cell or as a direct injection ICE.

If you get a new gas central heating boiler as part of a government grant, it HAS to be hydrogen convertible. What does that tell us? Presumably that the intent is to convert the mains gas network fro natural gas to hydrogen... That's the logistics problem taken care of, they can set up a filling station anywhere there's a gas main.

For what it's worth, my enfields can be readily converted to run on 100% alcohol but I'd probably have to dig out my enormous touring tank because they don't do many mpg.

In fact, if they had approaching 100% ethanol readily available at the pumps, I might be tempted to do so because I'd be able to ditch the compression plates from my 612 motor and run it at 13:1. There might be a burgeoning trade in converting older bikes to ethanol safe and tuning the fuck out of them. I mean, if they're going to supply 113 octane fuel at the pump, you may as well take advantage of it...

*Checks google* Woah. Hydrogen has an octane rating of >130 RON! I think powersquirt need to be getting their A-game out if that's going to become readily available.
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“Rule one: Always stick around for one more drink. That's when things happen. That's when you find out everything you want to know.”
I did the 2010 Round Britain Rally on my 350 Bullet. 89 landmarks, 3 months, 9,500 miles.

[Kawasaki Jimbo]

I don’t rate battery technology’s chances, nor hydrogen. Ultimately I think the extraordinarily well developed ICE and it’s fuel distribution infrastructure will win out, only instead of fossil fuels it will be bio-fuels made from the materials we currently call waste. Chemistry still has a lot of scope there. In contrast battery chemistry has had over 100 years.

[Easy-X]

[Easy-X]

[GettinBetter]

[Kawasaki Jimbo]

[GettinBetter]

[Kawasaki Jimbo]

Deep sea mining to help make electric vehicles.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/science-environment-56678976

I also enjoy the irony of Extreme-e Racing; transporting race teams to some of the most remote and fragile corners of the planet to supposedly highlight the challenges faced by different eco-systems.

[Fat Angry Scotsman]

[Easy-X]

[stinkwheel]

My mate was honking about with us on his 1170 katana the other day. Now tax and MOT exempt.

In three years, 1st gen GPZ900Rs (first out of the box 150mph bike) will be tax and MOT exempt historic vehicles.
____________________
“Rule one: Always stick around for one more drink. That's when things happen. That's when you find out everything you want to know.”
I did the 2010 Round Britain Rally on my 350 Bullet. 89 landmarks, 3 months, 9,500 miles.

[Fat Angry Scotsman]