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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 00:10 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Did somebody say something about... Reply with quote

Shifty

Russia and Ukraine?

Shhh! Shifty

Third World War imminent? Or damp squib?
Bit of an embarrassment for the EU innit? Especially Germany. Shhh! Shifty
Spells the end for NATO?
Whaddya think?
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Bhud
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PostPosted: 00:25 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

I may have said something. But I don't have any information.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 00:39 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bhud wrote:
I may have said something. But I don't have any information.


I know I'm taking a risk here, but...

chickenstrip wrote:
Whaddya think?


Smile
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Bhud
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PostPosted: 00:55 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Too depressing to think about, sorry. Laughing
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 01:09 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Putin is smarter than Biden. Big shook!
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colin1
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PostPosted: 02:04 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

In case it wasnt bad enough, Chernobyl isnt far from the border. In theory neither side would intend to blow it up, but let's not forget that Putin gave separatists anti-aircraft missiles and they accidentally shot down an airline, so shit happens.

Mostly I think Putin is bluffing, but he might think that Ukraine would fold quickly if he really did go in.

I've got a bit of sympathy for Putin's position. America spent years trying to keep the commies out of South America, you can expect him to like his direct neighbour wanting to join Nato. That's no buffer at all.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 02:31 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm impressed with how tactfully the media have avoided the awkward problem of the cause of this war. Sure, Putin is a nasty SOB and is invading his neighbour, but what made him push now? Crickets...

So why? A few potential causes:
1. The US leader looks weak. Putin feels strong and feels like he can contend for the Alpha male position
2. The West is scared of taking casulties
3. The US is more interested in China
4. A subsection of society is teaching people to hate our country which makes us look weak and pathetic in Russian cultures and...
5. Makes us look appear like a cancer to Russian proud patriotic culture
6. We cut defence spending year on year
7. What we do spend on defence is often very badly spent. Siginificant amounts of it has little real use in an actual war, and huge amounts of useful kit is scrapped or sold off for nothing. The MoD are also woefully unprepared for real wars.

On the plus side ordinary Brits have little to fear in a real war. Movies often depict mass bombings etc but in reality the Russians would focus their forces against decapitation of the ruling classes in much the same way as we do to them. FTSE CEOs, the cabinet office, the BBC and Sky, a few think tanks, various charities, Cressida Dick, and that kind of thing. I suspect it would mostly be KGB and spec ops with some cruise missiles against big organisations such as the BBC. That said, the Russians don't have the money or equipment for a real war with NATO, they're dirt poor, extremely corrupt and their military would be spread laughably thin so they would have to go asymmetric.

As for Alpha male position, you can be absolutely sure that this isn't an isolated conflict. You can bet this has been planned with President Xi, and they will force the US to fight on two fronts so Russia gets Ukraine and China gets Taiwan, and hence China takes over dominance of the Indo-Pacific.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 02:49 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

colin1 wrote:
In case it wasnt bad enough, Chernobyl isnt far from the border. In theory neither side would intend to blow it up, but let's not forget that Putin gave separatists anti-aircraft missiles and they accidentally shot down an airline, so shit happens.

Mostly I think Putin is bluffing, but he might think that Ukraine would fold quickly if he really did go in.

I've got a bit of sympathy for Putin's position. America spent years trying to keep the commies out of South America, you can expect him to like his direct neighbour wanting to join Nato. That's no buffer at all.


That what he says. More likely he lent them the missile system and the crew and the Russians downed the plane (by accident) themselves.

Putin is absolutely going to go in at least to Kharkiv (Eastern upper province). The unknown is whether he opens a second front from Belarus and pushes to Kyiv or just opens the front as a distraction. It's only 50 miles to Kyiv so its more a question of international pressure than military.

As for the war Russia dominates in the air but they might not want to use too much air power so near to NATO, and this is especially true if NATO starts flying around over Ukraine. On the ground the two sides are fairly evenly matched in terms of troop numbers but the Russians are better trained. Russia has better armour but the Ukranians have enough armour and anti-tank missiles of their own to inflict a thousand or two armour kills on Russian tanks, IFV and APC. Even if they decapitate Kyiv the country is mobilised so there is no easy win here for them.

Personally I would like to see the Ukranians go on the offensive. Send spec ops to Russia and smash some stuff up. Bridges, power plants, oil and gas pipelines, railways, even oligarchs themselves. They've developed cruise missiles and anti-shipping missiles too, so send latter at few at more vulnerable Russian ships, and the former at sensitive Russian targets. It's one thing for the Russians to watch the war on TV, quite another when it's coming to them.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 09:16 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

One thing is for sure judging by the fact that every Tory person interviewed brings it up to divert attention from Johnson's inability to tell the truth, the fat blonde scarecrow must be loving it in a similar manner to Thatcher during the Falklands. HMS Sheffield et al saved her political bacon. I wonder if Putin will do the same for Boris?
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doggone
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PostPosted: 09:53 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Games are being played, if they wanted to invade they could have just driven in.
But no lets pretend to move troops to the border months beforehand to give the west jitters and wait until the US decides to spend a fortune deploying troops and equipment before doing anything. Laughing
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 11:53 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

doggone wrote:
Games are being played, if they wanted to invade they could have just driven in.
But no lets pretend to move troops to the border months beforehand to give the west jitters and wait until the US decides to spend a fortune deploying troops and equipment before doing anything. Laughing


No war for at least 2 or 3 weeks because of the Chinese Winter Olympics
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Ste
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PostPosted: 12:21 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Re: Did somebody say something about... Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
Whaddya think?

Gas prices will go up.
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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PostPosted: 12:38 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have no idea why anyone thinks a war between the USA and Russia or NATO vs CSTO would be anything other than a proxy war where NATO props up the Ukrainian Government with equipment, funds, etc and CSTO props up separatists. If anyone things either will go to a ground war against each other then they need to go out and touch grass.

A true war between NATO and CSTO would turn from conventional to nuclear extremely quickly. Which is the reason why it will never happen. Nobody wants to end the world when they can make money and live instead.
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The Shaggy D.A.
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PostPosted: 14:16 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Re: Did somebody say something about... Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
Whaddya think?


It's yet another thing on this planet I have no control over, so it's in the "worry about some other time" pile. My BP is better for it.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 14:40 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im-a-Ridah wrote:


So why? A few potential causes:
1. The US leader looks weak. Putin feels strong and feels like he can contend for the Alpha male position
2. The West is scared of taking casulties

3. The US is more interested in China
4. A subsection of society is teaching people to hate our country which makes us look weak and pathetic in Russian cultures and...
5. Makes us look appear like a cancer to Russian proud patriotic culture

6. We cut defence spending year on year
7. What we do spend on defence is often very badly spent. Siginificant amounts of it has little real use in an actual war, and huge amounts of useful kit is scrapped or sold off for nothing. The MoD are also woefully unprepared for real wars.

.


The highlighted ones are increadibly important.

Biden is weak, FFS the Taliban kicked him out og Afghanistan whatever spin you put on it.

Russian culture is so centered on the 'mother Russia' they find it difficult to understand our self demeaning attitude just as we (well some of us) find it difficult to understand their xenophobia about foreigners and espectially foreigners who are of different cultures. Even my Croatian friends from my time are sea are as anti foreign immigration as the rightest of right politician.

If Russia go in we will make noises, invoke sanctions and then privatly phone Putin to congratulate him oh his Napoleonic like skills and can we have some gas now, pretty please. Praying
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 14:52 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:


Biden is weak, FFS the Taliban kicked him out og Afghanistan whatever spin you put on it.


Biden was not kicked out of Afghanistan by the Taliban, he was was kicked out by the treaty that Trump signed when he was POTUS.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 15:31 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Polarbear wrote:


Biden is weak, FFS the Taliban kicked him out og Afghanistan whatever spin you put on it.


Biden was not kicked out of Afghanistan by the Taliban, he was was kicked out by the treaty that Trump signed when he was POTUS.


He could have changed it. He could have ignored it but he didn't want to. The yanks didn't exactly ask for the Talibans permission when they went in and kicked them out first time and the Taliban weren't adheering to any treaty agreements when they took over great swathes of the country before any deadline date was reached.

Trumps previous policies are a convenient excuse to run away (said in a Monty python and the Holy Grail voice).
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 15:39 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't know if you are aware, going back on a treaty is a bit frowned on by the international community and results in a lack of trust in you.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 16:44 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I understand we use about 5% Sovblok gas whereas other European countries are up as high as 25%.

For one thing the scramble to find other gas suppliers in those countries is going to get crazy and possibly nasty.

From a UK point of view, if prices continue the way they are, I could see some North sea installations that were wound up as not economically viable being de-mothballed.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 20:37 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can see this reinforcing the EU Trading Bloc’s ( Laughing ) desire to have an army. Thankfully I think they might be too useless to arrange one.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 21:23 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Don't know if you are aware, going back on a treaty is a bit frowned on by the international community and results in a lack of trust in you.


Not when it's already been broken by the other side.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 21:35 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Don't know if you are aware, going back on a treaty is a bit frowned on by the international community and results in a lack of trust in you.


Not when it's already been broken by the other side.


How was it broken? The Yanks had al:ready broken it by 6 months or so.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 23:01 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the plus side we might get to see some SU-34's in action Cool

https://www.military-today.com/aircraft/su34_fullback.jpg

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
Polarbear wrote:


Biden is weak, FFS the Taliban kicked him out og Afghanistan whatever spin you put on it.


Biden was not kicked out of Afghanistan by the Taliban, he was was kicked out by the treaty that Trump signed when he was POTUS.


It's not relevant. What is relevant is the perception. You might think Biden looks tough but most people, even vast numbers of people who voted for him think he is too stupid to tie his shoe laces together let alone fight Russia or the Taliban. It's a running joke now that the only decision Biden makes is what flavour of ice cream.

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
I can see this reinforcing the EU Trading Bloc’s ( Laughing ) desire to have an army. Thankfully I think they might be too useless to arrange one.


And nobody will want to pay in, and everyone will want their country to get the jobs Laughing

Fighter jet production jobs for my country, artillery shell filling jobs for your country Laughing
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 23:52 - 27 Jan 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im-a-Ridah wrote:
On the plus side we might get to see some SU-34's in action Cool

https://www.military-today.com/aircraft/su34_fullback.jpg


Reckon they'd dare risk one in actual combat?

I wonder how many airworthy ones they actually have. I also wonder how many pilots they have who are skilled enough to fly one.
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