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Is Now A Good Time To Buy Rubles?

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GettinBetter
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PostPosted: 11:20 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Rubles? Reply with quote

If the price is dropping through the floor you can bet somewhere the city boys are hoarding a decent amount to make a killing in 5 /10 yrs
You know how short some peoples memories are, it'll all be forgotten in less than a decade (more like a two years), the value will have shot up long before that.

Just a thought for the long term investor ....
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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PostPosted: 11:30 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Re: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Rubles? Reply with quote

GettinBetter wrote:
If the price is dropping through the floor you can bet somewhere the city boys are hoarding a decent amount to make a killing in 5 /10 yrs
You know how short some peoples memories are, it'll all be forgotten in less than a decade (more like a two years), the value will have shot up long before that.

Just a thought for the long term investor ....


Might punt a couple grand on it, think its' still got more to drop though.
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A100man
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PostPosted: 12:07 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

.. I'll leave currency speculation to the experts,,

BTW Do you think they'll become known as 'Barneys' ?
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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PostPosted: 12:52 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

A100man wrote:
.. I'll leave currency speculation to the experts,,

BTW Do you think they'll become known as 'Barneys' ?


Laughing I am no expert, just a gambler! I am sitting on a couple hundred quids worth of meme and shitcoins just because I thought it was funny and worth a small punt at the time. It almost never pays off with crypto though it's literally just a pure punt.

Shares and FOREX though I am happier to put more money on the line as at least there is something tangible there.

On another forum I am on a guy there used to plough all his spare money into silver and I used to call him a mug because he was losing 20% of his money every purchase because there's VAT on silver and the price will never go up more than 20% over the mid-term, this was back in 2014 when silver prices had been going down for years. Told him to get gold instead as it always goes up but he wanted silver because he couldn't afford an ounce of gold at a time but could afford a kilo of silver at a time.

My foot is in my mouth now. I was fucking humbled. He bought hundreds of kilos of silver through 2014 to 2020. He even started buying people second hand silver bars at spot price. He sold off his entire stockpile when prices were high in 2020/21 because of COVID and shortages worldwide and he made a fucking killing.

I consistently put money into my share portfolio with the logic generally being against normal speculation. Most people want to invest in shares to get an income through dividends. Whereas when I invest I am looking at the long-term future of the company because I want to buy low then sell high and trade off income for capital gains.
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MarJay
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PostPosted: 13:07 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is still further for the Ruble to fall I reckon. I think with Putin's mental state, any speculation as to what can happen is literally just that. He could do a Ceaucescu and get offed by his own people, or he could bash Ukraine, get supported by China and have even stronger sanctions drawn against him. Who bloody knows? Dr Who, or Doc Brown maybe?
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 14:14 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:

On another forum I am on a guy there used to plough all his spare money into silver and I used to call him a mug because he was losing 20% of his money every purchase because there's VAT on silver and the price will never go up more than 20% over the mid-term, this was back in 2014 when silver prices had been going down for years. Told him to get gold instead as it always goes up but he wanted silver because he couldn't afford an ounce of gold at a time but could afford a kilo of silver at a time.

My foot is in my mouth now. I was fucking humbled. He bought hundreds of kilos of silver through 2014 to 2020. He even started buying people second hand silver bars at spot price. He sold off his entire stockpile when prices were high in 2020/21 because of COVID and shortages worldwide and he made a fucking killing.


Eh, not that amazing. Buying for an average of 500usd/kg and selling for 800usd/kg ish? I mean it is ok but a bit lucky and you can tell it is luck as he's dumped it all.

Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:

I consistently put money into my share portfolio with the logic generally being against normal speculation. Most people want to invest in shares to get an income through dividends. Whereas when I invest I am looking at the long-term future of the company because I want to buy low then sell high and trade off income for capital gains.


Do people really invest for dividends still? Tax allowances make capital gains a much nicer option for the vast majority of people.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 14:16 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

They could be (literally) adding extra zeros to the end of ruble notes before this is over.

A lot of younger people won't have seen freefall inflation like that. I remember going on holiday to the former Yugoslavia back in the 80's and you had to change your dinars on the day because the next day, they could be worth half as much. As I recall, there was a 1000-fold drop in value between two summer holidays (one year you were getting about 300 to the pound, the following year it was nearer 30,000).

Communist dictatorships can deal with it to an extent by dictating the price of internal market goods but it makes imports unobtainable.

Buying Rubles just now would be like taking out a mortgage on a house that's on fire.
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tatters
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PostPosted: 15:47 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last time l was traveling in Russia was back in 2009 and lot of ATMs had a option to withdraw cash in USD. They never really had a great lot of trust in the ruble since the economic shit show of the 90s and always preferred USD or Euros cash.
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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PostPosted: 16:12 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Artist wrote:
Eh, not that amazing. Buying for an average of 500usd/kg and selling for 800usd/kg ish? I mean it is ok but a bit lucky and you can tell it is luck as he's dumped it all.

Do people really invest for dividends still? Tax allowances make capital gains a much nicer option for the vast majority of people.


Making an average profit of >37.50%? I think any investment banker in the world would fucking chop your hands off for that kind of return when most standard investments only return single to very low double digits.

Every single person I know who invests in shares does it for dividends. I would probably do it too if I had the money to invest at the level they do. That being said, they are putting their money into properties instead of shares now (again, something I can't do as I am just not on the same level).

What tax allowances are you talking about with capital gains? They reduced allowances last time I checked.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 16:59 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobody does it for the dividend.

It's in the assumption that they will go up in value. The dividend is just a nice bonus. You have to have a fuck load of shares to get a dividend of any value at the typical 3% per share.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 17:16 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

To clarify slightly...

Ltd company shares are about the dividend because they aren't traded in the open market. You can only get Ltd shares by invitation.

PLC shares are about the value of the shares. The dividend can be tiny.
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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PostPosted: 17:26 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
To clarify slightly...

Ltd company shares are about the dividend because they aren't traded in the open market. You can only get Ltd shares by invitation.


Regarding the public sale of shares in Ltd companies: it happens. People sell their stakes in ltd companies all the time. There's also nothing stopping you from approaching the board of a Ltd company and offering to buy-in or offer a debt to equity swap if you have the capital, it's not strictly by invite.
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The Artist
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PostPosted: 17:40 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:
Making an average profit of >37.50%? I think any investment banker in the world would fucking chop your hands off for that kind of return when most standard investments only return single to very low double digits.

Well 0% pretty much for 5 years and then 37.5% in 1 year. High risk and most people want a little bit more stability than that.


Fat Angry Scotsman wrote:

Every single person I know who invests in shares does it for dividends. I would probably do it too if I had the money to invest at the level they do. That being said, they are putting their money into properties instead of shares now (again, something I can't do as I am just not on the same level).

What tax allowances are you talking about with capital gains? They reduced allowances last time I checked.


Dividend tax free allowance is £2k/year and then you get destroyed with a 30 something % rate after that, assuming you are a higher rate income tax payer.

Capital gains is £12.3k/yr tax free then 20%.
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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PostPosted: 18:04 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Artist wrote:
Dividend tax free allowance is £2k/year and then you get destroyed with a 30 something % rate after that, assuming you are a higher rate income tax payer.

Capital gains is £12.3k/yr tax free then 20%.


Makes sense. I get destroyed on income taxes thanks for dividends.

Projecting my taxes for the next year using this calculator:

https://www.contractorcalculator.co.uk/maintemplate.aspx?PageKey=dividend_tax_calculator

Tax on the dividend itself is £7,475.00 which is not 100% accurate as I had to use the default tax code on the site (1257L) as it would not accept my actual tax code (S1048L).

My taxes for the next year probably going to be:

Income tax (salary and bonus) = £24,330.48,
Income tax (dividend) = £7,475.00,
National insurance = £5,638.84.

Total deductions = £37,444.32.

Brutal. You can see why income taxes eventually become self-defeating as it pushes people to find more tax efficient ways to pay themselves.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 18:18 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

No the don't. People like you need to stop being so greedy.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 18:20 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

BTW your tax code implies you either have a pension, paying back a student loan or you have an agreement to pay unpaid tax.
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Fat Angry Scotsman
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PostPosted: 18:59 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
BTW your tax code implies you either have a pension, paying back a student loan or you have an agreement to pay unpaid tax.


Student loan was repaid many years ago, I don't have a pension that I am drawing from and as far as I am aware I don't have an agreement to pay unpaid tax.

From checking the HMRC tax code page:

https://www.gov.uk/tax-codes/what-your-tax-code-means

Page on what the numbers in the code mean:

https://www.gov.uk/employee-tax-codes/numbers#:~:text=The%20numbers%20in%20an%20employee's,%C2%A312%2C570%20before%20being%20taxed.

S1048L

S = your income or pension is taxed using the rates in Scotland,
1048 = your tax-free income in the year is £10,480.00,
L = you're entitled to the standard tax-free allowance.

All works out when I use the calculator at ListenToTaxman:

https://listentotaxman.com/?year=2021&taxregion=scotland&age=0&taxcode=S1048L&pension=5%%&time=1&ingr=88000

The figure put out is slightly skewed in that it assumes I am paid the bonus regularly over the year when it's actually paid in a lump sum.

It also doesn't match what goes into my bank account at the end of the month, I guess that is because it doesn't take into account taxable benefits - life insurance, private medical insurance, etc.

EDIT: You're right, I logged into the Government Gateway and went to the "how we worked out your tax code" and I underpaid tax in the previous year by £420.00. The other deductions from my personal allowance are for benefits I mentioned earlier (medical cover, etc).
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Last edited by Fat Angry Scotsman on 19:38 - 02 Mar 2022; edited 1 time in total
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 19:58 - 02 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

*Breathes on fingernails before polishing them on my t shirt*
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steve the grease
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PostPosted: 20:12 - 04 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

Everytime I consider currency speculation , I dig into my ' treasures' and look at the 500,000,000 Reichmark note that my old man brought back after the last lot, as a reminder of how badly wrong it can go.
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MarJay
But it's British!



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PostPosted: 20:38 - 04 Mar 2022    Post subject: Reply with quote

I heard a joke today. What's the difference between a Ruble and a dollar.




A dollar.
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