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mentalboy |
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mentalboy World Chat Champion
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Islander |
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Islander World Chat Champion
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Posted: 09:43 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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chickenstrip wrote: |
The problem is, everyone talks all the time about worst case scenarios as if there are no other degrees, and using words like "collapse" as if these are things that will happen overnight. Why would the northern permafrost suddenly thaw?
I contend that no one knows what would actually happen if we just carried on as we are now, just as nobody knows how much effect we'll have if we try to alter things deliberately.
It's like the Covid modelling - all these catastrophic predictions that never came to pass, and we'd have had little chance of doing anything about it if they had without causing fairly catastrophic problems ourselves (as some would say we did).
Alarmism - I can't get on board with it, especially when I see such hypocrisy from some of the loudest voices, and when it crops up with everything from racism to the price of eggs, literally!
And what are we prepared to sacrifice if we believe how bad things "will" be? What are you sacrificing now? What's the point of saving a life if we destroy another? The planet isn't in any danger. We're not about to spark off a Venus-style runaway greenhouse effect (assuming that's what actually happened on Venus).
Oh, and I read recently about some promising coral reef recovery signs - think it might even have been the Great Barrier Reef. |
Once a tipping point is reached, and the clue is in the name, you move from an overall negative feedback cycle to a positive one. Once that happens things start to move a lot more quickly. There are already signs of the northern permafrost melting - blowouts if you will. There are already signs of the collapse of both ice sheets including significant erosion beneath the sheets. That means liquid water beneath them and that's a fine lubricant for ice movement.
The modelling we have is based on the proxy data we have over vast history. There have been cycles of heating and cooling before and we know what happened and roughly how long it took. Including catastrophic events caused by melting. The planet's heating and cooling events are governed by three cycles called Milankovitch cycles. One is caused by the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit and has a periodicity of around 100,000 years, another is caused by the obliquity of the Earth's poles with respect to it's orbital plane and has a periodicity of around 41,000 years. The last is caused by the precession of the polar obliquity (think of a spinning top that's at an angle and the way the whole structure rotates around a vertical line) and that one has a periodicity of around 26,000 years. These are predictable events controlled by orbital mechanics and the changes they induce can be measure and predicted with a high degree of certainty. With climate change what we have is a very significant change in the overall rate of change of this to the point where the change itself causes acceleration of the rate of change. It's stepped well outside of normal parameters into dangerous ones.
This has been caused by human interference with the natural carbon cycle taking deep deposits of organic materials that have been buried in the rocks themselves and dumping them rapidly into the atmosphere. A lot of the deposits come from a time when the planet was significantly warmer and had a much higher atmospheric partial pressure of oxygen (35% rather than the 21% today). Releasing CO2 from those times into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels seemed like a good idea and certainly drove significant societal change but we understand the science a lot better these days - it turns out to have been a bad thing to do. But hey, the stockholders are making piles of money so who cares?
Bad for the planet, well yes it is. It's very bad. However, if things go disastrously wrong the planet will recover over millions of years. Lots of life will become extinct and new life will no doubt arise. That's part of the planet's natural cycle of existence. The thing you have to ask yourself is what gives a particularly antisocial, selfish and arrogant branch of the great apes the right to decide that on behalf of the species of the world?
As for carrying on because we don't know what will happen, I don't know what would happen if you tried to reach an overhead power line with a metal pole and you were wearing thick rubber soled boots - care to just carry on and see? |
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Islander |
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Islander World Chat Champion
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Posted: 09:50 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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chickenstrip |
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chickenstrip Super Spammer
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Posted: 11:49 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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Islander wrote: |
Once a tipping point is reached, etc... |
I am aware of the theory. Well, you better have a better understanding of people and their motivations if you want to carry them with you. All you will do is create violent uprisings, because if things are as bad as you say, you will have to have such drastic policies to reverse it that you will kill millions along the way anyway. Good luck. ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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Islander |
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Islander World Chat Champion
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chickenstrip |
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chickenstrip Super Spammer
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Posted: 14:55 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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When has climate change theory been repeatedly tested?
chickenstrip wrote: |
you better have a better understanding of people and their motivations if you want to carry them with you. All you will do is create violent uprisings, because if things are as bad as you say, you will have to have such drastic policies to reverse it that you will kill millions along the way anyway. Good luck. |
____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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Freddyfruitba... |
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Freddyfruitba... World Chat Champion
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Islander |
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Islander World Chat Champion
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Posted: 15:53 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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chickenstrip wrote: |
When has climate change theory been repeatedly tested?
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Well atmospheric content goes back 800,000 years by ice core analysis. Not only can atmospheric CO2 be ascertained but there's even a temperature proxy in oxygen isotopes. Then of course there's the use of rock strata as a climate proxy - that record goes back a lot further yet.
Of course it's been tested repeatedly against available data. |
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Polarbear |
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chickenstrip |
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chickenstrip Super Spammer
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Posted: 17:10 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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Islander wrote: | chickenstrip wrote: |
When has climate change theory been repeatedly tested?
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Well atmospheric content goes back 800,000 years by ice core analysis. Not only can atmospheric CO2 be ascertained but there's even a temperature proxy in oxygen isotopes. Then of course there's the use of rock strata as a climate proxy - that record goes back a lot further yet. |
That's not testing. Your quote said scientific theory is something repeatedly tested. Looking at events and the geological record is not testing.
I propose that climate change "theory" is no such thing. It is a hypothesis.
Quote: | Of course it's been tested repeatedly against available data. |
How and when?
Do you agree that if we were to seriously tackle the "problem", policies would have to be pretty drastic, or are things really not as bad as you claim?
What do you propose for the nations that are really polluting, even ramping it up; China, India etc, how will you convince them to change, bearing in mind their people too will suffer severely if the policies are to be effective?
If you really believe things are as bad as you claim, why don't you give up your cyber security job and commit yourself to the problem? Isn't it far more important, indeed the most important thing possible? Show me how serious you think it is, by your actions. Some of these climate change activists may be nuts, but at least they act on what they believe. ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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Nobby the Bastard |
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Nobby the Bastard Harley Gaydar
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Freddyfruitba... |
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Freddyfruitba... World Chat Champion
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Easy-X |
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Posted: 17:54 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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Looking at the energy consumption in most Western countries - i.e. not the Americas - I think we're going in the right direction. People just get pissed off with constantly being berated by the eco-twats for not doing enough. Breaking news: it'll never be enough until we're all dead
China and America on the other hand: nuke these two countries off the map and a) the world pollution emissions would fall dramatically and b) the nuclear winter would probably balance global warming Seriously though, the coal consumption of China is staggering and no one sees it dropping any time soon.
Why should we all live like paupers when it'll have almost no impact? ____________________ Husqvarna Vitpilen 401, Yamaha XSR700, Honda Rebel, Yamaha DT175, Suzuki SV650 (loan) Fazer 600, Keeway Superlight 125, 50cc turd scooter |
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Islander |
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Islander World Chat Champion
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Posted: 19:24 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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chickenstrip wrote: |
That's not testing. Your quote said scientific theory is something repeatedly tested. Looking at events and the geological record is not testing.
I propose that climate change "theory" is no such thing. It is a hypothesis.
Quote: | Of course it's been tested repeatedly against available data. |
How and when?
Do you agree that if we were to seriously tackle the "problem", policies would have to be pretty drastic, or are things really not as bad as you claim?
What do you propose for the nations that are really polluting, even ramping it up; China, India etc, how will you convince them to change, bearing in mind their people too will suffer severely if the policies are to be effective?
If you really believe things are as bad as you claim, why don't you give up your cyber security job and commit yourself to the problem? Isn't it far more important, indeed the most important thing possible? Show me how serious you think it is, by your actions. Some of these climate change activists may be nuts, but at least they act on what they believe. |
Erm that IS testing. Science is continually striving for more and more data to improve the accuracy of historic climate conditions (it's already very accurate by the way) in order to improve the reference baseline.
If you mean current climate conditions, well that's happening all the time with atmospheric CO2 monitored at points all over the planet.
Three of these run by NOAA are at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, Barrow in Alaska and Cape Grim in Tasmania. There are lots of others providing continuous data on atmospheric CO2.
Yes we have to make drastic changes and that's what the majority of the world signed up for. Suffering is relative - it'll be a first world problem mostly.
My job isn't cyber security by the way. It's Information Security - it's a much broader discipline. |
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Nobby the Bastard |
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Nobby the Bastard Harley Gaydar
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Ribenapigeon |
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chickenstrip |
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chickenstrip Super Spammer
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Posted: 20:47 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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Polarbear wrote: | Try doing that sort of thing when you have an election in a few years. |
Don't worry, democracy is on the way out, to be replaced by the new ideologies. ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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Kawasaki Jimbo |
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Kawasaki Jimbo World Chat Champion
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chickenstrip |
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chickenstrip Super Spammer
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Posted: 21:33 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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Islander wrote: |
Oddly enough, China is actively reducing its dependence on coal. It's not a fast process but they recognise the need and are acting. |
You're rather fond of the CCP aren't you?
How is building over 100 coal-fired power stations in the last 2 years helping, do tell? ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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chickenstrip |
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chickenstrip Super Spammer
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Posted: 21:36 - 04 Oct 2022 Post subject: |
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Kawasaki Jimbo wrote: | chickenstrip wrote: |
Don't worry, democracy is on the way out, to be replaced by the new ideologies. |
True. It no longer matters who wins a democratic election, they’ll still be too afraid of offending a minority to actually enact any policies. Stalemate. Shambles. |
The minority ideologies won't be the leading ones. This is where the useful idiots will largely be found. The subject of this thread, climate change - that's going to be the one. ____________________ Chickenystripgeezer's Biking Life (Latest update 19/10/18) Belgium, France, Italy, Austria tour 2016 Picos de Europa, Pyrenees and French Alps tour 2017 Scotland Trip 1, now with BONUS FEATURE edit, 5/10/19, on page 2 Scotland Trip 2 Luxembourg, Black Forest, Switzerland, Vosges Trip 2017
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 1 year, 231 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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