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| zx636 |
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 zx636 Scooby Slapper
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| bazza |
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 bazza World Chat Champion
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| m99dws |
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 m99dws World Chat Champion

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| Rookie |
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 Rookie World Chat Champion

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| John C |
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 John C World Chat Champion
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| map |
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 map Mr Calendar

Joined: 14 Jun 2004 Karma :     
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 Posted: 16:29 - 07 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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| John C |
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 John C World Chat Champion
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| Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

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| John C |
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 John C World Chat Champion
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| instigator |
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 instigator Super Spammer

Joined: 19 Oct 2004 Karma :   
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 Posted: 18:23 - 07 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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Apart from using the bike for fun or even for getting to work, the price of fuel doesn't really effect me as I get travelling expenses, for a 70 mile commute, if I've done under 4000 miles in total, I get £28 a day. Once it steps over 4000, it's down to roughly £15.
I do wonder how this is going to hit companies who issue out fuel cards.... As I'm looking forward to mine. |
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| Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :     
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| Dan 4RR |
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 Dan 4RR World Chat Champion

Joined: 02 Dec 2004 Karma :     
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 Posted: 18:57 - 07 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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| kal9001 |
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 kal9001 Trackday Trickster
Joined: 15 Aug 2005 Karma :  
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 Posted: 00:45 - 08 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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Right i dont know if this point has been made beofre but it gives meannother chance to pointout this VERY serious situation
a previous poster said that no new refineries have been built for a very long time, Oil companies are mergeing like crazy. what does that tell you about the market...what do they know we dont...
Oil will not last forever "we are a long way from running out of oil" true it will probably be annother60 years before we totaly run out of oil, but are anyof you aware of "peak oil"
its a very simple concept, basicley, when the planets total oil supply reaches 50% (roughley) then globa oil production will "peak"
simple mental diagram for you.
your hand is a oil well, and a huge tray of maggots infront of you is the oil supply, when you start ou can chuck them out in great big handfulls, but once there are few left you have to start picking them out...oil is the same, once we reach that level oil extraction will slow.if that slows refineries will slow then we are all fucked.
now there will also be some people who think that rasing prices wont mean much for them.
we have prices slowley rising now, the effect of this is people are slowley getting poorer, now when peopl get poorer they tent to spend less in shops and so on, but as petrol is neccecery then we cant squander that,so we sacrifice other things, those companies then loose money. so it has to reduce its size, or lay off staff hold that thaught
DHL a ditrubution company is faced with increcing prices of its deasil, so it has to rase its prices, OR lay off staff. now if it does the former then comapny A as mention erlier will have topay more for its deliveries...wich makes its low sales even more of a problem...when it goesoutof buisness as theres no money,it loosesall the staff who cant buy anymore stuff thus spread the problem to more places, AND DHL who lost a contract, thus money wich makes its problem even worse
wich in turn slowley eats away at our economy, untill we are all fucked...
and the worst thing is, lostof high power people KNOW this will happen, BUT in our capitalist world noone will do anythingwhile there is still money to be made! so when the problem gest that bad that we realise we need to do something then we will all be too poor toafford alternative energy.
also consider by this point DHL and other companies will be ether out of buisness or so crippeld they are unable to deploy and provide the new technology.
this is a VERY big problem, and noone seems to be bothers pureley cos there are currentley no symptoms, other then the obvious cause - high oil prices...
and annother point, we know what the Americans are like, look at iraq, look at the thing going off ATM...what theirculture does when its desperate...so when things get realy rough and america is faced with not being able to fuel their 3 SUV's per person then who do you think will end up worse off when they comelookingfor more oil...us or them...a US cenetor of some kind a few yeasr ago allready admited that planshad been drawn up for the US to"secure resources by force" to ensure that the american lifestyle can be upheld... ____________________ Anyone stupid enough to think we will drag a load of wooden horses full of soldiers into our city is certanley stupid enough to drag all of ours into theirs! |
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| Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :     
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 Posted: 01:00 - 08 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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Hi
Oil reserves are quoted in proven resources at current consumption. We have about 40~50 years at that level. However as the price rises then previously uneconomic reserves become feasable, so the time frame increases although increased oil use has the opposite effect. Also improved extraction techniques mean that more oil can be got from sources that would otherwise have been abandoned.
There are other sources. For example, as oil prices rise shale oil should become economically viable.
All the best
Keith ____________________ Traxpics, track day and racing photographs - Bimota Forum - Bike performance / thrust graphs for choosing gearing |
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| kal9001 |
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 kal9001 Trackday Trickster
Joined: 15 Aug 2005 Karma :  
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 Posted: 20:30 - 08 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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Yes but your takeing the very narrow minded aproch to it...what happens in 50 years when they DO run out...then we will have the same problem we have today, its all about sustainability!
at the moment Demand is rising, production is capped, and pretty soon the extraction will start to slow. this is known as "Peak oil" it is a proven cycle its happend in the US and in russia, and somethinf very simaler has happend with North sea gas...
the oil doesnt need to acctualy run out for the extraction of it to slow dramaticaly...so the 40-50 years of avalable supply we are currentley running it at 100%...that could be 90% of todays figure if oil peaks...then the year after 90% of that...then 90% of that...ect
slowley, or probably quite quickley supply will fall short of demand...then prices will hit the roof.
we can see this allready the prices will follow a tangent...so the prices will raise slowley at 1st...look in the past fiew years how quickley they have risen...not that much realy its only been the past 2-3 years its become a real issue...well think in 2-3 years time when we have £3 per litre or maybe more...
the Peak oil theory wich has been proven in practice...oil supply follows a "bell curve" meaning in any given oil providing area...the supply will slowley build up, then increce in speed untill the supply hitts 100% meaning even tho there is pleany of oil left its not possible to extract it any fater. that it known as peak...it can sit at that for a little while. then a little past 50% of the total avalable the supply begins to drop off...and it slowley starts to cost more and more to maintain that supply...and once supply hits demand then the shit hits the fan...
now in the US and russia when this happend both following that exact pattern, the oil companies just when else where, i.e. saudi arabia and iraq...once they peak then we will have to go somewhere else ect...
now the pint made is that once they are all the same level the old ones will become viable again...yes they may become a cheaper option, but thats all relative..the prices will still be high...and they will just keep getting higher...
so despite not acctualy running outof oil the prices will raise to such an extent as you wouldnt beabel to afford it...and when noone buys it the refineries go bust, and the oilcompanies go bust then if we get that far, supply will be nill....while demand will have also dropped off as the slowley rising prices will have milked everyone dry so they end up giveing up cars...but by then the economies of the developed world will be in sich a mess that we wont need them... ____________________ Anyone stupid enough to think we will drag a load of wooden horses full of soldiers into our city is certanley stupid enough to drag all of ours into theirs! |
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| Kickstart |
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 Kickstart The Oracle

Joined: 04 Feb 2002 Karma :     
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 Posted: 21:52 - 08 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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| KAL9000 wrote: | Yes but your takeing the very narrow minded aproch to it...what happens in 50 years when they DO run out...then we will have the same problem we have today, its all about sustainability! |
But nothing has been suggested that does increase sustainability. If the oil lasts 50 years or we all use public transport and it lasts an extra couple of weeks is hardly important.
| KAL9000 wrote: | then the year after 90% of that...then 90% of that...ect
slowley, or probably quite quickley supply will fall short of demand...then prices will hit the roof. |
Except that misses the point totally. Yes it falls, but we have 40~50 years proven reserves at current rates of consumption that is economically viable. Prices go up and more reserves become economically viable, so the proven reserves become larger.
This is how we have gone from being told 30 years ago that we had 20 years worth of oil to now having double that.
| KAL9000 wrote: | well think in 2-3 years time when we have £3 per litre or maybe more... |
Except at that point plenty of other alternatives become financially viable.
| KAL9000 wrote: | now the pint made is that once they are all the same level the old ones will become viable again...yes they may become a cheaper option, but thats all relative..the prices will still be high...and they will just keep getting higher... |
They become viable long before that point. And you are confusing current short term high prices with any long term gradual increase.
| KAL9000 wrote: | so despite not acctualy running outof oil the prices will raise to such an extent as you wouldnt beabel to afford it... |
That does not follow at all. Price rises to the point where people cannot afford it and then demand goes down, so the price reduces.
All the best
Keith ____________________ Traxpics, track day and racing photographs - Bimota Forum - Bike performance / thrust graphs for choosing gearing |
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| plugger147 |
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 plugger147 World Chat Champion

Joined: 13 Mar 2005 Karma :     
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| TOM M |
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 TOM M World Chat Champion

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| Barry_M2 |
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 Barry_M2 World Chat Champion

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| John C |
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 John C World Chat Champion
Joined: 06 May 2005 Karma :  
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 Posted: 14:11 - 09 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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| craigie b |
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 craigie b Citizen Smith

Joined: 26 Jul 2004 Karma :     
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 Posted: 14:15 - 09 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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| kb-zxr |
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 kb-zxr Could Be A Chat Bot
Joined: 01 Jun 2005 Karma :  
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| John C |
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 John C World Chat Champion
Joined: 06 May 2005 Karma :  
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 Posted: 15:14 - 09 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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| innominate |
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 innominate Brolly Dolly

Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Karma :     
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 Posted: 15:19 - 09 Sep 2005 Post subject: |
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Hush child...
First point valid.
Second point a joke.
Sorry if thats difficult to wrap your brain cell around.
In the long run alternatives will become more avaliable. Problem is that when the petty is prohibitively expensive the alternatives , to start with, probably won't have the same energy value for the same volume.
Ideally I would like to be able to take, reliable, public Transport to commute everyday. Then just keep the bike for enjoying myself at the weekends. Then the higher prices that will come won't affect me as much.
But since public transport is more than twice as expensive as running my bike atm, then nothing much is going to change untill prices properly go through the roof. ____________________ I, as a responsible adult human being, will never concede the power to anyone to regulate my choice of what I put into my body, or where I go with my mind. From the skin inwards is my jurisdiction, is it not? I choose what may or may not cross that border. Here I am the customs agent. I am the coast-guard. I am the sole legal and spiritual government of this territory, and only the laws I choose to enact within myself are applicable.
Last edited by innominate on 15:30 - 09 Sep 2005; edited 1 time in total |
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| Vespa |
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 Vespa Traffic Copper
Joined: 12 Feb 2005 Karma :   
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 20 years, 275 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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