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| Lord Percy |
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Lord Percy
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| Monkeywrenche... |
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Monkeywrenche...
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 Posted: 17:06 - 01 Nov 2017  Post subject: |
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OK, that just states the same facts from a different viewpoint, a rise in CO2 has increased green plant life the only diffrence is that guys bias slants the facts to how it's not doing enough to reduce CO2.
I'm not denying the planet is warming or what the effects may be, although lack of consistency in the predictions leaves me with doubts. What I posit is that we shouldn't be too worried about things, mass extinctions are good for the world, like forest fires they clear dead wood and allow life to flourish after. A mass extinction caused by a change in the worlds climate (particularly if it includes Humans) would be of net benefit to the planet. just let it burn man.
Also you're pretty defensive at this point, reaching MPD levels of ad hominem attack. settle down and stop calling people names, it doesn't advance your argumant or make your facts more relevant if you start the conversation by calling someone a moron.
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| Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg
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| Posted: 19:31 - 01 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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| Lord Percy wrote: | It's like jumping off a cliff and telling me you might not hit the ground because nobody has presented and fully verified the "Rogerborg Jumps Off A Cliff Model" yet. |
When will I hit the ground? At what velocity? An actual scientist could tell me.
If I flap my arms and squawk, how much difference will it make?
Big reveal - I'm a true believer in this cult tenet: CO2 is a greenhouse gas and more of it will tend to make the earth warmer (for a spherical earth in a vacuum).
The issue is: how much? When? How much of any observed change (once we're done Correcting the numbers) is down to the Patriarchy? How big a difference will going back to caves make? What's the cost/benefit analysis for each mitigation strategy?
Since you apparently can't point at one single model that's managed to predict past changes, I'm not buying that there is one that will credibly predict the future beyond "Hotter, most likely, maybe wetter. Except the bits that are cooler, or drier. You will meet a tall dark stranger who will be significant in affairs of the heart."
If you believe differently, well, I respect your right to your faith.
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| asta1 |
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asta1
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| Posted: 21:54 - 01 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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| Rogerborg wrote: | | Lord Percy wrote: | It's like jumping off a cliff and telling me you might not hit the ground because nobody has presented and fully verified the "Rogerborg Jumps Off A Cliff Model" yet. |
When will I hit the ground? At what velocity? An actual scientist could tell me.
Big reveal - I'm a true believer in this cult tenet: CO2 is a greenhouse gas and more of it will tend to make the earth warmer (for a spherical earth in a vacuum).
The issue is: how much? |
That's the rub, isn't it. The problem is you want science to be able to predict the future with complete accuracy. But that's not what science does. Science is based on the observation of the universe and forming a hypothesis based on that which is testable. That's my 'religion' as it were, confidence in the method, not necessarily complete confidence in the current theory.
Even for your falling off a cliff example, a proper scientist won't say "You'll hit the ground." He/She'll say "Based on the observed evidence, I predict you'll acclerate at roughly 9.81ms2 until you hit the ground or reach terminal velocity", because, since we started measuring things that's what objects do on earth. However, if you jumped and floated, or fell at 7ms2 the scientific community would revise the theory. That's how this thing kinda works.
Apply this to global warming. All observed evidence suggests that adding effectively an 'insulator' to the atmosphere will heat up the system by retaining a higher percentage of energy imparted from a (relatively) constant source. Simple enough.
But here's the thing. The Earth is very complex and there are loads of variables. We also have a fairly narrow data set (comparatively), covering a couple of hundred years and only what 100 with any real reliability. Using that to try and state with certainty whats going to happen to you, in 10 years, in scottishland is practically impossible.
So what can we do? Collect more data, form hypotheses, model them and then test their predictions in the real world. Then refine them. If you look at the theories over the last 30 years, they predict loads of things, all of which seemed reasonable based on the data at the time.
What is however comforting is that the theories will only get more accurate. That's what they do (for the most part).
Of course, that doesn't really answer your question. The scientific community cannot stand up today and tell you with certainty the answers to your questions (How much, When etc.).
What they can however say is, "based on the observed data we have available, our best estimate is that because of human CO2, the earth will warm more quickly than it ever has before (that we're aware of), and that because of this x,y,z are likely to become more common in our weather systems.
We have observed the effect of past CO2 additions to the system and extrapolation of those trends suggests this rate and this magnitude of future rises. We estimate that there is this much CO2 trapped here and it will be released by z, leading to these effects."
Not a very satisfying answer really, but that's what we've got.
Worth bearing in mind though that even if we don't have all the nitty gritty answers, the general trend is becoming increasingly clear and it isn't great for us.
TL:DR Based on current data I can tell you that if you smoke it will probably kill you. I can't tell you how or when. Doesn't mean you shouldn't think of quitting though.
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Itchy
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Rogerborg
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asta1
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Posted: 23:34 - 01 Nov 2017  Post subject: |
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| Rogerborg wrote: | | asta1 wrote: | The problem is you want science to be able to predict the future with complete accuracy. |
Enough accuracy that we can make informed decisions about massive changes in the way that we live based on more than assumption, assertion, and a estimate. |
If it helps it's a very informed estimate...
How much accuracy do you want? I can tell you with at least some certainty that by the time we have the level of detail you seem to demand as proof it'll be too late to do anything about the resulting issues anyway.
That being the case, the options appear to be:
A. Stick head in sand and hope that it'll all blow over. We'll save many dollah in the short term and there's a small chance that you're right, and this isn't an issue and CO2 won't effect global temperatures, species etc any further than it has already been demonstrated to do and we can all dance merrily into the sunset. However, that's small comfort if the general trend suggested by all current data and supported by practically the entire scientific community holds out (quite likely and getting increasingly so), and we're all 'proper fucked'.
B. Hold off on any meaningful action waiting for a perfect theory with 100 percent accuracy - great in principle, but by the time we have it, it'll be entirely too late to do anything about it anyway: Default to option A by proxy.
C. Examine current evidence, accepting it's flaws and essentially take an informed gamble. Implement changes now at a not insignificant economic cost. Worst case, we were wrong, the economy was hurt significantly, we've pushed back our rise to the stars by 100 years and we have less pollution. Best case, we literally save humanity.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not trivialising the scale of the solution. It will take major changes to address this. It'll be costly, difficult and take a long time.
But do you have another option? You've mocked the suggestions of those who do this stuff for their day job, and that's fine, if you can do better. So what's your reasonable, real world suggestion for addressing this problem? Just ignore it? It's easy to say give me indisputable proof, and I understand why you'd want that, but that's not going to happen. There are very few things you can say with absolute certainty and this isn't going to be one of them anytime soon.
Ultimately you have to take a punt and watch how it falls. We did it with the hole in the ozone layer, we did it with public vaccinations and we'll do it again with this.
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Lord Percy
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Rogerborg
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Posted: 09:29 - 02 Nov 2017  Post subject: |
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| Lord Percy wrote: | Rogerborg doesn't understand the concept of chaos |
I was just talking to him about this, and it turns out that he was actually thinking in exactly those terms, although he suspects with a somewhat different conclusion to whatever it was that you just wrote.
Lorenz says that a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and Texas gets a tornado.
Stroke beard, nod profoundly, dine out on it for the next 40 years.
Orrell says "Sure, if your models are shit, you sperg".
Sane person: a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and our models can't track the consequences, so, as you were, I guess.
Climate Justice Warrior: a butterfly burns a leaf in Brazil and in 100 years time everybody dies unless you fund my research now.
Further, he says he's very confused by the inability to point to a single model that's accurately predicted climate changes over a period of at least twenty years up to today.
He finds it baffling how anyone could put their faith in a Science that's been so comically and consistently useless for any practical purposes, and delivered nothing but failed predictions followed by assertions that the next time, the next time, they'll get it right, and then we'll be sorry.
But he accepts that Gaia moves in mysterious ways.
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Lord Percy
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asta1
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| Posted: 13:24 - 02 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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| Rogerborg wrote: | | Lord Percy wrote: | The model |
Which model?
What the model's name? Who's running the model? For how long has the model been running? Where can I see the model's two decades or more of correct predictions about climate change up to today?
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I think we've been over this, there is no "The model". There are literally thousands of papers and models being published all the time, 3,500 in 2017 alone in fact.
This is for a number of reasons:
1. It's a popular area of interest to many people
2. Most researchers focus on a very specific area, such as the effect of climate change on coral bleaching on the Great Barrier reef for instance
3. If someone did publish a single paper or model trying to cover all of global warming and it's effects, either the resolution would be so poor that it wouldn't be useful for what you want, or it would be so computing power intensive that we couldn't run it anyway.
Let me make this abundantly clear to you: NO ONE PERSON CAN POSSIBLY SPECIALIZE IN GLOBAL WARMING IN ITS ENTIRETY. Therefore there is no one man with all the answers.
However, what we can do is use this diverse data set to try and identify key trends.
There are a few:
1. Temp is increasing
2. It's happening too fast and too much to be due to natural variation (99.5% confidence in the last paper I read)
3. This has generally detrimental effects on diverse ecosystems from coral to red deer
4. A rapidly changing climate is difficult to predict in the micro scale, but generally leads to more extreme weather events
5. Hot air = melty ice = higher sea levels.
On a macro level, that's all your gonna get.
If you have a specific area of interest (and I mean properly specific, as in the remit of a research paper), I can probably find a paper on that on web of science, but to demand to see 'The model for climate change' is ridiculous.
I can probably find you an introduction to literally any paper on global warming that will detail at least 3 of the 5 points above though if that helps. I can even get one from 1997 if it floats your boat...
In fact, here's a couple:
2004 review article on some of the species at risk of extinction due (at least in part) to climate change (Covers at least 3 of my points in the Abstract)
Extinction risk from climate change
By:Thomas, CD (Thomas, CD); Cameron, A (Cameron, A); Green, RE (Green, RE); Bakkenes, M (Bakkenes, M); Beaumont, LJ (Beaumont, LJ); Collingham, YC (Collingham, YC); Erasmus, BFN (Erasmus, BFN); de Siqueira, MF (de Siqueira, MF); Grainger, A (Grainger, A); Hannah, L (Hannah, L)...More
And a fun review paper on desertification (also ticks at least 3 of the above in the abstract alone)
Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change
By:Huang, JP (Huang, Jianping)[ 1 ] ; Yu, HP (Yu, Haipeng)[ 1 ] ; Guan, XD (Guan, Xiaodan)[ 1 ] ; Wang, GY (Wang, Guoyin)[ 1 ] ; Guo, RX (Guo, Ruixia)[ 1 ]
This obsession with one person who is the font of all knowledge is very puzzling. I blame the talking heads on 'popular science' features I reckon.
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Rogerborg
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| Posted: 13:37 - 02 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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| asta1 wrote: | there is no "The model". |
Tish and nonsense, there must be.
Because what sort of a brass necked charlatan would demand making massive changes to the entire global economy based on predicting what the future will be like, while not being able to show a the model which predicted even the last two decades?
I can't believe that anyone so ridiculous could exist, or that they'd be given a shred of credence by any reasonable person. It just beggars even a zealot's belief.
But more importantly, Percy said there was a the model.
Does he have the model? Is he keeping the model locked away? Is the model secreted in his volcano lair?
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| Posted: 15:01 - 02 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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And every the model is accurate, even when they disagree.
Here's how I see the conversation going:
Climate Justice Warrior: EVERYONE STOP EVERYTHING NAOW.
Rationalist: Or what?
Climate Justice Warrior: Terribad things will happen.
Rationalist: How bad, precisely?
Climate Justice Warrior: Verrrrrry terribad.
Since I've been hearing the same tune with varying lyrics from the same unwashed parasitical doom shriekers for the past four decades and then some, it's rather dulled the edge of my panic.
There is no credible prediction of the future, because none of these prophets predicted the past. Yes, for every Judith Curry you have 50 grant-chasers shrieking that they know, they know: but they don't know, do they?
And sure, all "scientists" of that ilk agree now, but they all agreed in the past about glacier-triggering global cooling, and the lethality of acid rain, and the fish-frog slave revolt, whatever garnered them the most attention and money and power.
I acknowledge that a few useful idiots are drawn into it for less cycnical reasons, because they fall for the group hysteria and then only expose themselves to views that re-enforce it. I'm sure their views are sincerely held, and that they will cling to them even as the predictions of doom continue to fail again and again, decade after decade, just like there are some well intentioned die-hards who are still awaiting the glaciers, and the acid floods, and the clammy batrachian claws.
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Sun Wukong
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Posted: 20:43 - 02 Nov 2017  Post subject: |
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Read. This. Book. Borgy.
Limits to Growth... nearly 50 years on, still accurate
That was cutting edge modeling in the day... and so far, shown to be true.
I can't get a neat enough picture on my potato phone, but a quote from the Revised Edition (2004) may interest you.
"Even in the most pessimistic [Limits to Growth 1972 (LTG)] scenario the material standard of living kept increasing all the way to 2015. Thus LTG placed the end of growth almost 50 years after the publication of the book."
You really are just singing "Lalala missing link" will vigorously masturbating on an imitation Trump hair piece.
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 21:27 - 02 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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I'm strangely enjoying this thread. Don't really care who's right 
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 23:20 - 02 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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| M.C wrote: | | chickenstrip wrote: | I'm strangely enjoying this thread. Don't really care who's right |
Can you tl;dr me? |
Not much point. The subject matter isn't why I'm enjoying it, although I've probably wrecked it now 
Beware of the troll.
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chickenstrip
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| Posted: 23:58 - 02 Nov 2017 Post subject: |
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| Sun Wukong wrote: | | chickenstrip wrote: |
Beware of the troll. |
Trump is also a troll.
He now sits on the throne.
Brexit was a troll.
It now rules the state of sterling.
Do not underestimate trolls. |
Meh.
a) not like Rogerborg will have any effect on the issue.
b) Not like you will have any effect on the issue.
c) Not like I can have any effect on the issue.
So yeah, meh 
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Posted: 00:36 - 03 Nov 2017  Post subject: |
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| Sun Wukong wrote: | | chickenstrip wrote: |
b) Not like you will have any effect on the issue.
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Maybe. Maybe not. |
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 6 years, 226 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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