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Itchy
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Joined: 07 Apr 2005
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PostPosted: 07:05 - 10 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
Question is Kickstart is what do we import enmasse?.... and is it enough to bridge the 10bn EACH month trade deficit.

I'm fairly sure that BAE doesn't export 10bn a month worth of wings, nor the Honda engine factory in the South , or the Nissan plant in the north (which as Clarkson says come pretty much complete in boxes off container ships and require a couple of screws to complete).

I can only really think of aircraft wings , weapons (declining), mercenaries (who keep the money for themselves anyway) and software , also financial services.

All high end items , in a world wide recession nobody'll have money to buy our exports and things like food will be in greater demand,
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Kickstart
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Joined: 04 Feb 2002
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PostPosted: 21:09 - 10 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
Hi

Even the software and financial services will benefit. Currency drops (say) 50% which makes imports less viable and hence domestic "products" (which could be food, software, a help desk monkey, etc) more viable.

All the best

Keith
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 07:26 - 11 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
Kickstart wrote:
Hi

Even the software and financial services will benefit. Currency drops (say) 50% which makes imports less viable and hence domestic "products" (which could be food, software, a help desk monkey, etc) more viable.

All the best

Keith


https://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e44405c-7f15-11dd-a3da-000077b07658.html

precis weak pound fails to significantly boost exports:

Also take from somebody else

Weak pound is going to nothing for most of UK manufacturing.

The cost base is too high, the (housing & .com) bubbles have obliterated any chance of a large proportion of the productive base ever considering growing in this situation, they can't afford it, they can't afford the land, they can't afford the premises and the staff can't afford to work in a competitive environment either because their fixed costs.

An economically deadly bubble.

Worse, as the banks are bailed out and suck up every last penny of money that should have been actively invested and used to make industry and growing companies more efficient it is those companies that get most starved of funds or simply do without because of the cost of them.

A double deadly bubble - look at the collapse of the shareprices of the minnows. Lots of good IP and ideas will be bought up for pennies on the pound when the foreign companies take advantage of a sinking pound and this situation.

Then there will be very little left - a few companies that are isolated from the bubble and sod all smaller companies ready and waiting to grow - no recovery, no 90's bounce, nothing.
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 08:37 - 11 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
We are all doomed. Who will be the first to slit their wrists? Any volunteers? Maybe the dooms day profits could show the way?
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igiyf
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Joined: 01 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: 16:08 - 11 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
shud up u facking spoon
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Kickstart
The Oracle



Joined: 04 Feb 2002
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PostPosted: 08:30 - 12 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
precis weak pound fails to significantly boost exports


Better precis would be to add a "yet" to the end. The pounds value has only just dropped (see here for historic rates). Barely a months worth of drop, and nowhere near long enough to filter through. For a start any purchases of goods / services where the exhange rate is going to be advantagous will need that exchange rate to to steady (or even better) at the time of payment not just ordering, so people need to be convinced the exchange rate drop is not a short term blip. And suppliers need to be in a position to satisfy those sales. Realistically it will need a fairly long lead time (eg, for agriculture it is going to be at least a year).

The exchange rate dropped from over $2:£1 to under $1.50:£1 in well under 6 months in late 1992.

Itchy wrote:
The cost base is too high, the (housing & .com) bubbles have obliterated any chance of a large proportion of the productive base ever considering growing in this situation, they can't afford it, they can't afford the land, they can't afford the premises and the staff can't afford to work in a competitive environment either because their fixed costs.


The exchange rate change is what can eliminate the problem with the cost base. At the moment we are suffering partly because we are paying so much to staff because of the fixed high costs. After all UK min wage is about $10 an hour while the US min wage is about $5 an hour. If the exchange rate goes down to a sustained $1.50:£1 then that changes it the UK min wage to $7.50 an hour, with no need to actually reduce the amount pain in pounds. And the housing bubble is bursting which is also reducing costs.

I agree that there are hard times ahead. I disagree with the doomsday scenario. What you see as things pushing us into that position I see as things that are necessary to prevent that scenario. The only reason things are going to be as painful as they are is that these corrections didn't happen earlier.

All the best

Keith
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 08:55 - 12 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
mad_man wrote:
shud up u facking spoon

Piss pot.
Oh didums. Did I urinate on your negativity?
Jesus doesn't like you.
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Hetzer
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PostPosted: 08:57 - 12 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
Skudd wrote:
mad_man wrote:
shud up u facking spoon

Piss pot.
Oh didums. Did I urinate on your negativity?
Jesus doesn't like you.


'The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.'

George Bernard Shaw
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igiyf
World Chat Champion



Joined: 01 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: 13:12 - 12 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
Skudd wrote:
mad_man wrote:
shud up u facking spoon

Piss pot.
Oh didums. Did I urinate on your negativity?
Jesus doesn't like you.


dunno who taught you to take it up the arse so quietly..listen fella..some people care about there futures and the shit being pushed onto them they dislike/dont want or agree with..just put every one who seems to talk about things you dont like on block-problem solved
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 06:29 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
mad_man wrote:


dunno who taught you to take it up the arse so quietly..listen fella..some people care about there futures and the shit being pushed onto them they dislike/dont want or agree with..just put every one who seems to talk about things you dont like on block-problem solved

I seemed to have bunked off school the day they were teaching anal sex. some people do care about the future, but some people just see a negative view point and spew out drivel. I find it interesting how much people try to defend the drivel and act like those who they despise within the drivel so much. Debate or even heated debate is one thing but the continuous anti- whatever on a bike forum does deserve the mocking it causes. The " telling it how it is and it is very bad" brigade have just become a caricature. i just enjoy the mocking of people who try so hard to be " right on" . Narrow mindedness in any form is still narrow mindedness and the scare mongers here are the most narrow I have ever read. But hey it is just a keyboard and I have had worse insults by people who could actually cause harm, just that they didn't get chance to cause the harm.
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Petty Anarchists look at "1984".............. The Visionary looks at "Animal Farm".
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igiyf
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PostPosted: 13:40 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
and if everything every one is saying is true? Laughing

Quote:
arrow mindedness in any form is still narrow mindedness and the scare mongers here are the most narrow I have ever read.


your well beyond narrow minded man you cant even look at the facts and when they mount to the point you cant denie them you just walk away and stop posting in that thread Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 17:32 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
mad_man wrote:
and if everything every one is saying is true? Laughing

Quote:
arrow mindedness in any form is still narrow mindedness and the scare mongers here are the most narrow I have ever read.


your well beyond narrow minded man you cant even look at the facts and when they mount to the point you cant denie them you just walk away and stop posting in that thread Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing


If you repeat drivel often enough it doesn't become a truth. i forget to post on drivel sometimes as some of the people on the posts don't matter. some think if they post the last post then they have "won". it is the internet, you are not important to me, get over it.
from time to time you may post a valid point but it is lost in the tripe. All your internet posturing means diddly squat. It doesn't matter how many poor sexual references you make, it doesn't make your point or the drivel more or less right or relevant.
Just remember, to me you are not important, you don't mean anything. I just think it is amusing how you need the affirmation from others to gain your worth.
and it is because I am open minded that the narrow minds of others become so apparent. We all know that there are wrongs in the world and society, but I also know that there is a lot of good too with many shades between.
There are cover ups and there is a need to know. There is also a here is everything. It is knowing what to view as false and what not to. it doesn't require the likes of you to ram the narrow minded views constantly until it becomes lost in the petty drivel.
If you don't like my posts you too can set me as enemy, but if you did that to all who find you mildly pathetic you wouldn't have anyone to argue with or rant to.
I will just carry on reading the views expressed by the people on this forum and comment as and when I see fit for me to do so, without, would you believe it, your permission. Or is that the freedom of speech you say that others are trying to restrict us from using?
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Famous last words of Humpty Dumpty. " Stop pushing me "
Petty Anarchists look at "1984".............. The Visionary looks at "Animal Farm".
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igiyf
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PostPosted: 17:40 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 17:42 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
One would have done, but like I said you do over do drivel
LPW
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Petty Anarchists look at "1984".............. The Visionary looks at "Animal Farm".
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igiyf
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PostPosted: 17:42 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
but you mean nothing to me! i say nothing!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 17:46 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
LPW ?
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igiyf
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PostPosted: 17:50 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
lpw?

Quote:
It doesn't matter how many poor sexual references you make, it doesn't make your point or the drivel more or less right or relevant.


and what? Laughing
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 18:05 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
LPW!
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igiyf
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PostPosted: 18:07 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
well done sweety!bye Very Happy
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 18:11 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
LPW Rolling Eyes
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igiyf
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PostPosted: 18:14 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
clearly i dont know what it means..having a nice ego trip about that? Laughing idiot Laughing Laughing
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 18:22 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
LPW and I don't need to insult you as you do it yourself.
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Petty Anarchists look at "1984".............. The Visionary looks at "Animal Farm".
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igiyf
World Chat Champion



Joined: 01 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: 18:47 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
Skudd wrote:
LPW and I don't need to insult you as you do it yourself.


excellent..yes LPW.. big insult to my self for not knowing it Thumbs Up Laughing
this goes much deeper for you than i thought,its as though people cant talk about any issues without you jumping in

"it does not work god dam it your getting nothing done"
"you take this way to seriously"
"i dont care Laughing "

do they deep down inside worry you that much Confused you clearly do care and if any one on these forums is taking matters a little to seriously that would be you..the assumption was never made that i mean anything to you Laughing and to come out and tell us all..well i think your going a little to deeply Wink
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Skudd
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PostPosted: 21:09 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
Your just treading water.
LPW Thumbs Up
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Famous last words of Humpty Dumpty. " Stop pushing me "
Petty Anarchists look at "1984".............. The Visionary looks at "Animal Farm".
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igiyf
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PostPosted: 21:11 - 13 Sep 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote
what is it with all the "your achieving nothing"..this is a forum..people talk here,people share there views here..no ones trying to save the world here,they are simply talking about it.

i have shared my views and bought few subjects up in the last few weeks,and all you have done in that time is attack them,and call them "useless drivel" and added many other interesting comments:lol:

im just treading water

"We are all doomed. Who will be the first to slit their wrists? Any volunteers? Maybe the dooms day profits could show the way?"



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