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Ukraine war and when Russia will collaps?

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to v or not to v
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PostPosted: 20:12 - 31 Oct 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
It being very quiet on the Ukraine front recently I was quite surprised to read this article......



the Great Satan has now set its sights on Iran.
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DaddyStu
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PostPosted: 17:26 - 01 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
It being very quiet on the Ukraine front recently


Usually that means Ukraine isn't doing so well. Lost 100 villages/towns in October last I read.

The West will do something soon to change up the narrative. Zelensky is asking for Tomahawk cruise missiles (1500km range).
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 17:57 - 01 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder if the secondment of North Korean troops to the Ukranian front will make the US more keen to stick its oar in.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 18:28 - 01 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

We'll have to see what they get the Koreans doing. My prediction is something low-key like securing a village after the meat-grinder's swept through.

Ukrainian drones will switch from targeting generals to Russian/Korean translators Shocked
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 20:55 - 01 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Might be easier for them politically because I think America is still techincally at war with NK.
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 19:54 - 02 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
Might be easier for them politically because I think America is still techincally at war with NK.


Hmmm,the US may still be technically at war with NK but I reckon the Chinese are both more enthusiastic and likely to go help the Ukrainians than the US are.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 13:41 - 21 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Again the looming threat of nuclear war:

Fury in Russia at 'serious escalation' of missile move

If a nuke was dropped on London tomorrow hundreds, maybe thousands of English people might die Sad
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M.C
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PostPosted: 14:47 - 21 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
Again the looming threat of nuclear war:

Fury in Russia at 'serious escalation' of missile move

If a nuke was dropped on London tomorrow hundreds, maybe thousands of English people might die Sad

Laughing

Unfortunately for some it wouldn't just be London... https://youtu.be/r4eJvwtQJu4?feature=shared&t=17
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 17:39 - 21 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

If they ever make the Ukraine conflict into a computer game this is where you'd drop a quicksave just to see if Russia has any functional nukes left Smile
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DaddyStu
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PostPosted: 13:30 - 22 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
If they ever make the Ukraine conflict into a computer game this is where you'd drop a quicksave just to see if Russia has any functional nukes left Smile


Their response to the next western escalation may well be to prove that fact at some undisclosed location.

Lets see how far the West are willing to push this thing. I have a nice cave picked out by a lake up near Rhayader.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 14:35 - 22 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

DaddyStu wrote:
Their response to the next western escalation may well be to prove that fact at some undisclosed location.


Seriously, I think you might be on to something there.

It's not possible, with seismological systems scattered throughout today's world, to conduct a nuclear weapons test unnoticed. Putin would know this and then find some particularly desolate part of Siberia to try one of the old warheads out. It can be a below ground test to minimise radioactive fallout, if he was inclined to be bothered about such things.

Cue international geologists going apoplectic with the Kremlin remaining schtoom so everyone sweats a bit.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 16:22 - 22 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
DaddyStu wrote:
Their response to the next western escalation may well be to prove that fact at some undisclosed location.


Seriously, I think you might be on to something there.

It's not possible, with seismological systems scattered throughout today's world, to conduct a nuclear weapons test unnoticed. Putin would know this and then find some particularly desolate part of Siberia to try one of the old warheads out. It can be a below ground test to minimise radioactive fallout, if he was inclined to be bothered about such things.

Cue international geologists going apoplectic with the Kremlin remaining schtoom so everyone sweats a bit.


If he did actually nuke a country with a ballistic missile, proving he still had the capability, do you think any country, which in reality would mean the USA, UK or France, would retaliate?. I honestly don't believe they would. I have the horrible feeling it would tear NAto apart.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 17:52 - 22 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:


If he did actually nuke a country with a ballistic missile, proving he still had the capability, do you think any country, which in reality would mean the USA, UK or France, would retaliate?. I honestly don't believe they would. I have the horrible feeling it would tear NAto apart.


They might not retaliate with nuclear weapons against a single strike but I don't think it would go unanswered.

I think the whole East European tank battle scenario has been firmly put to bed by the Ukraine conflict. The effectiveness of the air force is also seriously in question and frankly, the overall effectiveness of all parts of the Russian military. One would assume their nuclear capability is similarly creaky.

There may well be an ongoing re-thinking of how effective a NATO "first strike" using conventional weapons to neuter the nuclear threat might be. Especially given our greater ability to find them using modern technology than there was when this kind of thing last seemed to be on the cards. Are their mobile launchers in as good a state as their armour? I bet the static ICBM sites are all known and I wouldn't be surprised if their subs are all being tracked. How good would their ability to fend-off a massive Gulf War 1 style air incursion be?

Would China step-in to support them?

All questions that are almost certainly currently being asked.
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Nobby the Bastard
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PostPosted: 17:56 - 22 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

As NATO is a defensive treaty there will be no 'first strike' plans.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 18:14 - 22 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
As NATO is a defensive treaty there will be no 'first strike' plans.


Maybe Mr. Stinkwheel meant "First Response" (to a casual nuke)?

What I'm saying is, Putin doesn't need to nuke anyone specifically. He's already done his ICBM test so he's made it clear to the world: Russia can lob things long distances. Testing a nuke in his own backyard just raises the stakes without committing to anything. He only has to get a few people in NATO to think "he might just do it" Shocked
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 00:20 - 23 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobby the Bastard wrote:
As NATO is a defensive treaty there will be no 'first strike' plans.


Of course they have first strike plans. They would be totally negligent if they didn't.

Using then is of course a different ball game but they are certainly on the table.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 00:38 - 23 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
Of course they have first strike plans. They would be totally negligent if they didn't.


On paper, in a binder marked "Eyes Only" that no one ever sees. Officially NATO is a defence pact and let's leave it at that.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 00:46 - 23 Nov 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
Polarbear wrote:
Of course they have first strike plans. They would be totally negligent if they didn't.


On paper, in a binder marked "Eyes Only" that no one ever sees. Officially NATO is a defence pact and let's leave it at that.


Who was it that said ' Offense is the best form of defense'?

OK, first strike is the wrong terminology. An overwhelming response is probably better. I accept NATO will never be the first to launch a nuke.
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Val
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PostPosted: 12:53 - 08 Dec 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

The worst week for Putin ever! Can't wait for Putler to have Asad day.

1. The rubble is gone. Central Russian bank has banned trading and disclosing any rubble info until 2025.
2. The biggest war losses ever this week since the war has started, on average over 1,500 people either killed or wounded every single day!
3. The West does not give a fuck about his nuclear threats anymore.
4. Syria and Asad has fallen.
5. Last but not least Georgia Maidan.

Putin banging about Russian bases in Syria threatening to destroy the rebels.

How that ended eh? Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth Laughing



https://youtu.be/TREx1gK1CM4
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 15:06 - 08 Dec 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you ever take the time to understand this propaganda or do you just post it blindly?

It makes a lot of sense the situation in Syria has changed - Russia's distracted in the Ukraine, Iran and its proxies getting bitch-slapped by Israel - but is the cure worse than the disease?

What's going to happen to the sizeable Christian and Alawism minorities - a quiet genocide when no one's looking? Are all the Syrian refugees cheering on the streets of London and Berlin going to pack up and go back home now?
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 17:31 - 08 Dec 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy-X wrote:
Do you ever take the time to understand this propaganda or do you just post it blindly?

It makes a lot of sense the situation in Syria has changed - Russia's distracted in the Ukraine, Iran and its proxies getting bitch-slapped by Israel - but is the cure worse than the disease?

What's going to happen to the sizeable Christian and Alawism minorities - a quiet genocide when no one's looking? Are all the Syrian refugees cheering on the streets of London and Berlin going to pack up and go back home now?


Probably another Islamic theocracy. Lets just hope to God (pun intended) that we don't get something on the Afghan/Isis level of Islamic oppression.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 22:05 - 08 Dec 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
But yeah I am the blind one who is feeding propaganda here not you posting BS that has no resemblance with the actual facts and what has happened Rolling Eyes


I'm not the one taking George's shilling to post propaganda in obscure forums.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 13:26 - 09 Dec 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyhoo, referring back to the thread title: half way through 2025 if the Orange Hooligan doesn't attempt something dramatic and hilarious. By then Russia will have run out of a significant range of materiel and will be relying on domestic production and North Korean imports.

If the war survives past January 2025, Putin will need to make all his moves before the close of the summer. After that the lack of a decent number tracked vehicles will have a massive impact on his increasing reliance on towed artillery pieces going into the mud season.
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Val
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PostPosted: 16:57 - 10 Dec 2024    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
Easy-X wrote:
Do you ever take the time to understand this propaganda or do you just post it blindly?

It makes a lot of sense the situation in Syria has changed - Russia's distracted in the Ukraine, Iran and its proxies getting bitch-slapped by Israel - but is the cure worse than the disease?

What's going to happen to the sizeable Christian and Alawism minorities - a quiet genocide when no one's looking? Are all the Syrian refugees cheering on the streets of London and Berlin going to pack up and go back home now?


Probably another Islamic theocracy. Lets just hope to God (pun intended) that we don't get something on the Afghan/Isis level of Islamic oppression.


In the real world:

Quote:
Al-Watan newspaper writes in its online edition that the country's new leader Al-Joulani "categorically prohibits interference with women's clothing and making demands related to their appearance, including demands for modesty. We affirm that personal freedom is guaranteed for everyone and that respect for individual rights is the basis for building a civilized nation...and wants good relationships with Israel"


https://ivo.bg/2024/12/10/%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD-%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%B8-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%8A%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8-%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/
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