No crash + time = more chance of crash?

[Huambo81a]

Think it was on diesel, turn right into a junction and put a little too much throttle on, back tried to overtake me although i luckily caught it.

Some of you are probably thinking 'ahhh bless:P' but i have honestly never even come close to losing the back end before, so it put the shits in me.

Kinda makes me realise that the longer you go without an accident, the more likely one becomes. What do you think, is that true?

My riding does seem to be getting progressively more bold as time goes on. In a car this is fine, because if you come a cropper its usually just a controllable slide, and thats how you define the limit (if you choose to reach it)

I suppose what i`m saying (albeit in a convoluted and overly long way) is that the better i become at riding, the less fear i have, and the closer i come to the bikes limits without realising it. Surely the only way i will know i have come close to the limit is to fall on my ass.
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Present: 2017 KTM Super Adventure S
Past: 97 Bandit 600 / 05 Bandit 1200 / 03 ZX6-R / 2006 Tuono R / 2001 VFR 800 / 2010 Street Triple R / 2013 Speed Triple S / 2017 S1000XR

[UrbanRacer]

i feel the exact same way as yourself.

[ColdInsomnia]

I do believe that if you have an accident, you are less likely to have another.

But I don't think that it works the other way around.

Have you seen Final Destination? You may have just cheated death when you lost your back wheel then... and death is a stubborn bastard.
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Yamaha YB100 | Yamaha TZR125 | Yamaha XJ600S | Suzuki GSF600
"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it."
John Lennon

[Itchy]

Yup , you get risk compensation and also you understand what you can get away with on the roads.
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Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.

[Kwaks]

[froggeh]

Gonna touch lots of wooden things before I comment...

Right done it...

I disagree.

I passed my DAS in September, bought a hornet the next day.
So that first week on a 600 was with less than 20 hours lifetime bike riding experience.

The first day out I lost the back end on a roundabout and it shit me up.

4 months on and I feel so much more confident.
This time next year I imagine I will feel even more so.

I reckon as long as you don't go mad, then the more experience you have, the less likely you are to have an off (Not withstanding those that are not your fault)

Perhaps it's just different for different people.
As you say you become more bold. (Take more risks?)

[Itchy]

thing is frog you have a moment then ride slow the rest of the ride , me I skidded on ice up Rivvington for the quick lap I took you on , thought meh and continued to give it some welly,

Or snake pass turn 12 I hate that one , I always take it too hot , but think meh , and continue giving it some.
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Spain 2008France 2007Big one 2009 We all die. The goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will. In the end, your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it is worth watching.

[Huambo81a]

well, its been 15 months and no incidents yet. I consider myself to be a good rider for the miles i have done (over 25k since passing) but there is always that feeling that im getting closer to the edge.

You are right, i corrected the skid this time, and looking back on it, it was avoidable (right turn, next to a petrol station, in questionable conditions) but i do get bolder as time goes by.

There are people on here who would probably think i was a slow rider if they rode with me, but then your 'limit' on a motorcycle is perhaps higher than mine. Maybe i am being too paranoid. Maybe as my skill increases, so do my limits? haha

When i`m on my bike, i don`t stop to question all of this nonsense, its when i`m not riding that I think "you took a risk too many that time"

Maybe the answer is to constantly ride my bike> I have been a pussy with the weather this year, i was out in all sorts last year on my Bandit 12, but since i got a shiny Kawasaki i dont want the salt and crap to ruin it.

ahh, ce la vie
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Present: 2017 KTM Super Adventure S
Past: 97 Bandit 600 / 05 Bandit 1200 / 03 ZX6-R / 2006 Tuono R / 2001 VFR 800 / 2010 Street Triple R / 2013 Speed Triple S / 2017 S1000XR

[Gradog]

I have to disagree with your synopsis.
Accidents are only waiting to happen if you let them. Accident prevention is about forseeing the accident ( road craft) & avoiding those that you failed to see (skill). Speed only plays a part of it and comes under road craft ie knowing when to welly it and when to ease off. The more you ride the better these skills are developed. Skill also comes with practice and the back stepping out etc. just goes to hone those skills.
I hate to sound pompous but there is no way on earth you are going to push the bikes boundaries, it is only yours you need to worry about, feeling the bike, letting it tell you what is going on, and then having faith that you can push yourself that little bit further.
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[Shaun]

It depends if you get more confident and cock quickly or gradually. If you do it gradually you have small slides which scare you at first but you get used to them as such and learn how to save them, more importantly your reflexes learn to save them so you don't have to think about it.

I haven't had an off for about 3.5 years, then on saturday I locked the front on tesco car park, bars went full lock to the right and the bike started going over. My reflexes kicked in, I let go of the brake and stamped my foot down to straighten up then swerved around the car I was about to hit. Nicely saved thought I.

My point being that just becasue I haven't crashed for so long doesn't mean I won't react the right way because I aren't used to crashing. You didn't fall off either so you did something right.

Oh and just for the record, I blame my incident on my right hand, not diesel or a bad surface or any other of the 'usual' crash excuses.

[Finglonga]

[Huambo81a]

You are absolutely right, it was my right hand that got me into trouble, although such a detail seems a little pedantic. You could trace the fault back to my fathers sperm.

I suppose i could have seen the diesel, but then again it was 8.30pm, and pitch black. There are some things that you can acocunt for, and there are others that you cant.

"if you have trouble with simple observations you need to look hard at your riding skills"

I feel kind of insulted by that, theres just a bit of a patronising undertone there. I came on here and freely slated my own riding in an attempt to find out what you guys think.
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Present: 2017 KTM Super Adventure S
Past: 97 Bandit 600 / 05 Bandit 1200 / 03 ZX6-R / 2006 Tuono R / 2001 VFR 800 / 2010 Street Triple R / 2013 Speed Triple S / 2017 S1000XR

[st3v3]

TBH, you wanted to ask what we think, as finglonga wrote it, that is what you got an opinion.

But at the same time, I think some riders sharpness/perception can 'slack off' after a period without incident, others however, lay in wait for the incident and when it comes they are ready for it.

Tis just the way we ride, no two are the same.
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[Finglonga]

[mistergixer]

@ Huambo81a:

The best thing i ever did was buy a motocross bike and raz it around the local fields - after a while the loss of 'normal' control tends to produce less of a reaction in your ringpiece.
I have to add that, whilst it may have taught me to control the twitching of the chocolate starfish, this incredible feet of rectal realisation was bought at the expense of lots of crashes, 2 fucked RM125's, loosing a lot of skin and several weeks off work.
However, now when the bike gets out of shape, i am in more of a fit state to deal with the slide, as i'm not worrying so much about filling my leathers with liquid shit.

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Don Eladio is dead. His capos are dead. You have no one left to fight for. Fill your pockets and leave in peace. Or fight me and die!
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[BFG]

[Ariel Badger]

Some times the coin lands on its edge.
That is not a good day for riding.
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Bikers make great organ donors, get 115 on your licence today.

[Zimbo]

In my opinion a rider of around one to two years experience is probably about most likely to have a serious accident.
When you first start off riding you have no skill and no idea, and you ride slowly and cautiously.
As your experience and ability grows, so does your confidence, and after a while you have no problem using full throttle at times on powerful bikes, your brain starts to become accustomed to processing the high speed visual input required when riding fast, and you gradually become overconfident, making overtakes in small spaces etc.
It's only when something goes wrong and you fail to deal with it that you realise you still have a lot to learn. Thankfully most of us get through this stage without actually crashing, though we may well find ourselves in incredibly dangerous situations over which we have no control from time to time. Some of us don't make it though.
As your experience grows further you tend to ride more defensively and spot potential problems earlier, and your risk of serious accident starts to diminish again.

[danzai66]

...going on from Zimbo i think statistiaclly you're more likely to have a crash after around two years than any other time...that skill/experience/over pushing it crossover...

80% of crashes are by people with less than 2 years experience. (maids report i think)

makes sense i guess..would be interesting to see the curve tho in regards to being over cautious then over confident...
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Ridey, riding a Black '08 CBR600RR

[eifion]

[THCi]

[Dan O]

I hope the insurance companies aren't paying attention to this, or they'll chuck out no-claims bonuses and start charging us extra if we DON'T have a crash
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Daniel

[instigator]