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craigie b
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PostPosted: 10:09 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: How F*cked are we? Reply with quote

Hiya,
I just read the following on the BBC's webpage....

Quote:
For the Financial Times, panic sparked the global plunge.

The Times quotes financier George Soros who calls it the most serious financial crisis since the Second World War.

The Daily Telegraph notes that the London market has experienced its worst start to a year since the index of 100 leading shares was established in 1984.

'Black Monday'

Amid the misery over the financial markets is foreboding, all pointing in the same direction - towards recession.

The Guardian is not the only paper to describe the global share crash as "Black Monday".

"Yes, this is starting to look like a recession," reports the City editor of the Daily Mail.

One pessimistic German broker in London tells the Independent: "Getting drunk won't help because there'll be more of the same tomorrow."

'Dark days'

The papers are downbeat about the Treasury's plans to bail out struggling lender Northern Rock.

The Daily Telegraph says the plan to sell off debts as government bonds is a "return to the dark days of the 1970s".

The Times explains that there is still some risk to taxpayers' cash if the bank fails to pay bond-holders.


Its basically the same as what I am reading in the Asian Papers at present. The thing is I have no economic background and generally have no idea of what the above could lead too, on a global scale and more importantly on a local scale in the UK.

Would anyone with a background in economics care to give me a greater insight into the current economic woes?

Cheers
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Hetzer
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PostPosted: 11:02 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

All pretty much started by banks in the US lending mortgage money to people who were unable to make the repayments.

This is the primary failing of the capitalist system...unmitigated greed that assumes growth is a pre-requisite for success. Who drives this mindset? The scum at the top who think their positions won't be secure unless they're feeding ever larger dividends to the shareholders. This is why you see gas-stations selling groceries and supermarkets selling gas (etc etc etc).

Then you have people living on slave-labour wages, where most of their earned income goes into taxes and bills and basic necessities (food and clothing etc). Money for toys, leisure and pleasure, comes as credit (credit cards and loans). And when the credit runs out...recession.
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owdamer
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PostPosted: 12:57 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sure am glad I paid off all my credit cards. 0% finance for the last 5 years or so. thank you very much.
Only think I pay interest on now is my mortgage, which is currently about half what my humble house is worth.
I'm on a piss poor income so if I cant afford it I dont buy it.
The days of replacing something because a better one is released are long gone for me.
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Kris
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PostPosted: 13:12 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hyper-inflation, coming to a United States near you soon...
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craigie b
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PostPosted: 13:27 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

The the lack of response worries me more than the actual papers headlines because it indicates either

A: Nobody really has a clue or B:Nobody gives a crap because their pocket is OK at the minute.

One thing that disturbed me, seriously, when I was last in the UK was the News. Your energy prices shot up 30%, Fuel is over £1.05 yet the news covered this in roughly fifteen second because seemingly Britney Spears going fucking mental is a real issue that deserves fifteen minutes of the beebs time.

If the mentality of our population is that of seeing star trivia over real issues that effect our lives then it won't be until we're really fucked that people begin to open their eyes.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:51 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like the Japanese and the San Franciscoites we are in for a REALLY BIG ONE.

Normally in good times governments save some surplus so that when there are bad times we still have something to tide ourselves over,

Problem is there is nothing left most of our gold was sold in '99 at a record low price , we can't borrow more , we can't keep printing more money as it becomes even more worthless and have no gold to back it up,

Effectively perfect storm time, Gordo and NL supporters will no doubt blame it on anybody but themselves ,

Recession always follows booms , and his trickery of No more boom and Bust is a big lie,

Since we have no government money or fiscal/monetary polcies left to soften the blow of a recession , its going to be a REALLY big painful recession.

To add insult to injury taxes are supposed to be cut to ease the burden during recessions, but taxes are going to go up.

Effect?

Government prints more money to pay bills fiat currency, this devalues the currency since we have no gold to back it up. Inflation goes to the moon,

Bottom line?

Wages go down due to inflation ,
taxes increase ,
prices of everything increases (due to imported everything)

Average joe is poorer as per usual.

The elites with money left buy up EVERYTHING when it bottoms out and thus can increase prices at will.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:54 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

craigie b wrote:

One thing that disturbed me, seriously, when I was last in the UK was the News. Your energy prices shot up 30%, Fuel is over £1.05 yet the news covered this in roughly fifteen second because seemingly Britney Spears going fucking mental is a real issue that deserves fifteen minutes of the beebs time.
.


Hey I did various things:

fuel prices went up? , I put another jumper on, and turn virtually everything off in the house at the socket.

I went and installed lo flush things on all my toilets,

I signed up for an asda card and pay it off gives me -2p a litre off,

I use my washing machine in the middle of the night = cheaper.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 14:05 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Owdamer wrote:
Sure am glad I paid off all my credit cards. 0% finance for the last 5 years or so. thank you very much.
Only think I pay interest on now is my mortgage, which is currently about half what my humble house is worth.
I'm on a piss poor income so if I cant afford it I dont buy it.
The days of replacing something because a better one is released are long gone for me.


A little silver lining is this, as long as you are not murdered or gouged for your possessions and you weather the storm sensibly, once it hits bottom and you've been sensible the market will be awash with repossessed goods/houses/bikes.

but as said thats IF you survive the lootings , massive increases in crime and taxes .

Make a few purchases though , go buy a few baseball bats , and various other useful weaponry. 2013 , you'll see 2008-09 1000cc bikes for a shade under 1K.
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Hetzer
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PostPosted: 14:05 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not the lack of gold that devalues a currency, it's a lack of produce that anyone else wants to use a currency to buy.

You have to think of a country like a shop.

So we go to the American shop and say "I'll give you ten of my pounds for that gizmo". The American guy goes "But you've got fvck-all worth having on the shelves in your shop, so you can shove that £10 note up yo ass."

This country spends more than it earns in the global market, which is why our deficit is so high. At some point that chicken is going to come home to roost.

The entire global economy functions on credit, but that is a finite resource. At some point people have to stop borrowing so they can meet the payments on what they already owe. And when they do that the shops ain't selling their stuff anymore. Vicious circle time. They then have to lay-off staff, who are then unable to meet their payments on what they owe...

Six billion+ people, dwindling resources, increased longevity, the entire shambles is teetering on the edge while the elite prepare to corner everything and leave the masses hanging in the wind.

At least it won't be unexciting. Laughing
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 14:09 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hetzer wrote:
It's not the lack of gold that devalues a currency, it's a lack of produce that anyone else wants to use a currency to buy.
:


I know this , the gold standard vanished along with the Dodo, and changed to fiat currency ie what you are saying , but that doesn't mean you don't hold on to your gold, gold is still excellent collateral these days.

While now we few things people want to buy and very little collateral also, with no collateral people will loan money at terrible interest rates or not loan it you at all.
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owdamer
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PostPosted: 14:10 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

craigie b wrote:
The the lack of response worries me more than the actual papers headlines because it indicates either

A: Nobody really has a clue or B:Nobody gives a crap because their pocket is OK at the minute.


Nothing I do will make a difference so why should I care? Me sitting here worrying about wont change anything other than my blood pressure.
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faddius
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PostPosted: 14:35 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

If it goes really bad...well read up on the great depression in america - 1920's ish
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D O G
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PostPosted: 14:48 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meh, everybody likes a good story, and to talk it all up.

I can see no hard evidence that we are heading for a global depression. Slowdown, sure, recession (where growth rate is lower than historical average growth), probably, but essentially nothing too horrendous is out there.

A bit of higher inflation (as long as reasonably matched with wage growth) would do the UK people pretty good on the whole - since we are net borrowers, those debts become cheaper in real terms.

Remember that we also have the propsect of a new US president, who, as long as they are more acceptable than GWB to the markets and people (and lets face it, that's not difficult), then we will get a boost then too.
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owdamer
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PostPosted: 14:50 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

faddius wrote:
If it goes really bad...well read up on the great depression in america - 1920's ish


Quote:
THE USA IN THE 1920's
The USA was one of the victors in the First World War and it enjoyed a period of great prosperity in the 1920's


Quote:
In the 1930's the Great Depression began in America and its effects were very serious there.


Boom and bust. I'm sure i've heard that somewhere before.
What goes around, comes around. Its happened before, it'll happen again.
Unless theres a radical change to the ways of the world it'll just keep on repeating itself until the end of civilisation.
Like Hetz says, At least it won't be unexciting.
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faddius
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PostPosted: 15:00 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

As long as theres still somewhere that I can buy a kebab I dont care.

I really think im craving a kebab today.
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craigie b
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PostPosted: 15:34 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Nothing I do will make a difference so why should I care? Me sitting here worrying about wont change anything other than my blood pressure.


I think you miss the point of my post.

I am asking because if all the evidence points to hard times ahead then maybe it is time to start thinking about how to secure your own future.

The post is not to start a revolution but to give food for thought so myself, personally, can protect my interests in the up and coming future and possibly others too.
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Liam_
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PostPosted: 15:37 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is a great video explaining it all in english

https://view.break.com/428454
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owdamer
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PostPosted: 15:47 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

craigie b wrote:

I am asking because if all the evidence points to hard times ahead then maybe it is time to start thinking about how to secure your own future.


Well I suppose I could bolt the front door. I'm off work sick at the moment, not getting paid, so putting a little aside is probably out of the question this month. Only thing that springs to mind is instead of throwing all my junk away, perhaps I should try to ebay it. It might make me a few quid, but i'm not sure it'll help anyone else though.
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Kris
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PostPosted: 17:08 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interest rate cut - to SAVE the economy! Bwahahaha! Laughing

Even Bloomberg News (11/01/08) predicted a rate cut and stated

"If the Fed drops rates, a lower dollar will propel gold higher,'' said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Chicago. ``Everything we buy is going to be more expensive. Any raw material will go through the roof. The smart people see inflation.''

https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZsxnQer7S2g&refer=home

Yet the BBC (and no doubt ABC/SKY/NBC/ITV yadayada) report that it's a shock, and also to save the economy.

https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7202645.stm

Yes, it's official. Up is down and left equals right folks. Rolling Eyes Laughing

Just shows how dumb and retarded they think we all are...
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TheShaggyDA
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PostPosted: 17:14 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm sure I need to buy pork bellies.
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D O G
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PostPosted: 17:25 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Dollar value plummets"

Maybe I take back what I said before.

Its ok when papers start panicking and being all doom and gloom, but I'd rather the most influential bank in the world wouldn't.
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JonB
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PostPosted: 17:33 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

The thing that bugs me most right now is petrol prices.

The Oil companies know they now are onto a winner.

When petrol was in the 90p's the oil companies were treading carefully before it went to the £1.00 a litre mark, but once they have got over the psychological pound barrier have you seen how petrol prices go up on a weekly basis now? I know oil is like $100 a barrel, but I can easily see petrol prices at current trends being nearly £1.20 a litre by the end of 2008.
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cestrian
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PostPosted: 18:19 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

"I can easily see petrol prices at current trends being nearly £1.20 a litre by the end of 2008" - Jon B

How long before it's a luxury Jon?
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owdamer
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PostPosted: 18:29 - 22 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

cestrian wrote:


How long before it's a luxury?


It is already isn't it?
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craigie b
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PostPosted: 12:09 - 23 Jan 2008    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The Oil companies know they now are onto a winner.


You think they have just figured out by curtailing the supply that they are onto a winner? Come on now. Since the Iraq war, which caused an oil supply drop every company has posted record profits until last year.

Less Product=More money. Its no wonder the oil companies are so powerful.
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