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Collapse of sterling and biking.

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kawakid
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PostPosted: 21:09 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Collapse of sterling and biking. Reply with quote

Anyone watching the news its depressing.

Just wondering on what affect this is going to have on the biking industry.

Currency rates are normally hedged for a year in advance , so we are going to face price increases.

With foreign bike costs likely to raise significantly this might be a good for UK exporters principally Triumph.

Saying that its not just the bikes themselves , its the gear as well.
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Wafer_Thin_Ham
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PostPosted: 21:13 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now is the time to buy British.

Support your local industries people.

https://artfiles.art.com/images/-/Alfred-Leeze/Your-Country-Needs-You-Featuring-Lord-Kitchener-Giclee-Print-C12729026.jpeg

On a serious note it's already happening.

Arai, Shoei, Dainese, AGV, Rev It and Sidi have all put prices up in the past few months.
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MinhDinh
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PostPosted: 21:26 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

yeah tyres have gone up also.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 21:30 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I've been stating in many other threads anything made over seas will go up in price , since EVERYTHING is made overseas these days , and before kickstart says it, the materials to make things that are made in the UK are also imported from overseas , hence there is NO advantage of trashing the currency.... as the currency is trashed and yet we have no exports to exploit this.

This means the price of everything goes up

Oh that also includes petrol , and triumph bikes which have tons of overseas made parts...

Anybody seen that hyperinflation trigger?

Now if only the government would jack interest rates to 15%-25% where they belong to defend the currency a bit or sell their dollars and buy pounds.



The currency is going down because the market is pricing in the UK going bankrupt , you can NEVER buck the market.

But I reckon Ireland , Greece , Spain first.
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Last edited by Itchy on 21:34 - 23 Jan 2009; edited 2 times in total
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Wafer_Thin_Ham
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PostPosted: 21:31 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

MinhDinh wrote:
yeah tyres have gone up also.


Don't even get me started on the Pirelli price increases. Evil or Very Mad
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MinhDinh
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PostPosted: 21:38 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

Big_Ham wrote:
MinhDinh wrote:
yeah tyres have gone up also.


Don't even get me started on the Pirelli price increases. Evil or Very Mad


i need to get a set of tyres. 200 quid minimum quoted from aprilia centre + fitting. a cheap place in hackney said free fitting but 200 quid. i was like wow it's only a 125.


there are tyres on line that add up to 165 for me atm which isn't too bad but still a lot!


anyway trying my luck to get cheap tyres from the mcn show.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 21:49 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
As I've been stating in many other threads anything made over seas will go up in price , since EVERYTHING is made overseas these days , and before kickstart says it, the materials to make things that are made in the UK are also imported from overseas , hence there is NO advantage of trashing the currency.... as the currency is trashed and yet we have no exports to exploit this.


Yes there is an advantage, as the labour part of anything drops. Eg, say Honda has €5000 of imported components and £1500 of labour building it and is sold for $10000. At €1.50 = £1 that leaves €2750 between the build price and the sale price. At €1.10 = £1 there is $3350 between the build price and the sale price.

Sure we don't make a massive amount. But still make 2~3m cars, still make a very large number of aero engines (and the profits on those are mainly from the spare parts through their life), still make a fair amount of military hardware, etc.

While a strong currency is nice for those who want to spend their money abroad or buy imported toys, with UK employment costs it really screws up remaining manufacturing industry.

All the best

Keith
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salty21
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PostPosted: 22:07 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

why cant that mint place that makes our currency just make a shit load more and pass it about? sorted Thumbs Up

thats my good deed for the day Very Happy
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 22:09 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:

Yes there is an advantage, as the labour part of anything drops. Eg, say Honda has €5000 of imported components and £1500 of labour building it and is sold for $10000. At €1.50 = £1 that leaves €2750 between the build price and the sale price. At €1.10 = £1 there is $3350 between the build price and the sale price.

Sure we don't make a massive amount. But still make 2~3m cars, still make a very large number of aero engines (and the profits on those are mainly from the spare parts through their life), still make a fair amount of military hardware, etc.

While a strong currency is nice for those who want to spend their money abroad or buy imported toys, with UK employment costs it really screws up remaining manufacturing industry.

All the best

Keith



Erm no , labour prices will if anything increase, as in a high inflation environment workers will demand higher pay* since they need to eat mostly imported food which has increased in cost and buy ancillary things such as petrol to get to work which has also increased in price since it is also imported (increasing).

Hence £1500 lets say vs the USD only buys 75% of what it used to and thus £1500 is in purchasing power terms only 1125, to get that purchasing power back they need to be paid £1900 or there abouts.

Thus cancelling out your advantage of cheaper labour...

*At which Honda says no , the staff down tools Honda closes its plant and moves to Turkey instead sacking all the workers, leading to even lower manufacturing.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 22:10 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

salty21 wrote:
why cant that mint place that makes our currency just make a shit load more and pass it about? sorted Thumbs Up

thats my good deed for the day Very Happy


Because it would cause serious inflation which would make the prices of everything go up even more even with a gold backed currency you can't just keep printing out more and more money as its value drops. See Zimbabwe...


If anything the Bank of England should collect money and BURN it... to take it out of the economy.
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MinhDinh
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PostPosted: 22:14 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
salty21 wrote:
why cant that mint place that makes our currency just make a shit load more and pass it about? sorted Thumbs Up

thats my good deed for the day Very Happy


Because it would cause serious inflation which would make the prices of everything go up even more even with a gold backed currency you can't just keep printing out more and more money as its value drops. See Zimbabwe...


If anything the Bank of England should collect money and BURN it... to take it out of the economy.


yeah. the central bank i.e. bank of england prints england money. england needs to pay them back and with interest but the only way they can is by borrowing more money which causes more debt. it's an on going spiral and thus the country is in debt. kinda fucked up
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salty21
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PostPosted: 22:50 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

damn, i thought i had just sorted it Sad
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 23:50 - 23 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Erm no , labour prices will if anything increase, as in a high inflation environment workers will demand higher pay* since they need to eat mostly imported food which has increased in cost and buy ancillary things such as petrol to get to work which has also increased in price since it is also imported (increasing).


No, that is the whole point of a falling currency. Reason people felt well off was because their pay had gone up by international comparisons due to the high value of the pound. Recession around so people expect to be worse off. Same labour costs in pounds, means a lower labour cost in other currencies (as we have basically returned down to a more traditional level rather than the hideous over value of Sterling).

Itchy wrote:
*At which Honda says no , the staff down tools Honda closes its plant and moves to Turkey instead sacking all the workers, leading to even lower manufacturing.


More likely they would mothball other plants in higher cost countries (ie, Euro based economies) and move production to the UK. Drop in value of the pound certainly will make the Nissan Sunderland plant far more competitive, having been shafted for the last few years by the high value of the pound.

Itchy wrote:
If anything the Bank of England should collect money and BURN it... to take it out of the economy.


Only if you want to really screw things up by putting the value of the pound through the roof.

All the best

Keith
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monty's double
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PostPosted: 16:09 - 25 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

no disrespect keith, but i think you are wrong on this one!

if having a falling currency is so good, then zimbabwe should be the weathiest country in the world, yes?

at the moment we have short term deflation in the economy, mainly
amongst things that require leverage e.g. debt to finance them.
therefore the price of these assets has been falling. hence the price of house, cars, yachts etc has been falling, generally speaking.

there is a charity in bucks which has had hundreds of people trying to dump their horses and ponies onto it, as the owners can't afford them.

the reason "people felt well off" was due to the availabilty of cheap credit and a housing bubble which encouraged them to consume. wages have been static/falling for many years. now, collectively personal debt at record levels.

itchy is right - trashing our currency has done us no favours - in fact the trade deficit announced last month was the worst since, wait for it, 1697!

https://tinyurl.com/729m6q

i'm afraid our problems are a direct result of the monetary system + banking system - since 1971 with the ending of the bretton woods currency system, money has been produced at will by governments. believe it or not, banks produce money out of thin air!

this video gives a precis of the hows and whys - don't be put off by the fact it is a cartoon.

https://tinyurl.com/cmtba4

me? i stuffed most of my (meagre) cash into gold https://www.goldmoney.com) & other hard assets and foreign currencies some time ago.

i'm afraid it is going to be a long hard road back to what we would consider to be a 'normal' economy. we need to export more, consume less and save more. the government are floundering and producing policies which are designed to reduce savings and encourage the consumption of what are mainly overseas goods!

it has taken us 20 years+ to dismantle much of our industry. it will take us longer than that to replace it.

i wouldn't be surprised if unemployment hits 4 million this time around.

perhaps we will never recover - look at countries like argentina who were the 3rd richest country in the world at the turn of the 20th century.

to return this ridiculously long post back to motorcycling, this bloke has jacked his prices up:-

"We are doing our best to hold Ural prices as low as possible, but there have been huge increases from the factory due the specification improvements and the cost of raw materials.
Our price is £8,995 including all taxes. There will be a factory price increase in February 2009. Depending on the Dollar to Euro to Sterling exchange rate this could mean that we will have to increase our price for a Dalesman Gear-Up to the same level as the European dealers.

https://www.f2motorcycles.ltd.uk/uraldalesmangearup.html

i think we are going to have massive price rises.

recession/depression/stagflation - take your pick.

Crying or Very sad
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Newbiker0507
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PostPosted: 16:30 - 25 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

Save your money and have patience then it won't affect you.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 16:33 - 25 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

monty's double wrote:
no disrespect keith, but i think you are wrong on this one!

if having a falling currency is so good, then zimbabwe should be the weathiest country in the world, yes?


Not really, as they have nobody doing anything that generates any exports (and have worked hard to stamp those out as well).

Problem we have is that wages and prices were at a level within reason when the pound was at its current level. It boomed for no great reason (ie £1 = $2.10), and that is part of what has caused us problems. We did nothing to make the currency worth that short of having a higher interest rate to give more of it away (and putting the interest rates high would just delay the problem while making it far worse when it hits.

monty's double wrote:
at the moment we have short term deflation in the economy, mainly
amongst things that require leverage e.g. debt to finance them.
therefore the price of these assets has been falling. hence the price of house, cars, yachts etc has been falling, generally speaking.

there is a charity in bucks which has had hundreds of people trying to dump their horses and ponies onto it, as the owners can't afford them.


Nice easy savings for those who over reached themselves. Basically cutting back on what they couldn't really afford in the first place.

monty's double wrote:
the reason "people felt well off" was due to the availabilty of cheap credit and a housing bubble which encouraged them to consume. wages have been static/falling for many years. now, collectively personal debt at record levels.


Agreed to a large extent. House prices were allowed to rise far too quickly, as the only tool considered to keep them in check was interest rates. Interest rates going higher would have made currency related issues worse, lower would have made consumer spending (and increase in debt) even worse.

monty's double wrote:
me? i stuffed most of my (meagre) cash into gold https://www.goldmoney.com) & other hard assets and foreign currencies some time ago.


Afraid I don't understand the wish to invest in gold. It is basically useless, so is just a gamble based on it being a good investment because it has always been a good investment. You can't eat it and you can make next to nothing useful from it.

monty's double wrote:
i'm afraid it is going to be a long hard road back to what we would consider to be a 'normal' economy. we need to export more, consume less and save more. the government are floundering and producing policies which are designed to reduce savings and encourage the consumption of what are mainly overseas goods!


Agree on both points, and why I do not see a lower exchange rate as being a long term issue. Makes imports less attractive and home produce more attractive (whether that is goods or just call centre services).

All the best

Keith
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 16:39 - 25 Jan 2009    Post subject: Reply with quote

Newbiker0507 wrote:
Save your money and have patience then it won't affect you.


except that your saved money loses 14% of its buying power per year,
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