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Deflation of the economy (shush, whisper it)

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Old Git Racing
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PostPosted: 22:14 - 11 Mar 2014    Post subject: Deflation of the economy (shush, whisper it) Reply with quote

I predict 2014 will be the year when they try to prevent deflation. After all who does inflation benefit? Shareholders, rich bastards etc. Whereas it would benefit 80% of the population.
Prices are coming down because your average geezer has no money to spend, it being eroded by made up taxes, hidden taxes, no real wage rises in the last 4 years (except for MP's, bankers), benefit cuts etc. The rise of Aldi and Farm Foods.
Hence the call for a living wage all of a sudden instead of a minimum wage. Interest rates will slowly creep up now (as indicated by Mark Carney) to control inflation, i.e. prevent deflation.
God forbid we should have less than 2% inflation, the rich bastards might have to start contributing.

OGR
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smegballs
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PostPosted: 23:34 - 11 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

With all this "living wage" stuff, what is to stop businesses just putting up their prices at point of sale. Like the story about everyone getting a million quid magicked into their bank overnight, the next morning you are buying a loaf of bread for 20 grand...

Also surely a rise in minimum wage will cause employers to be even more picky about who they employ. If the least I can pay someone is now 8 quid an hour, you can be damn sure that I'll be vetting everyone with a fine-tooth comb to get the maximum output possible for my £8/h.

I would expect the people right at the bottom, who the minimum wage is ostensibly to help, will lose out; as they are the most likely to have poor qualifications or a minor criminal charge etc etc. Why would you hire anyone with so much as a tiny blemish on their record, when there are hordes of people without such transgressions looking and competing for limited work.
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Pigeon
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PostPosted: 00:01 - 12 Mar 2014    Post subject: Re: Deflation of the economy (shush, whisper it) Reply with quote

Old Git Racing wrote:
I predict 2014 will be the year when they try to prevent deflation.

That's been the key priority since 2009, you're half a decade out.

Whereas it would benefit 80% of the population.
Nobody likes paying large % of their pay out if they don't have to.
But deflation isn't a bed of roses, eg 1932.
If prices fall today, why would companies invest and hire for tomorrow when its likely prices will have fallen further.


Interest rates will slowly creep up now (as indicated by Mark Carney) to control inflation, i.e. prevent deflation.
Rising interest rates increase the chance of deflation. People hoard cash because it earns, prices fall and people hold off buying even longer, why buy today when I can buy it even cheaper in a weeks time.

God forbid we should have less than 2% inflation, the rich bastards might have to start contributing.
The top 1% account for 30% of income tax receipts apparently.
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fatpies
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PostPosted: 00:36 - 12 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ha you have it backwards.

The central bank's job is to create inflation.

The government have absolutely no intention of controlling inflation. They cause it and profit from it.

Each £1 has a % debt attached to it, this is the banker cut, as every £ that exists doesn't belong to you, even if it is in your pocket. It belongs to the bank you're renting it.

Inflation is the rent you pay.

This is why luddite theory doesnt work, the lower cost of production is stolen by the bank.

So why would they prevent it?


Also cash never increases in purchasing power. It always decreases in purchasing power ALWAYS. This is part of the design of fiat inflationary money. Cash halves in purchasing power every 10 years. Currently cash halves in purchasing power every 7.5 years because of active inflation and money printing.

My 400g block of cheese used to be £3, it is now £4 and only 320grammes. This was a 2 year price difference.

The horse meat thing, it was an inflation story, price went up so they put in cheaper substitutes.

Ask your dad how much a pint of beer was in 1970, ask your grandad how much it was.

Consider how many of whatever you could buy for £1.

Around 2002 it was 64p a litre its now £1.28.

Can of coke was 35p now 85p
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 00:53 - 12 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

fatpies wrote:

Around 2002 it was 64p a litre its now £1.28.


Only if you were getting a stunningly good deal back then (was paying that about 6 years earlier)

fatpies wrote:
Can of coke was 35p now 85p


Only if you are getting really ripped off now.

All the best

Keith
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Pigeon
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PostPosted: 01:24 - 12 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

fatpies wrote:

The central bank's job is to create inflation.

The government have absolutely no intention of controlling inflation. They cause it and profit from it.


I vaguely remember reading around 2009 how the BoE changed it's pension plan to inflation linked. It's almost as if they knew that rates would be slammed for a long time and inflation would be consistently above 2%.
That one act was probably the only decent forward guidance they provided Smile
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slowlydoesit
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PostPosted: 08:03 - 12 Mar 2014    Post subject: Re: Deflation of the economy (shush, whisper it) Reply with quote

Old Git Racing wrote:
After all who does inflation benefit? Shareholders, rich bastards etc. Whereas it would benefit 80% of the population.

The classic beneficiaries of inflation are people who have certain types of debt, for example a fixed rate mortgage. Your wages rise with inflation over time and your debt declines in real terms. So your standard middle-class family may well benefit from inflation in that sense.

Conversely, well-off families with savings - perhaps lots of savings - in fixed-interest accounts or in bonds would be hurt by inflation because the interest income is not rising in line with prices. Truly wealthy families tend to have portfolios that are diversified into different asset classes that may respond differently to inflation, so it's hard to make generalisations about them.

I'm somewhat nonplussed by the OP's implied "us and them" mentality with regard to "shareholders". I know many ordinary people who own shares. Many retirees, for example. And you can go out and buy shares in any company you fancy for a few quid. Otherwise the largest shareholders of a listed company are often pension funds, set up to deliver pensions for, er, well, people like you and me. Who probably account for more than 80% of the population.

Incidentally, I lived and worked in a deflationary economy for a long time. I don't recommend it. The consequences for the poorer members of society were not positive.


Last edited by slowlydoesit on 09:44 - 12 Mar 2014; edited 1 time in total
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Souleh
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PostPosted: 09:20 - 12 Mar 2014    Post subject: Re: Deflation of the economy (shush, whisper it) Reply with quote

Old Git Racing wrote:
I predict 2014 will be the year when they try to prevent deflation. After all who does inflation benefit? Shareholders, rich bastards etc. Whereas it would benefit 80% of the population.


Why are shareholders a class of their own? Why don't you use your brain to understand how shares work and profit on the losses you make via this inflation? Not so complicated.... anyone can hold shares and guess what!! You can do it tax free. Mr. Green
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fatpies
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PostPosted: 09:28 - 12 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:


All the best

Keith



The trend is still of prices of most things going up.

While wages have stayed stagnant.

Just because you can borrow more money to make up the short fall does not mean things are staying the same.

Borrowed money attracts interest and has to be paid back.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 23:41 - 12 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

fatpies wrote:

The trend is still of prices of most things going up.

While wages have stayed stagnant.


While wages have gone up, the point was that you were exaggerating price rises.

All the best

Keith
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Tungtvann
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PostPosted: 23:53 - 12 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

So typical, I've been a saver for years now, loads of money doing fuck all. When I'm ready to buy a house in a year or so, interest rates will jump and I'll be doubly fucked because I have no savings and loads of debt.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 13:51 - 13 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

fatpies wrote:



Also cash never increases in purchasing power. It always decreases in purchasing power ALWAYS. This is part of the design of fiat inflationary money. Cash halves in purchasing power every 10 years. Currently cash halves in purchasing power every 7.5 years because of active inflation and money printing.


p


So any cash you have should aleays be invested somewhere you make at least 10% on?
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slowlydoesit
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PostPosted: 14:08 - 13 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boozehawk wrote:
fatpies wrote:

Also cash never increases in purchasing power. It always decreases in purchasing power ALWAYS. This is part of the design of fiat inflationary money. Cash halves in purchasing power every 10 years. Currently cash halves in purchasing power every 7.5 years because of active inflation and money printing.

So any cash you have should aleays be invested somewhere you make at least 10% on?

Which would be challenging wouldn't it... Cash's attraction varies depending on the position of the economy within the business cycle. There were not many assets classes as resilient and as flexible as cash from the middle of 2007 onward to early 2009, for example.
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 18:01 - 13 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

slowlydoesit wrote:

Which would be challenging wouldn't it... Cash's attraction varies depending on the position of the economy within the business cycle. There were not many assets classes as resilient and as flexible as cash from the middle of 2007 onward to early 2009, for example.


I reckon getting more than 10% is probably almost impossible for the ordinary saver.
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Mark_F
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PostPosted: 18:13 - 13 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deflation wouldn't benefit 80% of the population at all.

Prices can only go down so far before wages need to drop accordingly, or companies go bust.

Ok you can buy more for your money in the short term, but when your wages fall (or your job goes), that mortgage or credit card becomes nigh on impossible to pay off.

The people who would benefit the most are the "rich bastards" (who don't have all their wealth tied up in shares) who will be able to buy so much more with their vast wealth! When many houses get repossessed, flooding the market, who is it that has the cash ready to buy them all up cheap?

Normal folk with savings and no debts whatsoever (or a very small proportion left on their mortgage) may make some small gains, but will they feel secure enough to spend with their wages falling or disappearing altogether?

Do you really want deflation?
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smegballs
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PostPosted: 20:02 - 13 Mar 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark_F wrote:

The people who would benefit the most are the "rich bastards" (who don't have all their wealth tied up in shares) who will be able to buy so much more with their vast wealth! When many houses get repossessed, flooding the market, who is it that has the cash ready to buy them all up cheap?


Just a repeat of the old Great Depression stylee.

The people with money in the bank find they they can all of a sudden buy up whole streets of houses and business for pennies of the dollar.
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