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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Diggs
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PostPosted: 11:11 - 14 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:


Farage is buying a new suit as we speak. Thumbs Up


I heard that JC was seen flicking through the Sale rail at Greenwoods too...
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 14:02 - 14 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boris' deal isn't going to get through Parliament. They don't want a deal, good, bad or indifferent. They want to revoke A50; they just don't yet have the courage to do it.

I expect we will end up with yet another extension, so we can give the EU several billion more pounds for nothing and allow businesses to suffer with UncertaintyDueToBrexit a bit longer, cos as we know, the Remainers are all full of concern over British businesses Rolling Eyes

A general election will come. If Boris hasn't got us out by Oct 31st, The Brexit Party will take centre stage. Even the thickest people will eventually realise that until Brexit is done, other considerations will get nowhere.

There is talk of Boris being able to wriggle out of the Surrender Act, which supposedly forces him to send a letter to the EU to ask for an extension, by invoking an international Article on treaties, which says that if a legitimate signatory is coerced to sign, then that treaty is null and void. But the Surrender Act is not a treaty, so I don't see that going anywhere.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 14:33 - 14 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

They can't get Jews to bail them out for some reason.
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 17:10 - 14 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

My latest prediction: A deal of sorts s proposed but does not get voted through. As chickenstrip says, an extension is called for. Businesses crumble under yet more uncertainty and those that might have stayed will finally leave to base themselves in Mainland Europe.
I also suspect that Brexit will be cancelled following this next extension.

I always thought that we couldn't do deals with trade until we'd left anyway?

Farage could be Prime Minister if he plays his cards right.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 17:32 - 14 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sister Sledge wrote:
I always thought that we couldn't do deals with trade until we'd left anyway?

Why did you think that?
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 17:33 - 14 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just cannot see where we are going at the moment.

The politicians can't vote for May deal Mk 2 or 3 or whatever it is without making themselves to look like cvnts (mind you, that hasn't stopped them so far).

I agree with those that say they are going after a cancellation of article 50 but they need a patsy to take the fall for ignoring the will of the people. Rolling Eyes

I suppose Labour could do it and dump Corbyn afterwards so they can all point fingers at him and say 'It wasn't us' to their leave voters.

It's an utter shit storm.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 17:47 - 14 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
The politicians can't vote for May deal Mk 2 or 3 or whatever it is without making themselves to look like cvnts

Why not? It's "different" in the backstop mechanism, so we're told - although we and parliament don't know precisely how - and it would not take much to push it through.

Last time, only 10 Conservative Leavers plus the DUP voted (with labour and all the remainers) against; there is talk of extra labour support (19 Labour MPs sent a letter to Junker and Tusk urging them to “work night and day” to agree a Brexit deal and prevent a delay to Britain’s departure). Were the DUP onside, plus the 19 that sent the letter, it would pass.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 14:18 - 15 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it's going to end up in another delay, uncertainty which no one really wants.
Any proposed deal will be slapped by the EU, or voted down in Westminster because Labour, SNP, Limp Dems, and some Tories simply don't like Boris.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 14:26 - 15 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
Any proposed deal will be slapped by the EU, or voted down in Westminster because Labour, SNP, Limp Dems, and some Tories simply don't like Boris.

Well, the eu are actually renegotiating the "deal" with us at the momment, so let's hope they do negotiate something.

As for it being voted down in Westminster, the literal undemocrats, snp etc will vote against because they're "remain".

That leaves labour; a letter from some of their MPs to Brusels sent a few dsays ago was encouraging, so there might be more labour supporters this time than last.

Hardline "Brexiteers" (including Lee Rowley!) have indicated that they will support "Boris's deal". The DUP seem likely to vote for it.

All the Conservative leavers, including most who have had the whip withdrawn, will vote for it.

So, there is a chance it will successfully transit parliament, but it may be close.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 14:53 - 15 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

As for numbers there are a lot of Labour MPs who will back the deal. They know they will have to agree one at some point, and few of them want to tell their constituents "yeah well I blocked the deal because I wanted to remain even though my constituents voted leave and now we have no deal and its mostly my fault". Also don't underestimate how terrified many Labour MPs are privately about revoke or worse still a second referendum. A second vote would be like a preview of hell for a Northern Labour MP.

John Mann was asked about whether he will back the deal. He said he will back it, whatever Boris comes back with, regardless of what the deal says.

chickenstrip wrote:
Boris' deal isn't going to get through Parliament. They don't want a deal, good, bad or indifferent. They want to revoke A50; they just don't yet have the courage to do it.

I expect we will end up with yet another extension, so we can give the EU several billion more pounds for nothing and allow businesses to suffer with UncertaintyDueToBrexit a bit longer, cos as we know, the Remainers are all full of concern over British businesses Rolling Eyes

A general election will come. If Boris hasn't got us out by Oct 31st, The Brexit Party will take centre stage. Even the thickest people will eventually realise that until Brexit is done, other considerations will get nowhere.

There is talk of Boris being able to wriggle out of the Surrender Act, which supposedly forces him to send a letter to the EU to ask for an extension, by invoking an international Article on treaties, which says that if a legitimate signatory is coerced to sign, then that treaty is null and void. But the Surrender Act is not a treaty, so I don't see that going anywhere.


They may well refuse to grant an extension. Fundamentally things have changed since that referendum to the point that Britain is no longer capable of being a productive and stable member of the EU anymore, indeed it is actively and openly hostile aggressive and capable of being highly destructive. The only reason to keep Britain in the EU now is if you really hate the EU and want to punish the other EU countries and make them suffer and ultimately destroy the EU.

Sister Sledge wrote:
My latest prediction: A deal of sorts s proposed but does not get voted through. As chickenstrip says, an extension is called for. Businesses crumble under yet more uncertainty and those that might have stayed will finally leave to base themselves in Mainland Europe.
I also suspect that Brexit will be cancelled following this next extension.

I always thought that we couldn't do deals with trade until we'd left anyway?

Farage could be Prime Minister if he plays his cards right.


I agree, deal is the most likely outcome. You are correct with regard to trade, the EU says the withdrawal must take place before a trade agreement can be negotiated otherwise they will be negotiating with themselves in a sense. We can either leave with an agreement or without one of course but thats a different issue.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 15:09 - 15 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have a new deal to propose:

1. We don't pay the EU £40 billion for fcuk all.
2. We have a trade agreement where we benefit from trade with the EU, AND it benefits from trade with us.
3. fcuk Ireland. Sorry but how can such a little piece of territory with hardly anyone living in it cause so much problems?

Somehow I don't think the EU would agree to it Smile
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 15:26 - 15 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im-a-Ridah wrote:

They may well refuse to grant an extension. Fundamentally things have changed since that referendum to the point that Britain is no longer capable of being a productive and stable member of the EU anymore, indeed it is actively and openly hostile aggressive and capable of being highly destructive. The only reason to keep Britain in the EU now is if you really hate the EU and want to punish the other EU countries and make them suffer and ultimately destroy the EU.


Us leaving will wreck the EU's little project, and they know it. They are scared and desperate. And if France or whoever veto an extension, it will harm the EU project further - disunity! They can't win; for them it's a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't Smile
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doggone
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PostPosted: 16:34 - 15 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pound jumping up ($0.02 anyway) they think an agreement is in the bag.
Trouble is that's not the same as getting it through all the naysayers in parliament.
And even if there is a tentative deal most likely a further extension until January or even April will still be on the cards to work through practical details.

This should all have been underway a couple of years after the vote though, and things would be settled by now.
Delays are almost entirely due to every possible avenue being explored to somehow overturn the vote result.
The main of that has been attitudes to politicians being at an all time low.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 17:09 - 15 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
I have a new deal to propose:

1. We don't pay the EU £40 billion for fcuk all.
2. We have a trade agreement where we benefit from trade with the EU, AND it benefits from trade with us.
3. fcuk Ireland. Sorry but how can such a little piece of territory with hardly anyone living in it cause so much problems?

Somehow I don't think the EU would agree to it Smile


What you're describing is what we already have as a member. Pretty sure EU would agreed to it.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 18:58 - 15 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
bhinso wrote:
I have a new deal to propose:
1. We don't pay the EU £40 billion for fcuk all.

What you're describing is what we already have as a member. Pretty sure EU would agreed to it.

You don't half come out with some wank.
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Val
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PostPosted: 12:12 - 16 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Have we left yet? The world's smallest violin player, just for you!

Times today:
Quote:
"Boris Johnson hit by prospect of no Brexit until 2020"

Me: not if UK Parliament puts Johnson deal to new and fair referendum first.

Means there will be no Brexit. Not now. Not in 2020. Not ever.
Happy days Laughing Laughing Laughing

Or we can have an extension until 2120, gammons will be apoplectic, surely BCF leavers can see the fun in that:

https://i.imgur.com/6QjNFPm.gif
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Last edited by Val on 12:34 - 16 Oct 2019; edited 1 time in total
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Ste
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PostPosted: 12:25 - 16 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
Have we left yet? The world's smallest violin player, just for you!

Times today:
Quote:
"Boris Johnson hit by prospect of no Brexit until 2020"
- not if UK Parliament puts Johnson deal to new and fair referendum first.


The Times wrote:
Boris Johnson is fighting attempts by the EU to delay Brexit until next year as negotiators worked through the night to secure a deal.

Brussels raised hopes of a breakthrough before the European summit tomorrow, with officials scrambling to prepare a draft treaty text. Talks broke up 1.30am local time and resume again at 9am.

A source said that genuine progress had been made on a small number of “not insignificant” outstanding issues.

A deal is, the source was “feasible today but not in the bag”.

However, there were warnings, echoed in Berlin and Paris, that the technical details might take until January 1 to finalise.

Mr Johnson’s allies insisted that EU nations were split over the desirability of further delay. One said there was... [rest of the article is behind a paywall]


Val wrote:
Means there will be no Brexit. Not now. Not in 2020. Not ever.

It doesn't say that or imply that.

The Guardian is less doom and gloom... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/16/brexit-boris-johnson-races-the-clock-as-deadline-for-deal-looms-politics-live
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Val
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PostPosted: 12:35 - 16 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:


Val wrote:
Means there will be no Brexit. Not now. Not in 2020. Not ever.

It doesn't say that or imply that.

The Guardian is less doom and gloom... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/16/brexit-boris-johnson-races-the-clock-as-deadline-for-deal-looms-politics-live


This is my scientific analysis based on Times fact that there will be an extension. No way Johnson can have a majority without the "deal" put to a referendum...

Me: not if UK Parliament puts Johnson deal to new and fair referendum first. Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 15:52 - 16 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting poll very recently.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 16:16 - 16 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
Interesting poll very recently.


?
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doggone
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PostPosted: 16:20 - 16 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
Interesting poll very recently.


?

https://i0.wp.com/order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/poll-1.png?resize=540%2C308&ssl=1
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Shaft
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PostPosted: 16:31 - 16 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting Pole
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:09 - 16 Oct 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

doggone wrote:


It saddens me that there are still so many people willing to give up democracy so easily Sad
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