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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 08:27 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lupo wrote:
Reuters and gives a good approximation of how badly they are doing.
Quote:
“She is in a difficult situation, if she goes out there and there is nothing tangible on our side,” a senior EU official said, saying governments wanted to keep up momentum for a deal that would avoid legal chaos across Europe. “We’ll try to be neutral, maybe even offer an encouraging line to stay engaged.”


Condescending very much, that is how much the UK government is being outplayed in the negotiations,

Actually the article is more positive about UK pronouncements than your quote implies. If May "goes out there," and nothing tangible comes back it just demonstrates the intransigent nature of the EU. Maybe it's time to quit and start talking to the rest of the world.

On another matter, someone on here once pointed out that an EU army would be used to quell civil disorder by drawing on brigades from "outside," since local troops are likely not to be so keen to batter their own people. The recent scenes in Catalan brought this to mind.
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 09:20 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Long time, no opinions...

From what I could hear and read here, from the true UK-ers, there's no deal to be have. And also, your own gov has no idea what's going on. Just a curious question, when does the May's term end? I bet it's right before the 24months period is gone, so she can then point a finger at here succesor and laugh/shout with the others, what brexit should be like and that she did her best job, but the EU bullies wouldn't listen to here demands.

Is this far fetched, or pretty much the script to the new season of the tv series ''Yes, Minister''? Because so far, it does look like it.
Then you have Boris traveling the old land promising nothing will change in regards to the EU citizens in the UK. Isn't that against what you wanted? I mean all the border control talk.

Then there's the ''post-Brexit free trade pact''. Do you understand not, what this would mean?

About the EU being a knob here. Well, you get the news fed to you, by the British media, that even if it should not be the case, are politically biased. Just like we get the same news diluted, for some reason.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 10:12 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
If May "goes out there," and nothing tangible comes back it just demonstrates the intransigent nature of the EU.

More than has already been shown? And then what?


Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Maybe it's time to quit and start talking to the rest of the world.

The time to start doing that was the moment the referendum results came in, before declaring article 50.

Now, I don't believe that there's enough time to do so. Considering how slowly the wheels of bureaucracy grind, the chances of us having the infrastructure (property, plant and people) in place to agree and adminstrate trade deals with anyone by March 2019 seem slim.

The result is that we'll be begging and bribing the EU to extend our membership, which requires unanimous approval. I shudder to think what that will cost us.

They know it, and they know that we've done nothing to prepare for No Deal except to rattle an extremely flimsy sabre in a half-hearted fashion that's fooling nobody.

I'm not saying that we should panic, just that we should topple May, put an actual Brexiteer in charge, go full steam ahead for No Deal, then panic.
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 12:47 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
RhynoCZ wrote:
About the EU being a knob here. Well, you get the news fed to you, by the British media,


Wow. They do a pretty good job at changing the words which come out of Junkers mouth then. It looks very realistic to me.


So all this is just a decision of one man? Rolling Eyes
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Lupo
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PostPosted: 16:56 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brexit as people voted it, was always going to be a political suicide, Cameron saw it straight away and his swift departure confirms it.

The EU is not going to allow cherry picking of what parts of the EU you keep and what you discard. The EU is not being tough with the UK, it is being realistic, the EU has benefits for his members (some you may like, others not), but if you go out, you loose those benefits the good ones and the bad ones.

As Michel Barnier said: "Brexit is not a game" regarding the comments of "both sides saying the ball is in the other side’s court". The people of the UK voted that they will be better off outside the EU, so it is up to politicians to achieve that and make it a success. A success does not imply a "better deal with the EU", because it is not what people voted and it is not going to happen anyway.

All May woes will go away with a simple "fuck it, we are going to do our own thing". But no, because that will mean a challenge and looking for alternatives and solutions.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 17:55 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lupo wrote:
The EU is not going to allow cherry picking of what parts of the EU you keep and what you discard.

Is that because the likes of Turkey and Switzerland have already stripped the cherry tree bare of the best plums?


Lupo wrote:
The EU is not being tough with the UK, it is being realistic

In reality, there are many levels of membership in and association with the Fourth Reich.


Lupo wrote:
but if you go out, you loose those benefits the good ones and the bad ones.

Since we're the first to do it, I find your confident assertion of fact utterly baffling. Can I borrow your crystal ball to get next week's lottery numbers?


Lupo wrote:
As Michel Barnier said: "Brexit is not a game"

Then why is he playing silly buggers?
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Lupo
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PostPosted: 18:35 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course you can cherry pick, but that does not mean that the EU is going to accept your choices. Simply put, the UK negotiation team has been outplayed badly from the start. Yes, you can have "another level of membership" but is that what you voted for?

It is basic stuff, you go out of the EU you loose all benefits, and you need to renegotiate a new relationship. Be the first or the last does not make any difference.

Michel Barnier represents the whole of the EU countries, he cannot do anything the whole of the EU has not agreed to. Already his team has suggested to the EU members to start talks on the transitional term with the UK and it has been turn down by almost all countries in the EU.

What it is baffling is this fixation with having a deal with the EU, while the UK voted that it will be better off outside of the EU.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 19:16 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lupo wrote:
loose all benefits

If they love us, they'll come back.
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Lupo
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PostPosted: 20:17 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
If they love us, they'll come back.


Not if you are the clingy high maintenance type.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 20:32 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lupo wrote:
Of course you can cherry pick, but that does not mean that the EU is going to accept your choices. Simply put, the UK negotiation team has been outplayed badly from the start.

It was already a stitch up though. All EU countries signed up to Article 218 which rules that the first step in any departure "negotiations" is a divorce bill, and until that is done there can be no talks on trade. We are supposed to pay £50 billion with no strings attached first.
Lupo wrote:
What it is baffling is this fixation with having a deal with the EU,

Well, you said it;
Lupo wrote:
It is basic stuff, you go out of the EU... you need to renegotiate a new relationship.

What we voted for originally was a common market without all the subsequent politics, so why is it so puzzling that we want to talk trade.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 20:57 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Lupo wrote:
Of course you can cherry pick, but that does not mean that the EU is going to accept your choices. Simply put, the UK negotiation team has been outplayed badly from the start.

It was already a stitch up though. All EU countries signed up to Article 218 which rules that the first step in any departure "negotiations" is a divorce bill, and until that is done there can be no talks on trade. We are supposed to pay £50 billion with no strings attached first.
Lupo wrote:
What it is baffling is this fixation with having a deal with the EU,

Well, you said it;
Lupo wrote:
It is basic stuff, you go out of the EU... you need to renegotiate a new relationship.

What we voted for originally was a common market without all the subsequent politics, so why is it so puzzling that we want to talk trade.


Wasn't it the Major Gov that signed the Maastricht treaty - ever closer union?
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:11 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maastricht_Rebels
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Val
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PostPosted: 22:58 - 10 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brexit is like polishing a turd.

No matter what you do to it, it's still a turd.

No deal means you've just got a full bucket of shits.
Good luck polishing this Thumbs Up

That is true for both sides.

However there is slight difference when you'll need to drink the whole bucket alone or 1/27 part of it Laughing

Also UK bucket will be much bigger, in fact a lot more bigger than EU one.
Last time I've checked banks are moving from UK to EU not the other way.

Here is the short Cristmas Brexit version:

BoE: Banks will start leaving we don't get a Brexit transition deal by Christmas.
May: we are ready to leave without a deal.
EU27: thank you for all new jobs!

I also have pie chart diagram of the above:

https://i.imgur.com/sow6k4g.jpg
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Lupo
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PostPosted: 00:57 - 11 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
What we voted for originally was a common market without all the subsequent politics, so why is it so puzzling that we want to talk trade.


And then the UK voted to leave the EU. It is a divorce, no part is going to be easy on the other one. UK wants to talk only trade, the EU wants the money the UK allegedly has in commitments, present and future.

At the end of the day the people voted because they believe they will be better off outside the EU and it will make the UK great again. Trade deal or not trade deal with the EU should not make a difference, you are going to be better off.
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kippyzona
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PostPosted: 08:54 - 11 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

When you say "YOU" do you mean me?
I'm already worse off . Prices from my suppliers have risen and we have swallowed as many as possible.
My profits are well down. Once we can't trade freely there's a very good chance my business will go tits up.
I didn't vote for it,I don't want it but me and my staff will be paying for it.
A lot of out voters are used to being on the dole so they won't care.
I fucking do.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 09:24 - 11 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
All EU countries signed up to Article 218 which rules that the first step in any departure "negotiations" is a divorce bill

Can you quote the parts of Article 218 that (in reference to Article 207) deal with "departure" or "divorce bills".





Did you notice that there was no question mark after my "question".
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kippyzona
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PostPosted: 14:01 - 11 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most of the stuff comes from China but it's our belgian chocolates that will be the issue.
As I said we have absorbed most price increases but we just don't know how much they will go up once we can no longer freely trade with the mainland.
I doubt that the tariff on chocolate is top of our negotiators list when theyve got to worry about supplying our power stations.
My experience of politicians is give them a task and they will fuck it up , late and over budget. They are fucking useless .
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 14:19 - 11 Oct 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aaaand Remoaner Phil stabs Appeaser Theresa right between the shoulderblades by blabbing "Preparing for a No Deal? With what money?" Brick Wall

What did I say about bluffing with our cards showing?

The oily worm really does seem to think that he's in with a shout of replacing her when she's inevitably defenestrated.

I'm honestly not sure if May is genuinely as stupid and incompetent as she appears, or if she's deliberately scuppering Brexit by giving that appearance.
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