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Rob Fzs |
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
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Posted: 13:47 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Oh, incidentally, more news about the state of the UK economy compared to EUropia.
3x as many new businesses started in UKia last year than in France, Germany, Italy, Japan "despite Brexit". ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
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Itchy |
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Diggs |
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Diggs World Chat Champion
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Posted: 13:52 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Clearly not...
What chance did that particular comic (a piece of guesswork, fearmongering and kidology) have against brightly-coloured posters on the side of buses plus gents like Boris and Nigel, in whom millions placed their trust? Humans are simple creatures and history shows that we like to follow 'charismatic' leaders who promise a better way of life.
I'm not disputing that more people voted to leave than voted to stay, and that the Government has a mandate to ensure that takes place. What I do dispute however is the assertion made that voters knew the implications at the time. It is only now that the implications are being 'created' by the EU. If we find ourselves about to enter an era that is significantly worse that the status quo, then it is the responsibility of Parliament to consider our options. ____________________ Now - Speed Triple, old ratty GS550, GSXR750M
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Itchy |
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Rob Fzs |
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Rob Fzs World Chat Champion
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Posted: 13:55 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Itchy wrote: |
Um no don't take this the wrong way but...
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.HA.PC
Says there is 0.1 hectares of arable land per person in the UK
An old study here:
https://dieoff.org/page40.htm
States you need 1.2 acres of arable land per person on an American diet.
The UK currently has 0.247105 acres per person.
Doing some calculations on the back of an envelope an acre yields 25 tons so each person gets 6250 kilos of potatoes per year or 120 kilos per week or 17 kilos per day.
Except 25 kilos is ideal conditions. Reading a farming forum they range anywhere from 3tons to 14tons with an outlier of 27 tons. So at 50% of the 25 ton yield people get 8.5 kilos of potatoes each day.
So certainly doable but unless you're Matt Damon and have no choice that would be pretty miserable. |
The average debt per dairy cow on each farm is about 10k, yet people are still expanding, as long as they can cover the debt repayments, farmers will just plod on whilst the demand is still there. ____________________ '00 Aprilia RS50 > '92 Honda CG > '99 Yamaha Fazer > '91 Yamaha RXS > '79 Suzuki X5 > 01' Honda Cg > 07' Honda Cg > 82' Kawasaki Z200 > suzuki gsxr 400 gk73a > honda vfr 400 NC30> Yamaha RD350 YPVS F2 > Kawasaki ZZR 600 D1 > Yamaha TZR 250 2MA >Suzuki TL1000R > Yamaha TDR250 > Honda 929 blade > Suzuki SV1000 > Honda H100
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Diggs |
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Diggs World Chat Champion
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Posted: 14:01 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Itchy, I understand the maths. What this doesn't take into account however is ownership and distance from market. It also doesn't take into account rising flood contours and climate change. Nor does it take into account the inability of people to think ahead and to see growing one's own food as a more viable option than theft.
The only way we will have enough land to feed our population is if ownership passes to the State, and in this country that would be a strictly post-apocalypse scenario!!! Can you imagine the landowning classes giving anything to the State freely? ____________________ Now - Speed Triple, old ratty GS550, GSXR750M
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Rob Fzs |
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Rob Fzs World Chat Champion
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Posted: 14:04 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Itchy wrote: |
Rob Fzs wrote: | domestic producers will take up the slack and enjoy the benefit of a higher price and fill the gap, of which prices will eventually get set to a real cost of production level. |
This is only true in the most basic economic models. Add in a few variables and constraints and this is no longer the case.
Off my head as short as I can:
Capacity ~ Do farmers actually have the long term capacity to increase production.
Exports ~ Would farmers keep food in the UK? Through history during famines exports increase to get the best price.
Lead times ~ You can't just plant stuff at any time of the year. Thus there are significant lead times.
The big one is will farmers actually still be in business?
-Will the UK government replace the subsidies from CAP?
-If there are trade deals how will it affect UK farming as going concerns? The UK+EU wanted to split the quotas. NZ/AUS/Can and others wanted the EU to keep the quota and the UK to have it's own quotas.
I'm pretty sure farmers won't sit around and wait if they aren't viable.
Exactly the thing happened with nuclear power and various other engineering projects. The UK government expected the nuclear engineers to sit around on the dole for 25 years and then be ready to jump into action when they were needed. The UK government was most disappointed when those nuclear engineers went elsewhere or did something else. Even things like coal mining lots of them vanished off to Asia/Aus so the skills won't be there. |
The biggest farms just bank the subsidy for buying up more land, once the profitability is there, they will carry on regardless, the big just get bigger
Lead times of what? 6 months max, i doubt it will be an issue in the slow way these things come about.
Alot of the Quota's are never filled, nor is there an appetite to fill them, but it is 2 separate scenario's from he one Digg's came up with.
What else are farmers going to do? the vast majority of them only do it because it's the only thing they know, it's not something as sophisticated as Nuclear engineering, and if they do sell up, someone is always there to buy their land up, it's one of the reasons we decided to sell our Dairy herd, because the megalomaniacs that want to milk thousands of cows, now, wont let one bit of land go without a bidding war.
There is vast swathes of land that could easily come back in to cropable production, once it is economically viable, alot is set aside as it just pays better, if we were fucked for food and had a shortage tomorrow yes we would be in the shit, but it doesn't happen like that, for example, the Eu has thousands of tonnes of SMP in storage they cant get shut of,c that would take a while to work down and in that time, farmers would increase demand to match supply and the price of that what makes it profitable for them to produce the stuff. ____________________ '00 Aprilia RS50 > '92 Honda CG > '99 Yamaha Fazer > '91 Yamaha RXS > '79 Suzuki X5 > 01' Honda Cg > 07' Honda Cg > 82' Kawasaki Z200 > suzuki gsxr 400 gk73a > honda vfr 400 NC30> Yamaha RD350 YPVS F2 > Kawasaki ZZR 600 D1 > Yamaha TZR 250 2MA >Suzuki TL1000R > Yamaha TDR250 > Honda 929 blade > Suzuki SV1000 > Honda H100
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Last edited by Rob Fzs on 14:11 - 11 Dec 2017; edited 1 time in total |
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Diggs |
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Diggs World Chat Champion
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Posted: 14:19 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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I'm not an economist, but I can't see how the average person in this country if given even 0.1ha of land could grow enough food to feed themselves. Our grandfather's generation probably could have done if the land was close enough to people's houses, but we have lost those skills, and most arable land isn't.
To achieve it we would need collectivist farms with workers living in situ. That requires fundamental social reform, the like of which was tried and subsequently failed in Russia.
No, what will happen is change forced by rising transport costs, which will lead to a drastic reduction in population through starvation. Back to a subsistence economy for the majority of those who survive.
Like I say, membership or not of the EU will become an irrelevance. ____________________ Now - Speed Triple, old ratty GS550, GSXR750M
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
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Posted: 15:29 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Diggs |
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Posted: 15:53 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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MPD - yes, I probably do lead a sheltered life. I apologise to you for my lack of knowledge of urban dictionary terms. I have looked it up however, and that definition doesn't fit me.... Extremist Liberal and thinking I am unique, I am not. If you read what I have written you will understand my argument that my view is probably shared by most of the electorate... ____________________ Now - Speed Triple, old ratty GS550, GSXR750M
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panrider_uk World Chat Champion
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- Super Spammer
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Posted: 16:10 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Diggs wrote: | MPD - yes, I probably do lead a sheltered life. I apologise to you for my lack of knowledge of urban dictionary terms. I have looked it up however, and that definition doesn't fit me.... Extremist Liberal and thinking I am unique, I am not. If you read what I have written you will understand my argument that my view is probably shared by most of the electorate... |
You see Europe in 20 years becoming some kind of cross between The Goode Life and Mad Max. That's certainly unique.
You also seem to think that most of the electorate want a rerun of the referendum to get a second chance. Personally, I think most of electorate are sick to death with whining snowflakes trying to derail Brexit, including May and just want someone with the desire to do the job, to simply get the feck on with it.
In other news, Facebook is opening a new office in London with 800 staff. Finally, we might be able to get some tax out of them, now the "Double Irish" EU enabled fiddle is coming to an end.
We might even get Google moving across from Ireland too if we actually leave the single market before their tax fiddle ends. ____________________ TZR250 2MA road, TZR250 1KT road, TZR250 2MA race, TDR250, YZF-750R Boost colours.
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Diggs |
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Diggs World Chat Champion
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Posted: 16:38 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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MDP given that our (rapidly growing) population will have to adjust to reduced food imports and that we haven't the ability to grow enough of our own, how do you see the situation resolving itself? I am genuinely interested to hear your view.
You keep on using this term 'snowflake'. Why is somebody who's views are shared with almost half of the people who voted 'remain' and probably more than half the population at this present time, an extreme liberal who thinks of himself as 'unique'? Again, a reasoned answer would be interesting to read. ____________________ Now - Speed Triple, old ratty GS550, GSXR750M
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Posted: 16:46 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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Diggs wrote: | MDP given that our (rapidly growing) population will have to adjust to reduced food imports |
Why will there be reduced food imports? Supply and Demand.
Diggs wrote: | and that we haven't the ability to grow enough of our own, how do you see the situation resolving itself? I am genuinely interested to hear your view. |
Stop the EU pricing our farmers out of the market with subsidies to poorer EU countries, artificially distorting competition = Increased supply
Whilst we're at it, coming out of the EU and gaining some level of control over immigration may help the struggling housing, healthcare and education systems. Even if they got immigration down to a level where they dared to tell us the real figures instead of the IPS based bullsh1t we currently get, it would be a move in the right direction = decreased, or at least controlled demand.
Diggs wrote: | You keep on using this term 'snowflake'. Why is somebody who's views are shared with almost half of the people who voted 'remain' and probably more than half the population at this present time, an extreme liberal who thinks of himself as 'unique'? Again, a reasoned answer would be interesting to read. |
Because the other half, the ones who WON the referendum, not the special minority ones who expect to be obeyed, know exactly what sort of person we're dealing with when the tag of "Snowflake" is applied to those sort of people. ____________________ TZR250 2MA road, TZR250 1KT road, TZR250 2MA race, TDR250, YZF-750R Boost colours.
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Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg nimbA
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Posted: 16:54 - 11 Dec 2017 Post subject: |
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We'll use marginal land to grow hardier grains, like barley and oats.
Cows will need to give way to upland sheep farming.
We'll make more efficient use of their carcasses.
Haggis: the food of the future. ____________________ Biking is 1/20th as dangerous as horse riding.
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 6 years, 136 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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