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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:34 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
David Davis


https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200203/cmhansrd/vo021126/debtext/21126-17.htm


Quote:
Referendums should be held when the electorate are in the best possible position to make a judgment. They should be held when people can view all the arguments for and against and when those arguments have been rigorously tested. In short, referendums should be held when people know exactly what they are getting. So legislation should be debated by Members of Parliament on the Floor of the House, and then put to the electorate for the voters to judge.

We should not ask people to vote on a blank sheet of paper and tell them to trust us to fill in the details afterwards. For referendums to be fair and compatible with our parliamentary process, we need the electors to be as well informed as possible and to know exactly what they are voting for. Referendums need to be treated as an addition to the parliamentary process, not as a substitute for it.



However they voted. So it should be respected as should any and all of the consequences positive or negative.


https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/04/06/21/32E8B9D300000578-3526776-image-a-6_1459973152330.jpg

Did this booklet not do that very job?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:36 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
I agree with Borg to a degree, except that I don't think it will get to the point of us accepting his 'non-brexit'. I can't see the electorate wanting that as it is lose-lose. I think pulling up the physical and fiscal drawbridge would be the better option of the two but only in the long run, as the EU will become irrelevant and we will end up in this position regardless over time.

I honestly believe that we will have a general election before 'D-Day', and that we will vote to scrap the whole, silly mess. Calling that undemocratic is a tad childish...



You need a majority in parliament to get another election, which i doubt will happen in the next 5 years as the tories dont want to let Corbyn sell his populism again.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 13:47 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, incidentally, more news about the state of the UK economy compared to EUropia.

3x as many new businesses started in UKia last year than in France, Germany, Italy, Japan "despite Brexit". Clapping
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:51 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
The only reason we don't produce enough food here is simply because it's not worth our while, once imports get too expensive,



Your theory might come in to play in 100 years or so, but not anytime soon.[/quote]

Um no don't take this the wrong way but...

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.HA.PC

Says there is 0.1 hectares of arable land per person in the UK

An old study here:

https://dieoff.org/page40.htm

States you need 1.2 acres of arable land per person on an American diet.

The UK currently has 0.247105 acres per person.

Doing some calculations on the back of an envelope an acre yields 25 tons so each person gets 6250 kilos of potatoes per year or 120 kilos per week or 17 kilos per day.

Except 25 kilos is ideal conditions. Reading a farming forum they range anywhere from 3tons to 14tons with an outlier of 27 tons. So at 50% of the 25 ton yield people get 8.5 kilos of potatoes each day.

So certainly doable but unless you're Matt Damon and have no choice that would be pretty miserable.

Rob Fzs wrote:
domestic producers will take up the slack and enjoy the benefit of a higher price and fill the gap, of which prices will eventually get set to a real cost of production level.



This is only true in the most basic economic models. Add in a few variables and constraints and this is no longer the case.

Off my head as short as I can:

Capacity ~ Do farmers actually have the long term capacity to increase production.

Exports ~ Would farmers keep food in the UK? Through history during famines exports increase to get the best price.

Lead times ~ You can't just plant stuff at any time of the year. Thus there are significant lead times.


The big one is will farmers actually still be in business?

-Will the UK government replace the subsidies from CAP?
-If there are trade deals how will it affect UK farming as going concerns? The UK+EU wanted to split the quotas. NZ/AUS/Can and others wanted the EU to keep the quota and the UK to have it's own quotas.

I'm pretty sure farmers won't sit around and wait if they aren't viable.

Exactly the thing happened with nuclear power and various other engineering projects. The UK government expected the nuclear engineers to sit around on the dole for 25 years and then be ready to jump into action when they were needed. The UK government was most disappointed when those nuclear engineers went elsewhere or did something else. Even things like coal mining lots of them vanished off to Asia/Aus so the skills won't be there.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 13:52 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clearly not...

What chance did that particular comic (a piece of guesswork, fearmongering and kidology) have against brightly-coloured posters on the side of buses plus gents like Boris and Nigel, in whom millions placed their trust? Humans are simple creatures and history shows that we like to follow 'charismatic' leaders who promise a better way of life.

I'm not disputing that more people voted to leave than voted to stay, and that the Government has a mandate to ensure that takes place. What I do dispute however is the assertion made that voters knew the implications at the time. It is only now that the implications are being 'created' by the EU. If we find ourselves about to enter an era that is significantly worse that the status quo, then it is the responsibility of Parliament to consider our options.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:53 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:

However they voted. So it should be respected as should any and all of the consequences positive or negative.


Rob Fzs wrote:



Did this booklet not do that very job?

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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:55 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:


Um no don't take this the wrong way but...

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.HA.PC

Says there is 0.1 hectares of arable land per person in the UK

An old study here:

https://dieoff.org/page40.htm

States you need 1.2 acres of arable land per person on an American diet.

The UK currently has 0.247105 acres per person.

Doing some calculations on the back of an envelope an acre yields 25 tons so each person gets 6250 kilos of potatoes per year or 120 kilos per week or 17 kilos per day.

Except 25 kilos is ideal conditions. Reading a farming forum they range anywhere from 3tons to 14tons with an outlier of 27 tons. So at 50% of the 25 ton yield people get 8.5 kilos of potatoes each day.

So certainly doable but unless you're Matt Damon and have no choice that would be pretty miserable.


The average debt per dairy cow on each farm is about 10k, yet people are still expanding, as long as they can cover the debt repayments, farmers will just plod on whilst the demand is still there.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 14:00 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
The average debt per dairy cow on each farm is about 10k, yet people are still expanding, as long as they can cover the debt repayments, farmers will just plod on whilst the demand is still there.


Surprised
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 14:01 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy, I understand the maths. What this doesn't take into account however is ownership and distance from market. It also doesn't take into account rising flood contours and climate change. Nor does it take into account the inability of people to think ahead and to see growing one's own food as a more viable option than theft.

The only way we will have enough land to feed our population is if ownership passes to the State, and in this country that would be a strictly post-apocalypse scenario!!! Can you imagine the landowning classes giving anything to the State freely?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 14:04 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:


Rob Fzs wrote:
domestic producers will take up the slack and enjoy the benefit of a higher price and fill the gap, of which prices will eventually get set to a real cost of production level.



This is only true in the most basic economic models. Add in a few variables and constraints and this is no longer the case.

Off my head as short as I can:

Capacity ~ Do farmers actually have the long term capacity to increase production.

Exports ~ Would farmers keep food in the UK? Through history during famines exports increase to get the best price.

Lead times ~ You can't just plant stuff at any time of the year. Thus there are significant lead times.


The big one is will farmers actually still be in business?

-Will the UK government replace the subsidies from CAP?
-If there are trade deals how will it affect UK farming as going concerns? The UK+EU wanted to split the quotas. NZ/AUS/Can and others wanted the EU to keep the quota and the UK to have it's own quotas.

I'm pretty sure farmers won't sit around and wait if they aren't viable.

Exactly the thing happened with nuclear power and various other engineering projects. The UK government expected the nuclear engineers to sit around on the dole for 25 years and then be ready to jump into action when they were needed. The UK government was most disappointed when those nuclear engineers went elsewhere or did something else. Even things like coal mining lots of them vanished off to Asia/Aus so the skills won't be there.


The biggest farms just bank the subsidy for buying up more land, once the profitability is there, they will carry on regardless, the big just get bigger

Lead times of what? 6 months max, i doubt it will be an issue in the slow way these things come about.

Alot of the Quota's are never filled, nor is there an appetite to fill them, but it is 2 separate scenario's from he one Digg's came up with.

What else are farmers going to do? the vast majority of them only do it because it's the only thing they know, it's not something as sophisticated as Nuclear engineering, and if they do sell up, someone is always there to buy their land up, it's one of the reasons we decided to sell our Dairy herd, because the megalomaniacs that want to milk thousands of cows, now, wont let one bit of land go without a bidding war.

There is vast swathes of land that could easily come back in to cropable production, once it is economically viable, alot is set aside as it just pays better, if we were fucked for food and had a shortage tomorrow yes we would be in the shit, but it doesn't happen like that, for example, the Eu has thousands of tonnes of SMP in storage they cant get shut of,c that would take a while to work down and in that time, farmers would increase demand to match supply and the price of that what makes it profitable for them to produce the stuff.
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Last edited by Rob Fzs on 14:11 - 11 Dec 2017; edited 1 time in total
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 14:09 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
The average debt per dairy cow on each farm is about 10k, yet people are still expanding, as long as they can cover the debt repayments, farmers will just plod on whilst the demand is still there.


Surprised


'I will never farm debt free. It's what drives me, with no debt I would get complacent and let things slip, then go scat. Backwards way of looking at it maybe. But that's how I operate.
''
Direct quote off the farming forum, these people will expand even if they make nothing and there is plenty of them about
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 14:10 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
Itchy, I understand the maths. What this doesn't take into account however is ownership and distance from market. It also doesn't take into account rising flood contours and climate change. Nor does it take into account the inability of people to think ahead and to see growing one's own food as a more viable option than theft.

The only way we will have enough land to feed our population is if ownership passes to the State, and in this country that would be a strictly post-apocalypse scenario!!! Can you imagine the landowning classes giving anything to the State freely?


Like in Zimbabwe?

https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/mugabe-govt-to-repossess-farms-from-unproductive-land-reform-beneficiaries-20170626

lol
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 14:18 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
Like in Zimbabwe?



The thing is all the iffy stuff that is condemned today happened in England a couple hundred years ago with the various Inclosure acts the New Forests were pretty much land grabs too.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 14:19 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not an economist, but I can't see how the average person in this country if given even 0.1ha of land could grow enough food to feed themselves. Our grandfather's generation probably could have done if the land was close enough to people's houses, but we have lost those skills, and most arable land isn't.

To achieve it we would need collectivist farms with workers living in situ. That requires fundamental social reform, the like of which was tried and subsequently failed in Russia.

No, what will happen is change forced by rising transport costs, which will lead to a drastic reduction in population through starvation. Back to a subsistence economy for the majority of those who survive.

Like I say, membership or not of the EU will become an irrelevance.
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ScaredyCat
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PostPosted: 14:20 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:

The big one is will farmers actually still be in business?


Farms will be bought by mega corp ltd. Any small farm that doesn't sell up will become irrelevant pretty quickly, if they actually manage to hang on and don't go tits up. High density, rapidly produced, low quality is were it'd head.

Itchy wrote:

-Will the UK government replace the subsidies from CAP?


Why should they. We shouldn't be paying them subsidies at the moment, let alone when we need farms to produce more.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 15:11 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

ScaredyCat wrote:
Farms will be bought by mega corp ltd. Any small farm that doesn't sell up will become irrelevant pretty quickly, if they actually manage to hang on and don't go tits up. High density, rapidly produced, low quality is were it'd head.


This is a probable outcome.


ScaredyCat wrote:

Why should they. We shouldn't be paying them subsidies at the moment, let alone when we need farms to produce more.


Because some things are more important than profits.

Food security I would imagine is a pretty high priority. A lot of people mention sovereignty, food security is a pretty big part of this.

Hell you can look at the Norks.

Clinton - Stop making WMD or we'll put sanctions on you
Kim Il Sung - Go on make me.

Bush II - Stop making WMD or we'll put even more sanctions on you!
Kim Jong-il - Go on make me like Clinton did.

Obama - Stop launching missiles across Japan or we'll... er wait we've already got sanctions on you... we'll think of something
Kim Jong-jong - Come and make me.

Trump - Stop nuclear tests at once
Kim Jong-jong - nope, come and make me
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 15:29 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Because some things are more important than profits.

Police Police Police Obvious account hijack. Police Police Police
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 15:53 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

MPD - yes, I probably do lead a sheltered life. I apologise to you for my lack of knowledge of urban dictionary terms. I have looked it up however, and that definition doesn't fit me.... Extremist Liberal and thinking I am unique, I am not. If you read what I have written you will understand my argument that my view is probably shared by most of the electorate...
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 15:59 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:


Because some things are more important than profits.


The reason for voting leave for a lot of people.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 16:38 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

MDP given that our (rapidly growing) population will have to adjust to reduced food imports and that we haven't the ability to grow enough of our own, how do you see the situation resolving itself? I am genuinely interested to hear your view.

You keep on using this term 'snowflake'. Why is somebody who's views are shared with almost half of the people who voted 'remain' and probably more than half the population at this present time, an extreme liberal who thinks of himself as 'unique'? Again, a reasoned answer would be interesting to read.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 16:54 - 11 Dec 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

We'll use marginal land to grow hardier grains, like barley and oats.

Cows will need to give way to upland sheep farming.

We'll make more efficient use of their carcasses.

Haggis: the food of the future.
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