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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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M.C
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PostPosted: 19:41 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

So why are Apple products made in China? Why aren't they pieces of crap that fall apart like half of the stuff you get (from China)? Why does the US still have an automotive industry producing cheap cars?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 19:48 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
BrexEconomics 101: Imagine Triumph if we Brexit.

- Our currency drops (which is has done already)
- Triumph sells more motorcycles internationally because the currency is lower
- Triumph sells more motorcycles in the UK because the currency is lower and tariffs prevent foreign competition.
- Triumph wins. Britain wins. Britain is great again.

Easy, right?



Nope. Triumph manufacture their bikes in Thailand. They bolt them together in the UK and make a few in the UK.

You also forget about component costs.

If you devalue your currency.

Then the components unless you make them from raw materials dug out of the ground or have gigantic reserves all it does it push your costs up. If you trash your currency by 50% sure it makes your goods 50% cheaper but the parts and components to make them the price has also gone up 50% too.

Therefore this means that it only works if you make everything from scratch and or you add enormous amounts of value to the raw materials or components you receive from overseas.

gorillaonabike wrote:
But hold on a second, why is it that China or India with incredibly low costs, skilled workforces and great trade links aren't dominating the car industry? Why is the car industry, for example, dominated by countries with high costs, strong currencies and expensive workforces? Why is it that in the 'real world,' the opposite occurs?


A couple of things quotas and tariffs which made Nissan move their plant to the UK to dodge them.


Also internal demand. Demand causes industries to cater for this demand. This forms a domestic industry. The domestic industry if it can produce stuff excess to its own demand it can export these if they meet the standards nations demand and subject to tariffs and quotas.

The companies then think. Do I make something really expensive to meet those standards overseas and sell maybe 1000 of them? Or do I make something cheaper and sell 10,000,000 of them?
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kawakid
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PostPosted: 19:49 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

I still think there will be a 2nd vote of some sort.

Perhaps to agree or disagree to the terms of the exit.

Borred of it all now tbh.
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Val
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PostPosted: 22:23 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

I found a Brexit Christmas greetings card, it says the brightest and the best should have stayed in Nazareth:

https://i65.tinypic.com/16m3wxu.jpg
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 22:31 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

nowhere.elysium wrote:


I know that the EU has to negotiate with/answer to the WTO, but there's the bonus element to EU membership that a lot of people seem to forget - we (and every other EU state) effectively gets two votes on every WTO motion. There's still the aspect of unionisation that works well in trade (when operated cohesively) - having a voting bloc working together can achieve a lot.



How exactly? the Commission acts on our behalf, they have one vote and we have 1/28ths of that vote.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/european_communities_e.htm

The EU is a single customs union with a single trade policy and tariff. The European Commission — the EU’s executive arm — speaks for all EU member States at almost all WTO meetings.
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nowhere.elysium
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PostPosted: 22:59 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:

How exactly? the Commission acts on our behalf, they have one vote and we have 1/28ths of that vote.

OK, I may have received sketchy information on that one.

Anyway - I'm going to recuse myself from this thread at this point, purely because I'm not interested in arguing about this stuff - it's being treated as a done deal, and I have more pressing things in my life at the moment.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 11:32 - 11 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:


You also forget about component costs.

If you devalue your currency ... If you trash your currency by 50% sure it makes your goods 50% cheaper but the parts and components to make them the price has also gone up 50% too.

Therefore this means that it only works if you make everything from scratch and or you add enormous amounts of value to the raw materials or components you receive from overseas.

...

A couple of things quotas and tariffs which made Nissan move their plant to the UK to dodge them.

Also internal demand. Demand causes industries to cater for this demand. This forms a domestic industry. The domestic industry if it can produce stuff excess to its own demand it can export these if they meet the standards nations demand and subject to tariffs and quotas.


So... hold on a second. In the real world (not economic 'theory') is it possible that a higher currency creates the internal market conditions for a product which is then exported? And is this why poorer countries with lower relative currencies make cheaper, lower grade products?

And all this talk about currency devaluation being a good thing for a first world country is just 'theory' and completely untrue. Is this correct?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 12:58 - 11 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
So... hold on a second. In the real world (not economic 'theory') is it possible that a higher currency creates the internal market conditions for a product which is then exported? And is this why poorer countries with lower relative currencies make cheaper, lower grade products?


Ever seen the film disclosure? It's a bit like that when they're discussing the chip plant.

You can make low quality stuff anywhere you want where there are people. Human hands/eyes have limitations to their precision. Therefore low quality and simple things can be made by hand and relatively simple tools require little capital. For instance you're not going to be making CPUs by hand are you?

You can make high quality stuff anywhere you want too. However high quality stuff requires precision machinery and to spend a lot of capital on this machinery.

Between these two extremes there is the middle category with simple bits and complex bits.

Therefore wages are a lot less important for higher quality stuff. Yonks ago there was a story about a BMW plant in Munich. 15000 people applied for jobs there. There were considerably less jobs produced than the government anticipated as the BMW plant used loads of robots.

What may affect the location of choice for making things is how friendly the government is to the companies. Also the infrastructure and supply chains. It's all well and good having a super high tech factory in the middle of the Sahara land will be cheap but there are no workers and all components and raw materials has to be shipped in long distances. You can see this with Nissan they have component manufacturers nearby.


This is what hit Port Talbot badly vs say Tata's Rotterdam plant. The longer supply chains the port not being owned by them pushed up costs.


This is what allows special economic zones in the PRC to dominate in manufacturing in many areas. They have areas the size of Wales where the supply chains are tight and close and they are also close to container ports. It's almost surreal sometimes. You visit a town and its dedicated to making pipes. Another town cables another town plastic injection.


gorillaonabike wrote:
And all this talk about currency devaluation being a good thing for a first world country is just 'theory' and completely untrue. Is this correct?



It depends, currency devaluation = good for exports is too simple.

The biggest thing is how much value you add to the raw materials. The V and A in VAT. If enormous amounts of value are added to the raw materials then currency devaluation is a positive thing. This also applies to stuff only you know how to make like Silk in ancient times.

If you add tiny amounts of value and make money by small margins on quantity. Your increased costs will generally wipe out any benefit from greater sales. Unless you also make the raw materials as well.



There is also lag. Whereby companies(or even countries) will have stock piles of materials or components and will be using these before replacing them. They will benefit from a devalued currency that is until they come to replace their inventories of components and materials.
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 14:26 - 11 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
So why are Apple products made in China? Why aren't they pieces of crap that fall apart like half of the stuff you get (from China)? Why does the US still have an automotive industry producing cheap cars?


Made in China stuff: It does not matter where their products are being made, what matters is who does the control of the build quality. With China it's simple, you get what you pay for.

'merica making cheap cars: Their cars are outdated, of poor build quality. Even the premium cars from the US of A are somehow cheap, in many aspects. For instance, I've seen the Tesla sedan car, and the stitching of the leather seats was laughable. I know you might say, that it does not matter, but it sure does when you can buy a very affordable VW concern car for far less money, with far better build quality. I know electric cars are more expensive, etc. etc., but when you buy a such expensive vehicle, you expect a certain degree of build quality.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 17:03 - 11 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

RhynoCZ wrote:
M.C wrote:
So why are Apple products made in China? Why aren't they pieces of crap that fall apart like half of the stuff you get (from China)? Why does the US still have an automotive industry producing cheap cars?


Made in China stuff: It does not matter where their products are being made, what matters is who does the control of the build quality. With China it's simple, you get what you pay for.

'merica making cheap cars: Their cars are outdated, of poor build quality. Even the premium cars from the US of A are somehow cheap, in many aspects. For instance, I've seen the Tesla sedan car, and the stitching of the leather seats was laughable. I know you might say, that it does not matter, but it sure does when you can buy a very affordable VW concern car for far less money, with far better build quality. I know electric cars are more expensive, etc. etc., but when you buy a such expensive vehicle, you expect a certain degree of build quality.

That was my point. Quality items can be made in China. American cars are basic and use poor quality materials, but you can buy a V8 pickup for 20k, over here that gets you an Astra diesel which's also made of plastic (just of a slightly higher quality Wink).
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RhynoCZ
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PostPosted: 18:15 - 11 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, sorry M.C, I completely missed the bottom end of the first page. Embarassed
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 08:27 - 12 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

RhynoCZ wrote:

Made in China stuff: It does not matter where their products are being made, what matters is who does the control of the build quality. With China it's simple, you get what you pay for.


So let's look at the phone industry. Why is it that a country with a 'cheap' currency (China) is only producing quality products when a country with a very strong currency is controlling production?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 09:26 - 12 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
RhynoCZ wrote:

Made in China stuff: It does not matter where their products are being made, what matters is who does the control of the build quality. With China it's simple, you get what you pay for.


So let's look at the phone industry. Why is it that a country with a 'cheap' currency (China) is only producing quality products when a country with a very strong currency is controlling production?



urmm because they own the brand?

You can buy plenty of cheap knockoff iphones direct from china, no doubt its the same piece of equipment but people mostly buy on branding.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 01:02 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
urmm because they own the brand?

You can buy plenty of cheap knockoff iphones direct from china, no doubt its the same piece of equipment but people mostly buy on branding.


Let's try it another way... How is it that countries with strong currencies dominate high end phone production? Why isn't China or India not simply blowing them out of the water as they have an incredibly 'cheap' currency which should give them a massive cost advantage? After all, iPhones are being manufactured in China, so why can't the Chinese simply produce an equivalent item, themselves?

And why is an identical situation found in the car industry?

The Brexit economic theory is that a lower currency should create manufacturing opportunities for the UK. Why is it that out in the real world, with 'real world' economic practice, the opposite occurs?
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M.C
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PostPosted: 01:31 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
urmm because they own the brand?

You can buy plenty of cheap knockoff iphones direct from china, no doubt its the same piece of equipment but people mostly buy on branding.


Let's try it another way... How is it that countries with strong currencies dominate high end phone production? Why isn't China or India not simply blowing them out of the water as they have an incredibly 'cheap' currency which should give them a massive cost advantage? After all, iPhones are being manufactured in China, so why can't the Chinese simply produce an equivalent item, themselves?

And why is an identical situation found in the car industry?

The Brexit economic theory is that a lower currency should create manufacturing opportunities for the UK. Why is it that out in the real world, with 'real world' economic practice, the opposite occurs?

One plus? HTC?
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 01:47 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think anyone will have to worry too much about what does or doesn't happen concerning Brexit, at the rate the US president elect is winding up the Chinese we'll be staring at the wrong side of WWIII by March!
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 09:40 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
urmm because they own the brand?

You can buy plenty of cheap knockoff iphones direct from china, no doubt its the same piece of equipment but people mostly buy on branding.


Let's try it another way... How is it that countries with strong currencies dominate high end phone production? Why isn't China or India not simply blowing them out of the water as they have an incredibly 'cheap' currency which should give them a massive cost advantage? After all, iPhones are being manufactured in China, so why can't the Chinese simply produce an equivalent item, themselves?

And why is an identical situation found in the car industry?

The Brexit economic theory is that a lower currency should create manufacturing opportunities for the UK. Why is it that out in the real world, with 'real world' economic practice, the opposite occurs?


They are doing, plenty of Chnese brands about, doesn't mean shit if people want the Iphone branding, that is the beauty of added value production, someone can produce something exactly the same and as cheaply as they like, if it's not got the street cred people don't want it

You're mixing up commodities with added value products.
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PostPosted: 11:24 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

mentalboy wrote:
I don't think anyone will have to worry too much about what does or doesn't happen concerning Brexit, at the rate the US president elect is winding up the Chinese we'll be staring at the wrong side of WWIII by March!

Honest question, do you actually believe this?

Who's going to kick it off? China-China-China, run by a bunch of rational engineers, or Trump, with a consistent track record of positioning well and negotiating hard but never irrationally?

The latest data point on that: up to election day, he was telling Clinton II that she was going to jail. The instant he won, that idea went out the window, as it always does when he closes a deal. He's spent half his time since then meeting with his opponents, including even ecoloons. They've all come out smiling and praising him.

He's not at all vindictive, unhinged or unreasonable. Any appearance to the contrary is a bargaining tactic. Trump is a persuasive face-to-face deal maker, in a way that leverage-obsessed Clinton II would never have understood.
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 12:08 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
mentalboy wrote:
I don't think anyone will have to worry too much about what does or doesn't happen concerning Brexit, at the rate the US president elect is winding up the Chinese we'll be staring at the wrong side of WWIII by March!


Honest question, do you actually believe this?


Honestly, no.
If the Chinese wanted to up the ante they've only got to start playing silly beggars with their imports. It'd be like cutting off their nose to spite their face though, something the Americans might do but I don't think the Chinese are that stupid.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 12:30 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

mentalboy wrote:
something the Americans might do

Who?
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M.C
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PostPosted: 16:49 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:

The latest data point on that: up to election day, he was telling Clinton II that she was going to jail. The instant he won, that idea went out the window, as it always does when he closes a deal. He's spent half his time since then meeting with his opponents, including even ecoloons. They've all come out smiling and praising him.

He's not at all vindictive, unhinged or unreasonable. Any appearance to the contrary is a bargaining tactic. Trump is a persuasive face-to-face deal maker, in a way that leverage-obsessed Clinton II would never have understood.

But all those nasty things he said he was going to do, and the media got upset about, he now doesn't look like doing and that's making the media upset. Surely the only way to make them happy's to follow through, right? Thinking

mpd72 wrote:

Applying this to Brexit, rather than worrying about the UK, remember that in a buyer's market, we're net buyers to 22 of the 27 other EU countries. We hold the buying power, we're the majority customer not vendor.

Gorillaonabike economics aside, it does indeed put us in a position of power, although no one seems to have realised that yet. I also wonder if there are people who want a bad deal, just to gain some sort of butthurt satisfaction.
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