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panrider_uk
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| Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg
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 Posted: 15:29 - 02 May 2018  Post subject: |
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https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/cognitive-flexibility-associated-with-voting-attitudes-in-eu-referendum-study-finds
Can you spot the word "racist" in there? I know you're only a foreigner and can't be expected to meet British standards of veracity, but you can try.
I do like the part about those who showed 'cognitive flexibility' voted for no change, while us hidebound troglodytes voted for a leap into the unknown.
Also, if I like authoritarianism, why on earth would I want to be free of the many diktats and increasingly naked dictatorship of Brussels? 
tl;dr version - study by Zonny Forezner that set out to determine how nationalist Brexiteers were determined that Brexiteers are nationalists.
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| Itchy |
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Itchy
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| asta1 |
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asta1
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Posted: 17:10 - 02 May 2018  Post subject: |
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| Itchy wrote: | | panrider_uk wrote: | "The team sampled 332 UK citizens"
Well you can't argue with conclusions drawn from such a large sample can you? |
Figures of about 1000 are enough to be applied to the entire UK population with a small margin of error.
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Interesting, if true.
Based on what I've been taught in my degree and my limited experience in Pharma, I've always worked on the Sqrt(N)+ 1 principle for statistical validity of representative samples.
Using this method, a representative sample size for a population of 60M would be 7747.
1000 would only be representative if the population was smaller than 1 million.
Of course, the population they're exploring isn't 60M, it's only Brexit voters, so it's only a population of 17,410,742. A representative population should, based on this method, include 4,174 people.
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| Itchy |
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Itchy
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| Ste |
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Ste
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Posted: 18:27 - 02 May 2018  Post subject: |
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There fifty-something million adults in the UK so 1,000 people is a sample size of less than 0.002%
That's the equivalent of surveying 0.68462 users on BCF and saying that it's representative of the whole forum.
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| asta1 |
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asta1
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| Posted: 18:49 - 02 May 2018 Post subject: |
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| Ste wrote: | There fifty-something million adults in the UK so 1,000 people is a sample size of less than 0.002%
That's the equivalent of surveying 0.68462 users on BCF and saying that it's representative of the whole forum.
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Doesn't quite work like that. The rule that I've been taught, at least is
Square Root of the population plus 1.
So applying it to BCF's 34,231 active members gives a representative sample size of 186.
The representative samples size increases in line with the square root of the population size, not linearly, so as pure percentage points, the samples size relative to total population gets smaller and smaller as the size of the group increases.
I used to know the reasoning behind this, something to do with confidence intervals and homogenity of larger populations, but I've forgotten.
End result though, is that for a very large population you need a really tiny %age of the population to be representative. For example, for a representative sample of the entire population of the Earth, 7 billion ish, you only need a sample of 83,667, or 0.001% of the total to be representative.
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Ste
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asta1
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| Val |
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Val
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| Kawasaki Jimbo |
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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Posted: 20:40 - 02 May 2018  Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Britain’s Brexit vote came as a huge shock to most people, |
A presumption that the supposedly right-thinking but minority Remainers are 'people' while most voters (52%) are sub-people so they needn't count.
| Quote: | study of Brexit voters, authored by PhD student Leor Zmigrod |
Good old Surveymonkey, eh!
| The student wrote: | In today’s politically-polarised climate, it is important to understand more about the psychological processes behind nationalistic and social attitudes if we are to build bridges between communities. |
Yes, how can we fix their minds so they accept their fate?
| Quote: | Brexit voters were found to have greater conservatism, |
Can a vote for change be called conservative?
All just a means to claim all Brexit voters are an underclass and should be ignored. Tired of this shit. |
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| Rob Fzs |
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Rob Fzs
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| Posted: 21:01 - 02 May 2018 Post subject: |
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| Kawasaki Jimbo wrote: |
| Quote: | Britain’s Brexit vote came as a huge shock to most people, |
A presumption that the supposedly right-thinking but minority Remainers are 'people' while most voters (52%) are sub-people so they needn't count.
| Quote: | study of Brexit voters, authored by PhD student Leor Zmigrod |
Good old Surveymonkey, eh!
| The student wrote: | In today’s politically-polarised climate, it is important to understand more about the psychological processes behind nationalistic and social attitudes if we are to build bridges between communities. |
Yes, how can we fix their minds so they accept their fate?
| Quote: | Brexit voters were found to have greater conservatism, |
Can a vote for change be called conservative?
All just a means to claim all Brexit voters are an underclass and should be ignored. Tired of this shit. |
Socially conservative won over socially liberal.
Also Val is a dicksmoker that has no answers on how to win over brexit voters
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| ThoughtContro... |
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ThoughtContro...
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| Val |
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Val
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| asta1 |
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asta1
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Posted: 22:45 - 02 May 2018  Post subject: |
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| Val wrote: |
They have done the survey for voted population of 17m leavers only and with confidence level of 95% the margin of error 5.38% is fine for 332 sample. |
No, those are the confidence intervals for their conclusions within the representative population. They have no bearing on the nature of the sample population chosen upon the wider population as a whole.
They can conclude with confidence that for the 332 people, their conclusions are both reliable and accurate (and as far as I can see, they are, the methodology seems sound for the model and the SD and r values are solid).
Where they (or actually IFLS and Indy100) fall down is when they say "Here's the conclusions within our sample group, therefore these apply to the population".
Well, maybe they do, maybe they don't. With a population of 332, there's a decent chance that they are right, but that population size is much too small to draw conclusions for a total population of 17M.
For have an acceptable confidence interval of a truly representative subset of a population of 17M, you'd need a sample size of at least 4,125 people. They've got less than a tenth of that.
With what they've got, they can draw conclusions on the group and then say 'based on this sample, the results suggest x or y about Brexiteers', but to say, based on their sample size, 'that because x is x within the sample, x is x within all Brexiteers', is bad stats and poor science.
You'll notice, if you read the discussion and results of the actual published PNAS paper as opposed to the IFLS summary, that they are very careful to say that all their conclusions are only indicators for the population that went into the construction of their model, and do not at any point state that they can be applied to the overall population.
That said, it's interesting, well-written science. I'm quite impressed with Dr. Zmigrod and his experimental design, and that's a rare thing for someone doing soft sciences. Shame that the popular news outlet then used that to draw spurious conclusions.
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Itchy
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| Posted: 23:10 - 02 May 2018 Post subject: |
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So it's all cool yeah.
There are 332 days till BREXIT and there have been massive preparations in order to facilitate the exit right?
Those lorry parks in Kent have been built.
The border in NI/IRE has been built with non existent tech.
And all of the port facilities have been upgraded.
UK banks have also been allowed full pass porting and full rights to trade services with Europe.
192 trade agreements have been signed.
The EU/US open skies agreements have been signed and replaced with a UK version.
Right?
As a side note the negotiations between the PRC and UK for HK started in 1981 and took till 1985. The preparation for it took 11.5 years to complete. This is in a territory only twice the size of the Isle of Wight with 8% of the population. Building a simple house took me 2.5 years.
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| Kawasaki Jimbo |
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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| asta1 |
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asta1
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| Posted: 23:36 - 02 May 2018 Post subject: |
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| Kawasaki Jimbo wrote: | | asta wrote: | End result though, is that for a very large population you need a really tiny %age of the population to be representative. For example, for a representative sample of the entire population of the Earth, 7 billion ish, you only need a sample of 83,667, or 0.001% of the total to be representative. |
The more difficult problem is to "select" 83,667 individuals (population of the Isle of Man) in an unbiased manner.
| asta1 wrote: | I'm quite impressed with Dr. Zmigrod and his experimental design. |
He is a she.
https://theconversation.com/profiles/leor-zmigrod-461550
The paper has a footnote, "The authors declare no conflict of interest." |
Firstly, oops. The fucking Patriarchy strikes once again...
Secondly, agreed. Very difficult to randomly select anyone, especially that many.
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| Val |
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Val
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| Posted: 00:13 - 03 May 2018 Post subject: |
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This week in EU:
Ratification started on trade deals with Japan & Singapore.
Trade deal agreed with Mexico.
Approved a strengthened framework to tackle unfair competition in trade.
Tackles low-paid work.
2021-2027 EU 27 budget planned
This week in UK:
Tories deporting British people to countries they’ve never lived in.
Corbyn still supports the government, endorsed by BNP and gets 6500 bots from Putin.
Theresa May fails to push through the Parliament 2 EU custom proposals that already have been rejected by EU.
Tory MP with ruptured anus during tradional tory power stance routine
https://www.southendnewsnetwork.net/news/tory-mp-james-duddridge-rushed-to-hospital-with-ruptured-anus-after-power-stance-goes-wrong/
I can't wait for the next week 
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| Posted: 09:04 - 03 May 2018 Post subject: |
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| Val wrote: | This week in EU:
Ratification started on trade deals with Japan & Singapore.
Trade deal agreed with Mexico.
Approved a strengthened framework to tackle unfair competition in trade.
Tackles low-paid work.
2021-2027 EU 27 budget planned
This week in UK:
Tories deporting British people to countries they’ve never lived in.
Corbyn still supports the government, endorsed by BNP and gets 6500 bots from Putin.
Theresa May fails to push through the Parliament 2 EU custom proposals that already have been rejected by EU.
Tory MP with ruptured anus during tradional tory power stance routine
https://www.southendnewsnetwork.net/news/tory-mp-james-duddridge-rushed-to-hospital-with-ruptured-anus-after-power-stance-goes-wrong/
I can't wait for the next week |
The EU's trade deals are laughable, have none of the worlds top economies involved and you're too thick to realise the Southennewsnetwork is a spoof site.
Next.
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| Rogerborg |
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Rogerborg
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| Posted: 10:33 - 03 May 2018 Post subject: |
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| Val wrote: | Seriously 332 sample is fine. |
Seriously, it's not, a 5+ confidence interval is junk even by pollstermaths
And at that size, selection methodology becomes critical. I'd be fascinated to know what their sample set was. Sight unseen, I'd guess it was been-nowhere, done-nothing Cambridge undergraduates under 21 rather than the general public, and the vast majority of that 332 were Marxist Remoaners. You're welcome to guess otherwise.
Perhaps it was the population of a small Wakandan village. By pollstermaths, you can extrapolate from any 332 people to a population of 17 million, 70 million, or all 7 billion inhabitants of the planet, with exactly the same fantasy CI.
Anyway, back on topic, we're entering the end game of Brexit betrayal. Even the EU is (correctly, for one) calling Treasona's latest customs delusions "magical thinking".
As Itchy notes, it's far, far too late to begin preparing for anything other than business as usual. We have no option on the table except to continue as a vassal state, at any cost.
This is deliberate, not accidental.
If 48 Tory MPs don't give her a Caesar send-off in the next few weeks - and I don't believe that they have the numbers or they'd have done it long since - it's game over for Brexit and democracy.
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| Rob Fzs |
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Rob Fzs
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Rogerborg
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| Posted: 12:56 - 03 May 2018 Post subject: |
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Oh, for sure, we'll end up with some sort of Kiddie Table version of vassalhood. At the moment it's looking like the worst of all worlds: losing even the token pretence to having a say; paying a massive lump sum (because why?) on top of everything we were already paying; continue to pay everything that we were already paying; continuing to comply with every deranged diktat; leaving our borders wide open to every Elbonian grifter; and having no ability to trade on our own.
Still, we had a laugh, didn't we. 
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Rob Fzs
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Old Thread Alert!
The last post was made 5 years, 361 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful? |
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