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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 17:41 - 04 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
Especially with Single Window on the horizon.




Single Window won't be extended to France until 2020. Even then it is an EU to EU system. UK once outside isn't the EU any more.

Oh and this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/914456504425738240

Of course Dover port authority know NOTHING about Dover and they're all Remoaners right?

HMRC estimate they will need between 3,000-5,000 extra officers and that it will take between 3 and 5 years to implement the changes.

There are 329 days. It's also a government system meaning it will likely be delayed considerably.


But that wasnt what i was on about, was it? i stumped you with the customs union and now you're conflating no deal brexit with the EEA/ EFTA route.

i've not heard of 2020 for Single window to be implemented so that sounds like wishful thinking, even then, we'll be in a no change transition, if we're to continue the current gov pathway.

Surprised you're not yacking on about VAT yet.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 17:58 - 04 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rob Fzs wrote:
Here is the slide the EU did to show what the customs union covers, sweet FA, nothing that cant be dealt with , with addons/ trade facilitation, can it?




Ah the Donald Trump / Mpd argument. It'll be EASY!!!!

So if it were so easy then why hasn't it already been done and implemented? Perhaps the difficulty is under-estimated? Look at your own slide one part says inspections. So those will happen by MAGIC right?


Rob Fzs wrote:
no deal brexit with the EEA/ EFTA route.



You appear to think this is still an option it isn't.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 19:53 - 04 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
That's IF you think the EU are benevolent, considering they starved Greek pensioners what makes you think they're benevolent?

What? The 50,000 robber barons that constitute the EU are vile, grasping, spiteful creatures who would stop at nothing to preserve the Thousand Year Bureaucracy.

However, what the ones making the decisions like most of all is their swill, and unlike Greece (Hungary, Poland et al) we provide plenty of it. They'll beat us for attempting to escape, but they won't let anything serious happen to our taxpayers.


Itchy wrote:
It's in the EU's interest to go hard. Let it go real bad food riots bad then to offer an awful deal that the UK government can't refuse say increasing the UK contribution by 500% no rebate, Schengen and Euro currency.

We're actually agreeing on what they would do. My point is that with Appeaser Theresa clinging to the curtains in Number 10 like a hissing cat, it won't get that far. She'll collaborate fully in order pre-emptively abase ourselves and surrender unconditionally.

My Bitcoin is on an emergency re-accession in the small hours of the morning on March 30, with some sort of probationary status until we adopt the Euro.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 21:07 - 04 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:
We're actually agreeing on what they would do. My point is that with Appeaser Theresa clinging to the curtains in Number 10 like a hissing cat, it won't get that far. She'll collaborate fully in order pre-emptively abase ourselves and surrender unconditionally.


This depends on her still being in power (poll today 25% of her party want her gone).

She also declared NO election in 2018 too. Rees Mogg also said he doesn't want the turd filled chalice.

It also depends on them accepting the surrender. They could just drag their heels a bit before accepting it allowing all those stabby types to whet their shivs a bit.

Rogerborg wrote:
but they won't let anything serious happen to our taxpayers.


Tax payers? The UK doesn't need tax payers. They've gone a bit Bob Mugabe actually.

Let me remind you of some history.

In the run up to Brexit the BoE staged three auctions to raise money in case the pound and markets tanked after the vote.

When the market crashed it announced it would spend the ~£240 billion raised on market support measures, that was in addition to the £3.1 billion in liquidity they later injected into the banking system to hedge against the emerging crash.

Then in August, due to the weaker growth forecast they announced a further economic stimulus worth £170bn in order to avoid a recession.

The predicted recession after the Brexit vote didn't emerge!!!! Ahhhh all Remoaners WRONG!!!!!

But that was down to around a half a trillion pounds in market support measures and sound financial planning on the part of BoE and the Treasury. So no recession because of the magic printing press. The magic printing press of course ALWAYS works right?


Of course Brexiteers spun it as their being right all along.


So gee why have tax payers at all? Just print all the money you need!!!! costs of Brexit just PRINT the difference!!!



https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-kingdom-central-bank-balance-sheet.png?s=unitedkincenbanbalsh&v=201805291013v&d1=19180101&d2=20181231
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Val
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PostPosted: 02:04 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
"Accept our rule or starve"? At least we tried.
I fear for young people when they find themselves governed by a European Superstate. Maybe it'll work out ok. Praying


Sorry to bust your buble mate, but Brexit is dead.

You tried and you're losing as we speak.

You can lie to some people all the time. You can lie to all people some of the time. But you can't lie to all people all of the time.

The fact is Brexit was based on lies and the bright future it promised is a just a lie, backwards nationalistic dream based on long time lost empire. This is why we see so many angry brexiteers nowadays. They are angry because the lie is failing.

I don't fear for the young people when they find themselfs free in united Europe.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:04 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
This depends on [May] still being in power (poll today 25% of her party want her gone).

After Brexit, which most of them still bizarrely believe she intends to deliver.

If they had 48 honest MPs left, she'd have been gone months ago. It's becoming increasingly apparent that they don't, and she knows it.


Itchy wrote:
She also declared NO election in 2018 too. Rees Mogg also said he doesn't want the turd filled chalice.

But if it were thrust upon him.

I'd thrust my chalice on Priti Patel, for one example.

Heck, I'd even give Javid a fair shake. He couldn't be in any measurable way worse than BlairCameronMay.


Itchy wrote:
It also depends on them accepting the surrender.

Oh, I imagine it'll be abject and humiliating enough to appease them.

As long as Soros pockets a few tens of millions, we'll get the go-ahead to re-accede.


Itchy wrote:
Tax payers? The UK doesn't need tax payers. They've gone a bit Bob Mugabe actually.

Then they need the BoE to keep printing. They want us as a market, if nothing else.

Things are tough all over. How's Deutsche Bank looking these days?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 08:12 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:

Things are tough all over. How's Deutsche Bank looking these days?


Doesn't really matter. Markets, governments and institutions can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 12:53 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
Here is the slide the EU did to show what the customs union covers, sweet FA, nothing that cant be dealt with , with addons/ trade facilitation, can it?




Ah the Donald Trump / Mpd argument. It'll be EASY!!!!

So if it were so easy then why hasn't it already been done and implemented? Perhaps the difficulty is under-estimated? Look at your own slide one part says inspections. So those will happen by MAGIC right?


Rob Fzs wrote:
no deal brexit with the EEA/ EFTA route.



You appear to think this is still an option it isn't.


mm i love a strawman in the morning.

Transition with anything that needs settling, settled, i can easily flood you with the data on how it can be achieved via the Leave alliance if you fancy?

As part of the EEA agreements and addons, we will still be part of databases and have the licenses to cover the other 2 columns, you know this right? or hasn't the source as to where you get your information from not cropped up on this yet?

Not an option is it? it's more of an option than trucks backing up around Dover and you know it, or you're wearing your keyboard out on here for no particular point, you contradict yourself completely, there is no other option other than to stay in the EEA, because there is not the capacity for BIP's alone yet to cover our 3rd country status.

You're yapping about 'oh it wont be easy'

Yet Uganda have implemented single window, Abu Dhabi Ports has just introduced blockchain technology, i don't really get why there is a head in the sand approach to technology, it's coming whether government like it or not, i did expect you knew more of this stuff, but i have to put it in the simplest MDP terms because you only seem to have latched on to the headlines and not the detail, there is a reason remainers never ever mention single window, Unece, TIR blockchain etc etc, because they dont know about it, understand it and they dont want to because it all means losing the narrative of the impossible task of customs checks, just like you tried to conflict the customs union with customs checks, it's amateurish and you should do your homework better.

Inb4 this government is inept and wont be able to enact the likes on SW, yet corrupt Uganda can do it? Cross rail delivered on time / budget etc.

Shitting the bed over the WTO option with hard brexiteers is easy politics, the smart clever politics is explain, without being an arsehole, why the EEA option is beneficial until we can leave correctly.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:11 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Val wrote:
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
"Accept our rule or starve"? At least we tried.
I fear for young people when they find themselves governed by a European Superstate. Maybe it'll work out ok. Praying


Sorry to bust your buble mate, but Brexit is dead.

You tried and you're losing as we speak.

You can lie to some people all the time. You can lie to all people some of the time. But you can't lie to all people all of the time.

The fact is Brexit was based on lies and the bright future it promised is a just a lie, backwards nationalistic dream based on long time lost empire. This is why we see so many angry brexiteers nowadays. They are angry because the lie is failing.

I don't fear for the young people when they find themselfs free in united Europe.


Hmm, you said the brexiteers were all angry before the vote, yet they're even angrier now?

Yet other than this forum and weirdo's like you, no one is talking about brexit, it's just government policy now, like the NHS , which your lot used to whinge about.

I'm sure you are a bot, because you seem to post the exact same lines as those Russian brexit bots, but in remain version.

Oh btw the youth of south Europe are more opposed to the EU than their elders, good luck.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:26 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rob Fzs wrote:


mm i love a strawman in the morning.

Transition with anything that needs settling, settled, i can easily flood you with the data on how it can be achieved via the Leave alliance if you fancy?

As part of the EEA agreements and addons, we will still be part of databases and have the licenses to cover the other 2 columns, you know this right? or hasn't the source as to where you get your information from not cropped up on this yet?

Not an option is it? it's more of an option than trucks backing up around Dover and you know it, or you're wearing your keyboard out on here for no particular point, you contradict yourself completely, there is no other option other than to stay in the EEA, because there is not the capacity for BIP's alone yet to cover our 3rd country status.

You're yapping about 'oh it wont be easy'

Yet Uganda have implemented single window, Abu Dhabi Ports has just introduced blockchain technology, i don't really get why there is a head in the sand approach to technology, it's coming whether government like it or not, i did expect you knew more of this stuff, but i have to put it in the simplest MDP terms because you only seem to have latched on to the headlines and not the detail, there is a reason remainers never ever mention single window, Unece, TIR blockchain etc etc, because they dont know about it, understand it and they dont want to because it all means losing the narrative of the impossible task of customs checks, just like you tried to conflict the customs union with customs checks, it's amateurish and you should do your homework better.

Inb4 this government is inept and wont be able to enact the likes on SW, yet corrupt Uganda can do it? Cross rail delivered on time / budget etc.

Shitting the bed over the WTO option with hard brexiteers is easy politics, the smart clever politics is explain, without being an arsehole, why the EEA option is beneficial until we can leave correctly.


Infact most things i've said are covered in detail in this thread right here

https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/989909885432336384

PLz stop conflating customs union with the single market, thankyou.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 13:36 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
That's as maybe, but again: we're not going to leave.

The Times, via Nazi News say that May is facing a "defeat" next week over the Customs Union thanks to Soubry, Morgan, Grieve and the usual more-yellow-than-blue quislings.

I'm sure she'll be distraught, just distraught, to have to stay in.

But, the will of Parliament and that.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 15:09 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rob Fzs wrote:
why the EEA option


Yet again this isn't an option. You think the UK can tick a box and they automatically get to be EEA members not so.

The UK first has to negotiate with the EEA and EFTA members. Then they have to negotiate an EEA accession treaty with the EU27 AND the three EEA/EFTA members. This has been going well right? This includes the 4 freedoms. free movement of goods, capital, services, and labour.Two things the UK won't accept they won't accept therefore no EEA and no EFTA either. This 1 in 8 things that have to be accepted.

The key part of your solution is that the EU will allow the EU to remain a EEA or EFTA member AND skip the entire negotiation process.



It falls apart if they don't on EITHER of those points and the UK has got everything they want in their negotiations right? Right?



While it may be unacceptable to the UK to have massive lorry queues why would it be unacceptable to the EU? If anything letting it fall to bits puts them in a stronger position.


Oh and Uganda? It also took 2 years implement and 1-2 years to put in place all the things required. Then consider their economy. Their GDP is 17$ bn their economy is 1% the size of the UK.


There are 327 days. But it will all be put in place coz magic!!!
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 20:48 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
why the EEA option


Yet again this isn't an option. You think the UK can tick a box and they automatically get to be EEA members not so.

The UK first has to negotiate with the EEA and EFTA members. Then they have to negotiate an EEA accession treaty with the EU27 AND the three EEA/EFTA members. This has been going well right? This includes the 4 freedoms. free movement of goods, capital, services, and labour.Two things the UK won't accept they won't accept therefore no EEA and no EFTA either. This 1 in 8 things that have to be accepted.

The key part of your solution is that the EU will allow the EU to remain a EEA or EFTA member AND skip the entire negotiation process.



It falls apart if they don't on EITHER of those points and the UK has got everything they want in their negotiations right? Right?



While it may be unacceptable to the UK to have massive lorry queues why would it be unacceptable to the EU? If anything letting it fall to bits puts them in a stronger position.


Oh and Uganda? It also took 2 years implement and 1-2 years to put in place all the things required. Then consider their economy. Their GDP is 17$ bn their economy is 1% the size of the UK.


There are 327 days. But it will all be put in place coz magic!!!


We're already in the EEA you retard, infact, to actually leave it, we have to notify all participating parties that we are, this was not part of A50, as per ''Under Article 127, members of the EEA must explicitly say they plan to leave the single market''

Labour and migration are 2 different points, nevermind the government is looking at taking student numbers out of the migration count, do keep up with current events rather than those of 2 years ago.

You've not been paying attention to Mr Barnier, where he has on many occasions, hinted at docking in to EFTA for the likes of it's court. --https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/831040/Brexit-news-Barnier-Efta-Britain-respect-ECJ-case-law

As i've said previously, there's a 2 year standstill transition already bought and paid for, so you've admitted that its possible for Uganda to do it in 2 years, a 'shithole' country, so it can easily be achieved here.

quit the smart arse half baked devils advocate bullshit and you might actually learn something, it's actually like talking to someone from 2016, the politics and events have changed.
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Johnnythefox
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PostPosted: 20:51 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Gordon Brown calls for tougher controls on migration



Former PM says ministers should be focusing on issues that produced the Brexit vote
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 21:05 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Johnnythefox wrote:
Gordon Brown calls for tougher controls on migration



Former PM says ministers should be focusing on issues that produced the Brexit vote


He's just some bigoted man
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:31 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Johnnythefox wrote:
Gordon Brown calls for tougher controls on migration



Former PM says ministers should be focusing on issues that produced the Brexit vote


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/05/gordon-brown-calls-for-tougher-controls-on-migration
He seems to mean Britain should remain in the EU but apply its own rules. Obviously the EU won't allow that. Likewise Corbyn is "demanding" that the government obtains full access to the single market. It's nonsensical political posturing.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 22:36 - 05 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rob Fzs wrote:
to actually leave it, we have to notify all participating parties that we are, this was not part of A50, as per ''Under Article 127, members of the EEA must explicitly say they plan to leave the single market''


The government's position is that leaving the EU means leaving the EEA by default and that no active declaration via art 127 is required. EEA can also be left by agreement without art 127 as well. There was a judicial review in an attempt to clear this up.

This review went nowhere and stated that the judicial review was held far too soon.

So it's unknown as to if art 127 is needed or not.

Rob Fzs wrote:
so it can easily be achieved here.


Coz you sez so right? So go on say why this is the case.

Let me give you a few facts.

Uganda is incomparable to the UK economy.

Uganda's economy is worth $23bn dollars.
The UK economy is worth $3000bn dollars and vastly more complex.

Of course facts are useless and can be used to prove anything and coz I sez so is the ULTIMATE form of evidence!!
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:33 - 06 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
coz I sez so is the ULTIMATE form of evidence!!

We know, you keep sezzing so.

You don't get to hog the crystal ball. Leavers can make sweeping statements of absolute predictive fact as well, with every bit as much credibility as the doom mongers of Remoan.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 12:18 - 06 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
to actually leave it, we have to notify all participating parties that we are, this was not part of A50, as per ''Under Article 127, members of the EEA must explicitly say they plan to leave the single market''



So you've moved from we're not in the EEA, to doing some research on as to what we really are, why speak if you dont understand ?

The government's position is that leaving the EU means leaving the EEA by default and that no active declaration via art 127 is required. EEA can also be left by agreement without art 127 as well. There was a judicial review in an attempt to clear this up.

This review went nowhere and stated that the judicial review was held far too soon.

So it's unknown as to if art 127 is needed or not.

Rob Fzs wrote:
so it can easily be achieved here.


Coz you sez so right? So go on say why this is the case.

Let me give you a few facts.

Uganda is incomparable to the UK economy.

Uganda's economy is worth $23bn dollars.
The UK economy is worth $3000bn dollars and vastly more complex.

Of course facts are useless and can be used to prove anything and coz I sez so is the ULTIMATE form of evidence!!


Man, i follow about 60 remainer Mp's on Twitter that are now going for the EEA option, if it's out of bounds/impossible to implement, why are they pursuing it? maybe because it's the best option available and they have the numbers for it?

Your last reply is fucking bizarre, we have the money and expertise to create, build and deliver on time/ budget Cross rail, the largest rail project in Europe, yet somehow we cant now, because Itchy says' so, formulate customs protocols during a standstill transition for a streamlined transition out of the EU.

I couldnt give a shit what the government policy is, i'm on about my best solution to this, not your whingefest of easy politics in which you have no suggestions for your idea of fixing the problem? It's alright pretending to be smart, it's easy to say this waffle against your generic hard brexiteer, but it wont wash with me.

You're only getting yourself in a huff, i've been arguing with no answer defeatist remainers/ brexiteers for the last 3 years, you've conceded Uganda uses SW and then your next attempt for a muddle is to say it cant be done here :S get a grip man.

Whats your solution for a streamlined, frictionless brexit? i look forward to filleting you as to why that cant be be because 'evidence'
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Last edited by Rob Fzs on 12:25 - 06 Jun 2018; edited 1 time in total
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Rob Fzs
World Chat Champion



Joined: 07 Oct 2015
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PostPosted: 12:21 - 06 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:
Itchy wrote:
coz I sez so is the ULTIMATE form of evidence!!

We know, you keep sezzing so.

You don't get to hog the crystal ball. Leavers can make sweeping statements of absolute predictive fact as well, with every bit as much credibility as the doom mongers of Remoan.


Itchy is full of shit really, he makes the headlines but doesn't look inbetween the lines, he's just been skewered on Single Window in operation , he's been skewered on whether or not we have to negotiate to be in the EEA, all because it's easy politics to say so, get with the times and read the detail.

Like idgaf, my version of brexit is picking up momentum daily, while whatever Itchy's is, isn't going anywhere, hard brexit, hard remain, who knows because playing devils advocate is soo fun.
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Im-a-Ridah
World Chat Champion



Joined: 20 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: 13:00 - 06 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Val wrote:
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
"Accept our rule or starve"? At least we tried.
I fear for young people when they find themselves governed by a European Superstate. Maybe it'll work out ok. Praying


Sorry to bust your buble mate, but Brexit is dead.

You tried and you're losing as we speak.

You can lie to some people all the time. You can lie to all people some of the time. But you can't lie to all people all of the time.

The fact is Brexit was based on lies and the bright future it promised is a just a lie, backwards nationalistic dream based on long time lost empire. This is why we see so many angry brexiteers nowadays. They are angry because the lie is failing.

I don't fear for the young people when they find themselfs free in united Europe.



Sorry to bust your buble mate, but the EU is dead.

You tried and you're losing as we speak.

You can lie to some people all the time. You can lie to all people some of the time. But you can't lie to all people all of the time.

The fact is the EU was based on lies and the bright future it promised is a just a lie, backwards nationalistic dream based on long time lost empire. This is why we see so many angry Eurofanatics nowadays. They are angry because the lie is failing.

I don't fear for the young people when they find themselves free in a free, self-governing independent Britain looking outwards to the world not inwards to a communist dictatorship.
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Itchy
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Joined: 07 Apr 2005
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PostPosted: 14:22 - 06 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rob Fzs wrote:
why are they pursuing it?


There are also many MPs who are still saying they can negotiate a fantastic deal and not have freedom of movement.
Corbyn made this out as Labour position yesterday.

If it were impossible then why are they pursing it?

Rob Fzs wrote:
Your last reply is fucking bizarre, we have the money and expertise to create, build and deliver on time/ budget Cross rail.'


Cross rail took 58 years to plan and implement the act of Parliament allowing it to go ahead. It then took about 6 years to build.

Heathrow's 3rd runway has been under discussion for about 40 years and today has finally been approved. It is estimated to be operational by 2026

What does the above tell us? There are lead times. Things take time. There are 326 days. Or 691 with the transition period.

All of the solutions you propose? They're at the maybe we can do this back of an envelope stage and therefore the time scales are completely unrealistic.

Rob Fzs wrote:
Whats your solution for a streamlined, frictionless brexit? i look forward to filleting you as to why that cant be be because 'evidence'



A Set out what you want.
B Issue BoE bonds to fund it.
C Build it / Hire staff.

The UK government aren't even at stage A yet. B has already been done too. C not enough UK capacity? Hyundai/Norinco/Kawasaki and Hitachi could be drafted in to build it using money raised by B.
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Rogerborg
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Joined: 26 Oct 2010
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PostPosted: 15:48 - 06 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
How long does it take to not change anything?
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Itchy
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Joined: 07 Apr 2005
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PostPosted: 16:20 - 06 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:
How long does it take to not change anything?




The issue is the longer there are delays to changes and actual action the larger the chance you get put over a barrel and have to accept the other side without any negotiating power.


UK Nuclear power plant was this. Successive governments kicked this can down the road until they could no more. So EDF put them over a barrel £100 strike price or no plant. With no feasible alternatives besides posturing they had to accept that price.

Similar thing happened with the seats on the Soyutz to the ISS. The price is what the Russians say it is, seeing as the US has no capacity to put people into orbit any more.

Building and preparing things = less chance of being put over a barrel.
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