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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Itchy
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PostPosted: 18:21 - 20 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
Robert Peston has described a £300 billion negative swing in foreign investment as “jaw-dropping” after new figures revealed FDI has dropped off a cliff since the Brexit vote.

Global FDI flows reached their lowest level since 2013 in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to OECD figures.

Inflows to the OECD area decreased by 37 per cent, largely driven by decreases in the United Kingdom and the United States from high levels in 2016.

Outflows from the OECD area decreased by a more modest 4 per cent.

In the UK, FDI outward flows went from minus £22 billion in 2016 to £99.7 billion (positive) the following year.

Quote:

Inward flows dropped from £196 billion to £15 billion over the same period of time, resulting in a more than £300 billion swing.

Theresa May said the record year for FDI in 2016 meant a “vote in confidence” in UK businesses following the Brexit vote.

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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:29 - 21 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
China-China-China is no longer buying up all our infrastructure, you say? How sad. Sad
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 17:12 - 21 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:
China-China-China is no longer buying up all our infrastructure, you say? How sad. Sad


Why buy now when you can buy later? With $ to £ parity you can get a 30% discount at the very least Very Happy
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kippyzona
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PostPosted: 07:31 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
It looks like Airbus will be leaving the UK.
Should we mint a special medal for all the people that will lose their jobs a saying “Hero Of The British Empire “
They could even have a fast track queue at the job centre.
Just think how happy they will all be as the gaze fondly at their medal while watching daytime telly.
Let the lion roar.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:27 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
kippyzona wrote:
It looks like Airbus will be leaving the UK.

Pre-Googoling, I shall guess: could if threat maybe warn perhaps fear.

Should I pop over to Al Beeb to confirm that? Since it's anti-Brexit, I'll assume it's a headline article.

How warm am I?


[UPDATE]

Well, I couldn't wait.

https://i.imgur.com/iqQWs9L.png

https://i.imgur.com/7BxZRfd.png


All that's missing is the report that there could be a wolf. A wolf! For real this time! Come quickly, a wolf!
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Last edited by Rogerborg on 09:49 - 22 Jun 2018; edited 1 time in total
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kippyzona
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PostPosted: 09:48 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Headline of that lefty Remainer rag The Times.
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 10:12 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
kippyzona wrote:
It looks like Airbus will be leaving the UK.


Airbus already have a sizable manufacturing capability in China, and have done for a while, including a final assembly line for the Airbus A320 series, when we leave the EU single market, we'll be fighting for a trade deal with the EU, in the same way China does with the EU, oh, and China just happen's to be the EU's 2nd largest trading partner, somehow, I doubt the UK will come anywhere close to matching that ..

... well, I think you can see where this is going ..
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 11:21 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Out of curiosity, as the extreme-marxist-leftist-stalinist Google is clearly censoring the avalanche of news on the subject:

Which interesting companies committed to (or even consider) relocation to Greatestest Brexitain after it's freed from the ever-so-damaging EUvil shackes? Especially those suffering from the inevitable and imminent collapse and chaos on the continent must be yearning for Strong & Stable and since we will be the land of opportunity and freedom, surely they must be swarming on the doorstep already?
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kippyzona
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PostPosted: 12:27 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Let's not forget the main causes of global warming.
Cars and planes.
This government has showed it's moral backbone by not being complicit with the manufacture of either of those evils.
Tough on Global Warming .Tough on the causes of Global Warming.
When the sea levels rise there will be no blood on this governments hands.
3 cheers for our eco warriors.
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kippyzona
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PostPosted: 14:44 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
What is it about White Christians that you don't like?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 15:15 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:


Should I pop over to Al Beeb to confirm that? Since it's anti-Brexit, I'll assume it's a headline article.

How warm am I?




All that's missing is the report that there could be a wolf. A wolf! For real this time! Come quickly, a wolf!


The airbus risk assessment is here:


https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/channel-specific/website-/company/global-presence/uk/Brexit-Risk-Assessment-21-Jun-FINAL.pdf

Some highlights:

Quote:
Airbus has more than 4,000 suppliers in UK and an integrated supply chain with parts crossing the Channel multiple times. This is operated on a just-in-time basis relying on frictionless trade today provided by the combination of the EU Customs Union and Single Market rules. Any change in customs procedures, logistics and environmental standards would have major industrial and cost impact.



So how do you operate a just in time basis with border checks? Or border delays.

Ok so they might keep more stock on hand.

Except more stock on hand means more capital tied up in it. Dell in Ireland had their component makers extremely close to minimise this as do many manufacturers.

More stock on hand also means storage facilities this means more business rates. This means higher costs. You mentioned yourself about suspicious fires and business rates on some biker cafe.


So what do?
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 16:04 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
So what do?

Fetch your wolf killing torches and pitchforks, townspeople.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 17:18 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
Rogerborg wrote:


Should I pop over to Al Beeb to confirm that? Since it's anti-Brexit, I'll assume it's a headline article.

How warm am I?




All that's missing is the report that there could be a wolf. A wolf! For real this time! Come quickly, a wolf!


The airbus risk assessment is here:


https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/channel-specific/website-/company/global-presence/uk/Brexit-Risk-Assessment-21-Jun-FINAL.pdf

Some highlights:

Quote:
Airbus has more than 4,000 suppliers in UK and an integrated supply chain with parts crossing the Channel multiple times. This is operated on a just-in-time basis relying on frictionless trade today provided by the combination of the EU Customs Union and Single Market rules. Any change in customs procedures, logistics and environmental standards would have major industrial and cost impact.



So how do you operate a just in time basis with border checks? Or border delays.

Ok so they might keep more stock on hand.

Except more stock on hand means more capital tied up in it. Dell in Ireland had their component makers extremely close to minimise this as do many manufacturers.

More stock on hand also means storage facilities this means more business rates. This means higher costs. You mentioned yourself about suspicious fires and business rates on some biker cafe.


So what do?


Are you making a case for dropping business rates here?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 17:34 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rob Fzs wrote:
Are you making a case for dropping business rates here?


Nope.

Merely that businesses structured and arranged their business activities to the government tax environment they are in. Just In time processes in part were a method chose to reduce costs business rates are one of these costs.

It's one piece of the jigsaw.


So in the absence of a free trade deal (EEA means free movement).

Then there are delays. Delays cost money, mitigation of delays cost money too (truckers don't work for free, unused machinery isn't being used for output).

There is of course the other option that airbus replicates their supply chain in the UK in order to mitigate such costs. The question is though is this likely?
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Ste
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Joined: 01 Sep 2002
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PostPosted: 18:16 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
So how do you operate a just in time basis with border checks? Or border delays.

They should be used to Dover Calais delays.

So what do? Business as usual until the world ends?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 18:55 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Ste wrote:
They should be used to Dover Calais delays.



Delays at ports are a given. Such delays however are infrequent at best.

The required border checks for non EEA and WTO mean significant delays all of the time.

The Dover port facility has said this themselves:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/914456504425738240

A 2 minute delay would mean a 17 mile traffic back up. But what do Dover Port facility know? They're obviously terrorists and the company that runs Dover Port and has done for many years knows NOTHING about ports right?


Ste wrote:
So what do? Business as usual until the world ends?


Numerous solutions

#1 Build port facilities so that lorries can move just as fast as they could previously.
This isn't happening.

#1.1 Use magical technology that doesn't exist to have lorries move as quickly before.

#2 Get a trade deal that allows the UK to be in the EEA and deny freedom of movement.
This isn't happening.

#3 For companies to invest billions on replicating facilities that exist in the EU in the UK.

#4 For companies to shut down UK plants and thus negating the customs checks completely.

This is what Airbus is considering.

#5 Tolerate the long border waits which will cost nothing as drivers will work for free, the fuel to power lorries will be free and bills stop coming because of those delays.
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Val
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PostPosted: 21:02 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:

Pre-Googoling, I shall guess: could if threat maybe warn perhaps fear.



Uh-oh...

https://i.imgur.com/2zqeggu.png

Live footage from Number 10 celebrating the EU Withdrawal Bill:

https://i.imgur.com/mObN54X.gifv

It's a warning. You've been warned. When 116 000 Airbus related jobs go abroad the same way JLR already has gone don't say it's EU fault.

Also Google Unilever. And Galileo Thumbs Up

BTW I sold all my UK shares last year. Unilever will cease to trade in the UK anyway. Another warning that will happen as planned end of 2018 Idea
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 21:29 - 22 Jun 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Val wrote:
Uh-oh...


Not quite. BMW and Airbus before said they'd have to consider their position post vote.

If you read the full statement from Airbus they said they've been trying to get clarity for over a year now yet there has been no movement or indication of what will happen.


As they're a big multinational they will have contingency plans. As it's getting close with 300 or so days left they are starting to enact them.
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