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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 12:26 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we'd never been in the Common Market or the EU we'd still be buying and selling with Europe. Objections to even working with the EU suggest that hard Brexiteers suppose we'll never deal with Europe again. Shocked I'll read the White Paper but right now the Chequer's proposal makes sense to me.
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barrkel
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PostPosted: 12:46 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
Martin Howe QC cuts through the fudge in the Chequers statement and concludes: vassal relationship. It's entirely about how we will abase ourselves before the EU, without asking them for any consideration in return. Something I'd missed is that we'll still be shackled by EU diktats when trading with other countries, e.g. we won't be able to benefit from modern agriculture.


David Davis had nearly two years to deliver on his promise of a easy Brexit, and completely failed.

The problem Brexiters have is that all they can do is criticise, since all their proposals are unworkable. The only Brexit scenarios that deliver wins for the UK aren't available to the UK, because they rely on other parties permitting races to the bottom, or destroying group unity (won through careful tradeoffs), or devastating large segments of UK manufacturing industry.

All Brexiters can see is the downsides of the EU. They're having a very hard time coming to terms with the fact that all the alternatives are worse.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 13:33 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

barrkel wrote:
David Davis had nearly two years to deliver on his promise of a easy Brexit

I look forward to reading the quotation of where he promised that.


barrkel wrote:
The problem Brexiters have is that

... we're led by Remoaners who are terrified of any change, no matter how minor, and who assert that their opinions are objective reality. That sounds like zealotry to me, but I'll leave flinging that sort of accusation to the experts.


barrkel wrote:
All Brexiters can see is the downsides of the EU.

Yes, every one of us. Not a single one has weighed the advantages of being shackled to the worst performing regional economy on the planet, versus the disadvantages of being red-taped into managed decline by an unelected dictatorial anti-democratic bureaucracy.

Also, we're all just racists and badly educated, let's not forget.
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BTTD
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PostPosted: 13:56 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

barrkel wrote:
David Davis had nearly two years to deliver on his promise of a easy Brexit, and completely failed.


Or was he tasked with working on a white paper on Brexit, and then presented with an entirely different white paper on Brexit last week on Thursday and told to agree to it by Friday. A white paper that had already been discussed with European officials, that he'd never seen before.
I don't think anything he was working on has formed any part of what's being pursued by May, or the remainers who prepared the white paper.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 14:23 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
I look forward to reading the quotation of where he promised that.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUv_vlNAiIU

Liam Fox said it.

David Davis said nobody said it would be easy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J65qfmmUoQ
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 14:38 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:

Yes, every one of us. Not a single one has weighed the advantages of being shackled to the worst performing regional economy on the planet, versus the disadvantages of being red-taped into managed decline by an unelected dictatorial anti-democratic bureaucracy.



Ever seen Star Trek II? Wrath of Khan? In fact I will save you the effort:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfJ6Uvn41eg

Or if a factory is losing money? What do? Most people will say shut it down. Except shutting it down can lose you even more money.

While the EU may not be great the alternatives may well be worse.

Ah yes XZY will save us... yet it's entirely dismissed that XZY have their own interests and will want something. Australians and New Zealand allies right part of the five eyes. Except they want higher quotas on meat. They don't want to split the EU and UK quota they want separate and higher quotas.


Trump? You think he's not going to want something?
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 15:07 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:


While the EU may not be great the alternatives may well be worse.


OTOH...
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 15:31 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:


Really? From what I've heard, he's been very critical of May's surrender to the EU and is pulling no punches.
He seems pretty honest and committed to me.


Words are one thing...
Pretty sure I've seen him (Rees-Mogg) asked on a couple of tv shows whether he would pick up the Brexit leadership challenge (which would presumably mean ousting May from No.10) and he's just coyly laughed and declined, then said he supports the Prime Minister, just doesn't think she's right on everything to do with this issue.

Quote:
How about "best of 3"? Or maybe we can carry on until the establishment (and you) get the result they wanted?


The result I'd really like to see is the total collapse of the EU, and then individual countries finding a way to work together without surrendering sovereignty and the right to make their own decisions. Until that happens, I'll take Brexit, and like you, I don't like an option that leaves us with the worst of both worlds. We did vote out, and I do think we should stick to that, with as little compromise as possible, but I also believe that if the EU comes to its senses, we should still work closely with them for mutual benefit - but they don't seem to want that. Maybe I'm just simple or too much of an idealist; I'm the first to admit that I'm no politician.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 15:37 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:

the EU comes to its senses, we should still work closely with them for mutual benefit - but they don't seem to want that.



Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

You voted to leave a club.

Yet you're asking, nah DEMANDING to still have the same perks AND you're saying the EU is being unreasonable?

I can't go to a gym I no longer have membership with. I can no longer live in a house I don't own.

Yet you're saying here it's possible.

Fine give me your bike and your house.

I didn't pay for it but according to you I can have it.

If you disagree then your whole premise is wrong. I'm still waiting for the deeds to your house and the V5 to your bike.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 16:04 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pointing out how it would be mutually beneficial for the EU to continue working closely with the UK isn't "DEMANDING to still have the same perks".
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 16:20 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:

the EU comes to its senses, we should still work closely with them for mutual benefit - but they don't seem to want that.



Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

You voted to leave a club.


No big deal. I've quit clubs before. Didn't do me any harm.

Quote:
Yet you're asking, nah DEMANDING to still have the same perks AND you're saying the EU is being unreasonable?


Quote where I have DEMANDED anything.

Quote:
I can no longer live in a house I don't own.


Of course you can live in a house you don't own. You can rent. But I agree yours is a poor analogy.

Quote:
Yet you're saying here it's possible.


I don't see why countries that preserve their sovereignty can't work together. Nor do I see why the UK and EU can't work together on some issues, but go their own way on others.
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Last edited by chickenstrip on 16:30 - 12 Jul 2018; edited 1 time in total
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 16:30 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
I don't see why countries that preserve their sovereignty can't work together.


Laughing Laughing Laughing

You've resorted to the two world wars and one world cup mentality.

Since when has UK sovereignty ever been in doubt? You are in a BREXIT thread, the UK can leave and is it leaving. If it were not a sovereign state EU troops would have stopped us.

And here's the kicker the restriction on Parliament’s powers was voluntarily entered into by the UK. Acts of Parliament are still required for EU law its force in the UK. Parliament could revoke that law – though that would leave the UK in breach of the terms of EU membership. . Or that the UK has defied the EU with prisoners voting rights. So tanks and paratroopers landed to invade the UK for defying its will?

UK Parliament has absolute sovereignty. It isn't even bound by laws it created itself. The Magna Carta of 1215 can't be repealed or superseded yet it hasn't applied for centuries.


Just because the UK government chose not to implement several things doesn't mean they aren't sovereign. For instance migration rules UK opened up borders back in 2006 with zero restrictions. Germany didn't. Yet it's the EU's fault. Or the fact that the UK can deport within 3 months if they don't have jobs.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 17:23 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Since when has UK sovereignty ever been in doubt?

Since our courts became subservient to the ECJ and ECHR.


Itchy wrote:
UK Parliament has absolute sovereignty.

Until the laws that they pass come up before our EUrophile judges for interpretation, and any implementation of them contrary to the will of Strasbourg (real or imagined) is declared to be Ungood.

For example...

Itchy wrote:
Or the fact that the UK can deport within 3 months if they don't have jobs.

The fact is that we can't deport EUrospongers even if they're criminal homeless beggars.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 17:43 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
Since our courts became subservient to the ECJ and ECHR..


Laughing Laughing

You forgot this bit:

Because Parliament chose to agree to those rules. Yet at the same time Parliament reserves the right to withdraw from those rules and put itself above EU laws. The very fact that BREXIT is happening and that the government of a nation can choose to leave is proof of sovereignty.

Nobody said you can't leave and drop everything... merely that you're just trying to keep perks you no longer have the right to.


It's funny how little you understand.

Now lets compare to somewhere say Hong Kong. HK has no sovereignty both under the British or the PRC.

HK does have the legislative council which is their own little Parliament. Except only 50% of the seats can be voted on by the people the other 50% are voted in by industry. Of all these candidates all of them have to be approved by Beijing. HK has a system of common law they inherited from the UK. They can vote in laws and vote to change laws they implemented or laws formerly put in by the former Colonial government. However what sits above HK law is PRC law and the PRC constitution. PRC law has primacy and the PRC can overrule anything the HK judges or legislative council vote for. In practice they never test this. Much like the Queen never tests her above the law status. There is no mechanism to challenge PRC law or to vote to leave the PRC. There are also 8000 PLA troops garrisoned there to ensure they don't leave.

As a result HK is not a sovereign nation as they can't truly self govern or even make moves towards it.

So you might say why aren't people going all brave heart over it?

https://lh6.ggpht.com/_2uag8Atvykk/S9o6O0UkgkI/AAAAAAAAATs/KUDfAlLmIGY/mel%20gibson%20william%20wallace%5B4%5D.jpg

The fact they supply about 70% of the food 50% of the electricity and 60% of the water is one thing... they other thing? They're doing quite well under the PRC too as they grasped the opportunities.


The UK can choose to ignore laws by the ECJ and ECHR.They can choose to move themselves out from the ECJ and ECHR any time they want. There are consequences of this however, but not shooty shooty consequences. Just yeah well if you don't agree to this you can't have this perk.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 18:00 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Rogerborg wrote:
Since our courts became subservient to the ECJ and ECHR..


Laughing Laughing

You forgot this bit:

Because Parliament chose to agree to those rules. Yet at the same time Parliament reserves the right to withdraw from those rules and put itself above EU laws. The very fact that BREXIT is happening and that the government of a nation can choose to leave is proof of sovereignty.


Well, you enjoy yourself going round in circles.
Personally, I think you've bloody-mindedly chosen to misinterpret what I've said, but meh.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 19:31 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
It's funny how little you understand.

Well, we are a pink and ignorant people.

You can keep explaining over and over how the UK parliament (as a notional proxy for its people) chose to place us under the heel of the Brusselcrats, without it changing the fact that we, the people have now directly voted to change that.

The grievance that we're actually currently airing is that we have a regime which seems determined to keep us in a master-vassal relationship.

How do you bigly understanding people in China-China-China deal with anti-democratic despots?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 19:48 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

You still don't get it.

Rogerborg wrote:
You can keep explaining over and over how the UK parliament (as a notional proxy for its people) chose to place us under the heel of the Brusselcrats, without it changing the fact that we, the people have now directly voted to change that.


Rogerborg wrote:
grievance that we're actually currently airing is that we have a regime which seems determined to keep us in a master-vassal relationship.


What did I just say? UK Parliament is sovereign. It can do what it wants and it is not bound by much in terms of decision making.

Therefore they can completely ignore the vote or observe it. It doesn't matter. This is what a sovereign Parliament and by extension nation means. Don't like it? Then your Sovereignty argument falls flat.


Don't like it? Change the individuals that make up the government and Parliament. Oh there was an election and those representatives didn't change (much).
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 20:46 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:


It'd be nice to think so, says a lot of the right things, but whenever he's asked, he just won't commit. I fear his loyalty may well actually lie more with party than country when it comes to the crunch.


The same is true about most leading brexiteers. Their reasoning is quite simple: they may profit immensely from tanking the economy and UK's political significance (shorting will reward the former and Vladimir Vladimirovich the latter), but it will be a generation before they can dream of ruling the country again if they are seen as responsible. Therefore they won't bite; they will yap loudly from some distance, hoping to scare May into doing the deed for them.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 20:52 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:


The same is true about most leading brexiteers. Their reasoning is quite simple: they may profit immensely from tanking the economy and UK's political significance (shorting will reward the former and Vladimir Vladimirovich the latter), but it will be a generation before they can dream of ruling the country again if they are seen as responsible. Therefore they won't bite; they will yap loudly from some distance, hoping to scare May into doing the deed for them.


The trouble with that is, with Remainers in charge of Brexit, we'll get the worst possible deal, so it'll be Remainers that get the blame for tanking the economy. The irony is delicious Laughing
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Ste
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PostPosted: 20:56 - 12 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump is here so he's going to fix Brexit and save us.

Wub
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:08 - 13 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
You still don't get it.

What I don't get is why you don't get that I'm not disagreeing with you.

Stop chewing on the same old bone and move on to fresh meat. Our problem isn't that we as a nation can't escape thralldom: it's that we've been conquered in a soft coup by an anti-democratic political / psuedo-political / judicial / journalistic class that conspire to ensure that we won't.


Itchy wrote:
Don't like it? Change the individuals that make up the government and Parliament.

And the judiciary, and the media, and quangos.

What I don't get is why you're not explaining how you did that back home. Don't you want the UK to be as free as China-China-China? Why won't you share your solution with us thick slices of gammon? Sad
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 08:35 - 13 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh brilliant - Trumps laughing at us now for still jumping on the coat tails of the EU.
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BTTD
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PostPosted: 08:40 - 13 Jul 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polarbear wrote:
Oh brilliant - Trumps laughing at us now for still jumping on the coat tails of the EU.


Is that based on what he's actually said, or what the media has said that he said?
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