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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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DrSnoosnoo
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PostPosted: 16:38 - 23 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well I have a card that is specifically meant for foreign purchases, since I get the daily exchange rate with no fees. Within minutes, a card provider will offer a card which includes the "no fees" in the EU, though I'm sure mine would continue to work abroad anyway seeing as it's the credit provider that changes currency to £.

I've used it in Cambodia, USA, Thailand, France, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark and Italy. All with no fees and better currency exchange rates than any bureau de change.

Everyone knows that using your debit card abroad is a silly move and to either take enough cash or have a travel specific card.
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Val
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PostPosted: 21:14 - 25 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at Farage and his brexit friends I have to say I'm a bit surpised to find out that no deal will have such dire consequences to Britain:

https://i.imgur.com/Ikb8rsi.jpg

Talk about useless wankers Laughing
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 08:15 - 29 Aug 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dlts3NAXcAE807q.jpg

the Dagenham Ford engine tax dodge relies on SA.
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Val
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PostPosted: 03:32 - 01 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

The end of EU/UK supply chain means destruction of the UK's economy.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/uk-brexit-implausible-export-strategy-by-ngaire-woods-2018-08

But Theresa May has done a trade deal so it's worth it:

Itchy wrote:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dlts3NAXcAE807q.jpg

the Dagenham Ford engine tax dodge relies on SA.

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Ste
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PostPosted: 03:33 - 01 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sexual harassment panda
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Val
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PostPosted: 03:53 - 01 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
Sexual harassment panda


I would not dare asking what are you doing with a panda at 3:33am Shocked
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 15:25 - 03 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Watching south park?
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 15:27 - 03 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5I9TWMA4U8
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Ste
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PostPosted: 16:56 - 03 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

You fucking piece of panda shit.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 17:45 - 03 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

DrSnoosnoo wrote:
Well I have a card that is specifically meant for foreign purchases, since I get the daily exchange rate with no fees. Within minutes, a card provider will offer a card which includes the "no fees" in the EU, though I'm sure mine would continue to work abroad anyway seeing as it's the credit provider that changes currency to £.

I've used it in Cambodia, USA, Thailand, France, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark and Italy. All with no fees and better currency exchange rates than any bureau de change.

Everyone knows that using your debit card abroad is a silly move and to either take enough cash or have a travel specific card.


It's a scare tactic. The reality is that it would probably create a few thousand jobs in all kinds of import/export and exchange services areas. The costs of being in the EU are just too great for our economy which under EU management has been largely hollowed out.

Val wrote:
Looking at Farage and his brexit friends I have to say I'm a bit surpised to find out that no deal will have such dire consequences to Britain:

https://i.imgur.com/Ikb8rsi.jpg

Talk about useless wankers Laughing


A shortage of guys who want to fvck other people's girlfriends

... I don't buy that tbh. I've heard some real nonsense from remoaners but this is another level Laughing
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 18:05 - 03 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im-a-Ridah wrote:
... I don't buy that tbh.


Copied from Quora.

In 2005 UK law changed so that sperm donation was no longer anonymous. The change was that children fathered from donations had the right to contact their biological fathers at the age of 18.

https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4397249.stm

Because of this change in law UK donations collapsed. With some citing <10 donors in the UK.

This was further complicated by the fact that a single donor could only be used 10 times.

So a big sperm bank in Denmark one of the biggest in the world apparently filled the void.

A donor can choose an anonymous donation with only a basic psychological and physical profile or a non anonymous donation.

There is a 75-25 anon vs non anon split. UK law however says if you want to use get treated in the UK, you have to pick donors who are not anonymous.


Im-a-Ridah wrote:
It's a scare tactic. The reality is that it would probably create a few thousand jobs in all kinds of import/export and exchange services areas.


So all of these import export exchange service area people are going to work for free right?

No? Well if they don't work for free then do they add any value?

If they don't work for free or add any value... then what are they?

Oh it's just an additional overhead or cost. Additional overheads and costs that do not add value reduce the competitiveness of companies.

This is why Just in time manufacturing exists.

It exists to reduce the amount of cash tied up in stock.
It exists to reduce the amount of non value adding overheads.

A big warehouse to store stuff doesn't add any value yet you need to pay rent, maintenance and business rates on the space it occupies. So if you eliminate the warehouse or reduce the size considerably with just in time... well that warehouse is no longer needed is it?



So what about it? Well now as you just said yourself if you import or export you now need to hire the services of those import/export and exchange services which was previously not required before. If you're a big company you may have one in house which still isn't a value adding activity.

If the government provides these services... well where do governments get their money from?

So they either have to cut money from somewhere else or increase taxes. If they're funded from tariffs then end consumers pay more.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 18:59 - 03 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
In 2005 UK law changed so that sperm donation was no longer anonymous. The change was that children fathered from donations had the right to contact their biological fathers at the age of 18.

So, a good law, or a bad one?

Itchy wrote:
So a big sperm bank in Denmark one of the biggest in the world apparently filled the void.

Laughing
Thus you say it circumvented UK law. Is that good or bad?
I expect Val is drafting a meme with lorry loads of spunk queuing to get into Harwich as a result of Brexit.
Quote:
This is why Just in time manufacturing exists.

The current system is madness though.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/brexit-uk-car-industry-mini-britain-eu
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 19:22 - 03 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Thus you say it circumvented UK law. Is that good or bad?


I don't know merely that they still can't be anon and if I were in such a situation I'd rather prefer properly screened stuff rather than some random bloke you met in a pub.

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
The current system is madness though.


It's actually a rational response to the business environment.

Brown for instance changed tax laws so empty commercial properties still were charged business rates... so companies demolished empty spaces or had suspicious fires. 4-5 months ago a biker cafe burned down and 'borg mentioned business rates.

There are many reasons why they use a distributed production model. I'm not BMW so I can only guess it is related to costs.

My personal feeling is the Ohio problem or the Polarbear (BCF user) problem. It was on slashdot recently. In Ohio they wanted to open a new plant semi conductors or something. This plant needed water from Lake Errie and would release a lot of pollution residents welcomed the jobs but had concerns about the pollution.

Oh it's only one plant... so grumbling they allowed it. What about two three? Four? At what point do you say no more? Polarbear laments the apparently apocalyptic industrial wasteland of India and Asia. He doesn't want this. So BMW dots them around the place so they can say it's only one plant.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 20:06 - 03 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
It's actually a rational response to the business environment.


Business finds surprising ways to thrive, you say?
Thumbs Up

This is why we need the useless politicians to step aside, saying this is how it is, get on with it. I'm not predicting a garden of roses but nor am I forecasting the apocalypse.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 20:24 - 03 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
I'm not predicting a garden of roses but nor am I forecasting the apocalypse.


You are Roberto Azevêdo AICMFFTAs
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 21:20 - 03 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Business finds surprising ways to thrive, you say?


Nope not quite. Innovative businesses find ways to thrive. There is a big difference.

The UK business model tends to view things more simply as inputs vs outputs. With scant long term planning.

We can look back at history:

Chinese were bought in as cheap coolies during the Napoleonic wars, WW1 and WW2.

Then the Indians (before India/Pakistan split) were bought in as cheap labour for the textile industries the legacy of this can be seen today.*

Then Eastern Europeans.

Now you've got Gove talking about Ukrainians being bought in to replace Eastern Europeans.

*This is particularly interesting because India/China/Pakistan textiles invested in machinery to out compete the UK even though their labour costs were rock bottom.

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
This is why we need the useless politicians to step aside,


Well if only you'd collectively stop voting for them.

Additionally if a politician told the truth (and this isn't limited to the UK) nobody would support them. We saw this numerous times:

Labour's new Jerusalem in 1945 'a prosperous yet egalitarian society' we aren't there yet just wait a little bit longer and we'll get there my friends. People waited and waited and got tired of it.

I promise I won't cum in your mouth.

Tony Blair things can only get better etc.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 17:16 - 04 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laughing Laughing

Love how after all the oo'ing and arr'ing over half a brexit, there probably will be a fucking real hard brexit now that will effect the remainers the most when they could have been limiting damage, rather than the self indulgent idea of a second referendum.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 17:17 - 04 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:


Prove me wrong post ANY Brexit plan how UK to leave the EU without causing mayhem to economy and jobs?


What is the worst outcome to GDP over 15 years of no deal?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 17:32 - 04 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

☑ Remoaner Bias
☐ Soros Funded
☐ Hasn't received payoff from Arron Banks
☑ Talking the Country Down
☑ Saboteurs
☐ Government Leaflet
☐ Barnier's Sock Puppets
☐ Treasonous unaccountable quango
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 17:39 - 04 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
What is the worst outcome to GDP over 15 years of no deal?


GDP isn't really all that as most people are disconnected from it.

It's this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-29/britons-essential-spending-eats-up-80-percent-of-incomes

If essential spending takes up 80% of incomes. We can see this when ever somebody asks for something they always add in for cheap. Or it's why watching TV is so popular as it's all many can afford. If people are so loaded up on expenses then what happens when prices of stuff rise?

This is linked to this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37504449

Then what happens?

People consume less = lower living standards.
People consume less = lots of job losses in areas of discretionary spending where people work.

The strange thing is living standards over time are supposed to increase rather than regress.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 19:57 - 04 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Business finds surprising ways to thrive, you say?


Nope not quite. Innovative businesses find ways to thrive. There is a big difference.

The UK business model tends to view things more simply as inputs vs outputs. With scant long term planning.

Dubious, sweeping statement.

Itchy wrote:
We can look back at history.

What, again? Very Happy Look to the future. Besides, if there were reliable economic lessons from history economics would be a science with guaranteed outcomes.

Itchy wrote:
GDP isn't really all that as most people are disconnected from it.

We should remember that next time you post GDP data to support your own arguments.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 20:46 - 04 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's amazing that all you can actually do is attack me rather than actually come up with a counter argument or actually any plan other than believe.

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Dubious, sweeping statement.


It's actually a case study quoted in David Begg's economics text book and also Mervyn King's textbook. Begg was economic advisor to the government for years. King was BoE boss but corrupted by the fat pension.

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Look to the future.


This again?

You keep on saying this but you never actually flesh out any detail other than believe.

I know why you do this. You do this because once you put down any sort of detail then it is subject to scrutiny.

It's like the more trade with RoTW... RoTW is poor. Sudan with their $1500 salaries are going to be buying tons of Range Rovers and Jaguars. Plus RoTW is far away. Fuel isn't free either.

If your belief is so strong then take up my AKM challenge. I'll up the stakes £25000 per bullet. If pure faith can change reality.

Too harsh? Then take the bank manager challenge. Go to a bank manager with a mostly blank business plan see how much money you can get off him.

He'll laugh at you and ask you if you're kidding.



Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Besides, if there were reliable economic lessons from history economics would be a science with guaranteed outcomes.


You're confusing fundamental economics and experimental models.

Fundamental economics is well fundamental. Experimental models well are experimental and need to assume things.

For instance the UK exports Nissan Qashqais

Cash price OTR, £23,120. (note this price will go up).

Currently lots of Europeans buy them.

So who is going to buy them in the future?

Africans? - Look at how much they earn per year the most developed parts need to save (not eating or spending anything else) for 8 years to buy one. Africa is also cornered by China.

Japan, China? Canada/USA - Nissan already has plants there.

South America? - There are plants in Brazil.

So who exactly are you going to sell it to? Australia? Australia is geographically closer to the source Japan and China.

This can be repeated across lots of things.

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
We should remember that next time you post GDP data to support your own arguments.


It's not quite so simple. GDP and income is disconnected in the UK. In other countries when GDP rises incomes rise along with it.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 20:54 - 04 Sep 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote

What is the AKM challenge?
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