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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 16:19 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Agree, tbh I originally voted leave financially - (Ignoring the ridiculous bus 350m stunt)...

The data is available to anyone who cares to look for in/out from/to the EU.

The real NET number is much lower - but still significant...

However, now I see what a bunch of crunts they are - I now want to leave regardless of how much money we save.

Im just interested now to try and work out a real cost of leaving (assuming no divorce settlement type money).

Money saved minus cost of new infrastructure minus cost of extra import taxes plus extra income from UK sales etc.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 16:48 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
However, now I see what a bunch of crunts they are - I now want to leave regardless of how much money we save.

Im just interested now to try and work out a real cost of leaving (assuming no divorce settlement type money).

Money saved minus cost of new infrastructure minus cost of extra import taxes plus extra income from UK sales etc.


The first bit above really needs stressing. It's not so much "EU citizens" as "EU Politburo", but the Eurocits have little influence over the Europolitburo and their totalitarian "Project".

I don't think it's possible to work out a nett cost. There are too many variables and side effects (such as "inward investment and employment"). I suspect we will have to pay our upfront committments this budget period, but how much if any can be "reclaimed" I don't know.

Still. "Freedom is slavery", eh? If you get my drift.
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 18:19 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
As much as I agree in principle.. 10bn in the first year is probably too high a guess.

My analysis shows between 2010 - 2017 we paid in on average 4bn per year more than we got back.

The forecast for 2018-2023 looks similar.

So I'd say 10bn would take 2.5 years to recoup. But the real number could end up being well below 10bn if the infrastructure is already in place and just needs some TLC.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 20:48 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Well, Mrs May's been to the '22. She seems to have received a supportive welcome. Hopefully now the government can pull together, jointly stick the boot in to the EU, and get a decent exit deal together followed by a trade deal.

I's much better to be united than divided.
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struan80
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PostPosted: 20:57 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
To read through this thread would be mindboggling.

Can anyone please help and tell me what the general consensus is on this subject in this thread? Is it a good or bad idea to 100% leave European? That would be a great help if you could do that for me gents and Hellcat.

I'll be voting for Scottish Green Party with additional withdrawal from Europe and filtered European borders.

To get out of the ridiculous UK political system I would also be in favor of independence.

Thanks folk.

Last edited by struan80 on 21:30 - 24 Oct 2018; edited 1 time in total
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 21:08 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Oh dear. I think you'll have to refer to the referendum itself to find out whether people think it's a good idea or a bad one to leave the EU.

As for the Scots Greens, if they're the same generally as the ones in the rest of the UK, I will say that many of their environmental ideas are very good, but the rest are by and large utterly iiinsane.
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struan80
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PostPosted: 21:34 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
Oh dear. I think you'll have to refer to the referendum itself to find out whether people think it's a good idea or a bad one to leave the EU.

As for the Scots Greens, if they're the same generally as the ones in the rest of the UK, I will say that many of their environmental ideas are very good, but the rest are by and large utterly insane.


Fine line between genius and insanity.
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thx1138
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PostPosted: 21:50 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
Oh dear. I think you'll have to refer to the referendum itself to find out whether people think it's a good idea or a bad one to leave the EU.

As for the Scots Greens, if they're the same generally as the ones in the rest of the UK, I will say that many of their environmental ideas are very good, but the rest are by and large utterly iiinsane.


green party is fairly anti-motorcycle Crying or Very sad
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 21:57 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
thx1138 wrote:
green party is fairly anti-motorcycle Crying or Very sad


I've just looked up their transport policy (https://policy.greenparty.org.uk/tr.html):

Motorcycles

TR320 Smaller, low powered motorcycles are generally preferable to cars (especially those with a single occupant) as they take up less road space and are more economic consumers of fuel. However, the Green Party does not wish to see increased use of motorcycles because they emit pollution and noise and can endanger road users. The aim is to encourage much less use of high powered machines and for low powered machines to offer an alternative for those who currently use these or cars and could not transfer to more sustainable modes.

TR321 The Green Party would take measures to encourage a transfer of motor cycle manufacture and use from larger, powerful machines to less powerful ones including scooters and mopeds. These would include setting and enforcing strict noise limits and, for higher powered machines, speed limiters.

TR322 For the safety of other users, the Green Party does not feel it appropriate for motorcyclists to be able to use any priority measures put in for pedestrians and cyclists, including those shared with public transport.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 22:55 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
£1.7 trillion in potential trade deals lost?
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 23:13 - 24 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
The positives aside....

What are the negative costs?


The problem with what yon clown is saying that it's all well and good in fairy land, and it all works exactly as he suggests.

However. I'm involved in the supply chain which sees an awful lot of our military hardware stuff. The majority that I see is with European parts, European standard. The parts are not only cheaper, they're more readily obtainable and more reliable. As an instance, some spares only available from a UK manufacturer, were the best part of 6 months (from vague recollection) late delivered. If we didn't have to jump through the bureaucracy of paperwork mountains required when changing spec, we could have supplied new parts, manufactured in the EU, for cheaper, and much quicker than the wait for the spares. And spares are readily available for the EU parts too.

Hell, we've had some more kit from another manufacturer (UK based), delivered two months late, and then it had to be returns because the identification plates were wrong. Rolling Eyes
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 08:52 - 25 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
So I think we agree that the UK production industry needs to up it's game! 🤣

So - is the only reason you wouldn't order from China reliability? Or cost? Or both?

I don't know about the armed forces supply chain so cannot comment, but everything I need (plastic parts / vacuum forming / injection moulding / electronics / electrical / screws / bolts / rubber components) are all available cheaper from China than the EU.

Ive actually found on a higher percentage of orders than I would have thought - that when I have ordered from an EU supplier, it turns out they have just bulk bought Chinese parts and re-ship them out with a markup.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 10:24 - 25 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
South Korea?
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 10:50 - 25 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Diggs wrote:
South Korea?


Japan?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 13:17 - 25 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
I'll just leave this here:

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/20181017004930805-3.pdf

Summary

US is willing to talk a trade deal with the UK

Summary

Except the US government has some demands mostly to remove 'unjustified sanitary food standards'

https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title19/chapter27&edition=prelim

Summary

US food standards manual

https://www.fda.gov/Food/GuidanceRegulation/GuidanceDocumentsRegulatoryInformation/SanitationTransportation/ucm056174.htm

Quote:
Rodent filth (AOAC 972.32)Average of 1 or more rodent hairs per 50 grams


Yummy.

Non tariff trade barriers can also include food labelling meaning that consumers won't be able to tell where food has come from.



Other things


US is considering moves to block the UK from the GPP/GPA. The GPA or GPP is the Global Procurement Agreement/pact. It is an agreement between 46 nations. Members of this agreement can bid on various projects happening in each others countries. UK contractors that participate in the US market & the amount of $ received in 2017:

Rolls-Royce - $719.6M
Serco Group - $493.8M
Aegis Defence Services - $293.4M
QinetiQ Group - $138.5M
Cobham - $115.8M
Inmarsat - $98M
BT Group - $43.8M

Source: https://www.usaspending.gov


In response the UK government made a final offer this is a PDF of the WTO document.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12u9RTEMUsffFY0Odbv4mKBP9EJKvM0Zl/view

Summary?

UK thinks as a GPA member it can continue under the EU wide GPA agreement.

US says no and

Quote:
the EU’s 2004 GPA commitments-is outdated and must be revised.


We can only speculate what must be revised is.

There quite a few things they could demand access to.

https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/gov-spending-by-dept.png
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 14:37 - 25 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:
... Orrible shit in food .....


Do you think the EU FSA has better bred mice that all go and shit in the corner of the field where there are no crops?

Just because the US has categorised the issue and come up with measures and tolerated amounts, doesnt mean the EU stuff is any better. In fact I seem to remember an article in the Telegraph where there was someone from the FSA quoted as saying something similar.

edit: Found the article
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/11581770/Hair-aphids-and-bugs-the-horrifying-stuff-we-unwittingly-eat.html

Random FSA Person wrote:
In EU Food Law there are no allowable limits of foreign bodies in food and there is no published list of ‘tolerance’ levels of foreign bodies / matter in food. The expectation of food is that it is not contaminated.”


So the US records / checks and monitors the levels of foreign contaminants in food.

The EU just ignores the levels - assuming they are fine.

I dont see that as a negative tbf.
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 15:42 - 25 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
The EU's super food checking process missed this one obvs...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_horse_meat_scandal
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 16:12 - 25 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
The EU's super food checking process missed this one obvs...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_horse_meat_scandal


Examples of failure do not mean an entire process is worthless.

The major point being are that:

Other nations will want other things in exchange for any trade deals.

Therefore they may well be a need for a compromise on ones own standards and ones own institutions.

So in this case good/awful EU ones are being exchanged for good/awful US ones.

Wait a sec! This means giving control over to another nation.

That's anti sovereignty which means any trade deal that isn't ridiculously lopsided towards the UK is unacceptable!
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 16:25 - 25 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
I understand that... 👍

Just countering your comment about the rodent hair etc.
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 16:35 - 25 Oct 2018    Post subject: Reply with quote
Itchy wrote:

That's anti sovereignty which means any trade deal that isn't ridiculously lopsided towards the UK is unacceptable!


Can I ask though... Who exactly are you referencing in the above sarcasm?

Thats not my view and sounds so ridiculous that I expect other than a very small minority of brexiters - no one feels that way?
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Old Thread Alert!

The last post was made 5 years, 186 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful?
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