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Itchy
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PostPosted: 17:06 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
Maybe I'm missing the gist here, but it's a buyers market.


When trade is unequal then the country with the trade deficit has to shrink their economy in order to pay for the goods and services. Shrinkage comes via increases in debt and the money needed to service it. Or by actual being bought out. A PRC company this week is buying up the National Gas grid this week btw.

Germany has been doing this to the rest of the EU. The East has been doing this with the rest of the world. The British Empire did this with the rest of the world too.

mpd72 wrote:

China is screwed if big Western economies reduce their dependence on buying Chinese goods. Their economy is slowing down quite a bit already.


This hasn't been the case since 2011. When the PRC stopped buying US T-bills and has actively started dumping them.

The opposite is true actually. IIRC you're around 45 or something right? At 45 you should remember the presence of Radio Rentals on the high street. Radio rentals existed to rent people radios and televisions. These before 1999 were expensive high end consumer goods. Back in the 90s a 28inch CRT TV cost £300 or more. In the 80s it cost even more than this. So people rented them.

Radio Rentals went kaput in 2003 as few people rented televisions. They instead bought as it made more economic sense. The flurry of cheap consumer goods from the PRC meant inflation was heavily suppressed as it was exported to the PRC.

This ties in with the worst quality of life report recently. While a lot of people cited internet, TVs, phones etc. The things you NEED (housing, education, legal services) cost more while the trinkets cost less.


So if the PRC stops importing goods. What happens?

PRC goes Turtle, again being 45 you will remember the issuance of credit cards and easy credit in the 80s and 90s. This was the western world going turtle. Debt rose massively from then to today. The PRC are preparing for this with socialised healthcare. Loosening of the one child policy.

If the western world stops importing goods, what happens?


All that inflation comes flowing back. It's simple to imagine ten oranges and ten pounds. So £1 each.
Ten pounds and one orange so the orange costs £10.

Now there are billions upon billions (increasing each time credit is used) in the economy. Suddenly remove 25% of those goods what happens. Remove 50%. Then remove 75% what happens?


Same money chasing fewer goods.



While somebody here might chime in and say factories can be built to counter this. Lead times exist. It takes time to build stuff, train workers and put in place machinery. A high inflation environment which would be caused by such an event would prevent all three of those things.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 17:12 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
It does indeed put us in a position of power, although no one seems to have realised that yet.




It only does if you're the only buyer. There are 199 other countries.

Plus there are some pretty fundamental things that need to be bought. Food self sufficiency is somewhere in the region of 55%. A few years ago when Felixstowe closed the UK nearly ran out of food.

Trashing the currency via inflation or devaluation merely means food you produce yourself gets exported as farmers seek the best price. This can be seen during the various Irish famines. Food exports actually increased.


Somebody now will talk about price controls and or export bans.

This exacerbates shortages even more as farmers are motivated NOT to produce.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 17:25 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itchy wrote:
M.C wrote:
It does indeed put us in a position of power, although no one seems to have realised that yet.




It only does if you're the only buyer. There are 199 other countries.

Plus there are some pretty fundamental things that need to be bought. Food self sufficiency is somewhere in the region of 55%. A few years ago when Felixstowe closed the UK nearly ran out of food.

Trashing the currency via inflation or devaluation merely means food you produce yourself gets exported as farmers seek the best price. This can be seen during the various Irish famines. Food exports actually increased.


Somebody now will talk about price controls and or export bans.

This exacerbates shortages even more as farmers are motivated NOT to produce.

So what about German cars? Are they going to be happy losing a fifth of their sales?
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Monkeywrenche...
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PostPosted: 18:04 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
You've got Google, are they all wrong and you're right then?


Probably uses the superior Baidu...Which makes no mention of Chinas economic strife Laughing
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 18:18 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
You're either spouting nonsense or I'm just not getting your point either. How does shrinking your economy enable you to buy more goods and services? Are you saying that we're deliberately shrinking our economy.



Oh you won't like it. In simplest terms it's like going to a pawnshop and selling your stuff and using this money to buy other things. Pawn shops of course don't pay top dollar and tend to rinse you. It's merely less evident as the infrastructure sold doesn't move. While a pawned pocket watch is no longer in your pocket. Instead the name on the ownership (and the ability to extract rent) changes hands.

The exporting country hollows out the importing country. Germany is the exporter, the rest of the EU is the exportee.


Look at 2005 + 22bn (4.4%) great news. But government debt went up 34bn personal debt went up 103bn.

So 139bn of debt was racked up for 22bn of 'growth'? Do you spend £1000 to make £100? It is a good deal?


mpd72 wrote:

These are from this year alone...

Plus hundreds more.... You've got Google, are they all wrong and you're right then?


No because fundamentally it doesn't matter. The banks own themselves. Food security is close to 100% except for Soya. There is also massive untapped internal demand. Japan has been building literal bridges to nowhere for 30 years. This is probably why it is best not to think of China as one country but a union of provinces not unlike the USA, Canada or Europe. The not so wealthy areas can be developed.


Why do you think May announced infrastructure development recently?
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 18:38 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
So what about German cars? Are they going to be happy losing a fifth of their sales?



Maybe they will, maybe they won't. One of the problems with economics as a science is that the human factor that is the irrationality of humans and pettiness of humans is never sufficiently taken into account. Empires have been destroyed and millions killed over completely irrational stuff.


So rationally they don't want to lose 20% of their business and want to continue the hollowing out.

Yet on the other hand the hollowing out may come to bite them back. Greece is often cited. Where they needed bail outs. It was actually German and French banks who needed bailing out.

Or they and other globalists will punish you on some measure in an attempt to bring you to heel. The US and Europe does this all the time to countries they think unfriendly to get them to do what they want. It hurts them but it hurts the other side even more.


Or something else more important than rationality may be at work. So the irrational option is chosen. Amber Rudd for instance wants to cut student visas from 300K to 170K. But wait International students lest they live in the UK (3 years) don't get access to loans. They pony up cash. UoM int students pony up £17K + living costs to study at UoM some pay up to £31K a year. Yet making the immigration numbers fall is the priority so they are willing to cut the 11bn int students bring to the UK by half.



Plus there may be other car buyers to replace the sales lost elsewhere meaning that 20% loss in sales is only temporary.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 19:19 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
They are doing, plenty of Chnese brands about, doesn't mean shit if people want the Iphone branding, that is the beauty of added value production, someone can produce something exactly the same and as cheaply as they like, if it's not got the street cred people don't want it

You're mixing up commodities with added value products.


So let's look at cars again and I just want to stick to facts: Car manufacturing is dominated by brands in countries with higher value currencies. The info on my earlier post demonstrates this is not economic theory but what happens in the real world.

This is generally replicated across manufacturing. The higher the value of the manufactured product, the more important the correlation is from a currency perspective.

So the idea that dropping the value of a free-floating currency to stimulate growth, all other things being equal, is generally false. Rather, it is clear that a high value currency creates an internal market which fuels the creation of higher-value products and services which are then be exported.

Just the prospect of Brexit has shaved approx 20% off our currency value. What will that do to British manufacturing and services and why?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 19:36 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
They are doing, plenty of Chnese brands about, doesn't mean shit if people want the Iphone branding, that is the beauty of added value production, someone can produce something exactly the same and as cheaply as they like, if it's not got the street cred people don't want it

You're mixing up commodities with added value products.


So let's look at cars again and I just want to stick to facts: Car manufacturing is dominated by brands in countries with higher value currencies. The info on my earlier post demonstrates this is not economic theory but what happens in the real world.

This is generally replicated across manufacturing. The higher the value of the manufactured product, the more important the correlation is from a currency perspective.

So the idea that dropping the value of a free-floating currency to stimulate growth, all other things being equal, is generally false. Rather, it is clear that a high value currency creates an internal market which fuels the creation of higher-value products and services which are then be exported.

Just the prospect of Brexit has shaved approx 20% off our currency value. What will that do to British manufacturing and services and why?


Why does Germany do soo well then at exporting high value goods with a piss poor currency?

Not really sure of the point you're making as i know for a fact my dairy products are getting exported more since the devaluation, the IMF said our currency was 20% over-valued, so are they wrong aswell?!
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 20:46 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
Move to Communist China if it's as awesome as you think. You can then spout this nonsense to others programmed to believe it too. Smile


I knew you would do this. It's generally because you don't have a response. I don't need to believe it I can see it.

The UK has sold out top to bottom. A great deal of what you think belongs to the UK doesn't. It is in the hands of foreigners. The interesting thing is you did it voluntarily nobody forced you. Therefore it can't be said that these contracts and sales were entered into by duress.

The National Grid just sold 13bn of assets to the CIC (the PRC) and Qatar.

Last week Skyscanner was bought for 1.4bn by Ctrip (the PRC).

ARM holdings was bought out by Softbank (JPN) The PRC CIC made an offer a few weeks later. Currently being hammered out.

The UK electricity generation capacity is pretty much all run by foreigners. All the new nuclear power stations being planned are going to be owned by foreigners. PRC and Japan.

55%of the FTSE100 is foreign owned.

Heathrow Airport is 90% owned by foreign companies (Spain 25%, Qatar 20%, Canada 12.5% Singapore government 11.2%, Italy 11% CIC 10%)

Weetabix is 60% owned by a private PRC company.

Thames Water is 10% owned by the CIC.

Superdrug is owned by Watsons group. Hong Kong Ltd.

Harvey Nichols is owned by a HK company.

Maganese Bronze the company that makes black cabs was bought out in 2012.

Barclays CIC has a 3% Qataris hold about 15%

BP CIC has a 1% stake

House of Fraiser is now CIC owned.

In 2013 39% of all UK patents were now foreign owned.


Hell even Rob here says his dairy products are being exported. What did I say a few 100 posts ago? That when you trash your currency other people get to eat the stuff you would have eaten.
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Last edited by Itchy on 21:11 - 13 Dec 2016; edited 1 time in total
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 21:05 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:

So what about German cars? Are they going to be happy losing a fifth of their sales?


Doubt it is anything like that high. For BMW it is about a tenth of sales.

All the best

Katy
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 22:19 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:


You think you see it, but then blindly ignore the 100 plus articles on Google telling you that you're talking sh1te. Smile


Funny that because your own beliefs are extremely flexible.


Oh Hillary will win, Brexit will win. But suddenly don't believe them when they don't fit into your point of view.

I've caught you numerous times doing this.

Like the nuclear power thread. Oh foreigners taking over the UK is bad. Yet in a few days later foreigners taking over things is GREAT.

Before this you said clearly to me that the Chancellor is more qualified than me or you about economics. Yet suddenly he doesn't support your position and suddenly he doesn't know what he is talking about.

So which position was it? He's more qualified or he isn't more qualified.

Or are you going to pretend you didn't hold those positions?
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M.C
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PostPosted: 22:30 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:
M.C wrote:

So what about German cars? Are they going to be happy losing a fifth of their sales?


Doubt it is anything like that high. For BMW it is about a tenth of sales.

All the best

Katy

https://www.ft.com/content/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79

About a fifth of all cars produced in Germany last year, or around 820,000 vehicles, were exported to the UK, making it the single biggest destination by volume.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 22:41 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi

To go with that:-

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/ford/uk-2015-car-sales-analysis-winners-and-losers/

Figure roughly equates, but that is for the German marques (including Skoda and Seat, not made in Germany) an ignores the number of 'German' cars made elsewhere in the world (such as the USA). Germany itself seems to have produced ~6m cars in 2015, so the UK sales of German owned brands is under a 7th of German production; take into account non German production and a 10th sounds closer to the truth.

Suspect the FT article (behind a pay wall) is just confusing German brands with German car production.

All the best

Katy
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pinkyfloyd
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PostPosted: 23:16 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

What I think will happen is:

UK Politicians will try and get a good deal from Brussels including trade deals so they can try and convince us that we are getting a good exit deal and nothing will change for our economy.

The EU will laugh and tell us what we are going to get instead, take it and fuck off kind of way and everything will cost more, everyone will complain just as much and we'll all continue to work our arses off with fuck all leftat the end of it.

So no real change on a person to person level. We'll just have to pay more for shit.
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Itchy
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PostPosted: 23:28 - 13 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yawn are you still trying clever?

This doesn't change the fact that you keep shifting your position and you think people won't spot you or call you out on it. I've called you out many times yet you deny it.

You claim both sides are good yet at the same time both sides are bad. Oh devaluation is good, oh look it's gone back to where it was. So wait devaluation is good yet appreciation is also good? Which one is it?

It's almost like the chocolate ration keeps being increased every week.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 00:41 - 14 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kickstart wrote:

Suspect the FT article (behind a pay wall) is just confusing German brands with German car production.

All the best

Katy

That's strange, you get into the article via google (search for 'german cars uk fifth' it's the first result. Seen the figure quoted in a number of places.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 09:37 - 14 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
Why does Germany do soo well then at exporting high value goods with a piss poor currency?

Not really sure of the point you're making as i know for a fact my dairy products are getting exported more since the devaluation, the IMF said our currency was 20% over-valued, so are they wrong aswell?!


Excellent, these are good questions.

So let's look at facts, not 'economic guesswork' for just one of these areas which fits the 'economics 101' model I wrote about.

There is an extremely strong correlation which becomes more powerful, the higher the value of the manufactured product with a couple of exceptions. So the higher the level of the currency, the higher the stronger the internal market which then leads to higher value exports.

However, countries with lower, relative value currencies focus on lower value products. e.g. dairy.

So let's just take one of your points. Where a currency devaluation occurs, the country becomes unable to compete in the 'higher value' manufactured product arena. The internal market focuses on lower value products but which are then exported due to external demands (all other things being equal).

However, lower value products, as you can see, become more expensive internally as manufacturers are exporting. As the country starts to export these products, the expense for the internal market increases so countries are hit with a double whammy:

- Inability to compete at higher levels of manufacturing
- Lower value manufactured products becoming more expensive

So yes, a very good point that lower value products are becoming more expensive internally and not just because of importation.

Can you tell me why these two, observable, 'real world' economic effects take place?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 11:05 - 14 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:
Why does Germany do soo well then at exporting high value goods with a piss poor currency?

Not really sure of the point you're making as i know for a fact my dairy products are getting exported more since the devaluation, the IMF said our currency was 20% over-valued, so are they wrong aswell?!


Excellent, these are good questions.

So let's look at facts, not 'economic guesswork' for just one of these areas which fits the 'economics 101' model I wrote about.

There is an extremely strong correlation which becomes more powerful, the higher the value of the manufactured product with a couple of exceptions. So the higher the level of the currency, the higher the stronger the internal market which then leads to higher value exports.

However, countries with lower, relative value currencies focus on lower value products. e.g. dairy.

So let's just take one of your points. Where a currency devaluation occurs, the country becomes unable to compete in the 'higher value' manufactured product arena. The internal market focuses on lower value products but which are then exported due to external demands (all other things being equal).

However, lower value products, as you can see, become more expensive internally as manufacturers are exporting. As the country starts to export these products, the expense for the internal market increases so countries are hit with a double whammy:

- Inability to compete at higher levels of manufacturing
- Lower value manufactured products becoming more expensive

So yes, a very good point that lower value products are becoming more expensive internally and not just because of importation.

Can you tell me why these two, observable, 'real world' economic effects take place?


Let's start with the facts, post an independent report to back your 'observations' up.

You still have no answered why any of this has to do with branding, your boring texas sharp shooter fallacy doesn't hold up, when you say 'certain exceptions', you seem to jump about on to some other inane question when i stamp on you.

We produce high value, mostly branded goods here, that gets away from the commodities market, such as dairy, which is a main commodity, yet i'm still getting more exports for my dairy, inputs might have gone up, but if you're putting in more than you put out, you're getting less anyway, the same goes for any business, more so if they're making an value added product.

Your assumption is, that these products will become dearer in the home market, because people won't grow their business's anymore and there will be a shortage pushing prices up in the domestic market, find me a business that doesn't want to expand and grow and don't come with some crap about the 1970's , as credit is as cheap now as it ever has been and everyone is looking to grow.
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adriansk
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PostPosted: 11:59 - 14 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you were to move away because of Brexit, where would you move to?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 12:46 - 14 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

adriansk wrote:
If you were to move away because of Brexit, where would you move to?


Most of these fuck head would move outside of the EU!
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