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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Diggs
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PostPosted: 14:17 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
Diggs wrote:
The simplest way to look at it is the oranges scenario. We currently import most of ours from Spain. When we leave, they will be more expensive because a tariff will be imposed and it will take them longer to get to market. This is indisputable.

It's indisputable, apart from the fact it's based on assumptions?


Except that we do import most of ours from Spain, and when we leave we will go from the current situation of no tariff, to a tariff. That is unless our 'deal' involves no tariff, which would make a mockery of a sham of a mockery of us leaving the EU in the first place....

Wouldn't it be odd if people began to think that trading without tariffs is a good idea?
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Ste
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PostPosted: 14:21 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

It would be in neither party's interests for there to be restrictive tariffs which is why a deal will be made that allows trade to continue as normal.

How would that make a mockery of a sham of a mockery of us leaving the EU?
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BTTD
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PostPosted: 14:22 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
Personally I expect it to take over from UKIP, now they've been tainted with the shitty race card stick.


Agree. Farage is the face of Brexit and I'd expect most of that vote to follow him.
UKIP may well stagger on, but I haven't seen them put forward anyone with the presence of Farage. Tommy has a following, but I don't think he has the presence and has been too heavily tarred for wider appeal.
UKIP also seems to implode far too often.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 14:23 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
Except that we do import most of ours from Spain, and when we leave we will go from the current situation of no tariff, to a tariff. That is unless our 'deal' involves no tariff, which would make a mockery of a sham of a mockery of us leaving the EU in the first place....


I am utterly bemused by this. Is it so difficult to know what the intent of "the deal" is from TV/the press? That's a real gen'wine question, by the way, with no hidden meanings.
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 14:24 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps, faced with the loss of a major part of their export market, the Spanish would reduce their prices to compensate.

Business will find a way despite governments.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 14:33 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
It would be in neither party's interests for there to be restrictive tariffs which is why a deal will be made that allows trade to continue as normal.

How would that make a mockery of a sham of a mockery of us leaving the EU?


I agree. That would be in everybody's best interests. Trouble is, the EU won't let us leave on advantageous terms because it is seen as cherry-picking. I can see the EU cutting off its nase to spoil its visage to dissuade other countries from following suit.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 14:36 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

panrider_uk wrote:
Perhaps, faced with the loss of a major part of their export market, the Spanish would reduce their prices to compensate.

Business will find a way despite governments.


Apparently the Spanish fruit and veg sector is on its knees at the moment and is unlikely to be able to reduce its prices and survive. A reduction in demand from the UK could be what kills it.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 14:36 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
I can see the EU cutting off its nase to spoil its visage to dissuade other countries from following suit.

If the EU does that then it would encourage other countries to follow suit.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 14:36 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

jnw010 wrote:
UKIP also seems to implode far too often.


As I think I've said, I was in the UKIP, and made extra contributions to it and "worked for it" pre-referendum. The major implosions have all been post-referendum, since a) its raison d'être has been accomplished, and b) under the direction of the odious Batten, it dabbled too much with extremism, and is now irredeemably tainted. It was always a bit iffy around the edges, like but more obviously so than other parties because of the press attention and publicity.

I would not touch it now, though. I would not touch it with a bargepole. I wouldn't touch it with a disinfected bargepole. I wouldn't touch it with your bargepole.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 14:41 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
jnw010 wrote:
UKIP also seems to implode far too often.


As I think I've said, I was in the UKIP, and made extra contributions to it and "worked for it" pre-referendum. The major implosions have all been post-referendum, since a) its raison d'être has been accomplished, and b) under the direction of the odious Batten, it dabbled too much with extremism, and is now irredeemably tainted. It was always a bit iffy around the edges, like but more obviously so than other parties because of the press attention and publicity.

I would not touch it now, though. I would not touch it with a bargepole. I wouldn't touch it with a disinfected bargepole. I wouldn't touch it with your bargepole.


In your opinion, will UKIP/YL disappear? If this happens, where do the YL mob go for political legitimacy? To the Tories? Can't see YL remaining in the wilderness for too long...
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BTTD
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PostPosted: 14:42 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
Diggs wrote:
I can see the EU cutting off its nase to spoil its visage to dissuade other countries from following suit.

If the EU does that then it would encourage other countries to follow suit.


Perversely this makes sense. EU government making it tougher for countries that stay in, because it wants to hurt the countries that leave.
Well, if you leave you at least get control to do deals with someone else and not spend forever getting told how bad it'll be for you if you leave, while getting shafted.
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panrider_uk
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PostPosted: 14:44 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
panrider_uk wrote:
Perhaps, faced with the loss of a major part of their export market, the Spanish would reduce their prices to compensate.

Business will find a way despite governments.


Apparently the Spanish fruit and veg sector is on its knees at the moment and is unlikely to be able to reduce its prices and survive. A reduction in demand from the UK could be what kills it.


Possibly Spain should be urging the EU negotiators to sort out a deal then.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 15:05 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
In your opinion, will UKIP/YL disappear? If this happens, where do the YL mob go for political legitimacy? To the Tories? Can't see YL remaining in the wilderness for too long...


I was beginning to think I was on your blacklist!

Anyway, I think that UKIP will stay around in some very minor way because there are people who either want a job out of it, or else crave some sort of attention. It could be an amalgamation of the repellant BNP/EDL sort (who seem to be present in any sector of peoples worldwide in some shape or form, unfortunately). The YL mob I don't think would go to the Tories, as they (the YLs) seem to be somewhat left-wing right-wing, if you see what I mean, and I can't see anyone wanting them anyway. Fortunately the noise they make (or cause) is belied by their numbers, which are small. I do not think thay have or will ever have any political legitimacy at all.

Even now I find it quite regrettable that I see the words "UKIP/YL", since efforts were previously made to get rid of the association with such people, and that's now undone. "We" did have several dozen "ethnic minority" candidates pre-referendum, much to the consternation of both papers like "The Independent" (sic) and the BNP/YL types. They were valuable assets and generally decent people.

I've just looked at UKIP's joining page. It still says "I am not and have never been a member of the British National Party, National Front, British Freedom Party, British People's Party, English Defence League, Britain First or the UK First Party. UKIP reserves the right to reject applications or terminate memberships if these criteria are not met", which is good but now rings very hollow.

The new "Brexit party" did have a "register interest" page saying "No EDL/BNP need apply", but that has disappeared from the text. Apparently about 50,000 people have "registered interest"

I wonder what will in fact happen. How we Brexit will be a crucial factor in whether the Brexit party persists. As said, I think we will exit reasonably, and the Brexit party will cease to be.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 15:21 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

panrider_uk wrote:
Possibly Spain should be urging the EU negotiators to sort out a deal then.


There's a good deal to be said for that. It seems possible (!) that the "negotiators" have made too many unequivocal statements to avoid losing face by changing the Withdrawal Agreement, so are very reluctant to take action, but there are other possibilities, e.g. an "umbrella" agreement over the WA, or possible changes to the Political Declaration in the WA that would allow face-saving

Various other nations seem to be in a difficult position, too, with the population being potentially at loggerheads with their politicians on this issue.

Me, as I say; I support having the Withdrawal Agreement.

The two big objections seem to be:

1) The backstop", which like everything else seems to be poorly understood by most people, and which I do not see us being "stuck in";

2) The "divorce bill" of about £39bn, which would be mostly paid by 2021, with smaller amounts paid until 2064. This pales into insignificance when juxtaposed with the value of uninterrupted free trade with the EU and those it has free-trade agreements with, potentally for the next three years, at a value of well over £250bn per annum. It could also usefully considered as a straight-up bribe, whichever.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 15:29 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Diggs wrote:
Trouble is, the EU won't let us leave on advantageous terms because it is seen as cherry-picking.


It is sort-of doing it, though. A straight fee to have unhindered access to the EUSM through the EUCU, and to any markets the EU has free trade agreements with. No extra fees for the duration of "the backstop", should that be used. A free trade agreement after the transition period. Ability to negotiate and start free trade agreements with entities the EU does not already have FTAs with during the transition period.

Don't get me wrong, I do not like the EU machinery (oops I nearly said "politburo", oh I just did, bugger, sorry, slip o' the tongue, sorry again), but "the deal" as it is intended to be is not a bad one.


Last edited by Riejufixing on 16:03 - 11 Feb 2019; edited 2 times in total
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M.C
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PostPosted: 15:42 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
M.C wrote:

Yes brexiteers, short term pain for long term gain Rolling Eyes


Sir, your memory seems to be little less then perfect.

We were promised no pains. "There is no downside to Brexit", remember?
We were promised that if pound ever fell, it was to turbocharge UK manufacturing and exports.
We were promised easy free access to European markets.
We were promised trade deals aplenty all around the world, ready on exit day.

Who is this we? We as in people who voted for Brexit knew what they were voting for, they weren't swayed by a bus or lies from either side. You lost. You are still butthurt about losing. You are still bitching like a sore little loser 2.5 years later.

Even your own list is BS. Most of the 'pain' we're feeling now is because you and your remoaner mates have stalled Brexit in Parliament. Those who export are happier, just the other day there was a piece on the news about a toy company who said they could finally compete with China, but obviously you'd rather ignore such stories. The last two might apply if we'd already negotiated a trade deal with the EU and you know... left Confused
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M.C
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PostPosted: 15:46 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:
If only someone warned us that this may happen... 🤔

It's not exactly the crash Remainers are eager to gloat over though.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/16F93/production/_105599049_growth_annual-nc.png

Also note the global slowdown, unless we can blame that on Brexit as well?
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M.C
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PostPosted: 15:53 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

panrider_uk wrote:
Diggs wrote:
Apparently the Spanish fruit and veg sector is on its knees at the moment and is unlikely to be able to reduce its prices and survive. A reduction in demand from the UK could be what kills it.


Possibly Spain should be urging the EU negotiators to sort out a deal then.

Precisely Confused That's why I bemoan the loss of David Davis, he was the only one who seemed to realise we were in a position of power when it came to negotiations. If JC gets his way we'll end up with Norway-minus minus.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 16:02 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
https://www.thebrexitparty.org/

Now up to 48,500 registered supporters as of 1.21PM.
That's not bad going for it's first day considering I've not seen any real publicity for it yet.

Has anyone got Val's contact details? Smile
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Ste
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PostPosted: 17:05 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
Has anyone got Val's contact details? Smile

Do we know if he's married?

If Val is the first three letters of his name then according to the internet, his name might be Valko, Valeri or Valentin.

He works in IT but that doesn't narrow it down. We need some little details about him, anything to rule possibles in or out.

He lives in Bracknell which could mean Bracknell the town or it could mean the Bracknell Forest area.

Kids? Religion? Hobbies?
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M.C
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PostPosted: 17:19 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought it was Valerie, as in the song "why don't you fuck off home Valerie".
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Ste
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PostPosted: 17:25 - 11 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a girl's name and it's French.
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