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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 15:44 - 14 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
So you're saying that every airline which flies over or to an EU country must have EU owned and crewed aircraft, reaching over 50% EU shareholding? Etihad? Emirates? .


Christ, you really aren't the sharpest tool in the box, NO you moron, to fly over an EU country, the airline doesn't have to have a 50% shareholding by eu member states

No, to fly into, and, out of the EU, again, the airline doesn't have to have 50% shareholding by eu member states

To fly to airfields within the eu, from another eu airfield, then yes the airline has to have 50% shareholding unless there are bilateral aviation agreements in place.

What can't happen, is, say a British Airways flight to Paris, which, then carries out an internal flight in the eu, that flight to paris, can, only fly out of eu airspace, unless there is an emergency.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 15:59 - 14 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even if there is an emergency, would be left up there so that the EU can teach us a lesson for voting to leave Thumbs Up
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:15 - 14 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm still not scared of a No Deal Brexit. You Remainers need to try harder Laughing
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M.C
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PostPosted: 17:19 - 14 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
I'm still not scared of a No Deal Brexit. You Remainers need to try harder Laughing

Whatever happens Brexit preppers will have 400 tins of sardines to get through.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 17:43 - 14 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:
I'm still not scared of a No Deal Brexit. You Remainers need to try harder Laughing

Whatever happens Brexit preppers will have 400 tins of sardines to get through.


Everything we've been told we'll have to eat cos we won't be able to get this or that anymore, I love anyway Laughing Sardines in tomato sauce on toast, with a good grinding of black pepper Drooling (I'll still take it if black pepper becomes unavailable Wink ).
Bring it on! Very Happy

I'm telling you, these spoiled Remainers NEED some hardship - it'll build their timid, spineless characters. Or kill them. Whatever, either way Laughing
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 20:42 - 14 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:
I'm still not scared of a No Deal Brexit. You Remainers need to try harder Laughing

Whatever happens Brexit preppers will have 400 tins of sardines to get through.


And all of our fishing waters back.
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Johnnythefox
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PostPosted: 21:24 - 14 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have tuna and black pepper stockpiled, no sardines though...
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 23:31 - 14 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
The government amendment has been defeated. This amendment was hinting at an extension to article 50 and ruling out a no deal.

The ERP Tories abstained as it could have dragged things on and ruled out a no deal, leaving us with zero negotiating power.

These votes aren't legally binding and whilst MPs believe they are directing the Prime Minister the only thing the votes do is tell the EU it's not getting the deal on the table. The No deal default looks more and more likely because Parliament can't agree on what they want and the EU won't budge anyway. So be it. I just wish we'd invested in No Deal over the last two years. Two years wasted.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 00:03 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
I’m not so sure. I think there’s been more no deal
Planning going on than is being made public.

It went pretty quiet after one of the first votes iirc that was to limit spending on no deal preparations? Hopefully the government have been doing it on the sly although as Jimbo says it's far too late.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 00:30 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
These votes aren't legally binding and whilst MPs believe they are directing the Prime Minister the only thing the votes do is tell the EU it's not getting the deal on the table. The No deal default looks more and more likely because Parliament can't agree on what they want and the EU won't budge anyway. So be it. I just wish we'd invested in No Deal over the last two years. Two years wasted.


The results are very interesting. The government's Brexit motin was defeated largely by the ERG members voting as they did, and so was the opposition's amendment A. The marging for the government's defeat was less than I expected (303 votes to 258; so there's some way being made. The repellent dolt Blackford's & the LD's "Extend Article 50 TEU" (I) was very heavily defeated, as expected, BUT there was some support in Labour's ranks. Soubry withdrew her "government must publish its no deal impact assessments" motion, which, considering what that would have done to our negotiating position, should never ever have been thought of in the first place.

It is entirely unclear what will happen, but I'd guess we will still get a withdrawal agreement (pressure in the EU is beginning to build from below "negotiator" level), or that we'll have a sort of informally-agreed jobbie, the "blind Brexit" or "managed Brexit" I have thought for some time we might get.

Note, it is incorrect to say that "I just wish we'd invested in No Deal over the last two years. Two years wasted", because extensive preparations for that scenario have been worked on since 2016. We've spent about 3/4 of the "Brexit budget" on no-deal, in fact. Publications like "The Independent" (sic) have been whinging about it for ages!
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 00:53 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
Note, it is incorrect to say that "I just wish we'd invested in No Deal over the last two years. Two years wasted", because extensive preparations for that scenario have been worked on since 2016. We've spent about 3/4 of the "Brexit budget" on no-deal, in fact. Publications like "The Independent" (sic) have been whinging about it for ages!

Interesting. Show me.
I would agree with mpd72 in that business has been investing in plans for no deal without quitting the UK. Although they hate doing it they have found work arounds. For example, industries which move materials to and fro to finally produce a marketable product can reclassify intermediate goods shipped between sites, or rearrange manufacturing schemes such that the nominal "site of manufacture" is changed while remaining within the rules to avoid penalties.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 01:02 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

The freight hauliers I deal with at work are on the ball. Well, some of them. Already dealt with the letters of empowerment etc.

Some of the others are just hoping nothing will happen I think.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 01:35 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
Note, it is incorrect to say that "I just wish we'd invested in No Deal over the last two years. Two years wasted", because extensive preparations for that scenario have been worked on since 2016. We've spent about 3/4 of the "Brexit budget" on no-deal, in fact. Publications like "The Independent" (sic) have been whinging about it for ages!

Interesting. Show me.


It's all "out there". AFAIAA we've committed to spending over £4bn on Brexit planning, about 3/4 of which is on "no-deal" planning[1]. It goes back quite a time. A quick look at newsp[aper reportage gives a couple of examples:


4 January 2019

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-cost-government-no-deal-prepare-conservative-divorce-bill-a8711836.html

"Last month, the cabinet decided to start spending the £2bn emergency fund that the Treasury had set aside for no-deal planning as Brexit nears. This forms part of the total £4.2bn of funding"

24 October 2017

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-no-deal-government-preparations-steve-baker-commons-debate-a8018126.html

The Government is preparing for a no deal with the EU with over £250m having already been pledged this year for exit preparations - including leaving without an agreement - a Brexit minister has said.

[1] Straight from the horse's mouth, as it were:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-governments-preparations-for-a-no-deal-scenario/uk-governments-preparations-for-a-no-deal-scenario

Searching for: Brexit spending "no deal" and various additions throws up quite a few hits.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 15:05 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is getting absolutely nowhere.
And still 6 more weeks to go of:
Day 1: TM going to Ireland (Northern/Republic) to talk soft borders/backstop. Ireland says fcuk off.
Day 2: TM loses vote.
Day 3: TM goes to Brussels, EU say nah mate (PS fcuk off).

Why don't the EU ever come here?
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 15:34 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:

Why don't the EU ever come here?


It was us who voted to leave, so it's our mess to clear up.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 16:11 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
bhinso wrote:

Why don't the EU ever come here?


It was us who voted to leave, so it's our mess to clear up.

Yes and no, as no deal hurts the EU as well you would have thought they'd have an interest in making sure a deal gets through Parliament, assuming we hadn't already revealed our bluff Brick Wall
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 16:16 - 15 Feb 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
Yes and no, as no deal hurts the EU as well you would have thought they'd have an interest in making sure a deal gets through Parliament, assuming we hadn't already revealed our bluff Brick Wall


Exactly. No deal will hurt them too, but I think the hatred of the UK beats that, a bit like the whole triple A rating I mentioned last week.

Personally I don't care, I've got more than enough Gammon to keep me going.
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