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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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M.C
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PostPosted: 21:16 - 14 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
adriansk wrote:
If you were to move away because of Brexit, where would you move to?

Greece, would be an eye-opener if nothing else.
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Kickstart
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PostPosted: 00:46 - 15 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
M.C wrote:
Seen the figure quoted in a number of places.


Probably a journalistic game of Chinese whispers. Mixing up German car production with imports from German owned brands. From the link I found earlier there were 910k German owned marque cars sold in the UK. But that includes 63k Minis (built in the UK, Austria and the Netherlands I think), 47k Seats and 74k Skodas. Also BMW build some of their models exclusively in the USA for sale around the world.

mpd72 wrote:
Which means the EU are deciding to pay a tarif on goods exported to their biggest single export partner in the world, who 22 of the 27 other EU countries have a healthy trade surplus with.


Whether the political and economic policies match is up to the EU, added to which is how much they think a harsh deal with the UK would put off anyone else leaving that could also cost them money. And a lot of German brands in the UK are sold for prestige reasons, and as such are not as price sensitive.

All the best

Katy
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:53 - 15 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Project Fear shrieks on: UK/EU trade deal "could" take 10 years, claims UK's "ambassador" (wut?) to the EU. "Privately", which is why it's all over the news.

Or put another way: man about to become redundant points out how much "work" he still has to do.

This is how the State grows: make people dependent on it for their livelihood, and they'll always support it.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 09:38 - 15 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:
Project Fear shrieks on: UK/EU trade deal "could" take 10 years, claims UK's "ambassador" (wut?) to the EU. "Privately", which is why it's all over the news.

Or put another way: man about to become redundant points out how much "work" he still has to do.

This is how the State grows: make people dependent on it for their livelihood, and they'll always support it.


i hope the deal never ends, the economy changes all the time, we have to keep adjusting tarrifs/ quota's etc to make this work the best for our economy.

The bbc spin it like we'll be in the shit though and the dumb fucks all need the sack.

The amusing thing now is though, like i've said all along, that federalist spastic Verhofstadt has been pretty much told he will have Sweet FA to do with the deal and he's proper butthurt about it, same goes for that Bernier guy, it will be down to national governments now and the eu apparatus will have very little to do with such a massive deal.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 10:03 - 15 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rob Fzs wrote:


Let's start with the facts, post an independent report to back your 'observations' up.

You still have no answered why any of this has to do with branding, your boring texas sharp shooter fallacy doesn't hold up, when you say 'certain exceptions', you seem to jump about on to some other inane question when i stamp on you.

We produce high value, mostly branded goods here, that gets away from the commodities market, such as dairy, which is a main commodity, yet i'm still getting more exports for my dairy, inputs might have gone up, but if you're putting in more than you put out, you're getting less anyway, the same goes for any business, more so if they're making an value added product.

Your assumption is, that these products will become dearer in the home market, because people won't grow their business's anymore and there will be a shortage pushing prices up in the domestic market, find me a business that doesn't want to expand and grow and don't come with some crap about the 1970's , as credit is as cheap now as it ever has been and everyone is looking to grow.


You are not 'stamping' on economic facts because real world facts are just that. Real world evidence, not theories.

Let's go back to the economics around the car industry. Why are these facts (data published on an earlier thread and look it up yourself) true? Why is it that first world countries' brands dominate global car industry revenues? Why is it that a higher currency is an advantage? Nothing to do with branding etc..., I'm talking real world macro.

And therefore if this is true, why is the opposite also true about a lower currency? Makes no difference if it's the 1970s or 1770s, exactly the same 'real world' economic effect occurs.

So a reduction of 20%+ in our currency due to a potential Brexit means what for our economy? What does it mean in terms of jobs and money in our pocket? Again, 'real world,' not theory.

The second element I introduced is different - around why lower value products become more expensive to a home market but this is a different concept so I'm just going to park this idea for the moment.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 12:39 - 15 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
gorillaonabike wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:


Let's start with the facts, post an independent report to back your 'observations' up.

You still have no answered why any of this has to do with branding, your boring texas sharp shooter fallacy doesn't hold up, when you say 'certain exceptions', you seem to jump about on to some other inane question when i stamp on you.

We produce high value, mostly branded goods here, that gets away from the commodities market, such as dairy, which is a main commodity, yet i'm still getting more exports for my dairy, inputs might have gone up, but if you're putting in more than you put out, you're getting less anyway, the same goes for any business, more so if they're making an value added product.

Your assumption is, that these products will become dearer in the home market, because people won't grow their business's anymore and there will be a shortage pushing prices up in the domestic market, find me a business that doesn't want to expand and grow and don't come with some crap about the 1970's , as credit is as cheap now as it ever has been and everyone is looking to grow.


You are not 'stamping' on economic facts because real world facts are just that. Real world evidence, not theories.

Let's go back to the economics around the car industry. Why are these facts (data published on an earlier thread and look it up yourself) true? Why is it that first world countries' brands dominate global car industry revenues? Why is it that a higher currency is an advantage? Nothing to do with branding etc..., I'm talking real world macro.

And therefore if this is true, why is the opposite also true about a lower currency? Makes no difference if it's the 1970s or 1770s, exactly the same 'real world' economic effect occurs.

So a reduction of 20%+ in our currency due to a potential Brexit means what for our economy? What does it mean in terms of jobs and money in our pocket? Again, 'real world,' not theory.

The second element I introduced is different - around why lower value products become more expensive to a home market but this is a different concept so I'm just going to park this idea for the moment.


What is the actual point you're proving here? you just seem to be waffling and trying to talk yourself out of the argument.

Lower currency, more exports, more growth, more Jobs, it's all very simple. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/28/imf-currency-study-shows-power-of-devaluation, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/why-the-plummeting-pound-sterling-is-good-news-for-britain-a7353846.html ,why do you, a simple bureaucrat, know more than the IMF?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/euro-area-maintains-momentum-as-weaker-currency-helps-factories

seeing as you have not bothered to post 'fact's - voila! do tell me why Growth, is catastrophic in Gorilla on a bike world? the second element you 'introduced' was bollocks and more of an ideological idea, rather than what happens in real life, essentially, you're arguing from a point of devaluation in currency, while inside the Customs union, once outside the customs union, removing tariffs from imports will remove the increased cost of imported goods, while making exports more competitive.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 15:03 - 16 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rob Fzs wrote:

Lower currency, more exports, more growth, more Jobs, it's all very simple. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/28/imf-currency-study-shows-power-of-devaluation, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/why-the-plummeting-pound-sterling-is-good-news-for-britain-a7353846.html ,why do you, a simple bureaucrat, know more than the IMF?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/euro-area-maintains-momentum-as-weaker-currency-helps-factories

seeing as you have not bothered to post 'fact's - voila!


Wow, so a lower currency means we will be more successful! Wow, why is it that successive Prime Ministers didn't do that? They must all have been idiots and you know better, is that right?

So let's look at what actually happened in the past with real numbers. When our currency dropped in the past, our exports would've cost less because of a lower pound:

Office of National Statistics says BULLSHIT: https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/ukeconomywatch-chartoftheweek-9sept2016-160909192928-thumbnail-4.jpg?cb=1473449427

When sterling dropped, our trade should've increased in the past. Data says BULLSHIT: https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads/2009/12/toft-sterlingeoi.png

So UK trade should be correlated with our exchange rate! Data says BULLSHIT: https://www.tutor2u.net/_legacy/blog/files//trade_gap_june_09.gif

So every piece of actual data states 'BULLSHIT.' So exchange rate drops did not help exports..

In addition, as clearly demonstrated with the data in the earlier thread, the car industry is dominated by countries with strong currencies as is all manufacturing.

Any Brexiter can work this stuff out by looking at economics books and also see what happens when a country leaves a trade block. Start with the 17th Century and work up until today. The effects are identical, repeatable (YAWN)
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 15:12 - 16 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
gorillaonabike wrote:
see what happens when a country leaves a trade block. Start with the 17th Century and work up until today. The effects are identical, repeatable (YAWN)

Can you list three examples from 1900 onwards?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 19:09 - 16 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
gorillaonabike wrote:
Rob Fzs wrote:

Lower currency, more exports, more growth, more Jobs, it's all very simple. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/28/imf-currency-study-shows-power-of-devaluation, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/why-the-plummeting-pound-sterling-is-good-news-for-britain-a7353846.html ,why do you, a simple bureaucrat, know more than the IMF?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/euro-area-maintains-momentum-as-weaker-currency-helps-factories

seeing as you have not bothered to post 'fact's - voila!


Wow, so a lower currency means we will be more successful! Wow, why is it that successive Prime Ministers didn't do that? They must all have been idiots and you know better, is that right?

So let's look at what actually happened in the past with real numbers. When our currency dropped in the past, our exports would've cost less because of a lower pound:

Office of National Statistics says BULLSHIT: https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/ukeconomywatch-chartoftheweek-9sept2016-160909192928-thumbnail-4.jpg?cb=1473449427

When sterling dropped, our trade should've increased in the past. Data says BULLSHIT: https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads/2009/12/toft-sterlingeoi.png

So UK trade should be correlated with our exchange rate! Data says BULLSHIT: https://www.tutor2u.net/_legacy/blog/files//trade_gap_june_09.gif

So every piece of actual data states 'BULLSHIT.' So exchange rate drops did not help exports..

In addition, as clearly demonstrated with the data in the earlier thread, the car industry is dominated by countries with strong currencies as is all manufacturing.

Any Brexiter can work this stuff out by looking at economics books and also see what happens when a country leaves a trade block. Start with the 17th Century and work up until today. The effects are identical, repeatable (YAWN)


You've posted examples in a time when the world was going through a global recession, a currency devaluation will not work in those times, people do not have the money to buy things and exporters keep their margins high to get through the recession and thus, the export price doesn't become anymore competitive, which shows in your graphs why even when currency was devalued, not much changed, until we actually do leave and business does know the terms of the deal, uncertainty will pull back on investments to grow, but going by all the latest figures at the moment, it seems to be going rather well.

You say ''When sterling dropped, our trade should've increased in the past. Data says BULLSHIT: https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads/2009/12/toft-sterlingeoi.png'' did you even look at what you posted? every time there is a drop in currency, the terms of trade increased.


Also, do name a country, in the last 20 years since the WTO came in to it's newest formation,that has left a trade block and completely died a death?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 19:21 - 16 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:
gorillaonabike wrote:
see what happens when a country leaves a trade block. Start with the 17th Century and work up until today. The effects are identical, repeatable (YAWN)

Can you list three examples from 1900 onwards?


He's said it a few times now and when called out on it, he goes in a tefferseque rant about the corn laws, all of which World trade organisation rules have all but cancelled out any benefits of a customs union.

the eu is purely political and the next best thing, the EEA will only ever be a stepping stone for those with a global vision.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 23:14 - 16 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rob Fzs wrote:
He's said it a few times now and when called out on it, he goes in a tefferseque rant

Why do you think I asked?

You don't rattle the cage at the monkey house to provoke a reasoned debate.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 23:53 - 17 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:

Can you list three examples from 1900 onwards?


I can tell you about the subjects I had to cover when I eventually went to Uni:

1. The US. The great depression: Trade barriers turned a banking recession into a depression. The US returned to international trade in the 1950s.

2. China: The establishment of the PRC. 5.5 million people starved to death in the 1950s and the leadership realised trade was necessary.

3. The UK: The Empire Act. Read 'The decline of British manufacturing' which is not an economics book.

Also, look at Germany, Italy, Japan pre-war which put up trade barriers. Russia, post war etc... Argentina, Zimbabwe, S Africa.

The beauty is consistency. Every, single time, economies pulled out of trade blocks, put up significant trade barriers, their economies were damaged, sometimes for decades.

Can you show me the opposite, where any economy at any point, ever, benefited from pulling out of a trade block?
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Derivative
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PostPosted: 03:05 - 18 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Economically? Nothing significant. A few percents here or there. Wake me up when omnibus can afford property and retire comfortably, the media likes to talk about people wearing nicer or worse shoes. One day I'll understand why people care about their 3% raise or "unemployment" moving by 2% or whatever.

Greater leeway on legislation will be interesting. WTD, emissions, surveillance, etc.

The ongoing situation WRT EU citizens right to stay/UK citizens right to work in the EU is one I don't see ending well. Either you have some epic grandfather arrangement that results in pulling up of ladders, or you uproot many lives.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 03:49 - 18 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
There were some interesting issues raised in the questioning of David Davis in the Brexit select committee. He said that EU types keep asking him when Britain is going to u-turn and how/when the government will go about negating the result. Their "negotiating position" should be seen in this light, they think there is still a chance to scare us into staying. Eventually they will realise that Brexit is for real and that the government has no choice but to follow through with the public instruction.

Derivative wrote:
Economically? Nothing significant. A few percents here or there. Wake me up when omnibus can afford property and retire comfortably, the media likes to talk about people wearing nicer or worse shoes. One day I'll understand why people care about their 3% raise or "unemployment" moving by 2% or whatever.

Greater leeway on legislation will be interesting. WTD, emissions, surveillance, etc.

The ongoing situation WRT EU citizens right to stay/UK citizens right to work in the EU is one I don't see ending well. Either you have some epic grandfather arrangement that results in pulling up of ladders, or you uproot many lives.


The UK is not going to be deporting people, though I don't blame Remain for trying to use that as a scare tactic, whilst a backing singer softly whispers "Racism, Hitler".
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 05:33 - 18 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 wrote:


So your example of economies which died are the most powerful economies in the world?

OK.

What do you do as a living again? It better not be something my tax pays for.


Yes, like the US where trade barriers turned a recession into 'The Great Depression.' Took 20 years in each case to recover and the only cure was trade.

Now show me an example of any country that left a trade block and benefited economically. Show me something - anything, that wasn't an economic disaster. I'm open. I'd love someone to show me an actual, real world example because otherwise, we're just left with a bunch of theories which have never worked in the real world (Fredrich List's theories if you want to look them up).
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 07:56 - 18 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
gorillaonabike wrote:
mpd72 wrote:


So your example of economies which died are the most powerful economies in the world?

OK.

What do you do as a living again? It better not be something my tax pays for.


Yes, like the US where trade barriers turned a recession into 'The Great Depression.' Took 20 years in each case to recover and the only cure was trade.

Now show me an example of any country that left a trade block and benefited economically. Show me something - anything, that wasn't an economic disaster. I'm open. I'd love someone to show me an actual, real world example because otherwise, we're just left with a bunch of theories which have never worked in the real world (Fredrich List's theories if you want to look them up).


The countries that left the Soviet Union. Ironically those same countries are now join another failed superstate at gunpoint.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 09:14 - 18 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
gorillaonabike wrote:
Yes, like the US where trade barriers turned a recession into 'The Great Depression.'

Refuted by:

https://i.imgur.com/C2GMWrJ.png

See The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Quantitative Assessment Will Hunting.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 13:55 - 18 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Rogerborg wrote:
gorillaonabike wrote:
Yes, like the US where trade barriers turned a recession into 'The Great Depression.'

Refuted by:

https://i.imgur.com/C2GMWrJ.png

See The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Quantitative Assessment Will Hunting.


Ah, Smoot-Hawley. We covered that in 1st year Economics and it is a case study on the negative effects of withdrawing from trade blocks.

Every economist globally, believes Smoot-Hawley's effects were negative and somewhere between mildly negative to the idea that it turned the recession into the great depression. You've posted a link to a micro paper on effects on US imports, not the effects on the USA's economy and people. It doesn't, for example, indicate that the USA's imports nearly halved but their exports did the same and their economy worsened overall which is exactly my point.

The most recent economics Nobel prizewinner (Krugman), wrote a book on this very topic and demonstrates the counter-intuitive nature of economics. It's a bit like counter-steering. Try explaining that to a non-motorcyclist.

So thanks for posting, now, your turn. Post an example of withdrawing from a free trade block which had positive consequences. Just one - any one at all. I don't know any but then again, I don't know that much about economics.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 14:19 - 18 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Im-a-Ridah wrote:


The countries that left the Soviet Union. Ironically those same countries are now join another failed superstate at gunpoint.


You can try to pick holes in each one but back in the real world, (not in an economic model) when an effect occurs 100% of the time, I start to believe the cause. Every country leaving a trade block has suffered economically

Now, you name a country - any country at all - which benefited economically from withdrawal from a trade block. I can't think of one.

I'm happy to be proven wrong - in fact, I'm desperate to be proven wrong. If you can tell me a bunch of countries financially benefited, I will happily toddle off and look at the maths. But can you think of any countries which benefited economically from leaving a trade block?

Every example in history points to economic problems if we leave and this will make it harder for an ordinary man to make a living. That's my concern.
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Rogerborg
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Joined: 26 Oct 2010
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PostPosted: 14:53 - 18 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
gorillaonabike wrote:
Post an example of withdrawing from a free trade block which had positive consequences.

First, could you remind me where I ever made that claim about Brexit?

We probably will be worse off economically in the short term if the EU behaves as petulantly as they're threatening to do.

Luckily I didn't vote on the economic argument. Your discombobulation is reward enough. Drooling
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Im-a-Ridah
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Joined: 20 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: 18:52 - 18 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Leaving one declining trade block to trade with the rest of the world which is actually growing makes economic sense. The EU is customs union come federal dictatorship.

gorillaonabike wrote:
Im-a-Ridah wrote:


The countries that left the Soviet Union. Ironically those same countries are now join another failed superstate at gunpoint.


You can try to pick holes in each one but back in the real world, (not in an economic model) when an effect occurs 100% of the time, I start to believe the cause. Every country leaving a trade block has suffered economically

Now, you name a country - any country at all - which benefited economically from withdrawal from a trade block. I can't think of one.

I'm happy to be proven wrong - in fact, I'm desperate to be proven wrong. If you can tell me a bunch of countries financially benefited, I will happily toddle off and look at the maths. But can you think of any countries which benefited economically from leaving a trade block?

Every example in history points to economic problems if we leave and this will make it harder for an ordinary man to make a living. That's my concern.


I just named a whole bunch. The countries in Eastern Europe that left the Soviet Union.
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Val
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Joined: 03 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: 01:40 - 19 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
Im-a-Ridah wrote:

I just named a whole bunch. The countries in Eastern Europe that left the Soviet Union.


Seriously? That was not economic block in any shape or form. Ut was political dictature. Not to mention there was no economy either. If you are at the bottom only way is up.

Anyway I am not convinced Brexit will happen. At all. Let say it happens. It will do huge damages to both the UK and the EU economy.

Simple fact is trade works better geographically. The easiest market access for most finished goods is in countries that geography puts nearby you.

The same is valid for manufacturing. This is why there is a Nissan factory in the UK.

Which brings me to the next point. No country is an island. I mean to manufacture you need parts. These parts are going easier to and from your closest neighbours. See the trade point above.

The whole notion that the UK can severe all trade and manufacturing relations with its closest neighbours and partners aka EU, and also to be economically better after that, is just let's say stupid.

The inital thread ask what will happen after Brexit.

Let assume you guys are right and the UK do Brexit. And then?

Here it is:

Quote:
suppose we go over the cliff. What will the right say to all those who lose their jobs and businesses? You can already guess it will blame the Germans and the French. We could have had a good deal, it will maintain as it pretends the world owes us a living, but wicked foreigners connived against us. The xenophobic fury will be cranked up so loud it will drown out an obvious question, which must haunt the Leavers even now: does not responsibility for a disaster lie with the men and women who have led us to disaster?


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/18/brexit-leavers-fear-their-lies-will-haunt-them
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mentalboy
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Joined: 05 May 2012
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PostPosted: 04:33 - 19 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote
gorillaonabike wrote:


Now, you name a country - any country at all - which benefited economically from withdrawal from a trade block. I can't think of one.



Playing Devil's advocate... how do view the result of Namibia's withdrawal from COMESA?
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Old Thread Alert!

The last post was made 7 years, 132 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful?
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