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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 01:05 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mentalboy wrote:
Obviously an attempt at light hearted humour went over some people's heads!
Can I refer you to a small band that goes by the name of The Eagles and the, apparently, little known track 'Hotel California'?
Rolling Eyes


No, I know that one. The saying has been bandied about for a fair while, last used, I think, by Sammy Wilson a couple of days ago. The 12th? It's sort of over-used, in fact. Viscount Astor got a few sighs when he mentioned it in the Lords on the 5th. December last, and it was obviously used well before that.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 01:10 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shaft wrote:
Christ on a bike, I'm not sure I've ever encountered anyone as thick as you, how many times do you need to be told that May's WA isn't leaving, it's counting us out of the EU, but counting us in to all their rules and regulations, what ever they might be, potentially forever and with us having absolutely no say or influence on any of them.

Well, how about arguing your point. No? You won't do it? Go on, have a go!

What is "counting us out of the EU"? I take it you mean "legally fully and completely leaving the EU". That's what will happen if the WA is passed, isn't it.

If you have any coherent argument why that is not so., feel free to express it here. Now, please.
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Shaft
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PostPosted: 01:19 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
Shaft wrote:
Christ on a bike, I'm not sure I've ever encountered anyone as thick as you, how many times do you need to be told that May's WA isn't leaving, it's counting us out of the EU, but counting us in to all their rules and regulations, what ever they might be, potentially forever and with us having absolutely no say or influence on any of them.

Well, how about arguing your point. No? You won't do it? Go on, have a go!

What is "counting us out of the EU"? I take it you mean "legally fully and completely leaving the EU". That's what will happen if the WA is passed, isn't it.

If you have any coherent argument why that is not so., feel free to express it here. Now, please.


What part of my post don't you understand?

Explain under May's deal, how we "legally, fully and completely leave the EU", because I'm all ears, as are all the remainers and all the leavers, because they clearly don't see it that way, or it would've been unanimously voted through, first time around.
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struan80
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PostPosted: 01:33 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brexit postponed indefinitely.

Government - Vote of no confidence

General election while Brexit is on hold

Labour wins, just because.

Corbyn gets ousted

New gadge PM decides on another vote on Europe.

The public takes to the streets, the government go 'fuck that' and leave Europe with no deal anyway.

Did I mention that the people voting against the deal are doing so against the public request and should be hung up for treason and for being greedy bastards.

They are also ignorant to childrens need for cannabis to negate seizures, but that's another story for what grinds my gears big time.

Good evening!
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 01:44 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shaft wrote:
Explain under May's deal, how we "legally, fully and completely leave the EU", because I'm all ears, as are all the remainers and all the leavers, because they clearly don't see it that way, or it would've been unanimously voted through, first time around.


You don't *know*, after all the information that's out there, as well as in this thread? Good Lord!

Anyway.

The leaving mechanism is that Article 50 TEU completes, as does our own EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018. This was to be on March 29th, at 11 p.m. When that happens, we are out of the EU:

o - A.50 (3) says "The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question", these being various Treaties including those of Lisbon, Nice, etc.
o - Our own EU (Withdrawal) Act says: "The European Communities Act 1972 is repealed on exit day".

Only after we're out does the Withdrawal Agreement actually start.

Now, you say "all the remainers, and all the leavers, think this". That's patently not so. Remainers are congratulating themselves that the WA was voted down, for the reason that if it comes in, we have already left the EU. Remainers will not vote for something that gets us out of the EU because they are Remainers! I think I posted about "Best for Britain" a page or so ago[1]. Now Leavers also know this. A larger number than before voted for the WA on the 12th, to try and avoid a significant delay to our leaving, and probable no-Brexit. These included people like David Davis, who is actually a Leaver, I hope you'll agree.


[1] Yes, p.239, Posted: 00:52 - 14 Mar 2019
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 02:45 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mentalboy wrote:


Obviously an attempt at light hearted humour went over some people's heads!
Can I refer you to a small band that goes by the name of The Eagles and the, apparently, little known track 'Hotel California'?
Rolling Eyes


With the Irish backstop in place we will be in a negotiation with the EU where they can dictate whatever terms they like, and we will have a choice to either:
(1) Accept the terms
(2) Keep negotiating

So indeed its called the Hotel California clause, you can check out but never leave.

Or another analogy:
UK: I want to buy that car and I will pay anything
EU: OK. £40Bn of the original settlement, plus continue paying 75% of your EU contributions, France and Spain get 80% of British fish stocks, shared sovereignty of Gibraltar, full voting rights in the UK for all EU citizens not reciprocated, and a 10% financial transactions tax which goes to the EU budget. Or just remain in the EU Smile
UK: Deal!
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 02:51 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

struan80 wrote:
Brexit postponed indefinitely.

Government - Vote of no confidence

General election while Brexit is on hold

Labour wins, just because.

Corbyn gets ousted

New gadge PM decides on another vote on Europe.

The public takes to the streets, the government go 'fuck that' and leave Europe with no deal anyway.

Did I mention that the people voting against the deal are doing so against the public request and should be hung up for treason and for being greedy bastards.

They are also ignorant to childrens need for cannabis to negate seizures, but that's another story for what grinds my gears big time.

Good evening!


Labour would sooner shoot the protesters then leave the EU. London cops would happily gun us down.

https://static.standard.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2018/09/03/11/243976714-armed-police-during-juddmonte-international-day-of-the-yorkshire-ebor-festival-at-york-rac.jpg
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 08:40 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Labour in name might sound like it's all about those who labour, who work and who toil in life but it's not. If it truly was then they'd be doing as the people of the UK want and not wanting to remain.
Labour lost the people a long long time ago - in the early 1980s I'd say.

Would Labour shoot the protesting population? You know what I actually think they would.

My prediction on Brexit now?
EU agree to a short extension - 3 months maximum. May gives even more of the UK to get that extension. By that I reckon May will tell the EU that should no agreement be reached after 3 months then she'll then cancel Brexit and stay in the EU. It's what the EU want to hear.
Some here are claiming it'll give politicians time to sort the mess - no it won't. Remember it gives ALL SIDES time to up their game and this mess will continue until the end of the extension period.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 09:10 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

My latest prediction - EU agrees to the extension on the proviso that Parliament votes to agree TM's deal before 29th March, otherwise no extension and we leave with no deal. Parliament agrees after much public shouting and blustering, but in reality most MPs are relieved that this bit is done. The general public comes to accept it, again after much shouting and blustering, and life goes on for better or worse.

People forget about Brexit as we enter a summer of violence between the IRA v Unionists plus Muslims v YL followers.

We have a general election. Too close to call atm, but definitely not a TM or JC lead government.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 12:22 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
The vote was 334 to 85 against a second referendum, after Labour Party whipped its MPs to abstain. The numbers are of some interest.


Yes, apologies. When I presented those results I hadn't known at the time that the Labour party had been instructed to flounce.
Just why I'm not sure? But I should have realised it just by adding the numbers up and seeing it's nowhere near 650. Even Sinn Fein can't account for that discrepancy!

Nothing will change in TM Turd deal. The EU won't budge, just blame us more. The deal voted on next week will be the same deal, but with the blackmailing proviso "Vote this or you get 2 years more uncertainty"
Sh1t deal is sh1t Thumbs Up
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 13:02 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 CPT wrote:
You're getting worse than Val now with your inane pro EU propaganda.


Wub
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 13:58 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Turd deal is going to be voted for for the Turd time.

One thing i heard on the news from Brussels last night was that the EU "Don't want the UK to leave without a deal".

This is obvious, but the first time I've heard it admitted. Previously it's been made out like the offered deal is purely out of generosity and will benefit UK way more than EU..

They're clearly much better negotiators than us Thumbs Down
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 14:26 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
Nothing will change in TM Turd deal.


The thing is, why do people think it's a "turd deal"? I really don't get that, and I am interested to find out, if anyone can be bothered to post anything factual.

Here are some of my thoughts on it:

First:

1a) Remainers hate it, because if it starts, we've already left the EU.
1b) The ERG hate it because it's not an abrupt break and we're still legally linked to the EU and "we might be trapped" (see (2b)).
1c) Labour's leadership hate it because it's not the very soft Brexit (permanent customs union) they want.

Is there anything controversial or inaccurate there?

Second:

There's concern that we might be "trapped in the backstop".

2a) Despite the fact that the EU don't want us in the backstop, because we'd have access to the EUSM without any budgetary contribution at all.
2b) The Attorney-General has said we cannot be trapped in the backstop against our will. There are several possible legal ways out, and one sure-fire way out, although we might be loathe to take that one.

Third:

People moan that "We'd have to pay £39bn for nothing".

3a) Even though if we left "no deal" we would probably pay half of that anyway.
3b) For that money, we continue to have full access to the EU and its markets as if we had not left: we'd be a non-member state with full access to the EUSM and all markets the EU has trade agreements with. That trade comes to about £260bn/year.
3c) The money could be considered a straight bribe.

Is there anything controversial or inaccurate there?

Fourth:

"We can't make trade deals with anyone during transition" although in fact:

4a) We can make trade deals AND enter into them with entities the EU does not have a trade deal with.
4b) We can make trade deals but not enter into them until the end of the transition period with any country the EU has a trade deal with (about 40). This is because we'd have two different legal trade deals with the same country at the same time, which is unworkable.


Is there anything controversial or inaccurate there?


If you or anyone else cares to reply, preferably on specific points so as not to get lost in a criss-cross of arguments, I really will be interested.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 14:34 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
One thing i heard on the news from Brussels last night was that the EU "Don't want the UK to leave without a deal".

This is obvious, but the first time I've heard it admitted. Previously it's been made out like the offered deal is purely out of generosity and will benefit UK way more than EU.


They've been saying that for a couple of years. If we don't have a withdrawal agreement, then they will indeed lose more overall than us. However, the losses will be spread more thinly, and we as a single country will be hit harder than any single one of their countries in terms of GDP reduction. The worst-hit of their countries would be Ireland, but we'd have it a little worse than them. Several other countries would probably suffer GDP losses of >1%. I think there's reference to that earlier in this thread.

The thing is that if we have "no deal" there will be a fair amount of chaos and carnage. We've currently committed to spending over £3bn in our >£4bn Brexit planning spending just on no-deal (since 2016), and that'sjust to reduce the C&C, not negate it.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 16:15 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just some of the pro-remain/deal arguments I've heard seem over-inflated.

Such as if we left with no deal, All UK food and industry would be dead.

Such as if we left with no deal, markets would crash, chaos and rioting on the streets, huge job losses and a recession 100 times worse than 2008.

Such as if we left with no deal on March 29th, the sun would not rise on March 30th.

Such as if we left with no deal, it's racist. Brexit IS racism.

To put the above into perspective, it's basically implying that the UK could not survive without Europe.


Imagine for a minute it is June 1940. Britain fights on alone. France has surrendered, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Norway over-run. Eire is staying out of it. The rest of Europe is occupied or staying neutral and hoping Hitler might leave them alone.

Crucially, the US and Russia are also neutral. All that stands between Mr H. and picking the rest off one by one is Britain and its declining commonwealth, plus brave men from places like Poland and the US joining the air force to fight for Democracy.

First we saw our airfields picked off, in support of an invasion. When that failed we saw our cities bombed to shit. But if anything it increased the morale of our citizens.

We were strong then, sacrificed a lot, but now we can't survive without the EU? Sorry, rant over Sad
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 16:28 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Really did go full Gammon there. When's the next diversity course?

Sad
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 17:02 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
Just some of the pro-remain/deal arguments I've heard seem over-inflated (snip)


Is that a reply to my post of 14:26 - 15 Mar 2019? Just wondering.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 17:12 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riejufixing wrote:
Is that a reply to my post of 14:26 - 15 Mar 2019? Just wondering.


Not at all no, there are points raised which necessitate a sensible debate. I'm referring to other comments which have been made saying things like
"Without a deal, there will be NO food. The UK will starve to death"
"Brexit IS racism"

etc.

Really?
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 17:15 - 15 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Although I would question 3a)

Why will we end up paying the EU £20billion anyway if we leave without a deal?
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Old Thread Alert!

The last post was made 5 years, 41 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful?
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