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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 16:58 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
bhinso wrote:
Just how Turd is the TM deal? Just like Brexit itself I'm struggling to find clear facts. I know Riejufixing likes it but mpd doesn't.

Things that concern me are stuff like freedom from CAP, European Court of Human Rights, Freedom of movement, whether we will be completely free to make our own trade deals.


The thing to remember is that "the deal", misnamed by media people, is just an agreement (a legal international treaty) for what happens immediately after we leave the EU, and before we negotiate a permanent trade deal with it, so that we can continue to trade with the EU as well as anyone it has trade deals with, as if nothing had happened, but as a third-party non-EU state.

There seem to be several main concerns:

1) We might be trapped in it.
2) We "will be in the EUCU/EUSM/whatever".
3) It will cost us money.
4) "We can't make our own trade deals".

1) We can't be. While there is only one "normal" way out (agreeing a permanent trade deal), there are other ways out. The Attorney-General has said "there's only one way out", and he's also said "We cannot be trapped in it against our will". The whole point of the flaming thing is anyway that it's temporary en route to a trade deal. There's also the point that it can only last a maximum of 3 years before "the backstop" starts, and no-one wants that; least of all the EU, because we would continue to access their single maeket, but at no cost. Zero.

2) We won't be. We will be out of the EU, and so cannot be in those. We access them, and have interaction with the Court of Justice of the EU, *by agreement only*, that agreement being the Withdrawal Agreement.

3) Yes, it will cost us money. Even leaving "no deal" will cost us money; perhaps about half what the "deal" estimate is. Considering the value of the EU markets, say around £260bn/annum, it's not bad value; even considered as a straight bribe to trade, it's not bad.

4) We can make our own trade deals. However. We will be accessing all the EU's trade partners, by agreement, using the EU's trade deals. That means we cannot set up and implement trade agreements with those countries, 'cos then we'd have two different trade deals with the same country at the same time, which is unworkable. So. We can set up trade deals with countries the EU has deals with, but not start using them 'till after we exti "the deal" (transition). We can set up and immediately start trade deals with anywhere the EU has not got a trade deal.

Basically, "May's turd deal" is not actually that bad, and its far better than Labour's "permanent customs union", and far, far better than staying in, if you're a Leaver.

All "Remainers" hate it, because it gets us out! I very strongly suspect that a large amount of the bad feeling about "the deal" has been stirred up and amplified by such people.

Last edited by Riejufixing on 17:09 - 21 Mar 2019; edited 1 time in total
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 17:02 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Ste wrote:
A better deal will be made in the last hours or possibly even minutes.


I do think that is possible. However, it also seems to me that the EU have said so many times "we will not change it" that their people would personally lose face if they did change it, and their egos are too inflated, so I'd guess (yes...) that any change will be an associated paper like the one they tried to get very recently.

There is the possibility that the EU will just throw their hands up and say "no deal", but I'd put that as a very, very, very small chance. The possibility of "accidental" no-deal also exists, but that I think is really tiny too.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 17:05 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
Shaft wrote:
Parliament can't vote on the May deal again, unless it's substantially renegotiated.

Nevertheless, I think that there will be another vote, most probably on the 26th., on an unchanged Withdrawal Agreement.


25th by the look.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 17:26 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
So. How does it work (I think we've done this, but...)?

First, A.50TEU and our EU (Withdrawal) Act BOTH fire simultaneously.

THAT means we are legally absolutely fully out of the EU.

Then the Withdrawal Ageement starts. We are already legally absolutely fully out of the EU.


Yes I think you're right, we have done this before. But then mpd fires back and says it's all bollocks and I get confused (sorry).
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 17:27 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Ste wrote:
A better deal will be made in the last hours or possibly even minutes.


As I said.
Deus ex Machina
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 17:37 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
bhinso wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
So. How does it work (I think we've done this, but...)?

First, A.50TEU and our EU (Withdrawal) Act BOTH fire simultaneously.

THAT means we are legally absolutely fully out of the EU.

Then the Withdrawal Ageement starts. We are already legally absolutely fully out of the EU.

Yes I think you're right, we have done this before. But then mpd fires back and says it's all bollocks and I get confused (sorry).

It's a matter of fact, not opinion. That's how it works.

If we left "no deal", the first things (A.50 and the EU Withdrawal Act) would still happen exactly the same, with exactly the same effect, but we would then have some amount of immediate-disconnect-trade-chaos, despite the fact we've been planning to mitigate that if it does happen.

The thing is, once we are out (A.50 and the EU Withdrawal Act), we are out. We cannot be "partly in" or "secretly rejoin". No other EU state or trading partner is "partly in", either. The only way we could get back in would be to apply to re-join, from scratch, with all the arguments, problems and a referendum on joining that would entail.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 18:24 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
First, A.50TEU and our EU (Withdrawal) Act BOTH fire simultaneously.

THAT means we are legally absolutely fully out of the EU.

Then the Withdrawal Ageement starts.

That does seem like an oxymoron.
What was the two years after Article 50 for, if not to agree the terms of our withdrawal?
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 22:20 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Article in the pink 'un:

"How Theresa May decided she was willing to accept a no-deal Brexit"

https://www.ft.com/content/c1bb68fa-4bed-11e9-bbc9-6917dce3dc62

Still prefers "deal", will have "no deal" if not.

Similar thoughts here, as you know.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 22:23 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 CPT wrote:

How come we'll now be able to ignore Lord Master Bercrow's 1500 year old law this time around?
It really does sound like parliament are making the rules up, moving the goalposts and changing legislation as they go along, in any effort to prevent a real Leave.


because...

" parliament are making the rules up, moving the goalposts and changing legislation as they go along"

Diggs wrote:
Could go either way. Either WTO or no Brexit. It'll depend upon which option Parliament sees as the lesser evil and how many MPs in pro-Brexit constituencies are prepared to risk their seats.

I wouldn't want to be an MP right now...


From what remainer MPs are saying it seems like they would be lucky to still be alive at the next election, let alone standing in them.

Ste wrote:
A better deal will be made in the last hours or possibly even minutes.


This is literally how the EU operates. On the 27th or 28th if the deal hasn't gone through the EU will either offer a short extension anyway, or will ditch the backstop and request to "stop the clock".

ERG are either holding out for this, or trying to force May out, or both.

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
First, A.50TEU and our EU (Withdrawal) Act BOTH fire simultaneously.

THAT means we are legally absolutely fully out of the EU.

Then the Withdrawal Ageement starts.

That does seem like an oxymoron.
What was the two years after Article 50 for, if not to agree the terms of our withdrawal?


UK doesn't leave the EU until the end of 2020 when the transition period ends. The withdrawal agreement governs the transition period while the future relationship is negotiated.
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 22:26 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
mpd72 CPT wrote:
mentalboy wrote:


I could have sworn that Brexiteers were laughing at Remainers for predicting chaos when this debacle started way back when! As someone with the minority viewpoint might I ask why you fuckwits didn't load parliament with pro-Brexit MP's?
I know, let's blame the minority, it's all their fault.... Rolling Eyes


Like who? where are this mythical majority of Leave MP's?

I was always against a Remainer being PM, the public didn't get a choice on this, it was decided internally. She picks the cabinet, she picks who becomes Brexit minister. How exactly could I influence this any more?


The answer, although a tad late for the current situation, is for people to get involved with their local party, the Tory party will always be the party of Lord Heehaw et al until normal folks join their local club and start to influence who gets put up for elections.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 22:50 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
First, A.50TEU and our EU (Withdrawal) Act BOTH fire simultaneously.

THAT means we are legally absolutely fully out of the EU.

Then the Withdrawal Ageement starts.

That does seem like an oxymoron.
What was the two years after Article 50 for, if not to agree the terms of our withdrawal?


The two years are to agree the terms of our withdrawal! That is the "withdrawal agreement".

The Withdrawal Agreement gives us time to agree a trade agreement for the future. The WA contains a document called the "political declaration" which is the skeleton of the future trade deal, which willl be fleshed out in the next 1 (hopefully) to 3 years. When we are out, it will be easier to do this, because there will not be these people effing up proceedings by trying to keep us in.

If things had gone to the plan:

1) We would have legally fully and absolutely left the EU on March 29th.
2) The transition period would have started the next instant (under the Withdrawal Agreement).
3) The future trade relationship would have been established.
4) The transition period would have ended, wit the FTA aking over the next instant.

Edit: The best think I think we can hope for is the above, but delayed by a month or two.

Despite the PM now accepting the possibility of "no deal", parliament will stop that, and you know what will happen then.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 23:12 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Thinking Pale Bounce! Brick Wall Doh!
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 23:19 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Thinking Pale Bounce! Brick Wall Doh!


I wonder what that means.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 23:27 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Thinking Pale Bounce! Brick Wall Doh!


I wonder what that means.

Ha! Sorry. I mean spending the two year period agreeing that we'll leave, and only then sorting out the future relationship during another extended period is bonkers. That's the EU for you, I suppose.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 23:46 - 21 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
I mean spending the two year period agreeing that we'll leave, and only then sorting out the future relationship during another extended period is bonkers. That's the EU for you, I suppose.


Aha. Well, the Withdrawal Agreement does contain the bones of the FTA, and they hope to get that done in a year, so some works has been done. Without all the crap that's happening now, it might be possible. If not, they can extend the year (once), by either one or two years. If that's still not enough, we stop paying the EU anything and go into the dreraded backstpo until it is sorted out!
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Shaft
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PostPosted: 00:08 - 22 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
I mean spending the two year period agreeing that we'll leave, and only then sorting out the future relationship during another extended period is bonkers. That's the EU for you, I suppose.


Aha. Well, the Withdrawal Agreement does contain the bones of the FTA, and they hope to get that done in a year, so some works has been done. Without all the crap that's happening now, it might be possible. If not, they can extend the year (once), by either one or two years. If that's still not enough, we stop paying the EU anything and go into the dreraded backstpo until it is sorted out!


At last, a breakthrough, you've finally seen the light!

The WA does not mean we fully and legally leave the EU, it means we enter into a transition period, the ending of which is governed by the EU, which means it may never end, because that's what they want.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 00:14 - 22 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Shaft wrote:
The WA does not mean we fully and legally leave the EU


Jesus wept. I refer you to my post posted: 16:37 - 21 Mar 2019.

Edit: That's on page 342 of this thread. The page before this one.
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Shaft
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PostPosted: 01:07 - 22 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Riejufixing wrote:
Shaft wrote:
The WA does not mean we fully and legally leave the EU


Jesus wept. I refer you to my post posted: 16:37 - 21 Mar 2019.

Edit: That's on page 342 of this thread. The page before this one.


You mean this one?

Ahem. I do like it, but only for a very specific reason. If passed, it gets us out of the EU. It is far more likely to get parliamentary approval than "no deal", which unless there is a complete change of outlook in parliament will not happen.

So. How does it work (I think we've done this, but...)?

First, A.50TEU and our EU (Withdrawal) Act BOTH fire simultaneously.

THAT means we are legally absolutely fully out of the EU.

Then the Withdrawal Ageement starts. We are already legally absolutely fully out of the EU.

Even Mr Mogg said: "Mrs May's deal, however bad it is, means that we are legally outside the European Union", when he started to come around to it. Mr Davis has already voted for it. I suspect they share my reason (above).


Here's something else Jacob Rees-Mogg said about this 'deal'

Rees-Mogg’s response to a caller saying that May’s deal is worse than Remain sets out the Brexiteer’s dilemma even more clearly. If the UK does not Leave now the political establishment will never allow Brexiteers to even have a sniff of the exit door in the future. The idea that we will get a better deal after a two-year delay is fantasy, Remainers will be fully in control of the process by then…


You can't seem to grasp this concept.

May's deal leaves us outside of the EU only in name; we will have absolutely no say in any rules or regulations the EU choose to impose on us over the next 2 years, we cannot implement any trade deals with any country that also have deals with the EU, we have no control of fishing rights, EU courts, or anything else you care to name.

And even better than that, the EU determine how and when we actually leave, fully, legally and finally; which, just in case you've missed all of this, will probably be never.

Which is why even remainers think this deal sucks, because it's infinitely worse than just ripping everything up and staying in.

If Jesus (whoever he might be) does weep, it's all for you.
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Riejufixing
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PostPosted: 01:16 - 22 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
Shaft wrote:
Riejufixing wrote:
Even Mr Mogg said: "Mrs May's deal, however bad it is, means that we are legally outside the European Union", when he started to come around to it. Mr Davis has already voted for it. I suspect they share my reason (above).

Here's something else Jacob Rees-Mogg said about this 'deal'

Rees-Mogg’s response to a caller saying that May’s deal is worse than Remain sets out the Brexiteer’s dilemma even more clearly. If the UK does not Leave now the political establishment will never allow Brexiteers to even have a sniff of the exit door in the future. The idea that we will get a better deal after a two-year delay is fantasy, Remainers will be fully in control of the process by then…(...)

Which is why even remainers think this deal sucks, because it's infinitely worse than just ripping everything up and staying in.

If Jesus (whoever he might be) does weep, it's all for you.


If you can't even be bothered to try and grasp the concept, living in some stupid cloudcuckooland where law is not law, and that remainers like something that gets us out of the EU, and say that people who've recently said they will support "the deal" over staying in don't support the deal over staying in, then that's up to you, and you're on your own.

Before, you said that I am not worth arguing with. The reason is that you can't do it, not even having either the capability, or the faintest idea about the matter yourself. You can join green-ink man, and I hope you're happy together. Plonk!
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 01:50 - 22 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
^^ Bit of a plonker, Rodney.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 08:37 - 22 Mar 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote
So, this morning's change is that we have been offered a stay of execution until 22nd May if MPs vote for TM's deal. If they don't, the deadline becomes 12th April, by which point we have to decide whether we leave with no deal or extend the period for an as yet defined longer period.

Is it just me, or does that mean absolutely nothing?
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