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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 08:24 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Brexit: What do you think will happen? Reply with quote

I'm just curious as to what any remainers / Brexiters think will happen if / when we Brexit. My guess is:

- We will take a worse trade deal with the EU than we have now.
- We will sell less to the EU
- US and other non-EU companies will pull their HQs out of the UK and relocate to the EU / Switzerland.
- Tariffs and restrictions on financial transactions with the EU will increase
- A significant number of banks will leave
- Trade outside the EU will not compensate for this.
- Significantly higher unemployment as skilled and white collar workers lose their jobs
- Outflux of key workers following jobs in other countries, presuming some kind of short-term passporting scheme in the EU.
- Sterling will drop further, probably 20%
- Inflation due to a lower UK currency
- Our trade deficit will increase (lower sterling)
- Property prices will drop (not a bad thing)
- Real salaries will drop due to inflation
- Less immigration (we will be less attractive)

So what do you think would happen if we Brexited?
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 08:48 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

EEA option thus meaning the same amount of trade, until we sort an arrangement like Canada +

Growing trade outside of the eu to buffer the impact of where the euro zone is going, IE down the toilet

No one is going anywhere, everywhere else is simple crap/ unstable, wrong timezone/ language

Currency will just bounce about according to world events, but hopefully it will stay where the Imf wanted it to be, ie 20% lower than it should have been.

Treasury reckons immigration will go down, but who know's, totally up to the people in charge to make the rules.

I love how remainers have gone from, if we brexit, to we are.
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Last edited by Rob Fzs on 08:53 - 09 Dec 2016; edited 1 time in total
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 08:51 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Abit of an odd post really, did you not see the latest news on Mcdonalds moving their tax base to the UK, because they're under investigation from the eu in Luxembourg , not asif they will get away with paying no tax here, if corp tax is to be massively lowered here, that will cover the burden of any non tariff barriers no doubt, going by the record investment we've had in this quarter, i would trust my analysis.
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Loui5D
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PostPosted: 08:52 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lots of noise, very little actually happening is what i expect.
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The Shaggy D.A.
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PostPosted: 08:58 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the man on the street will be screwed. So business as usual.
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janner_10
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PostPosted: 10:58 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 11:46 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://i.imgur.com/oARrVvD.png

Nothing much will change, de facto. No realistic UK government will actually follow through on anything radical. Deals will be dealed, palms will be greased, swill will keep flowing, and migrants will keep swarming.

Best case, we get de-invited from the Eurovision.
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 12:00 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Soft Brexit:
The UK will governed by fax from Brussels, with no say in regulations. It will continue to pay into the budget again with no say on spending. An immigration handbrake will be put in place on people coming who don't have jobs, but most do, so the flood of foreign types to Britain will continue.

Hard Brexit:
Another short shock for 6 months, followed by tax war with the EU, offering the chance to be in London, whilst also paying lower corporation tax rates. Tax advantages of Ireland, with location location location of New York. Regulatory war also likely, the UK offering a lighter touch on goods and services creating lower costs compared to EU competitors. The UK will end up with big increases in trade and links with non-EU countries as they will not have to compromise for the other 27.
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stinkwheel
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PostPosted: 12:19 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

The EU will refuse to make a favourable trade deal out of huberis and we'll drop to standard WTO terms.

We'll reciprocate with increased trade tarriffs.

Too late, they will realise that the UK are net IMPORTERS from the EU and they've just cut their nose off to spite their face. The Euro-zone will start circling the drain even faster.

Meanwhile, the UK keeps trading with everyone not currently signed up the the eurocartel. Major multinationals start relocating their business centres to take advantage of our low rates of coproration tax and reduced level of beurocracy (Apple, Amazon, now McDonalds).

The UK economy resets at a lower level. Less desirable for economic migrants Higher overall employment levels albeit at a lower rate while the EU continues to prop itself up at artificially high levels.

The European comission continue to press for an EU army and succeed now the UK has left, taking its veto with it.

Russia pushes its luck and overtly invades a former Sov-block country.

Germany moves that the EU army should move in and retake it.

France disagrees, elects a borderline anarchist government and pulls out of the EU.

The EU shatters. Economic pressures they haven't dealt with becomes a tidal wave, euro-economy collapses, Germany decides to use force to hold it all together.

Third European war.

Meanwhile in Asia, while backs are turned Chinan invades Taiwan. Skirmishes start on the India Pakistan border. North Korea nukes Seoul. America moves in to enforce the DMZ.

Iraq and Syria loose the battle and degenerate into a caliphate. They invade Iran. The new Islamic superstate swarms through Jordan and occupies the power vacuum in Lebanon. Egypt stands mute while they invade Israel... Israel has no reply other than to nuke Damascus.

De-facto world war 3.

America are already overextended in Asia. The middle East is left to itself and becomes a post apocalyptic wasteland with no system of government. the only thing that will save it now is a new messiah. The Constantinople barrier is built, warships interdict the Agean.

The massive influx of displaced Jews and Arabs into Europe across highly permeable borders stalls the internal European conflict. They realise they have bigger fish to fry. An uneasy peace breaks out as each country tries to deal with the internal problems of a 50% increase in their population.

Meanwhile on the Eastern Front. The former Sov block countries realise they're going to have to sort this out themselves, rally as one allied superstate and force Russia back behind its borders. Russia realises it can't have its own way in the face of this pressure but is sensible enough not to use the nuclear option.

Europe resolves into a united East and fragmented and bickering West Europe.

Emperor Trump is finally assasinated after overstaying his term by 10 years. An alliance is formed with China who realise all its customers have stopped buying and put pressure on North Korea to sort its shit out while America holds the DMZ. China eventually gets sick of it and invades NK by land in massive numbers resulting in NK being engulfed into the peoples repiblic. The border stabilises.

Here we sit on our little island. Holding the line until, once again, we can get together with the US and go rescue Europe.

Without brexit... All the above will happen anyway, just we'll be caught up in the middle of it.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 13:33 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Re: Brexit: What do you think will happen? Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
I'm just curious as to what any remainers / Brexiters think will happen if / when we Brexit. My guess is:

- We will take a worse trade deal with the EU than we have now.
- We will sell less to the EU
- US and other non-EU companies will pull their HQs out of the UK and relocate to the EU / Switzerland.
- Tariffs and restrictions on financial transactions with the EU will increase
- A significant number of banks will leave
- Trade outside the EU will not compensate for this.
- Significantly higher unemployment as skilled and white collar workers lose their jobs
- Outflux of key workers following jobs in other countries, presuming some kind of short-term passporting scheme in the EU.
- Sterling will drop further, probably 20%
- Inflation due to a lower UK currency
- Our trade deficit will increase (lower sterling)
- Property prices will drop (not a bad thing)
- Real salaries will drop due to inflation
- Less immigration (we will be less attractive)

So what do you think would happen if we Brexited?


I'll tell you what will happen, even if things start looking positive, Remoaners will still be predicting Armageddon and desperately hoping for doom and gloom.

Laughing
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 13:36 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:

Best case, we get de-invited from the Eurovision.


It would be taking the p1ss a bit with Australia and Israel still in though. Smile
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M.C
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PostPosted: 14:26 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

... Val will continue to be butthurt. Do we not already have a topic for this?
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 16:28 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:

Best case, we get de-invited from the Eurovision.


That means not taking British taxpayers money from the BBC Wink
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Ribenapigeon
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PostPosted: 17:24 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Re: Brexit: What do you think will happen? Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
I'm just curious as to what any remainers / Brexiters think will happen if / when we Brexit. My guess is:........................................................................blahh de blahh



You forgot to put in.

All those who voted for leaving will suddenly start wearing black uniforms with a skull motife on their caps and swastika armbands and start rounding up anyone who voted to stay and sending them off to concentration camps in west wales.
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barrkel
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PostPosted: 23:11 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
The EU will refuse to make a favourable trade deal out of huberis and we'll drop to standard WTO terms.

We'll reciprocate with increased trade tarriffs.

Unsurprisingly, WTO has rules about tariffs. Parliament won't be sovereign here. You can't have international trade without international arbitrators.

Quote:
Too late, they will realise that the UK are net IMPORTERS from the EU and they've just cut their nose off to spite their face. The Euro-zone will start circling the drain even faster.

This is just delusional. The EU has much more leverage here because it's a much larger market. The UK has a much bigger dependency on the UK as a proportion of its economy than the other way around.

For my part, if the UK does indeed Brexit, I'll be leaving too. If I lived outside the UK, there is literally nothing I would import apart from indirectly consuming finance. All the best things in this country are imported.

I think Britain will muddle on with lower growth / mild recession, the quality of food and services will decline further, and the long-term prospects will be poor owing to the weak education system and hostile atmosphere for immigration.

The real problem is globalization. It won't be reversed, and it's hard to see a positive outcome from the current inequality ratchet of international capitalism. The people voting for Trump and Brexit both are voting against their own interests and in protest of a system that their politicians can't change. The global situation is going to get interesting, not in a good way. I think it'll be very unpredictable. The current model will break down eventually, but it will resist, so the change may be explosive. China will probably be involved.
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Suntan Sid
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PostPosted: 23:18 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

The remaining EU member states will give the UK as much of a kicking as they think they can get away with!
There'll be a lot of whining from some brexiteers, when they realise that a lot of the legislation they thought was imposed by the EU, actually wasn't!
The UK will still be beholding to the ECourtHR and still be bound by EConventionHR!
No laws/statues/rules will be repealed!
Illegal immigration will continue unabated!
Austerity will be extended, taxes will rise, energy costs will go through the, fcukin', roof, and inflation will rise!
Cheap food will become a thing of the past!
The money saved by not paying the EU subs will not be spent on the NHS, as alluded to, it will be syphoned off into the, very, deep pockets of the same city slickers/fat cats/party donors who caused the 2008 crash!
The man on the street will see no benefit whatsoever, from the £350M per week!
Governments will continue engineering ways to ensure that the gap between the rich and everyone else continues to increase!
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 23:37 - 09 Dec 2016    Post subject: Re: Brexit: What do you think will happen? Reply with quote

Ribenapigeon wrote:
gorillaonabike wrote:
I'm just curious as to what any remainers / Brexiters think will happen if / when we Brexit. My guess is:........................................................................blahh de blahh



You forgot to put in.

All those who voted for leaving will suddenly start wearing black uniforms with a skull motife on their caps and swastika armbands and start rounding up anyone who voted to stay and sending them off to concentration camps in west wales.


Where as those who want to stay in the Federal state of Germany will be the anti-nazis? Righto
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 09:23 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

barrkel wrote:
stinkwheel wrote:
The EU will refuse to make a favourable trade deal out of huberis and we'll drop to standard WTO terms.

We'll reciprocate with increased trade tarriffs.

Unsurprisingly, WTO has rules about tariffs. Parliament won't be sovereign here. You can't have international trade without international arbitrators.



Laughing Who do you think sets these rules? Countries come together and slog it out over what rules/regulations/ specifications all suite them and then they put out as terms of the trade together, funnily enough, which now, the EU is subordinate to this system now.

The British government will sit round the table at the WTO, such as what Liam Fox is signing up for now, and then British business point out a set of reforms/ specifications they would like to see and the government goes to the WTO, or Unece or Codex etc etc and puts these view points across, the current situation is we try this with the Eu and it get's diluted in to very thin gruel once the eu sits at the wto table.

There's a middle ground between being sovereign and being someones bitch, leaving the EU will be that middle ground on trade.

http://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/how-to-stop-being-wrong-about-single.html


Other than some romantic view of all Europeans coming together, the eu is fucking finished.
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nowhere.elysium
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PostPosted: 10:36 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

stinkwheel wrote:
A near-future dystopia paperback plot that I would totally read the shit out of


Assuming we go through with the Brexit (which I'm still waiting to see what May actually thinks she'll successfully carry off), the main result will be the ennui of France and Germany, who will use this as a means to punish us for bailing out of their dreams of a glorious future.

An EEA agreement is about the best we can hope for, when dealing with the Euro trade bloc, which means we'll be paying about the same but without having a voice when it comes to making the rules. We also won't get any of the funding thrown our way that a lot of people seem happy to ignore - things like research, civic projects, infrastructural subsidies and so forth. I honestly do not believe for a second that there will be anywhere near as much money pushed into these areas when the EU fiscal teat is removed. The UK government (regardless of which colour tie it's wearing) simply does not have a good track record of pumping resources into speculative fields (i.e. anything that requires thinking beyond the next election) - that's the one real advantage of an external federalist investor: their idea of timelines is completely different.
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mpd72
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PostPosted: 10:51 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

barrkel wrote:


For my part, if the UK does indeed Brexit, I'll be leaving too..


Yeah, of course you will. Like all the junior doctors who were leaving for New Zealand.

Maybe you could head to mainland Europe, then you could come back when that goes tits up eh? Wink
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 12:05 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

nowhere.elysium wrote:
stinkwheel wrote:
A near-future dystopia paperback plot that I would totally read the shit out of


Assuming we go through with the Brexit (which I'm still waiting to see what May actually thinks she'll successfully carry off), the main result will be the ennui of France and Germany, who will use this as a means to punish us for bailing out of their dreams of a glorious future.

An EEA agreement is about the best we can hope for, when dealing with the Euro trade bloc, which means we'll be paying about the same but without having a voice when it comes to making the rules. We also won't get any of the funding thrown our way that a lot of people seem happy to ignore - things like research, civic projects, infrastructural subsidies and so forth. I honestly do not believe for a second that there will be anywhere near as much money pushed into these areas when the EU fiscal teat is removed. The UK government (regardless of which colour tie it's wearing) simply does not have a good track record of pumping resources into speculative fields (i.e. anything that requires thinking beyond the next election) - that's the one real advantage of an external federalist investor: their idea of timelines is completely different.


Honestly Gerry, it's all well and good saying EEA interim option, and then not using the internet to research it.

Payments - https://fullfact.org/europe/norway-eu-payments/ Norway payments are completely different to ours, for one they do not pay in to the main EU budget, they pay a sort of foreign aid budget towards poorer countries in the eu, they also pay towards such schemes as Erasmus, and no doubt towards inter state programs such as customs controls, goods etc, what they do not do is what we do, pay in a massive net payment for the fun of it.

Law's and regulation - http://www.unece.org/info/ece-homepage.html,http://www.fao.org/fao-who-codexalimentarius/en/, https://www.wto.org/ << these are the forums that make the rules now, not the EU anymore, the eu sits at their table, on our behalf and suggests what standards and regulations to enforce on products, When we leave the Eu, we will sit at this table ourselves, this pay and no say is remainer lies that is out of date, the Eu is subordinate to these organisations now, just look up any directive and see how many regulations come from Unece, the vast majority, while the eu add's on bits that we already comply with.

Our government has been asleep at the wheel, ofcourse they're not going to pay out if they don't have to if someone else is doing it, once the power comes back to Westminster, this complacency will have to change our they will risk being voted out for another party, inb4 they're all the same, when was the last time a main party pledged 500 billion infrastructure investment? not in my lifetime but that is what labour are now offering and it will be the local councils etc that apply for this funding.

I seriously suggest you and many others in this thread watch flexcit and get up to speed with what is going on >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HrIdJfMUcM

Hard brexit is bollocks and remainers talking down the EEA option will get hard brexit.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 14:07 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

BrexEconomics 101: Imagine Triumph if we Brexit.

- Our currency drops (which is has done already)
- Triumph sells more motorcycles internationally because the currency is lower
- Triumph sells more motorcycles in the UK because the currency is lower and tariffs prevent foreign competition.
- Triumph wins. Britain wins. Britain is great again.

Easy, right? Remove ourselves from the nasty EU therefore devaluing sterling, make our products cheaper and hey presto, we will dominate the manufacturing world!

But hold on a second, why is it that China or India with incredibly low costs, skilled workforces and great trade links aren't dominating the car industry? Why is the car industry, for example, dominated by countries with high costs, strong currencies and expensive workforces? Why is it that in the 'real world,' the opposite occurs?

Does anyone, particularly Brexiters, know why this is?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry#/media/File:2014_Cars_Countries_Export_Treemap.png
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nowhere.elysium
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PostPosted: 14:10 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

You seem to have misread the tone of my post. I'm not talking down the idea of an EEA agreement - when I said that it's the best we can hope for, I meant exactly that - it is the best possible outcome. I for one never particularly liked the idea of being part of a federalised legal system, although I do understand how it came to be, and why. Regarding the monetary aspect of things, I'd need to see multiple sources to buy any set of numbers that are presented, thanks to statistics being readily re-presentable to make near enough any point. Not attacking you/your choice of sources, I just tend to be very leery of statistics, especially when used in such an evocative subject as this - even the page that you linked said that it's pretty hard to work out the exact figures, because they're so convoluted.

The locally-sourced funding for infrastructural development, well, I'll believe it when I see it. If it does materialise, then I think that the political parties are going to have some very hard questions asked of them as to where this kind of financial throw-weight has been all along.

I know that the EU has to negotiate with/answer to the WTO, but there's the bonus element to EU membership that a lot of people seem to forget - we (and every other EU state) effectively gets two votes on every WTO motion. There's still the aspect of unionisation that works well in trade (when operated cohesively) - having a voting bloc working together can achieve a lot.

We've demonstrated neatly that the EU doesn't vote cohesively, so no, I'm not going to beat the drum of "Doom, Gloom and Ignominity" - we've got Itchy for that sort of thing. I think that the EU is failing, and desperately needs reform, and that it would have been easier to achieve that from the inside than from without. We're not going to be stronger on the world stage by standing alone, but we may be able to more aggressively support ourselves. It's not guaranteed, but it's an opportunity, and as I said in the original Leave/Remain thread back in June, I'm all about working with what we've got to do the best we can, regardless of the direction the voting public decided to take.
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M.C
World Chat Champion



Joined: 29 Sep 2015
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PostPosted: 17:51 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
BrexEconomics 101: Imagine Triumph if we Brexit.

- Our currency drops (which is has done already)
- Triumph sells more motorcycles internationally because the currency is lower
- Triumph sells more motorcycles in the UK because the currency is lower and tariffs prevent foreign competition.
- Triumph wins. Britain wins. Britain is great again.

Easy, right? Remove ourselves from the nasty EU therefore devaluing sterling, make our products cheaper and hey presto, we will dominate the manufacturing world!

But hold on a second, why is it that China or India with incredibly low costs, skilled workforces and great trade links aren't dominating the car industry? Why is the car industry, for example, dominated by countries with high costs, strong currencies and expensive workforces? Why is it that in the 'real world,' the opposite occurs?

Does anyone, particularly Brexiters, know why this is?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry#/media/File:2014_Cars_Countries_Export_Treemap.png

It won't have anything to do with the quality of the vehicles being produced, will it?
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gorillaonabik...
Nearly there...



Joined: 31 Jul 2011
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PostPosted: 18:17 - 10 Dec 2016    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
gorillaonabike wrote:
BrexEconomics 101: Imagine Triumph if we Brexit.

- Our currency drops (which is has done already)
- Triumph sells more motorcycles internationally because the currency is lower
- Triumph sells more motorcycles in the UK because the currency is lower and tariffs prevent foreign competition.
- Triumph wins. Britain wins. Britain is great again.

Easy, right? Remove ourselves from the nasty EU therefore devaluing sterling, make our products cheaper and hey presto, we will dominate the manufacturing world!

But hold on a second, why is it that China or India with incredibly low costs, skilled workforces and great trade links aren't dominating the car industry? Why is the car industry, for example, dominated by countries with high costs, strong currencies and expensive workforces? Why is it that in the 'real world,' the opposite occurs?

Does anyone, particularly Brexiters, know why this is?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry#/media/File:2014_Cars_Countries_Export_Treemap.png

It won't have anything to do with the quality of the vehicles being produced, will it?


Yes, and how is it that countries with stronger currencies are able to produce higher, quality vehicles? What is the relationship between a better, performing currency and the quality of vehicle produced?
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FZR400 (blown engine), ZXR750 (blown engine), ZX6R (accident), CBR600 which had engine issues after which I learned to change gear..., CBR900, CBR924 (stolen), CB600, CB1300 (everything blew up), BMW K1300GT (written off, hit from rear while stationary), Bandit 1250 for a couple of months, Triumph Sprint ST 1050 (nicked) and somewhere in there, I wrote off a Ducati 748 at Cadwell.
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The last post was made 1 year, 5 days ago. Instead of replying here, would creating a new thread be more useful?
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