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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 17:13 - 14 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:

There's optimism ("I'll work hard and hopefully get ahead") and there's daydream ("I'll jump from the bridge and gracefully bounce off the surface"). There's no evidence of anything that optimism can improve in Brexit.

What I'm saying is "if something is hard to do and chances of success are very low, it's not worth rushing into."

You said 10-20. Hope for the best, plan for the worst - risk management 101.


Not in my eyes.


Now we can throw opinions at each other 'til kingdom come, but some things aren't a matter of opinion or point of view.

The reality is that we're leaving the biggest FTA in the world, one that accounts for about half of our international trade. As of today this will happen at the end of 2020, and we have very little to compensate for that (no, optimism and Dunkirk Blitz 1966 spirit of Robin Hood don't count as compensation).
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 17:53 - 14 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
And if by some sort of miracle, we ever did leave the EU and the single market, how long do you think the EU would take to make damn sure they had tariff free access to the largest single market in Europe. One which is has a healthy trade surplus with?

Panic! Arrrgh! Armageddon?!

Rolling Eyes


CETA took ~13 years; I think a FTA is achievable within this ballpark, optimistically.

Note also that after UK's departure EEA will still be the largest single market in Europe.
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 17:59 - 14 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I believe we will get trade agreements in place to replace the SM and they will end up better overall than the deal we are stagnating in now.

So yes, that is still an opinion.

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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 19:27 - 14 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
Well, I believe we will get trade agreements in place to replace the SM and they will end up better overall than the deal we are stagnating in now.


Did you believe it also in 2016? If yes, how has the failure to progress towards such agreements during the last 3.5 years affected your belief?
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Hawkeye1250FA
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PostPosted: 23:19 - 14 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

What mpd said.

Negotiations "proper" will start after we leave.

I do expect that a lot of back door discussions have been had with other nations and that there is a lot more in the "ready to go" pot than we are led to believe by the media.

Let's see what happens 6 months after we are actually out. If nothing has happened that shows real progress towards new trade agreements (ste as adjudicator) - you have my permission to quote this message and give me a massive I told you so.

I will then post a Snapchat filtered video of your choice saying cdlxxvi was right and I was wrong.

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Ste
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PostPosted: 00:19 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
CETA took ~13 years; I think a FTA is achievable within this ballpark, optimistically.

That is a very nice example of just how unnecessarily long and drawn out negotiations involving the EU can be.

There's no reason why anything needs to take that long, 13 years is a fucking joke.
Hawkeye1250A wrote:
I do expect that a lot of back door discussions have been had with other nations and that there is a lot more in the "ready to go" pot than we are led to believe by the media.

Very much that. The EU might want their economy to grind to a halt for however many years but the rest of the world is more than happy to work things out sensibly so there are mutually beneficial deals in place very quickly.

Why doesn't that happen with the EU? Farage and Boris were able to make their agreement without any delay, that's how things are meant to work, that's how things work until there's an unwieldy behemoth like the EU involved in the negotiations.
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Shaft
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PostPosted: 01:40 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
Hawkeye1250FA wrote:
Its called optimism Smile

You are adding the "maybe"


And (to para-phrase), you are basically saying (correct me if you wish)...

"If something is hard to do, its not worth doing."

Which to me is absurd.


corrections:
I also wouldnt call 20 years "half a generation" - at most its a quarter.
You conveniently picked the upper level of what I said as well. 10-20.


There's optimism ("I'll work hard and hopefully get ahead") and there's daydream ("I'll jump from the bridge and gracefully bounce off the surface"). There's no evidence of anything that optimism can improve in Brexit.

What I'm saying is "if something is hard to do and chances of success are very low, it's not worth rushing into."

You said 10-20. Hope for the best, plan for the worst - risk management 101.


For all his faults, MPD made a very important point earlier - now we've pissed them off, what makes you think that staying in will restore the status quo?

At this stage, remaining won't mean us resetting the clock to pre referendum, we will forever be the outsider.

Preaching the remainer creed isn't enough, now you have to prove why reversing the vote will be better, because it doesn't mean the same thing it did before the vote.

So (I'm sure I've asked this before and didn't get a proper answer) what's your proof?
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 09:29 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
So you think we’re allowed to negotiate our own trade deals whilst we’re still an EU member?

Really? News to me.


I'm chuffed to help you learn!
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 09:49 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shaft wrote:


For all his faults, MPD made a very important point earlier - now we've pissed them off, what makes you think that staying in will restore the status quo?

At this stage, remaining won't mean us resetting the clock to pre referendum, we will forever be the outsider.

Preaching the remainer creed isn't enough, now you have to prove why reversing the vote will be better, because it doesn't mean the same thing it did before the vote.

So (I'm sure I've asked this before and didn't get a proper answer) what's your proof?


There's no evidence of anything about to change in the important (legal, economic) areas should we stay in EU. Law is law; everything else is speculation.

Should we speculate, though, the evidence so far is that EU is not an easily angered creature; even genuine menaces like Orban get seemingly infinite patience and appeasement. If we try to throw more hysterics and exceptionalism they may be just ignored with a "well you know the way out", but any hostility is very unlikely.
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Polarbear
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PostPosted: 11:03 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shaft wrote:


For all his faults, MPD made a very important point earlier - now we've pissed them off, what makes you think that staying in will restore the status quo?

At this stage, remaining won't mean us resetting the clock to pre referendum, we will forever be the outsider.

Preaching the remainer creed isn't enough, now you have to prove why reversing the vote will be better, because it doesn't mean the same thing it did before the vote.

So (I'm sure I've asked this before and didn't get a proper answer) what's your proof?


What's to stop us trying to leave later either, even if we voted in the Libdems now and they revoke article 50.

I reckon somehow they will try to force us to join the Euro. If they don't tie us in completely there is no point having us at all, we'll just be a troublesome thorn in their backside.
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Diggs
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PostPosted: 11:25 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:


Politics in this country is won and lost now on money and propaganda.


Its been this way ever since the great unwashed learned to read...

The difference now however is the range of views we as an electorate are presented with, and the speed at which information is disseminated.
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cdlxxvi
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PostPosted: 12:26 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
cdlxxvi wrote:


I'm chuffed to help you learn!


Ahem, I presume you've realised that the only deals we've been allowed to agree, are only to countries the EU doesn't have an FTA with?


That is not true. The current gov.uk list includes countries (Norway, Israel to name a couple) EU has FTAs with.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 14:33 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
Should we speculate, though, the evidence so far is that EU is not an easily angered creature; even genuine menaces like Orban get seemingly infinite patience and appeasement. If we try to throw more hysterics and exceptionalism they may be just ignored with a "well you know the way out", but any hostility is very unlikely.


OMG I haven't laughed so much in ages Laughing
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redeem ouzzer
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PostPosted: 15:05 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm here to protest, right, 'cause I'm going on a march 'cause I want Britain to be back British. I want Britain to be back British. We've got interracial law, and the Muslamic infidel, they're trying to get their law over our country. And it's happening, it is happening. It's happening in other countries. Everything... it's happening in every country, it's like... every, like, you've got, you've got the Iraqi law that they've put, they've put down in, in London. Like, we're more or less near London today. But they're trying to put the Iraqi law down on, on, on London, trying to put... they're just trying to put their, their law down on us. And we, we can't stand for that.
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 17:08 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forced wrote:
And we, we can't stand for that.


In that case I suggest sitting down. Deep breaths, maybe a glass of water.
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linuxyeti
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PostPosted: 19:18 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:


Mock all you like. The Islamification of Britain is well under way and they have no interest what so ever in integrating to our way of life.
Eventually all will realise this, it's just that some are brain washed to resit the truth until it stabs them in the face or blows up or rapes their children.


F**k me, I see you've elevated yourself to prophet status !!

https://cdn.bcf.44bytes.net/files/6317733.jpg

Is there no end to your delusion?
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 23:48 - 15 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Delusional is a bit strong. Spend an afternoon wandering around Southall and you might wonder which country you're in.

Having said that the number of East Europeans in my area has gone up considerably in the last few years - they like the area because it's mostly white apparently - at least they like beer and a laugh... and speak a bit more English.

<addendum> Thinking back on work today I have to comment I only spoke to one English person out of ~50 calls. The joys of multicultural London Smile
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Shaft
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PostPosted: 01:19 - 16 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdlxxvi wrote:
Shaft wrote:


For all his faults, MPD made a very important point earlier - now we've pissed them off, what makes you think that staying in will restore the status quo?

At this stage, remaining won't mean us resetting the clock to pre referendum, we will forever be the outsider.

Preaching the remainer creed isn't enough, now you have to prove why reversing the vote will be better, because it doesn't mean the same thing it did before the vote.

So (I'm sure I've asked this before and didn't get a proper answer) what's your proof?


There's no evidence of anything about to change in the important (legal, economic) areas should we stay in EU. Law is law; everything else is speculation.

Should we speculate, though, the evidence so far is that EU is not an easily angered creature; even genuine menaces like Orban get seemingly infinite patience and appeasement. If we try to throw more hysterics and exceptionalism they may be just ignored with a "well you know the way out", but any hostility is very unlikely.


As I expected, no real answer at all.

The movers and shakers within the EU are pushing for all sorts of far reaching changes, from universal taxation regimes to EU armies.

Meanwhile, major economies are tanking (Germany, France, Italy) and yet, remainers would have us believe we should chain ourselves to the sinking ship, because it will benefit us how?
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Sister Sledge
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PostPosted: 09:48 - 16 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

We're definitely the naughty children of the classroom and will be punished somehow. I do agree that if we remain (I reckon an 80% certainty) we will be pushed/forced/bribed to join the Euro currency.
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stevo as b4
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PostPosted: 13:47 - 16 Nov 2019    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course we will. The Lib dems etc either haven't done their homework, or are like mpd said, intent on dragging us onto the sinking EU ship so we all drown together.

We need to get an advantage and strike out independent trade and business relationships with the big round world while we can. Its not about all this race to the bottom bollocks that Labour keep pedalling, but about forward thinking as a rich skilled nation that still has alot to offer, and allow the country to actually grow in a changing world, away from the dying dinosaur that is the EU in its current state.

They only have themselves to blame IMO, and EU economists must be seeing the impending darkness that they failed to have the vision and chance to avoid.
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