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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 22:26 - 28 Sep 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
Khan must be doing something right then.

Khant has nothing to do with it.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 22:31 - 28 Sep 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Switzerland referendum: Voters reject end to free movement with EU.
62:38. Fear of the economic impact? You can't have free trade without accepting all the EU's other rules. Well played, the EU. Confused

Also interesting that the Swiss are still conducting referenda (they voted on paternal leave, defence procurement and hunting laws at the same time) when Remainers had said the Swiss had learned that referenda were bad.


Interesting result that.
Switzerland is a prosperous country, and apparently tolerant, so I do wonder why refugees aren't going there instead of risking their lives by dingying to MPD's shores.
Maybe there's a war going on there that I'm not aware of.
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 01:50 - 29 Sep 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

bhinso wrote:
Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Switzerland referendum: Voters reject end to free movement with EU.
62:38. Fear of the economic impact? You can't have free trade without accepting all the EU's other rules. Well played, the EU. Confused

Also interesting that the Swiss are still conducting referenda (they voted on paternal leave, defence procurement and hunting laws at the same time) when Remainers had said the Swiss had learned that referenda were bad.


Interesting result that.
Switzerland is a prosperous country, and apparently tolerant, so I do wonder why refugees aren't going there instead of risking their lives by dingying to MPD's shores.
Maybe there's a war going on there that I'm not aware of.


I think it's the law there that you have to be a banker, jeweller or chocolatier. Laughing
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arry
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PostPosted: 08:25 - 29 Sep 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Today I'm having difficulty with interpreting this BBC piece on the Kent Access Permit - the permit all lorries over 7.5T WILL need in order to enter Kent after the transition period.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54260470

Now, at first glance I'd have said it's pretty clear isn't it? The headline:
Quote:
Brexit: Lorry drivers will need a permit to enter Kent after transition period.


Check Arrow

The first five paragraphs:
Quote:
Truck drivers will need a permit to enter Kent after the Brexit transition period ends, the government has said.

The announcement comes after a letter from cabinet minister Michael Gove warned that queues 7,000-trucks-long could clog up roads around the port of Dover and Channel Tunnel.

Speaking in the Commons, Mr Gove said the Kent Access Permit system would be enforced by police and ANPR cameras.

It is intended to ensure drivers have all the paperwork they need, he said.

Drivers of lorries weighing more than 7.5 tonnes will need to apply for the permits online and show that they have all the paperwork they need to ferry goods to Europe.


Check Arrow

So then, why is it that when I watched the actual speech from where this appears I found that Gove actually said (near enough verbatim):
Quote:
Reasonable worst case scenario planning ASSUMPTIONS.
Indicating what COULD happen.
Stress that this is not a prediction or forecast but a PRUDENT EXERCISE IN SETTING OUT WHAT COULD, in the WORST CIRCUMSTANCES, occur, IF we DON'T improve our deal.
It is clearly far better that everybody is aware NOW of what is needed to prepare rather than to face additional disruption next year and that's why we're publishing our reasonable worst case scenario NOW.



My understanding of that, in summary, is IF we DON'T get better terms THEN we COULD have a situation where a KAP is required. To my mind, that is NOT the same as Gove says it WILL be required irrespective of circumstances?

Paragraphs 6 and 7 of the BBC article gives the slightest inkling:
Quote:
Mr Gove, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, responsible for no-deal planning, wrote to logistics groups with the government's "reasonable worst-case scenario" planning for when the UK leaves the EU's single market and customs union rules on 1 January.

In that scenario, he said just half of big businesses and 20% of small businesses would be ready for the strict application of new EU requirements at the border.


But they make it sound like the two events are entirely divorced, eg the letter has gone out saying it could happen but since then they've decided it WILL happen. At the despatch box, what Gove said is pretty clear to my mind.

Seems to me the BBC have been rather disingenuous with their reporting here and have effectively predicated a No Deal situation and, therefore, are taking Worst Case Scenario as what's going to happen, and just chosen to report it that way regardless of its absence of certainty.

Thoughts? Am I reading that wrong?
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:35 - 29 Sep 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

arry wrote:

Seems to me the BBC have been rather disingenuous


How dare you!

Laughing
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 19:27 - 29 Sep 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

2159. Posted by myleftbraincell on 23 Sept 2020 13:58

We could admit our mistake and re-join.

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arry
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PostPosted: 09:36 - 01 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:

How dare you!

Laughing


I was seriously trying to gauge whether I'm reading it right, and whether anyone else had the same opinion. On another forum I've been told that it WILL happen because Gove said as much; and when I pointed out that he didn't, they said that he did because all of the ifs were certainties.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 10:46 - 01 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll tell you what IS a certainty. We just got a deal through with the US worth £66 million on exporting our beef to them. Can things get any worse?! Laughing
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 21:55 - 01 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
I'll tell you what IS a certainty. We just got a deal through with the US worth £66 million on exporting our beef to them. Can things get any worse?! Laughing


Will the EU have control on tariffs in this deal, a la that small print our lawyers forgot to read?

What I do find interesting is how some Remainers in that discussion thread think we could just change our mind and rejoin, as if we hadn't left: the EU would welcome us back.
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 10:59 - 02 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
I'll tell you what IS a certainty. We just got a deal through with the US worth £66 million on exporting our beef to them. Can things get any worse?! Laughing


About bloody time too. Hopefully I'll be able to find some grass fed beef now as Americans can't stand the taste and you can only find bland grain fed beef in the supermarkets. Not sure I can stretch to 66 million quid though...
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:28 - 02 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

mentalboy wrote:
chickenstrip wrote:
I'll tell you what IS a certainty. We just got a deal through with the US worth £66 million on exporting our beef to them. Can things get any worse?! Laughing


About bloody time too. Hopefully I'll be able to find some grass fed beef now as Americans can't stand the taste and you can only find bland grain fed beef in the supermarkets. Not sure I can stretch to 66 million quid though...


I shouldn't worry about it. If Biden Harris gets elected, the Dems will probably scrap the deal.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 22:13 - 02 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's been on the news that the EU have started legal action on the Internal market bill.

Apparently the EU are 'incenced'.

Brexit. lol
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 22:53 - 02 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good luck with that. It'll just descend into a slanging match about whose bad faith was the first and worst. And who will get to decide? Let me guess...it begins with ECJ Rolling Eyes

Rip up the WA! Very Happy
Not really any reason not to now.
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Shaft
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PostPosted: 02:49 - 03 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Slight mish mash of topics.

Lots of stuff doing the rounds about brexit uncertainty/Covid shizzle having a major effect on imports and exports from the EU, postal delays, trucks being held up, blah blah blah.

Bought a thing on Ebay 2pm Tuesday, located in Spain, turned up before lunch on Wednesday.

Next door company bought a lorry load of food stuffs from Holland on Thursday afternoon, truck was waiting for them when they came in at 8am Friday.

Is anyone really believing all this doom, gloom and despondency bull faeces?
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 11:16 - 03 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like I said, the economic meltdown caused by Covid restrictions and lockdowns will make any hiccups due to Brexit seem like small beer. Everyone will be desperate to trade after all this, politicians silly scheming notwithstanding. It's almost like they think they operate in a vacuum. Whatever trade restrictions they impose will be got around, legally or illegally.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 23:07 - 03 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Problems with the WA?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_lWgnezH2U
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Easy-X
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PostPosted: 13:38 - 04 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is this what it's all about? Utter destruction of Great Britain and the "Putin-style" annexation of Northern Ireland? In 20 years time are cunts Parisians gonna be sipping on an Espresso and reading about the refugees crossing the Channel in dinghies...

That's if they remember to cancel the Common Travel Area.

<addendum> the last time European nations got together to take economic revenge on a country was after WW1. That didn't play out well in the long run Shocked
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 13:52 - 04 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Remember that the EU still sees its role as one of punishing us in order to discourage other nations from wishing to leave - which of course no one else will want to, because the EU is such a wonderful thing.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 23:33 - 07 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cambridge Analytica cleared of misusing data in the Brexit referendum.
https://order-order.com/2020/10/07/cambridge-analytica-cleared-of-misusing-data-in-referendum/#comments

The same story rather more grudgingly told -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54457407
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 23:56 - 07 Oct 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kawasaki Jimbo wrote:
Cambridge Analytica cleared of misusing data in the Brexit referendum.
https://order-order.com/2020/10/07/cambridge-analytica-cleared-of-misusing-data-in-referendum/#comments

The same story rather more grudgingly told -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54457407


Huh. Confused

Quote:
'The report does highlight dodgy data practices from Cambridge Analytica, with the Commissioner writing “I have also confirmed my previous understanding about the poor data practices at the company, which, had they sought to continue trading, would likely have attracted further regulatory action against them by my office.” It’s clear Cambridge Analytica were shysters.Yet not ones who changed the outcome of the Brexit referendum. Guido can’t wait for Carole’s climbdown…

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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 23:57 - 11 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

It seems the EU is having problems with fisheries sustainability in the Mediterranean. The GCFM apparently is talking about cutting fishing hours for Med. fleets, and the French, Italians and Spanish are getting a bit antsy about it. I wonder where they'll want to make up for that lost fishing capacity? Thinking
Hands off!

Meanwhile, the UK has already negotiated fisheries deals including sustainability considerations with both Norway and Greenland. Macron note: negotiated, not demanded.
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mentalboy
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PostPosted: 03:50 - 12 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
It seems the EU is having problems with fisheries sustainability in the Mediterranean. The GCFM apparently is talking about cutting fishing hours for Med. fleets, and the French, Italians and Spanish are getting a bit antsy about it. I wonder where they'll want to make up for that lost fishing capacity? Thinking
Hands off!

Meanwhile, the UK has already negotiated fisheries deals including sustainability considerations with both Norway and Greenland. Macron note: negotiated, not demanded.


Has much been said in the mainstream outlets about the Japanese taking Bluefin off the Irish coast? My FB feed gets quite a lot of fishing related stuff, one of the joys of living in one Britain's largest fishing towns for twenty years. Locals seem to have a bee in their bonnet about the Tuna at the moment and seem to have quietened down on the usual French and Spanish infringements.
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chickenstrip
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PostPosted: 14:33 - 12 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you mean the Republic of Ireland, don't know, don't care, that's their business.
MSM? Don't know, don't care.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 22:31 - 12 Nov 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

chickenstrip wrote:
It seems the EU is having problems with fisheries sustainability in the Mediterranean.


Mediterranean eh?

Maybe the EU should invade Gibraltar.
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bhinso
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PostPosted: 22:12 - 10 Dec 2020    Post subject: Reply with quote

Starting to look like no-deal, although I still predict a last minute giving in to the EU.

The BBC is warning there WILL be disruptions, severe congestion, AIDS, racism, etc. etc.

Looks like the sticking point is still fishing rites. Apparently if we give in we'll be the only sovereign country getting pushed around in this way.
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