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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 08:01 - 30 Aug 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
UK government is set on depriving UK citizens of their FoM rights in order to deprive other EU citizens of FoM rights

Yes, Val. That's what leaving the EU means. It's what we voted for.

Are you confused? Surprised? Angry? Or just pointing out the obvious? It's hard to tell.
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Lupo
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PostPosted: 05:11 - 31 Aug 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
I can't see the Spanish saying "go home and stop spending your money here". I hope the UK will cut the benefits of all the Bulgarian and Romanian, football sized benefits families of pikies here though.


I can see it, first because if all Spanish people (around 100000) in the UK has to go back to Spain, then all British expats in Spain (the 300000 of them) are going back to the UK.
Anyway all those British pensioners do is clogg up our NHS because it offers a better service that the UK one, and right now, Spain has overbooking of tourism to the point that people is starting to get feisty about it.

By how negotiations are going and the present timeline, UK is heading for a hard exit or a last minute capitulation on the stuff that triggered the Brexit vote. Sounds silly but seems that the UK has not realised yet that the EU does not give a toss if it leaves the block.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 09:31 - 31 Aug 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lupo wrote:
the UK has not realised yet that the EU does not give a toss if it leaves the block.

Suuure, they're certainly acting like it.

https://i.imgur.com/r9YpqkS.png
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Lupo
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PostPosted: 15:23 - 31 Aug 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

The tourism problem is not about money, it is saturation and pushing people out as rents are going up because airbnb et al, spend a couple of days walking around Oxford Street in London and you will understand.

Lets not compare the Spanish people working and paying taxes in the UK to the UK pensioners that while you are right, their medical assistance gets paid back by EHIC, it does not cover the cost of infrastructure. And lets not get confused by English tourists and English residents in Spain.

That is the issue, UK wants their nationals to get all the rights in the EU but do not want to reciprocate. It fails to confront the fact that it cannot make a separate deal with Spain or any other country, for the simply fact that Spain is part of the EU so cannot negotiate on its own. From the EU point of view they cannot accept that the UK will admit some EU nationals while others not.

The starting points of the negotiation that are UK and EU nationals rights, the border with Ireland and the monies to be paid was agreed after much negotiation by all EU members, that needs to be sorted before any other negotiation takes place. If any of the 27 members of the EU are not happy with progress in those issues, they can stop the whole process.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 16:56 - 31 Aug 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lupo wrote:
UK wants their nationals to get all the rights in the EU but do not want to reciprocate.

I appreciate you bringing us this insider-information from personal knowledge of what's being discussed in the confidential negotiations.

However, just bear in mind that the internet isn't truly anonymous, so you may get in trouble if they find out that you've leaked it.

Careful now.
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Ste
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PostPosted: 17:13 - 31 Aug 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brexit means Brexit.

Soft Brexit is not Brexit.

The government isn't depriving UK citizens of their FoM rights in order to deprive other EU citizens of FoM rights. It doesn't mean that nobody will be allowed to travel, it just won't be an open door policy.

Shootey shootey.
Stabby stabby.
Exploding suicide bombs.
Trucks of peace (which aren't made from tape).

In other news, Theresa May has been getting chummy with Japan. Smile
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 18:17 - 31 Aug 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shouldn't you be doxxxing in the General / Edinburgh thread?

Anyway, good news, everyone's favourite war criminal Tony Blair has rocked up to save the day.

https://i.imgur.com/zm5bZsz.png

"Just good friends", apparently.

Junkers will have had the Wine Goggles on, but what's Blair's excuse?
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Ste
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PostPosted: 18:38 - 31 Aug 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doxxing who what where now?
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 18:43 - 31 Aug 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
Doxxing who what where now?

End of https://www.bikechatforums.com/viewtopic.php?t=313405&start=50

Don't, obviously.

That would be prejudicial and mean and not in the BCF spirit.
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Val
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PostPosted: 23:07 - 31 Aug 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ste wrote:
Brexit means Brexit.

Soft Brexit is not Brexit.

The government isn't depriving UK citizens of their FoM rights in order to deprive other EU citizens of FoM rights. It doesn't mean that nobody will be allowed to travel, it just won't be an open door policy.

Shootey shootey.
Stabby stabby.
Exploding suicide bombs.
Trucks of peace (which aren't made from tape).

In other news, Theresa May has been getting chummy with Japan. Smile


It never has been open door policy. There is a border you know. 5700 EU citizens has been stopped to enter the UK last year.

You guys drink too much sake. Fact:

https://i.imgur.com/eI5y8s0.jpg
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Lupo
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PostPosted: 01:15 - 01 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
I appreciate you bringing us this insider-information from personal knowledge of what's being discussed in the confidential negotiations.

However, just bear in mind that the internet isn't truly anonymous, so you may get in trouble if they find out that you've leaked it.

Careful now.


Good point, no problem for the UK to sacrifice their Expats rights if they can get a better deal on something else, like trade or not paying any monies.

@mpd72

Actually UK citizens retiring in Spain did start to really grow around that date, but I agree with you and it was my point from the start, that the UK is going for a hard exit. Blame it on the incompetence of the EU or the UK, it does not matter.

On the other hand both sides are claiming that once 2019 comes, everything should be done to avoid disruption to actual relationships, so not sure how to read that.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 06:49 - 01 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lupo wrote:
the UK is going for a hard exit.

A real exit.

The UK is leaving the European Union.

Things that were the same will now be different.


Lupo wrote:
On the other hand both sides are claiming that once 2019 comes, everything should be done to avoid disruption to actual relationships, so not sure how to read that.

I'm not sure where you're reading that.

Perhaps you'd like to share your secret sauce.
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Lupo
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PostPosted: 12:18 - 01 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reuters: "However, both he and British Brexit Secretary David Davis spoke of a constructive attitude on both sides aimed at avoiding disruption when Britain leaves the bloc, deal or no deal, in 19 months time."

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-negotiations/eu-keeps-up-brexit-talks-pressure-davis-signals-cash-offer-idUKKCN1BB0TA

Not sure how to interpret that.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 14:42 - 01 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd interpret it as empty platitudes.

At this point, I can only see two ways to avoid uncertainty and get things done by March 2019.

Arrow Immediate and complete capitulation to all of Brussels' demands, followed by accepting any deal that they choose to offer, if they choose to offer one.

Arrow Revoke the 1972 ECA act now, and begin the process of preparing Britain for WTO rules and visa-limited travel.

This farce of a "negotiation" is just wasting time. The longer it goes on, the clearer it becomes that the goal is delaying Brexit for long enough to fiddle the demographics for a 2nd referendum.
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jjdugen
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PostPosted: 15:34 - 01 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not so much platitudes, Rog. Seems to me that the EU is REALLY windy about losing our contribution, i.e., its a about the money. Maybe their finances are even shakier than I thought....
Same goes for freedom of movement, we do seem to be soaking up a lot of their spare 'skilled craftsmen' (and women, mustn't be sexist).
I know the British negotiators are barging around like a Bull in a (dark) China shop, but there does seem to be a marked reluctance on their part to begin anything substantive. Roll on the next referendum / election / revolution.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 15:51 - 01 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Saw a piece on the news with someone being interviewed (posh bloke if that helps), who was of the opinion that you don't pay for anything beyond the date you've left. The EU seem to think otherwise.

It's a bit like getting divorced, then going on holiday together because you previously said you would.
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Lupo
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PostPosted: 20:49 - 02 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seems a transitional period is now a thing.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-labour/opposition-to-push-for-soft-brexit-changes-to-eu-repeal-bill-the-times-idUKKCN1BD0NI
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Val
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PostPosted: 14:54 - 05 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyhow the UK government is proposing to pay 8 times more than the UK currently pays for been in the EU science programs.

The UK is ready to pay around £1bn to remain part of the European Union's science and research:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/technology/science/news/88677/uk-preparing-pay-%C2%A31bn-stay-eu-science-programme

Having said that there are few points here which needs resolving before the EU will even start considering this and many other offers that will come.

Regarding this proposal pretty sure it will depend on future FoM agreement. Last time the Swiss tried to get out of FoM all EU science programs with Swiss have been suspended.

Not to mention billion here and there and the UK will end up as paying more than now. And having absolutely the same terms except any vote in the EU.
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Johnnythefox
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PostPosted: 15:11 - 05 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Val wrote:
Anyhow the UK government is proposing to pay 8 times more than the UK currently pays for been in the EU science programs.

The UK is ready to pay around £1bn to remain part of the European Union's science and research:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/technology/science/news/88677/uk-preparing-pay-%C2%A31bn-stay-eu-science-programme

Having said that there are few points here which needs resolving before the EU will even start considering this and many other offers that will come.

Regarding this proposal pretty sure it will depend on future FoM agreement. Last time the Swiss tried to get out of FoM all EU science programs with Swiss have been suspended.

Not to mention billion here and there and the UK will end up as paying more than now. And having absolutely the same terms except any vote in the EU.



We get rather more back than one billion so of course we want to stay in it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25961243
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Johnnythefox
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PostPosted: 15:54 - 05 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

'EVERYONE wants a trade deal with Britain' - EU shamed over Icelandic minister claims.

THE UK is one of the biggest economies and “everyone” will want to do a trade deal with Britain after it has left the European Union, a government minister from Iceland said.

It’s quite clear when Britain wants to negotiate its own free trade deals then everyone wants to make a free trade with Britain.

“You’re the fifth largest economy in the world.

Mr Thordarson reiterated that free trade did not need to end because Britain voted to leave the European Union.
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ScaredyCat
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PostPosted: 19:04 - 05 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

M.C wrote:
Saw a piece on the news with someone being interviewed (posh bloke if that helps), who was of the opinion that you don't pay for anything beyond the date you've left. The EU seem to think otherwise.


If you sign up to a contract but don't add "as long as we're still in the EU" to the T's&C's because nobody thought you'd leave, then you'd still be held to the terms of the contract.

M.C wrote:
It's a bit like getting divorced, then going on holiday together because you previously said you would. paying maintenance.


FTFY Thumbs Up
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Val
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PostPosted: 21:38 - 05 Sep 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just read carefully the "leaked" government plans to end FoM and deter EU migrants. I bet the document has been leaked by the government themselves in order to appease the leavers with some beating in the chest:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/sep/05/leaked-document-reveals-uk-brexit-plan-to-deter-eu-immigrants

IHGNFY - it is all posturing and no actual substance.Zilch.

tldr; It is the old same freedom of movement if the EU citizens will still use ePassport border control.

And EU citizens still can come here looking for job or have the right to bring relatives. Slight change from the current system not if the relative is the 3rd cousin of your aunt. Boo-hoo Laughing

The only difference between this and how Switzerland for example have currently implemented FoM is you need a passport to enter UK. You can enter Switzerland with EU ID card.

Also the Swiss system is much robust. They actually have working permit registration system. And you have 7 days to register in the system or you'll be fined. The UK has or plans to have nothing of sort.

So basically the whole thing UK plan has been created tto throw some dust in the eyes of leavers.

Otherwise it is still good old incompetent Home Office - looking busy doing nothing.
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