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Brexit: What do you think will happen?

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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 12:52 - 07 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ribenapigeon wrote:
There's an apparent complexity to brexit its starting to give an impression it will be impossible to really enact. We could still be discussing it in ten years time.


Hardly, it was created by humans and it will be adapted by humans.

I don't see an issue continuously adapting our trade policy, it's what most sovereign countries do, and it keep's mp's doing actual real things, rather than debating horsehit like banning Trump and the sugar tax.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 13:13 - 07 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brexit could be achieved de facto by repealing the 1972 Act and then doing whatever we want, while the Euros get on with impotent blustering. Anything beyond that is politicians, diplomats and bureaucrats inventing work for themselves.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 17:30 - 08 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rob Fzs wrote:
Ribenapigeon wrote:
There's an apparent complexity to brexit its starting to give an impression it will be impossible to really enact. We could still be discussing it in ten years time.


Hardly, it was created by humans and it will be adapted by humans.

I don't see an issue continuously adapting our trade policy, it's what most sovereign countries do, and it keep's mp's doing actual real things, rather than debating horsehit like banning Trump and the sugar tax.


Prior to Maastricht, I was a clerk working on import export and the rules are huge and nightmarish. From the books we had at the time, I'd guess agreements took 10 - 20 years to get into place and even then, there were lots of issues. Some of the issues were outside the scope of the trade agreements and were political, for example anti-dumping regs.

From recollection, I would expect a single agreement with a single country to run to around 100,000 words with a mishmash of documents, some of which directly contradicted each other. They were all different and even the translations used (e.g. Spanish into French versus Spanish into English) meant there were different interpretations for the same rules, all of which stopped business. On top of that, at the time, countries adopted GATT (WTO rules now) so we'd sometimes be working on two different sets of rules, no-one really knowing how they'd apply.

To be fair, most of the rules didn't apply on a day-to-day basis and we used little 'quick reference' books with the stuff we needed to know on a daily basis.

So 10 years isn't unreasonable I think but I don't know. I was just a clerk at the time.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 18:35 - 08 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
[Pencil pushers like things to be the same today as they were yesterday]

Tomorrow's yesterday will be today. What change will they resist then?
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struan80
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PostPosted: 19:04 - 08 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meh Brexit. Will have no affect on any of us minions....If you're a business man and a capitalistic twat then your likely to make money from Brexit regardless of currency moving up or down. wankers!

The pound will always remain valuable simply because it is the British currency.
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 22:47 - 08 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:
gorillaonabike wrote:


Prior to Maastricht, I was a clerk working on import export and the rules are huge and nightmarish. From the books we had at the time, I'd guess agreements took 10 - 20 years to get into place and even then, there were lots of issues. Some of the issues were outside the scope of the trade agreements and were political, for example anti-dumping regs.

From recollection, I would expect a single agreement with a single country to run to around 100,000 words with a mishmash of documents, some of which directly contradicted each other. They were all different and even the translations used (e.g. Spanish into French versus Spanish into English) meant there were different interpretations for the same rules, all of which stopped business. On top of that, at the time, countries adopted GATT (WTO rules now) so we'd sometimes be working on two different sets of rules, no-one really knowing how they'd apply.

To be fair, most of the rules didn't apply on a day-to-day basis and we used little 'quick reference' books with the stuff we needed to know on a daily basis.

So 10 years isn't unreasonable I think but I don't know. I was just a clerk at the time.


Your experience with Trotters Independant Traders really has given you an expert insight into what will happen post Brexit.

I mean, nothing like Brexit has ever happened before and clearly the U.K. Can't survive post Brexit like it did pre 1992, but May is missing a trick not having you on board. Smile

Imagine it trade existed outside of the EU? How crazy would that be?


It already does. Or did you not realise that?
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 23:57 - 08 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just loving the number of bites I'm getting, TBH.

For someone who self-certifies as sarcastic, you really do miss the bait put out sometimes.
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M.C
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PostPosted: 01:27 - 09 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can you two keep it to your love topic? We're trying to solve the worlds issues here Folded arms
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 09:14 - 09 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we ever do get control of our borders again, I'd suggest that we do something to keep out mad-eyed Romanian spongers who skip out on bailiffs and tell women that they are "not equal" and will be "sorted out".

Truly, the poster baghead for freedom of movement.
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Rob Fzs
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PostPosted: 13:22 - 09 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would of thought for tax hungry politicians, having migrants coming here that are in highly paid jobs would be the main idea of immigration control, how many more shit house cleaners do we need?

They might actually have an excuse for mass migration then , but at the moment we're just standing still on the treadmill
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 14:59 - 09 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Tories let them in because their chums want easily exploitable cheap labour, and it keeps the proles from getting uppity. See 0 hours contracts / Sports Direct stylee operations.

Labour let them in because they tend to vote socialist. And because post Boater-Boy Bliar, they're just as chummy with the same magnates.
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 05:55 - 11 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

mpd72 wrote:

I mean, nothing like Brexit has ever happened before...


Hold on a second - I've just realised something. You think that Brexit is new and WTO rules are new!

The UK used to trade under WTO rules, only back in the day they were called GATT and the basis for import / export regs countries were using in the 80s and 90s.

Back when I was working on this, WTO / GATT rules meant all businesses paid big money (tariffs, lawyers, clerks etc...) when exporting and delivery of goods was disrupted due to border controls and politics. There were zero free trade blocks back then. Everyone had the same disadvantages.

Today, it's completely different. There are big, global trade blocks allowing free or almost free trade such as... the EU. If we Brexit and drop out, everyone else in the EU has free trade whereas our manufacturers will have exports blocked by customs and be priced out of markets through tariffs. Ditto international markets because WTO rules aren't the solution - they're the problem.

And this is the most favourable, possible scenario... i.e. if we get to adopt WTO rules.
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 09:47 - 11 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yet again, you're assuming that we won't retain access to the EEA / EFTA. "No special rules, no special rules!", squawk the apparatchiks from their sprout-holes. The only response required is to point at Turkey.

gorillaonabike wrote:
And this is the most favourable, possible scenario... i.e. if we get to adopt WTO rules.

What are the worse scenarios?
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gorillaonabik...
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PostPosted: 00:52 - 17 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
Yet again, you're assuming that we won't retain access to the EEA / EFTA. "No special rules, no special rules!", squawk the apparatchiks from their sprout-holes. The only response required is to point at Turkey...


So you were squawking / saying...?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/16/theresa-may-set-12-point-plan-brexit-vows-clean-break-does-not/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/16/theresa-may-to-confirm-uk-exit-from-eu-single-market-speech
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Jewlio Rides Again LLB
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PostPosted: 01:23 - 17 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lol

Enjoy the tax hikes to pay for the increased prices in maintaining the military kit, because of the normalisation and unwillingness to change spec Laughing
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 09:56 - 17 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

gorillaonabike wrote:
[Politicians always tell the absolute truth, particularly Remoaner Sharia May]

Well, I see she's belatedly read Trump's Art of the Deal, and is attempting to start from a strong negotiating position. Remember, the Krauts need us to be in more than we do.

I suppose that might have been useful 4 months ago when she still had some credibility and authority or ability to trigger Article 50, but bless her bondage pants for trying.

Nixed by the courts or Parliament in 3... 2...
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 19:19 - 17 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://digitalspyuk.cdnds.net/16/33/480x240/landscape-1471256782-clarkson-being-a-smug-twat.gif

https://digitalspyuk.cdnds.net/16/33/480x240/landscape-1471256782-clarkson-being-a-smug-twat.gif

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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 19:22 - 17 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jewlio Rides Again wrote:
Lol

Enjoy the tax hikes to pay for the increased prices in maintaining the military kit, because of the normalisation and unwillingness to change spec Laughing


That ok we can find the money from the foreign aid budget.

https://digitalspyuk.cdnds.net/16/33/480x240/landscape-1471256782-clarkson-being-a-smug-twat.gif
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Im-a-Ridah
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PostPosted: 19:24 - 17 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jewlio Rides Again wrote:
Just loving the number of bites I'm getting, TBH.

For someone who self-certifies as sarcastic, you really do miss the bait put out sometimes.


Brexit winners, remoanian losers

https://digitalspyuk.cdnds.net/16/33/480x240/landscape-1471256782-clarkson-being-a-smug-twat.gif
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Rogerborg
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PostPosted: 20:10 - 17 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^^
Beats me. The usual strategy is to get all the revolting types onto committees so that the result is their fault. However, you can't really negotiate with the Hun by committee (or with anything short of a 17 pounder). It'll just be a list of demands, or better yet, revoke the 1972 Act, we're out, auf wiedersehen, call us if you want anything, Jerry.

Im-a-Ridah wrote:
https://digitalspyuk.cdnds.net/16/33/480x240/landscape-1471256782-clarkson-being-a-smug-twat.gif

You know Clarkson is a Remoaner, right? Disappointingly, May as well. We're not leaving "Europe", you porky prats.
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Kawasaki Jimbo
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PostPosted: 21:32 - 17 Jan 2017    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerborg wrote:
we're out, auf wiedersehen, call us if you want anything, Jerry.

I've only heard selected snippets of the speech via the relentlessly Remain BBC but I thought the Prime Minister said exactly that. Smart woman. By the time MPs have a vote (2 years) it'll be too late to go back and they'll know it. I don't think they'll want to go back at that stage anyway (-except Nick Clegg, the BBC's favourite Remoaner).

What with the Labour leader's preference for Opposition (easier), the Lib Dems having shown themselves to be hopeless and the lobby group known as UKIP having nothing more to offer, I might even end up voting Conservative at this rate! My secret shame. Embarassed (No, I couldn't do it. None of the above, then. Sad )
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